Clinton versus Trump using polls from 07-Nov-15 to 07-Nov-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Strategy Res 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 3000 2.0 32.0 48.0 T+16.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 73.1% wins (73,142 wins ), Trump: 26.9% wins (26,858 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Craciun Res 21-Oct-16 26-Oct-16 400 4.9 47.0 43.0 C+4.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 1.0% wins (954 wins ), Trump: 99.0% wins (99,046 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Data Orbital 04-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 550 4.1 43.9 46.5 T+2.5
Data Orbital 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 550 4.1 39.4 47.1 T+7.7
NBC/WSJ/Marist 30-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1120 2.9 40.0 45.0 T+5.0
CNN/ORC 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1005 3.0 44.0 49.0 T+5.0
Emerson 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 700 3.6 43.5 47.1 T+3.6
Data Orbital 29-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 550 4.1 41.2 44.8 T+3.6


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Arkansas Poll 18-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 585 4.1 36.0 59.0 T+23.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 747 3.6 55.7 34.7 C+21.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Keating Res 02-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 605 4.0 43.0 38.0 C+5.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1863 2.3 42.0 41.0 C+1.0
Trafalgar Group 31-Oct-16 03-Nov-16 1150 3.0 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Magellan 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 7500 4.4 44.0 38.0 C+6.0
U Denver 29-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 550 4.2 39.0 39.0 0.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 952 3.2 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Emerson 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 750 3.5 43.5 41.2 C+2.3


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 1000 3.0 49.8 34.9 C+14.9


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U DE 16-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 762 4.1 51.0 30.0 C+21.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

10 polls

Clinton: 27.1% wins (27,115 wins ), Trump: 72.9% wins (72,885 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Trafalgar Group 06-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 1100 2.9 46.1 49.7 T+3.6
Opinion Savvy 05-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 853 3.4 48.0 46.0 C+2.0
Quinnipiac 03-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 884 3.3 46.0 45.0 C+1.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 2352 2.0 45.0 48.0 T+3.0
Opinion Saavy 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 603 4.0 49.0 45.0 C+4.0
Gravis 31-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 1195 2.2 49.0 46.0 C+3.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 989 3.1 44.0 48.0 T+4.0
Quinnipiac 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 626 3.9 46.0 45.0 C+1.0
CNN/ORC 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1011 3.0 49.0 47.0 C+2.0
Trafalgar Group 27-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 1150 2.9 44.8 48.7 T+3.9


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 1.0% wins (1,046 wins ), Trump: 99.0% wins (98,954 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Landmark 06-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 1200 2.8 45.7 49.0 T+3.3
Trafalgar Group 06-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 1250 2.8 45.0 52.0 T+7.0
Opinion Savvy 02-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 538 4.2 44.6 48.5 T+3.9
Landmark 02-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 1000 3.1 46.0 48.0 T+2.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 30-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1120 2.9 44.0 45.0 T+1.0
Emerson 29-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 650 3.8 42.3 50.9 T+8.6


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 21-Oct-16 23-Oct-16 1023 3.0 23.4 52.3 T+28.9


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 97.5% wins (97,548 wins ), Trump: 2.5% wins (2,452 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 27-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 500 4.3 53.0 41.0 C+12.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.4% wins (386 wins ), Trump: 99.6% wins (99,614 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WTHR/Howey 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 600 4.0 37.0 48.0 T+11.0
Monmouth 27-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 402 4.9 39.0 50.0 T+11.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 10.9% wins (10,897 wins ), Trump: 89.1% wins (89,103 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Des Moines Reg 01-Nov-16 04-Nov-16 800 3.5 39.0 46.0 T+7.0
Loras Col 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 500 4.4 44.2 43.4 C+0.8
Emerson 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 700 3.6 41.3 44.0 T+2.7


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fort Hays State U 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 313 5.5 34.0 58.0 T+24.0
SurveyUSA 26-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 624 4.0 37.5 48.7 T+11.2


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WKU 25-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 602 4.0 37.0 54.0 T+17.0
RunSwitch 26-Oct-16 28-Oct-16 811 3.4 32.4 56.2 T+23.8


