Clinton versus Trump using polls from 27-Oct-15 to 27-Oct-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Strategy Res 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 3000 2.0 32.0 48.0 T+16.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 9.8% wins (9,816 wins ), Trump: 90.2% wins (90,184 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Moore 05-Oct-16 06-Oct-16 500 4.0 34.0 37.0 T+3.0
ASR 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 660 3.8 30.6 36.1 T+5.5


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 74.9% wins (74,857 wins ), Trump: 25.1% wins (25,143 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 21-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 401 4.9 45.0 46.0 T+1.0
Data Orbital 17-Oct-16 18-Oct-16 550 4.1 41.0 41.0 0.0
HighGround 14-Oct-16 14-Oct-16 400 4.9 38.5 36.5 C+2.0
AZ Republic 10-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 713 3.9 39.0 34.0 C+5.0
Data Orbital 11-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 550 4.1 43.0 42.0 C+1.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 21-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 463 4.6 32.5 56.0 T+23.5


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPIC 14-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 1024 4.3 54.0 28.0 C+26.0
SurveyUSA 13-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 725 3.7 56.3 30.4 C+25.9


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 94.8% wins (94,823 wins ), Trump: 5.2% wins (5,177 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1581 2.5 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 685 3.7 45.0 37.0 C+8.0
Magellan 12-Oct-16 13-Oct-16 500 4.4 40.0 35.0 C+5.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,974 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (26 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 1000 3.0 49.8 34.9 C+14.9


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U DE 16-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 762 4.1 51.0 30.0 C+21.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 84.5% wins (84,459 wins ), Trump: 15.5% wins (15,541 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNF 20-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 786 3.4 43.0 39.0 C+4.0
Bloomberg 21-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 953 3.2 43.0 45.0 T+2.0
SurveyUSA 20-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 1251 2.8 48.0 45.0 C+3.0
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1646 2.4 46.0 46.0 0.0
Opinion Savvy 20-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 538 4.2 49.0 45.0 C+4.0
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 660 3.8 48.0 44.0 C+4.0
Opinion Savvy 10-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 533 4.2 47.0 44.2 C+2.8


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 3.2% wins (3,223 wins ), Trump: 96.8% wins (96,777 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Opinion Savvy 20-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 570 4.1 46.0 50.0 T+4.0
Landmark 20-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 600 4.0 43.2 46.9 T+3.7
AJC 17-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 839 4.3 41.7 43.6 T+1.9
Clout 15-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 627 3.9 43.1 45.8 T+2.7
Landmark 11-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 1400 2.7 42.3 47.8 T+5.5


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 21-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 1023 3.0 23.4 52.3 T+28.9


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Victory 16-Oct-16 18-Oct-16 1200 2.8 51.2 36.1 C+15.1


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 10.9% wins (10,883 wins ), Trump: 89.1% wins (89,117 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Ball State 10-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 544 4.8 37.0 43.0 T+6.0
Monmouth 11-Oct-16 13-Oct-16 402 4.9 41.0 45.0 T+4.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 28.7% wins (28,747 wins ), Trump: 71.3% wins (71,253 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Des Moines Reg 03-Oct-16 06-Oct-16 642 4.0 39.0 43.0 T+4.0
Loras Col 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 491 4.4 38.3 37.7 C+0.6


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.6% wins (1,629 wins ), Trump: 98.4% wins (98,371 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 581 4.1 36.0 47.3 T+11.4


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.0% wins (1,028 wins ), Trump: 99.0% wins (98,972 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Harper 31-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 500 4.4 36.0 49.0 T+13.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SMOR 19-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 500 4.4 35.0 50.0 T+15.0
Mason-Dixon 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 625 4.0 34.0 54.0 T+20.0
JMC 11-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 800 3.5 38.0 45.0 T+7.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 96.4% wins (96,427 wins ), Trump: 3.6% wins (3,573 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
MPRC 07-Oct-16 09-Oct-16 892 3.3 44.0 36.1 C+7.9


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,775 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (225 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
MPRC 07-Oct-16 09-Oct-16 468 4.5 48.7 32.3 C+16.4


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 41.8% wins (41,838 wins ), Trump: 58.2% wins (58,162 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
MPRC 07-Oct-16 09-Oct-16 424 4.8 38.8 40.4 T+1.6


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U MD 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 706 4.0 63.0 27.0 C+36.0
Goucher 17-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 514 4.3 58.0 25.0 C+33.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WBUR 13-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 502 4.4 54.0 28.0 C+26.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Mitchell 18-Oct-16 18-Oct-16 1102 3.0 51.0 38.0 C+13.0
MRG 16-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 600 4.0 41.0 36.0 C+5.0
Mitchell 11-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 1429 2.6 47.0 37.0 C+10.0
Detroit News 10-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 600 4.0 42.2 30.6 C+11.6


