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Election 2020: Biden’s lead persists

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes
Mean of 174 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

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Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:

Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition

True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics

Biden—Harris 2020:

Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”

Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?

Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it

The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:

Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct

Seth Meyers: Back in my day….

Vox: Why American public transit is so bad

Superspreading ТрампPlague:

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread!

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Did you catch the big debate last night? I did. It made me glad that I already voted for Marko Liias. Oh, was there another debate?

Seriously, the Lieutenant Governor debate last night was gloriously dull. It wasn’t too much of a contrast between the bearded monotone Democrats. Heck tried to talk about being an outsider (DC and the private sector) while also touting his time in the legislature and as Booth Gardner’s Chief of Staff. Liias was more focused on his legislative record. Either would be good in the job.

The moderators were less impressive. Maybe there aren’t an hour of questions for the position. Still the first 2 questions were about Republican voters and how will you work with Republicans in the legislature. There was no equivalent question about Democratic voters, despite the fact that we are a lot more of the state.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Election 2020: Biden maintains a solid lead…still

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes
Mean of 177 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

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Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

Monday Open Thread

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Great job, King County. We’re smashing all sorts of records for early voting. I don’t know if this presages higher turnout or if it will taper off. Maybe people are worried about the Post Office so they’re dropping their ballots in the boxes rather than the mail?

No matter what, please seal your ballot with a sponge and wash your hands.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies

Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Biden—Harris 2020:

SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.

Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.

Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday

The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:

Vox: How the next president could change policing.

The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate

Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.

TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:

The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.

Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman

SCOTUS Tragedy:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread

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Tim Eyman’s latest garbage car tabs initiative is unconstitutional. At this point he must know not to do a multiple issues initiative. Like have a lawyer look it over. Or don’t, since Eyman gets to keep fundraising on the same initiative and agencies get to keep their car tab money.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Election 2020: Stable race with a solid lead for Biden

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes
Mean of 175 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open Thread Friday, October 9

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I listened to the gubernatorial debate while doing dishes. Now, a day late, here’s my impressions.

Jay Inslee was a bit off his game on a few issues. Western State Hospital desertification in particular. But he was pretty good overall.

Culp was something else. From flirting with conspiracy theories about the wildfires to saying he would have sent the National Guard with guns to the East Precinct protest, Culp was scary. Please don’t vote for him.

And please do wash your hands right now.

Election 2020: Biden still leads

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 366 electoral votes
Mean of 172 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.

Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.

Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.

Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.

North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:

Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:

Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]

Wednesday Open Thread

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Are you ready for debates tonight? Well tough shit, we’re going to have Vice Presidential and gubernatorial debates. I already know who I am voting for, but I will probably tune in. Will Culp manage to sell himself in any way, or if he comes across as awful as his policies.

But before the debates, in fact right now, you should go wash your hands.

Election 2020: Senate Races

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats
Mean of 46 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.

This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.

Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

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