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Election 2020: Stable race with a solid lead for Biden

by Darryl — Monday, 10/12/20, 8:58 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes
Mean of 175 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

  • 357 electoral votes with a 5.51% probability
  • 375 electoral votes with a 3.97% probability
  • 363 electoral votes with a 3.75% probability
  • 358 electoral votes with a 3.64% probability
  • 360 electoral votes with a 3.33% probability
  • 359 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
  • 369 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
  • 365 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
  • 381 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 363.3 (16.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 174.7 (16.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 362 (334, 401)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 176 (137, 204)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Biden 250
Strong Biden 71 321
Leans Biden 36 36 357
Weak Biden 0 0 0 357
Weak Trump 18 18 18 181
Leans Trump 24 24 163
Strong Trump 77 139
Safe Trump 62

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

1 1 EC # Total % % Biden Trump
6 2 Votes polls Votes Biden Trump % wins % wins
AL 9 1 1008 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
AK 3 2 1209 48.6 51.4 25.8 74.2
AZ 11 22 12191 51.8 48.2 99.7 0.3
AR 6 1* 799 48.9 51.1 35.3 64.7
CA 55 3 7848 69.8 30.2 100.0 0.0
CO 9 1 918 55.6 44.4 99.1 0.9
CT 7 2* 1494 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
DE 3 1 737 62.0 38.0 100.0 0.0
DC 3 0 (100) (0)
FL 29 22 18968 52.1 47.9 100.0 0.0
GA 16 14 9547 50.3 49.7 67.8 32.2
HI 4 1* 829 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 565 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1 1120 57.1 42.9 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1* 950 42.4 57.6 0.0 100.0
IA 6 9 6062 50.4 49.6 67.1 32.9
KS 6 2 1431 45.8 54.2 1.3 98.7
KY 8 2 1843 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
LA 8 1* 540 46.7 53.3 13.3 86.7
ME 2 6 4079 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 5 1834 64.7 35.3 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 5 1548 51.6 48.4 80.7 19.3
MD 10 2 1310 66.3 33.7 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1* 745 69.5 30.5 100.0 0.0
MI 16 23 15587 54.0 46.0 100.0 0.0
MN 10 4 2617 54.0 46.0 99.9 0.1
MS 6 1 951 47.4 52.6 13.6 86.4
MO 10 2 1613 47.1 52.9 5.3 94.7
MT 3 4 2525 46.0 54.0 0.2 99.8
NE 2 0 (0) (100)
NE1 1 1* 376 48.9 51.1 37.5 62.5
NE2 1 3 1258 53.7 46.3 96.5 3.5
NE3 1 0 (0) (100)
NV 6 6 4898 53.7 46.3 100.0 0.0
NH 4 4 2729 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
NJ 14 2 981 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1 816 57.6 42.4 99.9 0.1
NY 29 1 453 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
NC 15 18 12950 51.4 48.6 98.8 1.2
ND 3 2 870 40.8 59.2 0.0 100.0
OH 18 9 7138 49.9 50.1 44.1 55.9
OK 7 1 442 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1 897 59.0 41.0 100.0 0.0
PA 20 27 19351 53.2 46.8 100.0 0.0
RI 4 0 (100) (0)
SC 9 6 5258 47.1 52.9 0.2 99.8
SD 3 0 (0) (100)
TN 11 2* 1407 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
TX 38 13 10827 48.9 51.1 5.5 94.5
UT 6 1 1093 44.5 55.5 0.6 99.4
VT 3 1* 516 63.6 36.4 100.0 0.0
VA 13 1 679 52.7 47.3 85.1 14.9
WA 12 1 526 61.8 38.2 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1 494 40.5 59.5 0.1 99.9
WI 10 19 12264 53.3 46.7 100.0 0.0
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

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Related

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Monday, 10/12/20 at 10:06 pm

    Help me feed hungry voters waiting in long lines! Some are waiting for hours in pouring rain. They deserve your support, and what could provide better aid and comfort to the resistance than a slice of pizza? I’ve donated $100 (5 pizzas) to Pizzas To The Polls. Donate here:

    https://polls.pizza/

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Monday, 10/12/20 at 11:20 pm

    How Republicans will lose Florida.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/republicans-broke-floridas-unemployment-system-could-it-cost-trump-the-election/

  3. 3

    Eleven Time Person Woman Man Camera TV Cognitive Noble Prize Winner in Dropping Humiliation Bombs on Rapepublican "Losers and Suckers", Elijah SFA McDotcom spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 6:23 am

    2,
    Yeah, isn’t it funny how the mainstream corporate media behemoths like NYT and CNN, who had no shortage of resources to go look for “aggrieved, aging, white men” in coffee shops in 2017, are nowhere to be found on the 30 million people out of work. USA Today would have us all believe that this is just a Great Big American Vacation, and the only struggle is figuring out what to do with the kids.

