About 40 new polls have been released since my previous analysis a week ago. Sec. Hillary Clinton was winning with near certainty and up 338 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 200 electoral votes.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,925 times and Trump wins 75 times. Clinton received (on average) 333 to Trump’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.
A few states have shown some interesting changes since last week.
- Arizona: Trump’s long non-winning streak is broken with a new Trump+1% poll that reduces Clinton’s chances of winning the state from 79% to 74%.
- Florida: Most recent polls have had Clinton up by a small margin, but this week we get a large Remington poll that has the state tied and a Bloomberg poll that has Trump up +2%. As a result, Clinton drops from a 93% chance of winning the state last week to an 85% chance of winning the state this week.
- Iowa: Trump has led in most polls, but one recent poll has Clinton up by +0.6%. Trump’s chances have dropped from 79% to 71%.
- Louisiana: Two new polls have Trump up by double digits, moving him from 94% to 100% chance of winning the state.
- North Carolina: Clinton has led in all recent polls, until a large Remington poll put Trump up by +3%. Clinton’s chances driop from 88% to 80%.
- Ohio: The most recent polls have Trump up by small margins. This has shifted Ohio from a 65% probabilitiy of a Trump win to a 89% probability.
- South Dakota: Last week we only had an old poll that had Trump up by double digits, giving Trump a certain win. A new Maxon-Dixon poll has Trump up by +7%, but the small size of the poll means that Trump’s chances are pegged at 89% new.
- Texas: We have only 2 current polls and Trump has tiny margins (+3% and +4%). Trump’s chances have dropped from 96% to 86% as a result.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 27 Oct 2015 to 27 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 334 electoral votes with a 6.09% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 5.94% probability
- 340 electoral votes with a 3.81% probability
- 339 electoral votes with a 3.46% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.43% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.38% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 2.17% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.01%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 333.2 (21.3)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 204.8 (21.3)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 333 (292, 380)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 205 (158, 246)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Follow me (@hominidviews) on Twitter for poll updates.