The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be taking a hiatus for weather and holidays. I’ll post a notice when we start meeting again.
Oh…and happy holidays!
by Darryl — ,
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be taking a hiatus for weather and holidays. I’ll post a notice when we start meeting again.
Oh…and happy holidays!
by Darryl — ,
Jimmy Kimmel: Michelle Obama on Barack being called “fine,” raising their daughters & watching trash TV
LegalEagle: The most dangerous toys of all time
Stephen: A great day for love! Biden signs Respect For Marriage Act
Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Grooming Children with Bibles, Not Drag Queens!
Lewis Black: Florida politics
The Sedition Party:
Robert Reich: The Powell Memo—Corporate America’s blueprint
Ari Melber: FAUX hosts rage after Biden signs gay marriage law
Lauren Mayer: ♫ The Twitter Files ♬
NowThis: Biden, Pelosi, & Schumer react to passage of Respect for Marriage Act
Vox: A fact-checked debate about legal weed
Daily Show correspondents roast Trevor
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
It’s Tuesday, and that means the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be getting together to talk politics and share good cheer over drinks. Please stop by if you wish.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may meet in the back room of the pub.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Stephanie Ruhle: January 6 Committee eyes final report release date
Electoral (Dys)Function:
SNL Weekend Update: Kanye West praises Hitler and Biden averts rail strike
NowThis: Inclusive capitalism, how it could help strengthen democracy
The Dotard Трамп and His Mob of Lying, Racist Assholes:
Vice News: Families of trans kids are seeking sanctuary
WaPo: House passes Respect for Marriage Act
Dulcé Sloan: Drag vs. Conservatives
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
It’s election day…in Georgia. The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be getting together to discuss the Georgia election results and other things political and liberal. Please join us if you will.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may meet in the back room of the pub.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
Trevor: Herschel Walker’s wild plan, Twitter’s new covid policy, and police robots
NowThis: Hakeem Jeffries to make history as first Black party leader in Congress
Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ On the awful secularization of Groundhog Day ♬
Electoral Dysfunction:
Robert Reich: The Fed’s inflation mistake continues
VICE News: The poetry of thriving with HIV
Jonathan Jensen: ♫ A parody tribute to Randy Rainbow ♬
The Party of White Supremacists and Holocaust Denial:
LegalEagle: FTX was (and is) a complete mess
Alex Wagner: Congress demands answers on Supreme Court Justice access scandal and accountability problem
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be getting together. Please join us for an evening of political discussions over a beverage or two.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
John Oliver: Qatar World Cup
Liberal Redneck: The results of rhetoric
Vox: How FIFA corrupted the World Cup
Jimmy Kimmel: Kanye West’s new board game
Electoral Dysfunction:
Michael Kosta: New Yorkers to fill him in on the news
Joy Reid: We are a country that chooses violence over and over again
Robert Reich: Does Elon Musk have a right to destroy Twitter?
Lawrence O’Donnell: Cherokee Nation calls on Congress to fulfill 187-year-old promise
The KKKrazy Klan of The Dotard Трамп:
NowThis: Biden Gives U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team a pep talk for World Cup match
Adam Conover: Elon Musk is an idiot (and so are Zuck and SBF)
LegalEagle: Elon bought himself a bunch of lawsuits
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
Please join us this evening as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of politics, conversation, and good cheer over a drink.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio (under an awning). The cold weather may entice some folks to hang out in the back room of the pub as well.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
Roy Wood, Jr.: Black superhero history
The New York Times: Empty classrooms, abandoned kids—Inside The Great Teacher Resignation
Desi Lydic: Twitter’s Head of Communications speaks out
Electile (Dys)Function:
Stephen: Family meeting with Michelle Obama
Amber Ruffin: How Native American kids were forced to become whiter
Mehdi Hasan: The most defining moments of Nancy Pelosi’s legacy
The Dotard Трамп and Other Dishonorable Liars and Grifters:
WaPo: How Nancy Pelosi became the most powerful woman in Congress
Stephen chats with Michelle Obama (full interview)
Desi Lydic: Black Friday—Why?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Please join us on Tuesday as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of post-election celebration. Please note the meeting time and venue change.
This week we will meet at the Duchess Tavern (2827 NE 55th St, Seattle WA 98105) starting at 7pm out on the patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
Jimmy Kimmel: Dana Carvey’s Dotard Трамп, Barack Obama & Joe Biden Impressions
Drunk History: Unbelievable moments in US political history
Electoral Dysfunction:
Roy Wood, Jr.: CP Time—The history of Black governors
Трамп and His Imbeciles:
Ronny Chieng teaches you about Asian veterans
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
by Darryl — ,
Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.
My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.
Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.
What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.
There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.
Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.
Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.
Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
---|---|---|---|---|
Safe Democrat | 44 | |||
Strong Democrat | 2 | 46 | ||
Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
Leans Republican | 1 | 1 | 51 | |
Strong Republican | 9 | 50 | ||
Safe Republican | 41 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
# | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
AZ | 16 | 11772 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
AR | 1& | 451 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
CO | 4 | 3028 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
CT | 1 | 773 | 66.2 | 33.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
FL | 7 | 4408 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
GA | 15 | 12247 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.3 | 53.7 | |
HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
IL | 1 | 441 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
IN | 1 | 615 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 1.4 | 98.6 | |
IA | 1 | 753 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
KS | 1 | 868 | 37.6 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
MD | 1& | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
MO | 5 | 4295 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
NV | 9 | 6281 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
NH | 9 | 10733 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 84.4 | 15.6 | |
NY | 5 | 4024 | 60.1 | 39.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
NC | 7 | 6807 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
OH | 8 | 7425 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
OK | 3 | 2024 | 41.6 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
OK | 3 | 1984 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
OR | 2 | 2171 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
PA | 14 | 11479 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 37.0 | 63.0 | |
SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
SD | 1& | 1275 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
UT | 2 | 1242 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
VT | 1& | 987 | 66.4 | 33.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
WA | 3 | 2183 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 76.1 | 23.9 | |
WI | 8 | 6410 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.