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SMOR 19-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 500 4.4 35.0 50.0 T+15.0
UNO 15-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 603 4.0 35.0 49.0 T+14.0
Mason-Dixon 17-Oct-16 19-Oct-16 625 4.0 34.0 54.0 T+20.0
JMC 11-Oct-16 15-Oct-16 800 3.5 38.0 45.0 T+7.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 78.6% wins (78,608 wins ), Trump: 21.4% wins (21,392 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 28-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 750 3.5 46.0 42.0 C+4.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 80.1% wins (80,111 wins ), Trump: 19.9% wins (19,889 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 28-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 375 5.0 49.0 43.0 C+6.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 62.6% wins (62,552 wins ), Trump: 37.4% wins (37,448 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 28-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 375 5.0 44.0 42.0 C+2.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U MD 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 706 4.0 63.0 27.0 C+36.0
Goucher 17-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 514 4.3 58.0 25.0 C+33.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WNEU 23-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 417 5.0 56.0 26.0 C+30.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 94.2% wins (94,161 wins ), Trump: 5.8% wins (5,839 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Trafalgar Group 06-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 1200 2.8 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
Strategic National 03-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 573 --- 44.0 44.0 0.0
EPIC-MRA 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 600 4.0 42.0 38.0 C+4.0
Mitchell 02-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1150 2.9 47.0 44.0 C+3.0
Mitchell 01-Nov-16 01-Nov-16 887 3.3 47.0 44.0 C+3.0
Mitchell 31-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 737 3.6 50.0 43.0 C+7.0
Mitchell 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 953 3.2 47.0 41.0 C+6.0
Strategic National 29-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 500 --- 45.0 44.0 C+1.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.5% wins (99,506 wins ), Trump: 0.5% wins (494 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 22-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 656 3.9 48.9 38.6 C+10.2
Mason-Dixon 20-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 625 4.0 47.0 39.0 C+8.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (170 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,830 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Magellan 11-Aug-16 11-Aug-16 1084 2.9 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 04-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 750 3.5 40.9 46.2 T+5.3
Clarity 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1036 5.3 38.0 54.0 T+16.0
Remington 31-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1722 2.4 39.0 51.0 T+12.0
DFM 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 508 4.4 38.0 47.0 T+9.0
Emerson 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 650 3.8 36.8 52.2 T+15.4
Monmouth 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 405 4.9 38.0 52.0 T+14.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 1.6% wins (1,589 wins ), Trump: 98.4% wins (98,411 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 1003 3.2 46.0 47.0 T+1.0
MSU-Billings 03-Oct-16 10-Oct-16 590 4.0 27.0 43.0 T+16.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 29.2 55.6 T+26.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (318 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,682 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 14.6% wins (14,605 wins ), Trump: 85.4% wins (85,395 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 40.0 49.0 T+9.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 234 --- 20.0 65.0 T+45.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 6.9% wins (6,940 wins ), Trump: 93.1% wins (93,060 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 04-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 600 3.9 46.8 45.8 C+1.0
Trafalgar Group 01-Nov-16 04-Nov-16 1100 --- 45.0 49.6 T+4.6
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1793 2.3 45.0 46.0 T+1.0
JMC 28-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 600 4.0 45.0 45.0 0.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 787 3.5 44.0 48.0 T+4.0
CNN/ORC 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1005 3.0 43.0 49.0 T+6.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 80.4% wins (80,372 wins ), Trump: 19.6% wins (19,628 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 04-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 1000 3.0 45.4 43.8 C+1.6
WMUR 03-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 707 3.7 49.0 38.0 C+11.0
Gravis 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1001 2.0 41.0 43.0 T+2.0
Suffolk 31-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 500 4.4 42.0 42.0 0.0
ARG 31-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 600 4.0 43.0 48.0 T+5.0
WBUR 29-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 500 4.4 39.0 40.0 T+1.0
UMass 28-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 695 4.3 44.0 44.0 0.0
WMUR 26-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 641 3.9 46.0 39.0 C+7.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 98.2% wins (98,161 wins ), Trump: 1.8% wins (1,839 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Stockton 27-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 678 3.8 51.0 40.0 C+11.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 95.3% wins (95,335 wins ), Trump: 4.7% wins (4,665 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
ZiaPoll 06-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 8439 1.8 46.0 44.0 C+2.0
AbqJournal 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 504 4.4 45.0 40.0 C+5.0
ZiaPoll 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1102 3.0 46.0 43.0 C+3.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,987 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (13 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Siena 03-Nov-16 04-Nov-16 617 4.5 51.0 34.0 C+17.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 8.2% wins (8,244 wins ), Trump: 91.8% wins (91,756 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Siena 04-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 800 3.5 44.0 44.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 03-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 870 3.3 47.0 45.0 C+2.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 2596 1.9 45.0 48.0 T+3.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1176 2.9 45.0 47.0 T+2.0
Trafalgar Group 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1150 2.9 44.2 49.1 T+5.0
Quinnipiac 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 602 4.0 47.0 44.0 C+3.0
SurveyUSA 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 718 3.7 44.0 51.0 T+7.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.3% wins (3,293 wins ), Trump: 96.7% wins (96,707 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 12-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 400 4.9 32.0 43.0 T+11.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 6.7% wins (6,698 wins ), Trump: 93.3% wins (93,302 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 04-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 900 3.2 38.9 45.7 T+6.8
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 2557 1.9 44.0 45.0 T+1.0
Columbus Dispatch 27-Oct-16 05-Nov-16 1151 2.9 48.0 47.0 C+1.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1187 2.8 43.0 48.0 T+5.0
Quinnipiac 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 589 4.0 41.0 46.0 T+5.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 18-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 530 4.2 30.0 60.0 T+30.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 89.9% wins (89,931 wins ), Trump: 10.1% wins (10,069 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
DHM 25-Oct-16 29-Oct-16 504 4.4 41.0 34.0 C+7.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Clinton: 98.3% wins (98,251 wins ), Trump: 1.7% wins (1,749 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Trafalgar Group 03-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 1300 2.7 47.0 48.0 T+1.0
Clarity 01-Nov-16 04-Nov-16 1033 3.0 47.0 43.0 C+4.0
Harper 02-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 504 4.4 46.0 46.0 0.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 2683 1.9 46.0 45.0 C+1.0
Muhlenberg 30-Oct-16 04-Nov-16 405 5.5 44.0 40.0 C+4.0
Susquehanna 31-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 681 3.8 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
Gravis 31-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 2606 1.9 47.0 46.0 C+1.0
Monmouth 29-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 403 4.9 48.0 44.0 C+4.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1249 2.8 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
Quinnipiac 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 612 4.0 48.0 43.0 C+5.0
CNN/ORC 27-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1014 3.0 48.0 44.0 C+4.0
F&M 26-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 863 4.4 49.0 38.0 C+11.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 600 3.9 52.0 32.0 C+20.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Winthrop 18-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 475 4.5 38.0 42.0 T+4.0
Trafalgar Group 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 1247 2.8 37.6 53.0 T+15.4


