Are you ready for debates tonight? Well tough shit, we’re going to have Vice Presidential and gubernatorial debates. I already know who I am voting for, but I will probably tune in. Will Culp manage to sell himself in any way, or if he comes across as awful as his policies.
But before the debates, in fact right now, you should go wash your hands.
My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.
This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.
Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
 |
 |
It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.
Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
It’s not medieval or early modern Europe. You can notice that the leader is sick. And that it’s still possibly deadly. Nobody wants the President to die,but jeez, he might be dying.
Stephen: Lindsey Graham is on the ropes in South Carolina as Republicans struggle in several red state races.
John Oliver: The Supreme Court
Now This: What you need to know about the Proud Boys
Samantha Bee: How the school choice debate is failing our public schools
Americans for Decency: Good shenanigans vs. GOP purges and Трамп distractions
Biden—Harris 2020:
Songbird: A tribute to Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Vice News: Inside Portland’s turf war between proud boys and local antifascists
John Oliver: Census update.
Trevor: Wildfires.
AJ+: How Republicans pulled off a massive voter purge
Trainwreck Трамп and His Toy Storm Troopers:
Meidas Touch: Fire Susan—Susan Collins betrayed us
The Late Show: Great moments in debate history—Nuclear missile worries about Reagan’s age
The Daily Show: The GOP makes it harder for ex-felons to vote in Florida
Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Unpatriotic history
Typhoid Donnie and Other Vectors of Disease, Death, and Decay:
Robert Reich: GOP takeover of the Supreme Court—What you need to know
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Trevor: Rev. Al Sharpton—How to protest based on tangible goals
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
As of yesterday, Metro Transit and the Water Taxi are charging fares again. I know the agencies need money. But this, while the pandemic is still raging. I haven’t ridden the bus since the start of the pandemic. So I don’t know, are people now bunching up at the door?
Anyway, go wash your hands right now.
| Democratic Governors | Republican Governors |
| Mean of 23 seats | Mean of 27 seats |
There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.
After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.
Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:
Boeing haven’t confirmed it yet, but it looks like they are going to move all 787 production out of Everett. These sorts of moves were probably inevitable as Boeing have shown that breaking the union is their biggest goal.
Still and all, if it isn’t replaced with something, it won’t be good. If not for the pandemic, I wouldn’t be too worried about a return of the will the last person to leave Seattle turn out the lights era. The regional economy is more diverse than it was then. But it is the pandemic. And there aren’t too many good jobs for people without a college education.
In any event, wash your hands right now.
|
|
My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:
Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
I suppose it is about time for some analyses of the 2020 races for the U.S. Senate. As with the presidential state head-to-head polls, I’ve been collecting senate head-to-head polls for senate races. We now know the general election candidates in all races except the Georgia 2 special election and the Louisiana senate race, but we’ll be assuming that the Republican incumbents will eventually win these races.
Although these analyses are for each state in which there is a senatorial election, we will aggregate the results to look at the probability that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans or flip to the Democrats. Of course, the third possibility is a 50-50 tie, in which case the outcome of the presidential election determines which party controls the Senate. Given the strength of former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump, I’ll assume ties go to the Democrat, although occasionally I’ll report both ways. Perhaps later on, I’ll change the reporting to systematically include results each way.
As of this afternoon, I’ve collected 361 head-to-head polls in the senate races. For some state there are many polls, like the 66 polls for the N.C. senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham. For other states, there are not so many polls—like zero polls in Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Nebraska, among others. Idaho and Illinois have only one poll each, and New Jersey only has two polls. Clearly, some states have few, or no, polls because the race isn’t particularly competitive. States with many polls are either competitive, or are interesting for some other reason—perhaps there is a gubernatorial race or it is an important toss-up state in the presidential race. For North Carolina, both are true. When I have no polling in a race, the incumbent wins the state for each simulated election.