    Once again it looks like our media, and by extension most of our political leaders, will fail to understand what is driving this massive shift in political support. And if Democrats fail to see it and fail to act on it they’ll loose all that support we worked so hard to gain.

    If Florida flips, it needs to stay flipped. Those 29 electoral votes are a deal breaker that functionally destroy the future of the GOP. And after what we’ve seen in the last four years and what we are seeing unfold right now, that is something Democrats should work tirelessly for in order to preserve democracy and the rule of law. But it won’t stay flipped if we go into 2021 catering to tax cutting, deficit hawks, and entitlement reforms the way Clinton did.

  4. 4

    Eleven Time Person Woman Man Camera TV Cognitive Noble Prize Winner in Dropping Humiliation Bombs on Rapepublican "Losers and Suckers", Elijah SFA McDotcom spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 6:42 am

    1,
    49% increase in turnout on first day of early voting in GA needs lots of pizza.
    #ChefsForThePolls
    https://chefsforthepolls.org/
    Getting it done in Georgia, where lines yesterday were around the block filled with thousands of hungry voters skipping lunch and/or dinner in order to strike a blow for democracy.
    Just sent them a C-note for you, Roger.

  5. 5

    @godwinha spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 8:15 am

    Trafalgar poll just dropped in PA: Biden 47-45.

    Also Trafalgar, although off-topic relative to this thread:

    Kelly 47-45 in AZ.

    In early September Trafalgar had Biden and Trump tied in FL.

  6. 6

    Thomas Jefferson spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 8:58 am

    Joe Biden is tight lipped about the question of packing the Supreme Court with liberal progressives judges should he win in November. Since he’s reluctant to talk about such an action, it probably means his first official act as President will be to start packing the Court.

    It’s a boneheaded move, Joe, and it will blow up in your face.

  7. 7

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 11:32 am

    @6 Off topic. Also, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/i-m-not-fan-court-packing-biden-responds-after-trump-n1243077

  8. 8

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 12:13 pm

    @4 Thanks for the heads-up on Chefs For The Polls. I added a link to their website to see if Handbill.US can generate some donations to them, too.

  9. 9

    Eleven Time Person Woman Man Camera TV Cognitive Noble Prize Winner in Dropping Humiliation Bombs on Rapepublican "Losers and Suckers", Elijah SFA McDotcom spews:

    Tuesday, 10/13/20 at 6:00 pm

    6,
    Elaborate.

    How does this “blow up in “his” face?

    If it’s going to happen, they’re going to do it the right way. Remember, Biden ran programs and budgets out of the White House for eight years already. Served more than three decades in the Senate. Got a lot of stuff done. A lot.

    He’s not like your idiot FailPresident who’s more concerned with staff loyalty than competence.
    Howz yer wall doin’?
    Koal Jerbs?
    Ukranian Drug Deals?
    Huhrduhrham?
    I’ll bet you he can get through his first six months without even launching an investigation against himself and appointing a special prosecutor. Ya think?

    You’ve grown accustomed to a certain very low standard with King ShitMidas. You won’t miss it when he’s gone. But you’ll also have to get used to people who line up the pins before rolling strikes. So if they’re going to do it they’ll get themselves a bulletproof Senate majority first by adding two new states and four new Democratic Senators.

    So yuck it up. Shake your head and wag your finger. But don’t waste your time expecting Democrats to hold the door for any more so-called moderate Rapepublicans. Not after the last four years. And not after the last few months of shutting down polling locations, locking up mail, stealing ballots, and targeting low income and minority communities for disenfranchisement, voter intimidation and even calling for criminal investigations to interrupt and prevent voting.

  10. 10

    Mike spews:

    Thursday, 10/15/20 at 8:39 am

    Pete and Repeat are sitting on the fence, Pete falls off, who is left…..blah blah blah

    Does this look familiar?

    http://horsesass.org/poll-anal.....for-trump/

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