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Election 2020: Gubernatorial contests

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/30/20, 9:21 pm


Democratic Governors Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats Mean of 27 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

  • 5000 simulations: Democrats control a majority of seats 0.0%, Republicans control a majority of seats 99.9%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 23.2 ( 0.4)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 26.8 ( 0.4)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 23 (23, 24)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 27 (26, 27)

Expected outcomes:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 20
  • Independent seats w/no election: none
  • Republican seats w/no election: 19
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: three
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: seven
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state: Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%:

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 22
Strong Democrat 1 23
Leans Democrat 0 0 23
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 23
Weak Republican 0 0 0 27
Leans Republican 1 1 27
Strong Republican 2 26
Safe Republican 24

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
DE 0 0 (100) (0)
IN 1 682 45.5 54.5 4.4 95.6
MO 2 1469 44.6 55.4 0.3 99.7
MT 1 525 46.5 53.5 12.7 87.3
NH 2 2317 36.5 63.5 0.0 100.0
NC 11 7571 56.5 43.5 100.0 0.0
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 2 1086 26.6 73.4 0.0 100.0
VT 1 463 30.5 69.5 0.0 100.0
WA 1 451 59.0 41.0 99.6 0.4
WV 0 0 (0) (100)

@ Current party in office

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

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Comments

  1. 1

    Under new management spews:

    Thursday, 10/1/20 at 8:33 am

    Count all the votes. Even the invalid ones.

  2. 2

    Eleven Time Person Woman Man Camera TV Cognitive Noble Prize Winner in Dropping Humiliation Bombs on Rapepublican "Losers and Suckers", Elijah SFA McDotcom spews:

    Thursday, 10/1/20 at 8:43 am

    1,
    Grab your box of Kleenex.
    Montana GOP just lost their battle to restrict election access and disenfranchise more voters.

    Now Bullock has a much better shot at winning in the Senate race.
    When all the people he represents get a fair chance to vote for him.

    And Cooney’s chances go up against Gianforte.

  3. 3

    Under new management spews:

    Thursday, 10/1/20 at 8:54 am

    2 – I don’t live in Montana.

  4. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Thursday, 10/1/20 at 3:03 pm

    @3 That’s obvious. You live on Mars.

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