I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).
The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:
Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):
- 357 electoral votes with a 16.57% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 11.01% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 6.95% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 5.20% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 4.95% probability
- 394 electoral votes with a 4.15% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 3.72% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 3.02% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.39% probability
- 340 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 363.8 (18.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 174.2 (18.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 357 (335, 404)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 181 (134, 203)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|6||2||Votes||polls||Votes||Biden||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.