My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:
- A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
- A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
- A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
- A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%
Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:
- Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
- Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
- Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
- In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
- Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
- Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
- In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
All of the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden are greater than 350 electoral votes (full distribution here):
- 375 electoral votes with a 2.68% probability
- 359 electoral votes with a 2.64% probability
- 369 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
- 368 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
- 363 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
- 365 electoral votes with a 1.93% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 1.87% probability
- 353 electoral votes with a 1.86% probability
- 360 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 376.6 (22.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 161.4 (22.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 374 (339, 421)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 164 (117, 199)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|6||2||Votes||polls||Votes||Biden||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.