act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden’s “Despacito” outreach & Трамп’s disastrous town hall
• Now This: Former Pence staffer slams Трамп and endorses Biden
• Randy Rainbow: I won’t vote Трамп!

• WaPo: Democrats flipped the House in 2018. Can they keep it in 2020?
• The Daily Show: Трамп Eviscerates Трамп
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Bring back hope
• Stephen: Трамп lied to undecided voters at Philadelphia town hall, then shared a doctored video of Joe Biden
• Foundation Singers: If you love this country:

• Seth Meyers: Stacey Abrams has a plan to make sure every vote counts
• Trevor: Sen. Jon Tester on how to get rural voters to support Biden
• Samantha Bee: Work those poles

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

• Now This: Legendary Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87
• WaPo: Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87—Remembering her life and career
• New York Times: Remembering Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Meidas Touch: Demand decency.
• Really American: No new justices
• Bill Maher on RGB
• WaPo: What Senate Republicans have said about filling a Supreme Court vacancy
• Now This: Joe Biden on filling RBG’s Supreme Court Seat

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s many contradictions are revealed on Bob Woodward’s audio tapes
• Trevor: Author Mychal Denzel Smith on how to recover from Трамп
• Stephen: Трамп says “I do” to Joe Rogan’s debate challenge, but will he accept Stephen’s counter offer?
• John Di Domenico: Exploding trees, science doesn’t know and wet, deep water in the Pacific
• act.tv: FAUX News really does run Трамп and his presidency…and then he goes golfing
• Trevor: Трамп disowns blue states & AG Barr says slavery is back
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп knows more than science
• The Protest Films: No more Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard ends the 1619 Project!
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп called out by Jack Frost
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• The Late Show: A concussed panda replaces Steve Doocy on FAUX & Friends
• WaPo: How Bill Barr has misled the public under Трамп
• Daily Show: Don Трамп the science-ish guy: Wildfires
• The Late Show: Secret recipe revealed for Трамп’s dry-aged health care bill
• SongBird: The ten Трамп commandments (A Трамп parody)
• Stephen: Трамп denies climate science in fire-scarred California, echoing his downplaying of COVID-19
• Meidas Touch: Pedo Трамп
• The Late Show: Real Americans challenge The Dotard Трамп with questions we all wish we could ask
• Jimmy Fallon: New episode of “Talk like Трамп”
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• PrioritiesUSA: “America first”
• Conan: The Трамп “Book of the Day” club.
• Mark Fiore: Denialism—Not just for climate change anymore
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп lets Woodward know he’s a horrible guy:

• Meidas Touch: The Трамп depression—The economy does better under the Democrats
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп wishes a happy Rosh Hashanah
• WaPo: How Трамп repeatedly disparages climate science
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s ABC town hall was filled with lies
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп Jr. inspires Middle Ages torture device
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds indoor Nevada rally as pandemic and wildfires rage
• Now This: The Dotard suggests COVID-19 deaths in blue states shouldn’t count
• Really American: Трамп wants to infect us
• Bill Maher: Herd mentality
• Francesca Fiorentini: American individualism is killing us
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is enraged over Barack Obama’s new book
• Roll Call: Four takeaways from Redfield’s COVID-19 testimony
• Trevor: Travel in the time of coronavirus
• Meidas Touch: Трамп lied 200K died
• Bruce W. Nelson: Keep calm and covid on! (Трамп’s most profound thoughts to avoid panicking)
• Lewis Black’s survival guide for New Yorkers stuck in suburbia
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп on vaccine, and covid-19 deaths
• Lauren Mayer: Herd mentality:

• Really American: Трамп hid the truth
• Seth Meyers: Трамп blames “blue states” for COVID deaths
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys covid in Nevada speech
• Stephen: Трамп blames blue states for covid death rate while Bill Barr compares lockdowns to slavery
• Jonathan Mann: Anti-mask rally in St. George, Utah (remix)
• Meidas Touch: Experts vs. The Dotard—Трамп is a one trick phony
• Trevor: Трамп’s illegal indoor rally & a COVID-positive college party
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Eric & Don Jr. invent a COVID-19 vaccine
• PrioritiesUSA: Responsibility

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes	Mean of 149 electoral votes

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Bill Maher: Side with teacher.

Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Anyone But That S.O.B. (sneaky old blob) A song of nonsupport.
• Samantha Bee: Sam’s election day countdown
• The New Yorker: How national crises influenced three American elections
• Meidas Touch: America needs Biden
• Now This: Kamala Harris and Barack Obama talk life on the campaign trail

Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.

Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience

The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:

• Bruce W. Nelson: If DeJoy goes to de jail
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on his Nobel Peace Prize nomination
• Mark Fiore: The Трамп troops
• Seth Meyers: Трамп lashes out over report that he insulted fallen soldiers
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence says Трамп LOVES the troops
• Parody Project: Battle of Lake Travis:

• Trevor: Peter Strzok on is book about Трамп
• John Di Domenico: I like boaters who don’t sink, press briefing
• Lauren Mayer: Rock bottom has a basement
• Vote Vets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп calling general officers & admirals “fucking pussies”
• Robert Reich: The real threat to law and order
• Amber Ruffin: What Трамп has done for the military
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Bob Woodward
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Ballad of the Lake Travis Regatta
• Trevor: Трамп and FAUX News double down on COVID cover-up defense
• Bill Maher: Peter Strzok on “Compromised”
• The Democrats: Sacrifice
• James Corden: Трамп’s Twitter weirdness
• J-L Cauvin: Devastated Dotard Трамп blames Bob Woodward and MBS!!!
• Meidas Touch: DJT has NPD—Трамп’s malignant narcissism exposed:

• Really American: Трамп hates our troops.
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп practices his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech
• VoteVets: POW
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп insults Barack Obama impersonator!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s radical right
• SongBird: Vlad guy—A Трамп parody
• Bruce W. Nelson: Dear Kim Jong-un (A Трамп love song)
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).

Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!