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Nielson Bros 24-Oct-16 26-Oct-16 600 4.0 35.0 49.0 T+14.0
Remington 19-Oct-16 21-Oct-16 1115 2.9 37.0 48.0 T+11.0
Mason-Dixon 18-Oct-16 20-Oct-16 500 5.0 37.0 44.0 T+7.0


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.1% wins (60 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,940 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Middle TN State U 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 472 5.0 38.0 50.0 T+12.0
Vanderbilt 19-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 1000 3.4 33.0 44.0 T+11.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 31-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 700 3.6 35.1 48.4 T+13.3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 30-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 1138 2.9 40.0 49.0 T+9.0
Dixie Strategies 27-Oct-16 29-Oct-16 980 3.1 39.4 51.5 T+12.1


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Trafalgar Group 03-Nov-16 05-Nov-16 1350 2.7 29.5 40.0 T+10.4
Y2 Analytics 01-Nov-16 03-Nov-16 500 4.4 24.0 33.0 T+9.0
Emerson 31-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 700 3.6 19.6 39.8 T+20.2
Monmouth 30-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 402 4.9 31.0 37.0 T+6.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WCAX 19-Oct-16 22-Oct-16 603 4.0 50.1 22.4 C+27.7


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 99.7% wins (99,658 wins ), Trump: 0.3% wins (342 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hampton U 02-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 802 4.4 45.0 41.0 C+4.0
CNU 01-Nov-16 06-Nov-16 1193 3.6 48.0 42.0 C+6.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 3076 1.8 46.0 44.0 C+2.0
Roanoke 29-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 654 3.8 45.0 38.0 C+7.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1106 2.9 48.0 43.0 C+5.0
Emerson 28-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 800 3.4 49.0 45.0 C+4.0
GMU 27-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1024 3.5 48.0 42.0 C+6.0
Hampton U 26-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 802 4.4 41.0 44.0 T+3.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.3% wins (99,259 wins ), Trump: 0.7% wins (741 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 31-Oct-16 02-Nov-16 681 3.8 50.1 37.7 C+12.3


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
GHY 13-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 500 5.0 28.0 60.0 T+32.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Clarity 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 1129 5.1 47.0 43.0 C+4.0
Remington 01-Nov-16 02-Nov-16 2720 1.9 49.0 41.0 C+8.0
Loras Col 31-Oct-16 01-Nov-16 500 4.4 44.0 38.0 C+6.0
Remington 30-Oct-16 30-Oct-16 1772 2.9 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Marquette 26-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 1401 3.3 46.0 40.0 C+6.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U Wyoming 05-Oct-16 11-Oct-16 722 3.6 20.0 58.0 T+38.0