7 November 2016
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Yesterday’s analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) with 290 EVs to 248 EVs. If the election was held yesterday, we would expect Clinton to win with an 86.8% chance.
Since that analysis there have been about 28 new polls release that satisfy my inclusion criteria. I should point out, that the new polls include eight new polls from Remington Research (R) and four from Trafalgar Group (R). If the significance of this escapes you, read Goldy’s post.
One of the things I am going to do in this analysis is do two analyses: one with these two pollsters included, and one that excludes all Remington and Trafalgar polls. Pick the one you wish.
Which one is right? It is hard to say. I hate accusing a pollster of producing bogus polls. I’ve had numerous people complain about including this poll or that poll, and I ignore them. The entire premise of my effort is that by aggregating polls broadly, any “house effects” will cancel. But the oddities of Remington are clear. Trafalgar polls also seem quite dodgy.
Okay…Here we go. Scroll down or click here for the alternative analysis.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 84,508 times and Trump wins 15,492 times (including the 2,449 ties). Clinton received (on average) 282 (-8) to Trump’s 256 (+8) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 84.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 15.5% probability of winning. Thus, Clinton slips a bit, but the race isn’t changing much.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Nov 2015 to 07 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 276 electoral votes with a 9.03% probability
- 275 electoral votes with a 7.47% probability
- 272 electoral votes with a 4.95% probability
- 273 electoral votes with a 4.92% probability
- 274 electoral votes with a 4.75% probability
- 271 electoral votes with a 3.59% probability
- 305 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
- 269 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 84.5%, Trump wins 15.5%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 282.3 (16.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 255.7 (16.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 276 (255, 318)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 262 (220, 283)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 119 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 139 | 258 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 18 | 18 | 276 | |
| Weak Clinton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 |
| Leans Trump | 36 | 36 | 262 | |
| Strong Trump | 101 | 226 | ||
| Safe Trump | 125 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 2400 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 360 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 73.1 | 26.9 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 6 | 3965 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 1.0 | 99.0 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 556 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 675 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 7 | 11120 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 847 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 618 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 10 | 10074 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 27.1 | 72.9 | ||
| GA | 16 | 6 | 5392 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 1.0 | 99.0 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 774 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 470 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 97.5 | 2.5 | ||
| IN | 11 | 2 | 868 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| IA | 6 | 3 | 1715 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 10.9 | 89.1 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 826 | 41.2 | 58.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2* | 1267 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 4* | 2145 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 660 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 78.6 | 21.4 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 345 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 80.1 | 19.9 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1 | 323 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 62.6 | 37.4 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 1062 | 70.0 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 342 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 8 | 5958 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 94.2 | 5.8 | ||
| MN | 10 | 2* | 1111 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 99.5 | 0.5 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 987 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| MO | 10 | 6 | 4533 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 2* | 1345 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 1.6 | 98.4 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 594 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 191 | 35.6 | 64.4 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 207 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 14.6 | 85.4 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 199 | 23.6 | 76.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 6 | 5417 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 6.9 | 93.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 8 | 4865 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 80.4 | 19.6 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 617 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 98.2 | 1.8 | ||
| NM | 5 | 3 | 9005 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 95.3 | 4.7 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 525 | 60.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 7 | 7304 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 8.2 | 91.8 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 300 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 3.3 | 96.7 | ||
| OH | 18 | 5 | 5722 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 6.7 | 93.3 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 477 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 378 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 89.9 | 10.1 | ||
| PA | 20 | 12 | 12143 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 98.3 | 1.7 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 504 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 2* | 1509 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 3* | 1857 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1185 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TX | 38 | 3 | 2489 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 4 | 1912 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 437 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 8 | 8438 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 598 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 440 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 5 | 6637 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 563 | 25.6 | 74.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Analysis without Remington and Trafalgar
Scroll up or click here for the standard analysis.
This analysis excludes all Remington and Trafalgar polls.
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Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 98,707 times and Trump wins 1,293 times (including the 231 ties). Clinton received (on average) 310 to Trump’s 228 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 98.7% probability of winning and Trump would have a 1.3% probability of winning.
This is quite a stark difference. If Remington and Trafalgar are trying to fuck with the poll aggregators, they have likely succeeded!
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 305 electoral votes with a 5.09% probability
- 320 electoral votes with a 4.35% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.99% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
- 311 electoral votes with a 2.93% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
- 317 electoral votes with a 2.76% probability
- 301 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability
- 310 electoral votes with a 2.49% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 98.7%, Trump wins 1.3%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 309.9 (16.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 228.1 (16.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 310 (274, 339)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 228 (199, 264)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 109 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 156 | 265 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 40 | 40 | 305 | |
| Weak Clinton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 305 |
| Weak Trump | 15 | 15 | 15 | 233 |
| Leans Trump | 40 | 40 | 218 | |
| Strong Trump | 60 | 178 | ||
| Safe Trump | 118 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 2400 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 360 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 72.4 | 27.6 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 6 | 3965 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 1.0 | 99.0 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 556 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 675 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 4 | 7703 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 847 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 618 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 6 | 4848 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 87.8 | 12.2 | ||
| GA | 16 | 5 | 4180 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 5.0 | 95.0 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 774 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 470 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 97.1 | 2.9 | ||
| IN | 11 | 2 | 868 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| IA | 6 | 3 | 1715 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 11.1 | 88.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 826 | 41.2 | 58.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2* | 1267 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 4* | 2145 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 660 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 80.0 | 20.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 345 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 81.6 | 18.4 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1 | 323 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 61.7 | 38.3 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 1062 | 70.0 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 342 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 7 | 4806 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 97.7 | 2.3 | ||
| MN | 10 | 2* | 1111 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 987 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| MO | 10 | 5 | 2983 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 2* | 1345 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 2.0 | 97.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 594 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 191 | 35.6 | 64.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 207 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 15.2 | 84.8 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 199 | 23.6 | 76.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 3 | 2020 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 20.2 | 79.8 | ||
| NH | 4 | 8 | 4865 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 79.1 | 20.9 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 617 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| NM | 5 | 3 | 9005 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 96.0 | 4.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 525 | 60.0 | 40.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NC | 15 | 4 | 2735 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 42.1 | 57.9 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 300 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 4.4 | 95.6 | ||
| OH | 18 | 3 | 2366 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 12.4 | 87.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 477 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 378 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 90.4 | 9.6 | ||
| PA | 20 | 9 | 7368 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 98.9 | 1.1 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 504 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 380 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 22.7 | 77.3 | ||
| SD | 3 | 2* | 909 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1185 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 3 | 2489 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 3 | 974 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 437 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 6 | 4663 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 598 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 440 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2630 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 563 | 25.6 | 74.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