ТрампPlague:

• Roy Wood, Jr.: How big tobacco turns a pandemic into profit
• Now This: Трамп’s bizarre mask psychopathology
• WaPo: The Dotard downplayed the coronavirus 31 times in the first three months of 2020
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s politicization of the COVID-19 vaccine
• VoteVets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп failing to lead on COVID 19
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain doesn’t think COVID killed him!
• Priorities USA: Cover-up
• Now This: Woodward audio leak—Трамп knowingly downplayed “deadly” coronavirus
• Trevor: How soon is too soon for a coronavirus vaccine?
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп lied to public about coronavirus
• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds unhinged North Carolina rally without coronavirus precautions
• Samantha Bee: Is it vaccine season, yet?
• Our Cartoon President: Leaked cartoon Трамп Woodward tapes:

• Meidas Touch: Pretend President—Трамп downplayed the pandemic
• Minute Physics: Why masks work BETTER than you’d think
• Vox: How the pandemic distorted time
• Broke Boy: Трамп tapes (Analyzing Bob Woodward audio)
• Really American: Трамп doesn’t care
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the GOP rocked by bombshell Woodward tapes
• WaPo: Republicans dodge Woodward-Трамп revelations
• Now This: Трамп supporters on why they didn’t wear masks to rally
• Priorities USA: Mask
• Bruce W. Nelson: Cabin fever
• Allana Harkin: Quarantine Questions—Back-to-school edition

Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Samantha Bee: How marginalizing women’s health created a market for pseudoscience products.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Now This: Трамп’s RNC speech had one false statements every 56 seconds
• WaPo: Трамп promises to end the lawlessness that he promised to end in 2016
• The Late Show: Biden impresses Presidential Gnome
• Conan: The Republican party’s rising stars
• br0keb0i: Biden proves he will destroy weak Dotard in the debates
• Full Frontal: Election night simulation—What happens in a contested election?
• Now This: Joe Biden destroys Трамп’s campaign of law and order
• Meidas Touch: I’m voting for Joe
• Courtney Jaye: I will be voting
• Robert Reich reacts to the RNC
• Now This: Biden tells Трамп to get off Twitter and start negotiating.

Jimmy Dore: Putin takes credit for defeating Kennedy dynasty!

The Dotard Трамп and Other Pimps, Grifters, and Corrupt Bastards:

• Jordan Klepper: How holy is The Dotard Трамп?
The Dotard declares war on soup!!!
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Dotard Трамп cannot play the guitar!
• Meidas Touch: Draft dodger Don hates our troops
• br0keb0i: Weak Dotard shows new signs of incompetence
• The Late Show: William Shakespeare describes Tucker Carlson
• Parody Project: Arrest this scary gentleman (A tale of the Postmaster)

• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant—Rioters, looters, agitators, anarchists & thugs on ANTIFA Airlines flight to Portland
• WaPo: How Трамп’s reported military comments mirror his previous remarks
• Really American: Twitter CENSORS Polluter-in-chief
• Now This: AG Barr defends Трамп after suggesting supporters vote twice
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп offered Sarah Huckabee Sanders to Kim Jong Un!
• Bruce W. Nelson: As long as the band plays, I’ve gotta dance
• Trevor: Трамп’s great USPS war
• Meidas Touch: Трамп terrorism
• Don Winslow Films: An open letter to Republicans
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain is still tweeting!
• br0keb0i: Трамп strokes getting worse (mental health deteriorating)
• Lauren Mayer: Occam’s razor
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп demands loyalty from Brett Kavanaugh!
• Bruce W. Nelson: What Трамп has taught to me (a patriotic tribute)
• Really American: In Трамп’s America
• BuzzFeed: How K-Pop stans uutsmarted The Dotard
• Now This: Трамп calls fallen U.S. troops “losers” and “suckers”
• VoteVets: Losing!
• Foundation Singers: Dumb American:

• The Late Show: Don Jr. erupts on FAUX News
• Bruce W. Nelson: “What will people say of Dotard Трамп when he is gone?”
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s mental unhealth with Dr. Bandy Lee
• Now This: Retired Army Major General Paul Eaton slams Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard attacks and insults the troops
• VoteVets: Gold Stars

Now This: Pastor speaks out on voter suppression in the Hispanic community

Racism in America

• John Oliver: RNC 2020 & Kenosha
• Now This: Who is Laura Loomer? Narrated by PJ Evans.
• Vox: What Black Lives Matter means to an 11-year-old
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 2
• Really American: Violent Трамп
• Jonathan Mann: Трамп soup remix
• Now This: 2020 DNC v. RNC on racial justice

Robert Reich: How Big Money corrupts our politics (and how to fix it).

ТрампPlague:

• WaPo: What is phase 3, and how close are we to a covid-19 vaccine?
• Now This: Трамп pushes COVID-19 conspiracy theory
• Vice News: Experts tell us what we do and don’t know about COVID-19
• Roll Call: People without insurance could pay for a vaccine more than once
• Mark Fiore: The doctor is so in
• Trevor: Coronavirus updates
• The New York Times: How to stop the next pandemic

The New Yorker: Greenland thrives after Трамп tried to buy the island

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Late Show: The Jerry Falwell Jr. scandal is giving pool boys a bad name.

Samantha Bee: The Republican party’s fall look—Fringe!

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Trevor: The RNC is already insane
• The Late Show: Kimberly Guilfoyle is crowned Miss Fascism 2020
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews Mike Pence’s RNC 2020 speech
• James Corden: What an uplifting first night at the RNC!
• br0keb0i: Kimberly Guilfoyle down with the sickness
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Biden will bring America back”
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence gets personal at the 2020 RNC
• Full Frontal: RNC 2016 rewind—Allana talks to attendees about misogyny
• Trevor: Pence packs an impressive amount of bullshit into his RNC speech
• Now This: Some of the biggest lies of the RNC
• Meidas Touch: End the misery (The misery index)
• The Late Show: The Трамп family sings the ABCs of the RNC
• Jaboukie Young-White: This 19-year-old went full MAGA
• Daily Show: RNC night 1—Here’s how you will die
• Stephen: RNC Day 1
• The Late Show: Great moments in convention history—Clint Eastwood’s 2012 RNC speech chair claps back
• Trevor: Getting to know Kamala Harris
• Full Frontal: RNC 2016 rewind–Mike helps free the beast
• Jimmy Dore: Mike Pompeo preparing to run for president in 2024!:

