|Democratic Governors||Republican Governors|
|Mean of 23 seats||Mean of 27 seats|
There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.
After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.
Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:
- 5000 simulations: Democrats control a majority of seats 0.0%, Republicans control a majority of seats 99.9%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 23.2 ( 0.4)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 26.8 ( 0.4)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 23 (23, 24)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 27 (26, 27)
- Democratic seats w/no election: 20
- Independent seats w/no election: none
- Republican seats w/no election: 19
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: three
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: seven
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none
This table shows the number of seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state: Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%:
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
|State||@||polls||size||Democrat||Republican||% wins||% wins|
@ Current party in office
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Under new management spews:
Count all the votes. Even the invalid ones.
Eleven Time Person Woman Man Camera TV Cognitive Noble Prize Winner in Dropping Humiliation Bombs on Rapepublican "Losers and Suckers", Elijah SFA McDotcom spews:
Grab your box of Kleenex.
Montana GOP just lost their battle to restrict election access and disenfranchise more voters.
Now Bullock has a much better shot at winning in the Senate race.
When all the people he represents get a fair chance to vote for him.
And Cooney’s chances go up against Gianforte.
Under new management spews:
2 – I don’t live in Montana.
Roger Rabbit spews:
@3 That’s obvious. You live on Mars.