Even with 361 polls, I will always use a subset of the most current polls. Right now, my rule is to use polls taken over the past month, but that window may tighten as Nov. 3 approaches.
Let’s get on with it! After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 97,022 times, there were 2,936 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 42 times. By this analysis, if the election was held today, Democrats would have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate. If we have a Republican Vice President, the probability drops to 97% for Democrats and 3% for Republicans.
There is only one state likely to go from Democrat to Republican, and that is Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) has led in all 7 polls ever taken in this race, and he is likely to unseat Sen. Doug Jones.
There are three states likely to flip from Republican to Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has led Sen. Martha McSally (R) in all 15 polls taken in the past month. He has led in almost all of the 66 polls taken in this race going back to early last year.
In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has led in all eleven polls taken in this race going back to Aug 2019. Many of the polls showed a double digit lead for Hickenlooper.
And then there is North Carolina, where Cunningham (D) has led Tillis (R) in all 21 polls taken in the last month—one of the polls is a near tie with Cunningham up 322 “votes” to 320. We have to go back 43 polls, all the way back to June to find a poll where Tillis leads Cunningham, but only by a single “vote”: 474 to 473. Cunningham leads in a majority of older polls going back to June of 2019.
In the toss-up category, we have a surprising number of states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In Alaska, the most recent poll is tied, but the two older polls had Sen Dan Sullivan (R) leading Al Gross (D). The most recent poll in Iowa is also a tie, but going back to June, Sen Joni Ernst (R) has only carried two polls while her challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) has led in 10 polls.
In Kansas there is also a tie in the most recent poll. But Roger Marshall (R) has led Barbara Bollier (D) by 1% margins in the three polls taken since June. Mississippi is a surprise tie. Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Mike Espy (D). The only current poll has Hyde-Smith up by 1%. There were 5 previous polls, all taken before June, where Hyde-Smith had a solid lead. We definitely need more polling in Mississippi!
South Carolina is one of the most interesting of the senate races. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is being challenged by Jamie Harrison. Graham led Harrison through March, but since then, there have been three ties, Graham has had (mostly) small leads in 5 polls, and Harrison has had a small lead in one of the most recent polls.
Finally, the Georgia race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is close enough to merit mention. Perdue has led in the most recent five polls, but there were two ties, and Ossoff led in one poll before that, all within the last month. Perdue has the momentum for now, and the simulated results give him a 84% probability of keeping his seat.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
I got the flu shot last week. Was into and out of the pharmacy faster than it has ever been before. And now I will be less likely to catch or pass on another deadly virus. Still have to deal with COVID-19.
So wash your hands right now.
Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.
Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020
WaPo: The origins of policing in America.
Biden-Harris 2020:
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:
Conan: QAnon News Break—Santa Claus edition
Americans for Decency: Lying liars lie—Ted Snooze, Inc.
Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.
RIP RBG:
Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1
Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2
The ТрампPlague:
Dulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.
Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with Realitrex
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I am very uncomfortable with Pac 12 football starting again. The expanded testing is good, but geez so many of the programs that have started playing games have met with pretty serious problems. I can’t imagine there not being a major outbreak in one, and probably several, of the teams.
I certainly don’t want to blame individual players who want to play. To lose a whole year is awful. But it’s got to be up to governments and institutions to step in for public health.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
 |
 |
Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).
The judicial norms breaking is leading nowhere good. But unilateral norms breaking seems bad too. So here is my proposal if the Republicans nominate and approve a Justice to replace RBG and Democrats get a trifecta.
First off, do the maximum judicial stuff. Add 100 seats to the Supreme Court. Strip the lower courts of power, replace them with a different system, and fill that with liberal judges. The whole 9 yards.
While this is happening, propose an amendment to the Constitution. Many states have commissions or other means of making judicial appointments fair. Pick the best one and adopt it. It also fires all judges except for cases they are working on. If Republicans want a cease fire, they can pass the amendment, if not at least there will be a liberal court for a while.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!