• Bruce W. Nelson: KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE! (The RNC’s new sonic weapon)
• Now This: Terror! Mayhem! Disaster! Four nights of RNC fear-mongering
• Trevor: Melania, Tiffany and Eric take the RNC stage on day 2
• The Late Show: A penguin hatches every time Melania says something that is definitely not true
• VoteVets: Secret weapon Jill
• Trevor: Трамп’s Boring-Ass RNC Speech
• Stephen: Melania Трамп headlines RNC night 2
• Full Frontal reacts to the RNC
• Mark Fiore: Nominating Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews Трамп at the RNC
• Meidas Touch: Demand change
• The Daily Show: Are Republicans talking about the DNC or RNC?
• Trevor: The RNC’s appeal to Black voters & Don Jr.’s “Imagine” speech
• Now This: RNC speakers take fear-mongering to next level on third night
• Lauren Mayer: Flatter the Führer
• The Late Show: Melania Трамп previews her RNC Rose Garden speech
• Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week—RNC edition
• Stephen: I didn’t watch the RNC tonight, and I feel great about it
• VoteVets: The first….
• Songify the News: Father, father:

• Full Frontal: Allana Harkin reacts to the DNC
• br0keb0i: The American dream—Kids in cages
• Now This: False Planned Parenthood claims from RNC 2020
• The Late Show: Jesus crashes Mike Pence’s RNC speech
• Jonathan Mann: The best is yet to come (Kimberly Guilfoyle RNC remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Melania’s RNC speech
• schmoyoho: Do it for corn pop—Joe Biden
• Trevor and Desi Lydic: FAUX News praises Biden’s DNC speech (and criticizes Kamala Harris’s speech)!
• The Late Show: America Endgame (RNC edition)
• Now This: Fact checking Mike Pence’s RNC speech
• The Daily Show: Asking Republicans, “When was America great?”
• Stephen: After four nights of nonsense at the RNC, we’re getting off this emotional roller coaster
• The Late Show: Tooning Out The News RNC highlights

Trevor: What is QAnon?

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Fake Christian of the week—Jerry Falwell, Jr.

Bill Maher: American carnage

The Dotard Трамп and Other Grifters, Liars, and Cheaters:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s a sick man
• Really American: Трамп talks Трамп
• Bill Maher: New Rule—#FreeUpTheMail
• The Daily Show: The Dotard Трамп—“The greatest President of all time in history”
• John Di Domenico: Трамп is FURIOUS over Maryanne Трамп’s leaked audio, calling him a self-centered, unprincipled, liar
• Bruce W. Nelson: I just can’t wait until the date Трамп’s party turns to dust
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpsZombieArmy
• Trevor: Трамп’s sister caught talking shit & Трамп bullies the FDA
• thejuicemedia: Honest government ad:

• Really American: Трамп hires the “best”
• Robert Reich: The Post Office crisis to come
• Trevor: The Lincoln Project’s Stuart Stevens on the evolution of the GOP under Трамп
• Don Winslow Films: #TheRealKellyanneConway
• The Late Show: Great moments in convention history—Трамп’s dramatic entrance at the 2016 RNC
• Really American: Polluter in chief
• br0keb0i: The Fourth Reich—Трамп’s dictatorship
• Meidas Touch: Bye Eric—A total phony
• J-L Cauvin: How The Dotard Трамп met Melania—An RNC romance
• Foundation Singers: We are the worst—Sing/swing remix
• Bruce W. Nelson: I like Трамп:

• Jonathan Mann: Uh oh, Melania Трамп ruined the Rose Garden
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Daddy prays for Eric every night”
• Stephen: Jerry Falwell Jr.’s link to Трамп is far more troubling than his sex scandal
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 40 biggest broken promises revealed
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Jim Gaffigan’s Twitter attacks!
• John Oliver: The Dotard’s stupid fucking border wall
• The Late Show: Two of The Dotard Трамп’s sisters speak out about the president
• Meidas Touch: Трамп failed—The results speak for themselves

MoveOn: Thousands rally to save the Post Office.

Jordan Klepper: What happened to the Federal Election Commission?

Racism in America:

• Now This: Tucker Carlson defends accused Kenosha shooter
• Sky News: Thousands echo historic civil rights March on Washington
• Brave New Films: Suppressed 2020—The fight to vote (long lines in minority neighborhoods)
• Stephen: Shame on them! Nancy Pelosi on the Senate’s refusal to pass the George Floyd Justice & Policing Act
• Now This: What are your rights when filming ICE arrests?
• Samantha Bee: The Amazing Disgrace—Our country’s racist symbols Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The Amazing Disgrace—Our country’s racist symbols Pt. 2
• Now This: BLM protesters confront Sen. Rand Paul over justice for Breonna Taylor
• Trevor: Why did the police shoot Jacob Blake?
• Vox: When voting rights didn’t protect all women

Brave New Films: Poll worker emergency—Young people needed • Election 2020.

The Daily Show: America’s got suppression.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Covid loves college
• Really American: Tucker dunks the Dotard
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills—Seniors aren’t safe in Трамп’s America
• Vox: Why face masks became political in the US
• Really American: Not THEIR children
• Full Frontal: Pandemic Video Diaries—Conventions 2020, “Expect the worst”

Samantha Bee: What it means to be progressive with Pramila Jayapal.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

John Oliver: Juries.

Lauren Mayer and Carla Ulbrich: Stand up and act!

Robert Reich: What do Russia and the United States have in common?

The Biden-Harris 2020:

• The Late Show: America—Endgame
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys the DNC and Joe Biden!
• Mark Fiore: Why change horses mid-stream
• Samantha Bee: Expect the worst from this election season, pt. 1
• Don Winslow Films: #FromRosaToKamala
• Trevor: The DNC kicks off & Michelle Obama brings down the house
• Randy Rainbow: KAMALA!