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 93.0% wins (92,991 wins ), Trump: 7.0% wins (7,009 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 625 4.0 47.0 39.0 C+8.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (25 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,975 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Magellan 11-Aug-16 11-Aug-16 1084 2.9 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 0.9% wins (871 wins ), Trump: 99.1% wins (99,129 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 600 3.9 39.0 47.0 T+8.0
Remington 09-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 2171 2.1 42.0 47.0 T+5.0
Monmouth 09-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 406 4.9 41.0 46.0 T+5.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 1003 3.2 36.0 46.0 T+10.0
MSU-Billings 03-Oct-16 10-Oct-16 590 4.0 27.0 43.0 T+16.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 29.2 55.6 T+26.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (272 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,728 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 16.4% wins (16,408 wins ), Trump: 83.6% wins (83,592 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 40.0 49.0 T+9.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 234 --- 20.0 65.0 T+45.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 83.0% wins (82,983 wins ), Trump: 17.0% wins (17,017 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 20-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 1122 2.9 45.0 45.0 0.0
LVRJ 20-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 800 3.5 48.0 41.0 C+7.0
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1332 2.7 44.0 47.0 T+3.0
Rasmussen 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 826 3.5 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Monmouth 14-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 413 4.8 47.0 40.0 C+7.0
CNN/ORC 10-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 1006 3.0 46.0 44.0 C+2.0
JMC Analytics 10-Oct-16 13-Oct-16 600 4.0 43.0 41.0 C+2.0
Clarity 10-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 1010 3.0 43.0 43.0 0.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 22-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 401 4.9 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 20-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 1138 2.9 45.0 36.0 C+9.0
UMass 17-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 772 4.5 43.0 38.0 C+5.0
Emerson 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 900 3.2 44.0 36.0 C+8.0
WMUR 11-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 770 3.5 49.0 34.0 C+15.0
WBUR 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 501 4.4 41.0 38.0 C+3.0
UMass 07-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 517 4.9 45.0 39.0 C+6.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 97.4% wins (97,418 wins ), Trump: 2.6% wins (2,582 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson 12-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 579 4.3 51.0 40.0 C+11.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,925 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (75 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
ZiaPoll 11-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 1536 2.5 46.0 36.0 C+10.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Siena 13-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 611 4.6 54.0 30.0 C+24.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

9 polls

Clinton: 80.3% wins (80,333 wins ), Trump: 19.7% wins (19,667 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Siena 20-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 792 3.5 46.0 39.0 C+7.0
Monmouth 20-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 402 4.9 47.0 46.0 C+1.0
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1764 2.3 44.0 47.0 T+3.0
Civitas 14-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 600 4.0 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
SurveyUSA 14-Oct-16 17-Oct-16 651 3.9 45.8 44.4 C+1.4
CNN/ORC 10-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 1025 3.0 48.0 47.0 C+1.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 724 3.6 45.0 41.0 C+4.0
Emerson 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 600 3.9 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Suffolk 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 500 4.4 44.8 43.4 C+1.4


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.6% wins (3,581 wins ), Trump: 96.4% wins (96,419 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 12-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 400 4.9 32.0 43.0 T+11.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 11.3% wins (11,287 wins ), Trump: 88.7% wins (88,713 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1971 2.2 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
Suffolk 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 500 4.4 44.6 44.8 T+0.2
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 624 3.9 45.0 45.0 0.0
CNN/ORC 10-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 1009 3.0 44.0 48.0 T+4.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 724 3.6 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
Emerson 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 600 3.9 45.0 43.0 C+2.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 18-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 530 4.2 30.0 60.0 T+30.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,789 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (211 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 654 3.9 47.7 38.1 C+9.6
DHM 06-Oct-16 13-Oct-16 600 4.0 42.5 36.0 C+6.5
Riley Res 04-Oct-16 14-Oct-16 608 4.0 46.0 36.0 C+10.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 99.7% wins (99,716 wins ), Trump: 0.3% wins (284 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Siena 23-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 824 3.4 46.0 39.0 C+7.0
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1997 2.2 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
Emerson 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 800 3.4 45.0 41.0 C+4.0
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 600 3.8 47.0 41.0 C+6.0
Bloomberg 07-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 806 3.5 48.0 39.0 C+9.0
Susquehanna 04-Oct-16 09-Oct-16 764 3.5 44.4 40.2 C+4.2


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,997 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (3 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 600 3.9 52.0 32.0 C+20.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Winthrop 18-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 475 4.5 38.0 42.0 T+4.0
Trafalgar Group 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 1247 2.8 37.6 53.0 T+15.4


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 11.2% wins (11,165 wins ), Trump: 88.8% wins (88,835 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 18-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 500 5.0 37.0 44.0 T+7.0


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (25 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,975 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Middle TN State U 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 472 5.0 38.0 50.0 T+12.0
Vanderbilt 19-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 1000 3.4 33.0 44.0 T+11.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 13.9% wins (13,944 wins ), Trump: 86.1% wins (86,056 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U. Houston 07-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 1000 3.0 38.0 41.0 T+3.0
SurveyUSA 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 638 4.0 43.0 47.0 T+4.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 13.5% wins (13,517 wins ), Trump: 86.5% wins (86,483 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 600 3.9 24.0 27.0 T+3.0
Rasmussen 14-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 750 4.0 28.0 30.0 T+2.0
Monmouth 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 403 4.9 28.0 34.0 T+6.0
Y2 Analytics 10-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 500 4.4 26.0 26.0 0.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WCAX 19-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 603 4.0 50.0 22.0 C+28.0
VPR 29-Sep-16 14-Oct-16 650 3.9 45.0 17.0 C+28.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1787 2.3 48.0 43.0 C+5.0
CNU 16-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 834 3.9 45.0 33.0 C+12.0
Tarrance 12-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 500 4.1 47.0 38.0 C+9.0
CNU 11-Oct-16 14-Oct-16 809 3.6 44.0 29.0 C+15.0
Emerson 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 600 3.9 46.0 43.0 C+3.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,949 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (51 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Elway 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 502 4.5 48.0 31.0 C+17.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
GHY 13-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 500 5.0 28.0 60.0 T+32.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 99.6% wins (99,585 wins ), Trump: 0.4% wins (415 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 1795 2.3 46.0 41.0 C+5.0
Monmouth 15-Oct-16 18-Oct-16 403 4.9 47.0 40.0 C+7.0
St. Norbert 13-Oct-16 16-Oct-16 664 3.8 47.0 39.0 C+8.0
Marquette 06-Oct-16 09-Oct-16 878 3.9 46.0 42.0 C+4.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 402 4.9 19.0 54.0 T+35.0