• Stephen: Barack Obama’s fiery, emotional speech sets the stage For Historic Kamala Harris VP Nomination
• Eleven Films: The #BlueWave2020 trailer
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Michelle Obama and night 1 of the Democratic National Convention
• br0keb0i: The interview that ruined Pence
• The Late Show: Dr. Destruction crashes Kamala’s DNC speech
• Robert Reich: On November 3, we defeat The Dotard Трамп and Mitch McConnell
• Samantha Bee: Expect the worst from this election season, pt. 2
• Priorities USAWreck
• Meidas Touch: Had enough Трамп?
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and FAUX try to distract from the DNC
• Trevor: The DNC kick-off & Трамп’s boat parade
• Stephen: Monologue after day 1 of the Democratic National Convention
• Trevor: Why you shouldn’t be asking if Kamala Harris is “Black enough”
• VoteVets: A real commander-in-chief
• br0keb0i: Joe Biden’s speech at the 2020 DNC best moment
• Sheryl Crow: Woman in the White House
• Trevor: DNC Day 2
• Stephen: Monologue after day 2 of the Democratic National Convention
• Now This: Joe Biden and the Violence Against Women Act
• Foundation Singers: It is what it is:

• The Late Show: John Legend previews the DNC
• The Daily Show: FAUX News is right—Any idiot can read off a teleprompter
• Here’s why you can’t sit out this election
• Trevor: DNC Day 3
• Stephen: DNC Day 4—Joe Biden states his purpose

Dulcé Sloan: Who did the 19th Amendment really give voting rights to?

Bill Maher: Think like a true QAnon.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars and Miscreants:

• The Daily Show: Americans fight for the post office and Obama speaks out
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s course—Driving us in the wrong direction
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the GOP are trying to destroy the Post Office
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп unveils the four main themes for the RNC
• Bruce W. Nelson: 25 great ways to fire Трамп
• br0keb0i: The nightmare of the Трамп presidency
• Really American: Republican confessions
• Jimmy Dore: Трамп’s presidential debate preparation with Chris Christie!
• Lauren Mayer: Save the USPS
• Stephen: Amb. Susan Rice says the American people need to “call B.S.” on Трамп’s attack on the postal service
• Bruce W. Nelson: Goodyear, Трамп, and explaining his general lack of sensitivity
• The Late Show: Трамп messed with the wrong tire guys
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Negro leagues
• Really American: Трамп swamped America
• FOD: Трамп talks social media
• Amber Ruffin shares what Трамп has done for women:

• Don Winslow Films: #MeetMotherPence
• Meidas Touch: Tick tock, Трамп
• Now This: Трамп praises followers of crazy “QAnon” conspiracy theory
• The Late Show: Exclusive footage of Steve Bannon’s perp walk
• Bruce W. Nelson: On Steve Bannon and conservatives today
• Mother Jones: That time Steve Bannon accused the Clintons of corruption and money laundering
• VoteVets: Postmaster General Louis DeJoy must resign or be fired
• Seth Meyers: Ex-Трамп adviser Steve Bannon arrested and charged with fraud
• br0keb0i: The Dotard Трамп wants to stop you from voting
• Really American: Rigger in chief
• Meidas Touch: Divorce Трамп!
• Stephen: Трамп courts conspiracy theorists from the White House podium, offering to “save the world”
• Trevor: DNC, Day 4

WaPo: Why she votes—12 female leaders share their stories of suffrage.

Robert Reich: Why Democrats and Republicans need to unite against the oligarchy

Samantha Bee: There’s a race problem in journalism.

ТрампPlague:

• br0keb0i: Jared Kushner calls coronavirus deaths a success story
• Jimmy Dore: My Pillow CEO urges people to take poison (to cure coronavirus)!
• Priorities USA: Life and death
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s “law and order” campaign is a distraction
• br0keb0i: My Pillow guy and the fake doctors of The Dotard Трамп

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Trevor: Veronica Chambers—Reframing the story of the 19th Amendment

Brave New Films: Alec Baldwin says “Make America wote again”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Randy Rainbow: CHRISTOPHER CUOMO! (A special birthday BONUS!)

Now This: Breaking down New York AG’s lawsuit against the NRA

Biden—Harris 2020:

• The Late Show: The Vice Presidential condolence card collection
• Desi Lydic: Who is Kamala Harris?
• Meidas Touch: Biden Harris 2020.
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence has no fear of Kamala Harris!!!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and FAUX struggle to attack Sen. Kamala Harris
• Now This: Трамп promotes racist birther lie about Kamala Harris
• The Late Show: Трамп deploys female candidate detector for Kamala
• Priorities USA: Her movement
• Stephen: Kamala Harris hits Трамп where it hurts—the economy
• Trevor: Kamala Harris is Biden’s VP pick
• Meidas Touch: Bye, Hannity.
• John Di DomenicoТрамп rant—Rips Kamala Harris as a liar, a phony & a nasty, nasty woman who doesn’t like puppies!
• Bruce W. Nelson: Nasty women
• Move On: Kamala Harris picked as Joe Biden’s running mate
• Stephen: Alex Wagner and Mark McKinnon on what Kamala Harris’s candidacy means for the Democratic Party
• Trevor: Kamala Harris—The person, the politician…and the chef?
• Jimmy Fallon: Trump calls Kamala Harris “nasty”
• Meidas Touch: Prosecute him—Kamala Harris makes the case against Трамп
• Now This: Cory Booker reacts to Kamala Harris VP pick.
• The Late Show: Biden picks Kamala despite no geriatric medical degree
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп issues statement about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
• br0keb0i: Трамп’s “nasty woman” comments are hurting his campaign
• Lauren Mayer: Kamala!
• Trevor: Трамп and FAUX News struggle to attack Kamala
• Stephen: Sen. Kamala Harris breaks new ground as Joe Biden’s running mate.

Roy Wood, Jr.: Citizen’s arrest—How is this still a law?

Trevor: Pramila Jayapal on political change, Трамп & the 2020 election

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Liars, Criminals, and Brown-nosers:

• br0keb0iТрамп calls his son an “environmentalist”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп Bible study—Book of Genesis
• Stephen: April Ryan’s unfiltered take on Kayleigh McEnany, Kanye West’s candidacy, and our “racist-in-chief.”
• Really American: Трамп klills USPS
• Sarah Cooper hosting Kimmel’s show does a “crazy president” political monologue
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп, bankrupt again!
• Now This: Трамп admits to defunding USPS to stop mail-in votes
• Trevor: Трамп attacks vote-by-mail and the U.S. Postal Service
• The Late Show: Mary Todd Lincoln doesn’t want Трамп anywhere near Gettysburg
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard issues statement about his brother Robert Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 1AM Rant—Biden hates God, guns, yo-semites, thighland, the Bible, energy, but loves Chyna!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп signs sham executive orders and takes credit for Obamacare
• Bruce W. Nelson: Dotard Трамп wants to be added to Mount Rushmore:

• The Late Show: What if a chef added condiments to Peter Navarro every time he lied?
• J-L Cauvin: Donald Трамп defends executive orders and Jeffrey Epstein
• Vote Vets: The Dotard goes to war on the Post Office
• Trevor: Prof. Timothy Snyder on maintaining democracy in times of tyranny
• John Di Domenico: Trump cancels election, suspends Constitution, becomes President for life!
• br0keb0i: Трамп USPS mail-in hypocrisy
• Really American: Rescue our votes
• The Late Show: Need some extra power in your shower? We’ve got you covered!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s plan to sabotage the post office before the election
• Stephen: Michael Cohen teases a bombshell book while Трамп admits he’s slowing USPS to tilt the election
• Trevor: Trump plainly admits plan to limit mail-in voting
• J-L Cauvin: Michael Cohen gives a shower of golden praise to The Dotard
• Bruce W. Nelson: The new monuments to Dotard Трамп
• Priorties USA: C’mon man
• Bad Lip Reading: Трамп interview:

• Really American: Progressives for Biden
• Seth Meyers and Amber Ruffin on what Трамп has done for Black people
• Stephen: As his popularity plummets, Трамп teases battleground state location for RNC speech
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп delivers the Gettysburg address

Brave New Films: Suppressed 2020—The fight to vote.

Seth Meyers: John Berman made the Electoral College sexy

ТрампPlague:

• Robert Reich: How billionaires are getting rich off COVID
• Trevor: Трамп makes a mess of COVID relief & eyes a spot on Rushmore
• Mark Fiore: Art of the executive order
• Meidas Touch: Трамп emptied stadiums
• Stephen: Трамп’s terrifying math—A “tiny fraction of deaths” is acceptable among school kids….
• Robert Reich: Betsy DeVos’ deadly plan for reopening schools
• Jaboukie Young-White: It’s time for scientists to absolutely lose their shit!
• Stephen: Europe discovers ugly truths about America, as 250,000 bikers gather in Sturgis despite covid risk
• The Daily Show: What was Трамп asked about?

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Meidas Touch: Vote proud—Enough is enough!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

John Oliver: American history

The Daily Show: Our best FAUX News mashups.

Foundation Singers: Good trouble (in honor of John Lewis).

The Democrats: Commemorating 55 years of the Voting Rights Act.

Roll Call: Top 10 most vulnerable senators.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Failed Liars and Grifters:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп has no healthcare plan
• Seth Meyers: Трамп twice mispronounces Yosemite and other mostly political observations
• The Daily Show: This Presidential candidate is not well
• Scottacular: Boy Трамп interviewed by Axios
• Priorties USA: Winning?
• Meidas Touch: Трамп donors—Don’t be Don’s next con
• Seth Meyers: Трамп investigated for fraud and says coronavirus will “go away”
• Priorties USA: Racist Трамп
• Parody Project: Failed as the Chief:

• Don Winslow Films: #ConsequencesForТрамп
• Vice News: Meet the guy who planned Трамп’s crackdown in Portland
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп will protect God from Joe Biden!!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп hoaxed America
• Bill Maher: The incredible sulk
• Mrs. Betty Bowers: Ivanka, daddy’s little empathizer!
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп’s train-wreck interview with Jonathan Swan on HBO
• Now This: Robert Reich debunks Трамп’s economic claims
• Mark Fiore: MAGA Mail!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп rushes back to FAUX after disastrous Axios interview
• Meidas Touch: Vote out racism
• br0keb0i: PLUMP FICTION—Cancel Трамп song
• J-L Cauvin and Reggie Brown: The Dotard Трамп wishes President Obama a happy birthday!
• >Lauren Mayer: The way Pence looks at Трамп
• New York Times: He predicted a Трамп win in 2016. What’s his forecast for 2020?
• Really American: Biblical idiot
• Jonathan Mann: Yo, Semites! [Klezmer remix]:

• WaPo: What Трамп’s executive order means for TikTok
• Now This: Who is Sebastian Gorka? Narrated by comedian Shalewa Sharpe
• Vice News: Pop quiz! Can you pass Трамп’s mental acuity test?
• Priorities USAPolice state
• Meidas Touch: #RightFromWrong—The rule of law or Трамп?
• Brave New Films: Трамп vs. Трамп—Hire / Fire
• Now This: Трамп’s mind-numbing interview with Axios

Really American: Republicans are lying about Social Security.

Robert Reich: How Mitch McConnell’s Republicans are destroying America.

Brave New Films: Why are so many women in prison?.

Roll Call: Top 10 most vulnerable House members

Rachel Maddow: : NY AG lawsuit paints vivid picture of how NRA membership money is spent.

ТрампPlague:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп forms super team
• Now This: Grieving widow writes blunt obituary after losing husband to COVID-19
• Mother Jones: The Dotard twists coronavirus realities by slamming Fauci, CNN, China, and Democrats
• Daily Show: Smart poop—Collecting data from our crap to fight COVID
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain calls from the afterlife.
• John Di Domenico: Трамп EPIC rant—Nobody likes me, Fires Fauci, hires Dr. Stella Immanuel w/alien DNA & demon sperm
• Now This: School principal records COVID-19 parody of ‘Can’t touch this’
• Trevor: The great mask war
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп challenges the punisher
• Vice News: How Mississippi became the COVID-19 hotspot
• Seth Meyers: Jared Kushner’s failed testing plan (and Трамп threatens to ban TikTok)
• Now This: Georgia student suspended for photo of crowded school
• Matt Buechele: School open plan.
• The Daily Show: Parodies in the time of coronavirus
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence is thrilled Трамп isn’t banning Tik Tok (yet)!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп Rants about interview, “I want a Do Over with more charts & graphs & no Jonathan Swan!
• Now This: Teacher regrets 2016 Трамп vote as schools reopen during COVID-19 epidemic

Jimmy Fallon: Political news of the day.

Bruce W. Nelson: Non-political song.

Now This: NY AG Letitia James files suit to dissolve NRA.

Foundation Singers: Ghislaine Maxwell’s in the slammer:

Really American: Protect our votes

Roll Call: “We’re so used to it”—Lawmakers talk sexism in Congress

Full Frontal Rewind: Black Lives Matter.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Kamala Harris explains the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.

Trevor: Florida news (LeBron helps ex-felons vote & The Dotard axes convention.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Now This: Immigrant children illegally detained by ICE in Texas Hotel.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Fascists and Dictator Wannabes:

• Meidas Touch: Wall against Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant & top 5 reasons to be re-elected in 2020! (Part 1)
• Really American: Lying Трамп
• Seth Meyers: With less than 100 days until the election, Трамп and the GOP are desperate
• Sarah Cooper: How to tick tock
• Meidas Touch: Трамп grifts, you die
• Трамп The Internet: Трамп reads Stormy Daniels
• Roy Zimmerman: “Vote him away #2 (The liar Tweets tonight)”:

• br0keb0i: RAGING BULLSHIT—Cancel Трамп song
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s worst attacks on working Americans
• Trevor: Трамп wants to delay the election & stamp out affordable housing
• Bruce W. Nelson: Donald J, Go Away
• Eleven Films: The dangerous ones
• Jimmy Dore: Mike Pompeo tries to buy Greenland for Трамп!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп rolling Back environmental regulations
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard REJECTS the Yankees
• Meidas Touch: Evict Трамп from the White House
• Chris Cuomo on Трамп’s comment “nobody likes me”
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpsEvilPlan
• The Lincoln Project: Wake up
• The Juice: Honest government ad—A message from the White House:

• Really American: Rep. Jayapal got it right!
• Meidas Touch: Nobody likes Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is FURIOUS about Michelle Obama’s new podcast
• VoteVets: Forget
• Seth: Трамп suggests delaying the election, which he can’t do
• Trevor: Are Трамп secret police leaving Portland?
• Meidas Touch: Трамп mails it in
• Jonathan Mann: Fascist fucks

Trevor: Breonna Taylor—Who she was, how she died, & why justice is overdue.

John Oliver: China and Uighurs.

Now This: Pres. Obama delivers powerful eulogy at John Lewis’ funeral.

Meidas Touch: Are you better off?:

Trevor: Sen. Tom Cotton opposes 1619 project-inspired history curriculum

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп praises “demon sperm” doctor who pushed hydroxychloroquine
• Now This: Dr. Fauci shuts down GOP Rep. trying to play scientist
• Mark Fiore: The Twitter virus task force
• Trevor: GOP COVID relief package & Трамп’s plan to protect his DC hotel
• Really American: Трамп hates science
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills Texas
• Trevor: Coronavirus ramps up in the U.S. and claims Herman Cain
• Robert Reich: 5 key demands for the new coronavirus bill
• Now This: Трамп praises doctor pushing alien DNA medical theories
• Lewis Black: Outdoor dining rules
• Seth Meyers: Sen. Kamala Harris wants to freeze evictions and foreclosures
• Trevor: Coronanews

Move On: Your vote is power.

Lauren Mayer: Voter fraud is fraud.

Desi Lydic: Dr. David Campt about how white people can fight racism in their own social circles.

The Daily Show: FAUX News on deploying federal agents 2020 vs. 2014.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 378 electoral votes	Mean of 160 electoral votes

My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.

For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
[Read more…]

The Late Show: Ted Cruz warns Texas about the Blue Wave.

Trevor: Remembering John Lewis

Samantha Bee: From Hopeless to Hope-ish with Masha Gessen

Mother Jones: Mitch McConnell refuses to honor John Lewis’ legacy.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars, Scoundrels, and Treason Weasels:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп does Portland like Putin did Crimea
• Stephen: Mary Trump says The Dotard demonstrates sociopathic tendencies
• Meidas Touch: Трамп threatens America
• Trevor: Трамп sends federal agents to break up Portland protests
• The Late Show: Person, woman, man, camera, TV—The movie
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Трамп law and order song
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп as Fredo Corleone
• Jordan Klepper: The Dotard’s boat rally.
• Stephen: Ava DuVernay—Трамп’s assault on Portland isn’t a Republican vs. Democrat issue
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп’s shocking interview with FAUX News’ Chris Wallace
• The Late Show: Let’s extend a warm Chicago welcome to Трамп’s secret police
• Really American: Dictator Трамп:

• Jonathan Mann: The president is playing golf
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS. Cognitive test genius! Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV. Cat. Easy test.
• Meidas Touch: Unpresidented idiot—The Dotard humiliates himself on FAUX News
• Stephen: Mary Trump felt an obligation to write a book about The Dotard
• The Late Show: Cognitive test elephant calls out The Dotard Трамп
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп and freedom of speech
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s Goya food fight
• Trevor: The truth behind Трамп’s “intelligence test”
• The Late Show: Everyone is super impressed that Трамп passed his cognitive test
• Really American: End the nightmare in Portland
• Don Winslow Films: #AmericasGreatestMistake
• Foundation Singers: We are the worst!:

• Stephen: Trump proves his cognitive abilities with five magical words—Person, woman, man, camera, TV
• Jonathan Mann: Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
• Songify The News: Трамп vs. Test – Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
• Lauren Mayer: The “Person Woman Man Camera TV” song
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV”, the song Трамп plans to sing at the RNC
• The Lincoln Project: Трампfeld
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s insane Chris Wallace interview; secret police in Portland
• Mark Fiore: The very stable genius
• Sarah Cooper: How to person woman man camera tv
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reads Mary Trump’s book
• Bruce W. Nelson: Ain’t never dreamt of sleeping with Betsy DeVos
• Trevor: Трамп’s brutal interview with Chris Wallace
• Jonathan Mann: Christopher David:

• Meidas Touch: Enough is enough—Трамп gestapo attacks Navy veteran in Portland
• Really American: Cognitive Трамп
• Courtney Jaye: #DementiaDon
• Seth Meyers: Трамп obsesses over his cognitive test, deploys more secret police
• Bruce W. Nelson: People say he was born without testicles
• Stephen: Трамп sends thugs to arrest Portland protesters, threatens Chicago and New York
• Desi Lydic interviews Uncle Rudy Giuliani
• Jonathan Mann: Moms are the best
• Meidas Touch: The Dotard Трамп is a disaster
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reads John Bolton’s book
• Stephen: Mary Trump is pretty sure The Dotard failed his cognitive test
• Really American: Gestapo Трамп

Brave New Films: How prisons abuse the mentally ill

Stephen: A crowd surfing American hero—Remembering Congressman John Lewis.

Robert Reich: Reimagining public safety.

The Late Show: The King of Caveat knights Rep. Ted Yoho.

Now This: 93-year-old convicted in one of the last Nazi trials ever.

ТрампPlague:

• Jen Houston: Trump & DeVos get an ‘F’ for protecting kids
• Trevor: The class of COVID-19—School reopening still unclear
• Seth Meyers: Трамп shares photo of himself wearing a face mask and other news
• Really American: Flunk Трамп
• Trevor: Susan Rice on working on a pandemic plan & watching Трамп trash it
• J-L Cauvin: 25 years of Mike Pence coronavirus briefings in a minute!
• The Late Show: Gamblers bet on Mike Pence sending his kids into a death trap
• Samantha Bee: Deniers, dimwits, and lies—How governors have responded to the pandemic, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: Deniers, dimwits, and lies—How governors have responded to the pandemic, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Protect our kids
• The Daily Show: Back to school—Corona sale!
• Seth Meyers: Gov. Gavin Newsom (Josh Meyers) on California’s second coronavirus lockdown
• Randy Rainbow: Gee, Anthony Fauchi!:

• Trevor: If you don’t know, now you know—COVID-19 vs. 1918 “Spanish” flu
• Seth Meyers: Al Gore explains what COVID-19 and climate change have in common
• Don Winslow Films: #KeepYourChildHome
• Stephen: Greta Thunberg on environmental activism in the time of coronavirus
• The Late Show: Karen, please just wear a mask
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rants and hypes rebooted corona task force show!
• Trevor: Dr. Michele Harper on fighting on the front lines of the pandemic
• Priorities USA: Cases, updated.
• The Daily Show: The 1918 “Spanish” flu vs. COVID-19. Spot the difference.
• John Oliver: Corona conspiracy theories
• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds coronavirus briefing and threatens to send more secret police
• Trevor: Трамп’s “new tone” on coronavirus?
• Stephen: A desperate Трамп promises new covid strategy….

Samantha Bee offers name alternatives for racist sports teams.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Seth Meyers: Joy Reid on White people joining the Black Lives Matter movement

Stephen: Greta Thunberg—Humanity is “setting fire to the boat” instead of facing the climate crisis.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Desi Lydic FAUXSplains “cancel culture”.

Bruce W. Nelson: Tucker Carlson’s the poster boy for meritless White privilege.

Now This: Militarized federal agents are seizing U.S. protesters in Portland

Stephen: W. Kamau Bell—America was built on White supremacy. it won’t go away until we redesign the system.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

The Dotard Трамп and His Barrel of Swamp Monkeys:

• Now This: Why this long time Republican rejects Трамп
• Trevor: Ivanka’s Goya support, Mary Трамп’s new book
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп mourns 7/11
• The Late Show: Attorney General Barr dodges Roger Stone question with his fortress
• Mark Fiore: Presidential clearinghouse sweepstakes!
• Stephen: Трамп supporter behind crumbling border wall segment wins $1.7B contract to build more wall
• Sarah Cooper: How to immigration policy
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant Part 1—“I barely know Mary “Loser” Трамп & her book is full of LIES!”
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant Part 2—SLAMS, Mary Trump: “TRUE, I DID hire someone to take SAT’s but still a liar!”
• Lauren Mayer: “(Ivanka tells me) find something new”:

• The Late Show: Goya bean can claps back at Ivanka Трамп
• Bruce W. Nelson: Take the the Трамп dumb-ass song challenge!
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп is hacked and attacked on Twitter!!!
• The Late Show: We must stop dogs from voting in the 2020 election
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• Sarah Cooper: How to AIDS vaccine
• Seth Meyers: Трамп shakes up campaign as Biden’s lead grows
• The Late Show: Ivanka Трамп loves her beans!
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп hates Mary Трамп’s new book!
• Trevor: Hillary Clinton on voter suppression, The Dotard, and Roger Stone.
• Bruce W. Nelson: ObamaCare, Трамп no care at all
• The Late Show: President Трамп’s everything quits
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to #CreepyTrump

Vox: The fight for America’s 51st state, explained.

Jimmy Fallon: Stacey Abrams breaks down how to dismantle voter suppression.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Tammy Duckworth calls Tucker Carlson a gnat.

WaPo: 50 nights of protests—What you need to know about the tension in Portland.

Trevor: Biden’s poll numbers surge, but will 2020 be another 2016?

Mother Jones: Deconstructing the design and demolition of Confederate monuments.

ТрампPlague:

• Trevor: California rolls back reopening
• The Late Show: Does Трамп’s anti-Fauci ad make you doubt the doctor?
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and his allies want you to “adapt” to the coronavirus crisis
• The Daily Show: Трамп & FAUX News’s premature coronavirus celebration
• Conan: Conan gets answers about Трамп & Dr. Fauci’s relationship
• Stephen: GOP lawmakers set to skip Трамп’s convention in Jacksonville as Florida’s covid numbers spike
• Trevor: Трамп wears a mask & the White House goes after Fauci
• FoD: Ode to Masks
• Jimmy Fallon: Rep. Val Demings calls out The Dotard’s response to COVID-19
• The Late Show: Betsy DeVos stars in “The Tragic School Bus”
• Stephen: Trump’s new coronavirus plan—Threaten America’s schools, trash Dr. Fauci in the press
• Trevor: Rep. Katie Porter on when and how should schools reopen?
• John Di Domenico: The Dotard finally wears a mask & loves it!
• The Daily Show The White House blames Fauci
• Seth Meyers: The Dotard Трамп is the last person we can trust to safely reopen schools
• Conan: The CDC’s confusing COVID-19 recommendations
• Lauren Mayer: You’re never fully dressed without a mask
• The Late Show: Coughing Republican Congressman
• Samantha Bee: The dangerous spread of mask hysteria, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The dangerous spread of mask hysteria, Pt. 2
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп finally wears a mask in public
• Trevor: Should kids go back to school this fall?
• Stephen: Трамп’s secretive covid data-grab overshadows good news about a promising vaccine

Roll Call: Democrats well positioned to take the Senate.

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 1

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 2

Jonathan Mann: Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor:

Mother Jones: Why scientists are so worried about this glacier.

Dulcé Sloan: Census suppression and why it matters.

Courtney Jaye: Get lost @TuckerCarlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Now This: Artists protest immigrant detention with skywriting

Robert Reich: Monopoly mayhem—Corporations win, workers lose.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Racist, Sexual Preditors, and Con-men:

• Rachel Maddow: Трамп scandals pass by, lose spotlight to new Трамп scandals
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s cognitive test revealed
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early
• WaPo: What Mary Трамп’s book tells us about “dysfunctional” Трамп family
• Randy Rainbow: Poor deplorable troll:

• Now This: Clammer says Трамп’s climate agenda is “treason”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп remixes the Independence Day speech
• Rachel Maddow: Rep. Adam Schiff, Трамп commuting Stone an appalling attack on rule of law
• WaPo: Трамп’s tax returns and other Supreme Court rulings, explained by Ruth Marcus
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about fake news reaction to MT. Rushmore 4th of July speech!
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп workout
• Jordan Klepper versus Трамп supporters.
• The Late Show: A mystic caterpillar makes sense of Kayleigh McEnany’s address
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп threatens to take away casinos
• Mother Jones: The Supreme Court just told Трамп, “You’re not above the law.”
• Foundation Singers: Amazing waste:

• Rachel Maddow: William Barr “decapitates” third U.S. Attorney’s office looking at Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Did The Dotard fake his SAT scores
• Sarah Cooper: How to cognitive
• The Late Show: Трамп ass-kissing garbage makes a horse sing
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп EXPLODES on Brett Kavanaugh after taxes case!!!

Anthony Anderson: Political monologue.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

• Chris Hayes: How Трамп’s hurricane Maria response foreshadowed his coronavirus failure
• Sarah Cooper: How to mask
• Now This: Watching FAUX News coincides with higher COVID-19 death rates
• The New York Times: How ICE helped spread the coronavirus
• WaPo: Трамп vs. the coronavirus:

• Chris Hayes: GOP is becoming a pro-virus party before our eyes
• Matthew Buechele: If people today were on the Titanic….
• Trevor: Growing up in the time of corona
• Rachel Maddow: Coronavirus follows Трамп on tour
• Now This: Bill Nye conducts a mask experiment
• Chris Hayes: The last person we should trust with safety of kids
• Vox: How humans are making pandemics more likely
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early

Roy Zimmerman: The Orange County Rolling Acres Senior Center Cannabis Club

Now This: Joe Biden and Ady Barkan on the future of long-term healthcare.

Black Lives Matter:

• Jaboukie Young-White in quarantine
• BuzzFeed: Why police reform doesn’t work in the U.S.
• AJ+: I was nearly lynched on Independence Day
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Police body cam shows George Floyd’s last word was “please”
• Anthony Anderson chats with Bubba Wallace
• Lauren Mayer: Stand Up and Act (Words Are Just the Beginning)
• The New York Times: What it means to be policed in America
• VICE News: Are the Boogaloo Bois a national security threat?

WaPo: Biden’s $700 billion economic plan, in 4 minutes.

The Late Show: Aliens discover racist Tucker Carlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп was offered Bounty paper towels from Putin
• Songify The News: Трамп v. Ramp
• Lauren Mayer: Трамп will go down!
• Now This: Senator Tammy Duckworth slams Трамп over Russian bounties
• Now This: The Dotard’s guide to American history:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп calls with world leaders leaked!
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 2020 election strategy in 25 steps
• Samantha Bee: Трамп attacks our nation’s free press, part 1
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s ongoing attacks on our nation’s free press, part 2
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп denies VERY STRONGLY knowing Ghislaine Maxwell
• Mark Fiore: Make fireworks great again!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s last minute, hastily put together, totally unrehearsed “Happy Canada Day” speech.
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard watches Hamilton on Disney+
• Now This: Veterans call out Трамп over paid killings of U.S. troops

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

• Full Frontal: Mike Brown learns how to do the uprising thing.
• WaPo: How to be anti-racist—It’s more than books, quotes and Blackout Tuesday
• Vox: A brief history of police impunity in Black deaths
• The Daily Show: Educate your White friends with Blacklexa
• Jonathan Mann: Karen’s got a gun.
• New York Times: Why some Black Americans need guns to feel safe in their country
• The Daily Show: White people unnecessarily calling the cops on Black people
• WaPo: “Enough is enough”—Seattle police clear protest zone after mayor’s executive order

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

• John Oliver: Coronavirus IX—Evictions
• Sky News: “Heading to pure hell”—Texas counts the cost of lifting coronavirus lockdown early
• Randy Rainbow: COVER YOUR FREAKIN’ FACE!:

• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about all the names for Covid, then announces he is going to sue the Kung flu!
• Roll Call: How to stay safe this July 4th
• Now This: Biden, “Трамп doesn’t understand the basic facts of the COVID-19 crisis”
• Jonathan Mann: Masks, I think they work (Sean Hannity remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s Mt Rushmore speech on July 3rd (preview)

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.