Darryl

I left my home in Redmond at 6:00 pm yesterday for a trip to a destination a little outside of the little town of Carbonado, WA. The timing was pretty good for debate listening, as the traffic on I-405 meant I would hear most of the debate without a whole lot of interference from 60 MPH road noises. I caught just over an hour of the debate, as my aural sense was required for other tasks shortly after 7:00 pm.

Listening to the debate didn’t give me opportunity to see Obama’s “big crash”. Aurally, things simply did not come off all that negative for Obama. What stuck out for me was Mitt Romney doing two things:

Back-peddling, flip-flopping, and pivoting away from the “severe conservative” positions he held during the G.O.P. debates. For the six or so years Romney has been running for President, he has given Americans a portrait of his positions that, oddly, differ greatly from his positions while running for Senate and while running for and being Governor of Massachusetts. Last night, the Etch-A-Sketch moment happened—Romney shook up the slate. He erased that mix of conservative, ALEC, and teabag-inspired positions that got him through the primary. Obama was dumbfounded—he probably was thinking what I was saying: “What the fuck, Mitt?!?”
Lying. Romney repeatedly said things that are factually false—and did so with conviction and, well…swagger! Although Obama sometimes pointed out Romney’s “erroneous” statements, I think he was caught off guard by it a bit. He was probably thinking what I was saying, “What a FUCK, Mitt!”

When I turned off the radio shortly after 7:00 pm, my impression was that Obama came off as too timid, and should have been nailing Romney MUCH harder on his Etch-A-Sketching and untruthful statements. Timidity in a debate isn’t good unless your opponent is self destructing. And Romney wasn’t acutely self destructing.

But he was undergoing a chronic self-destruction. I mean, the media isn’t going to let him get away with lying and wholesale abandonment of the positions and policies he used to get through the primary, are they? In other words, after hearing the words each candidate was saying, I was pretty convinced that Romney had created some self-inflicted damage.

I didn’t get home until about Midnight, when I did a quick scan of the news feeds, only to learn that Obama got clobbered. Devastated. Destroyed.

Alas, I had a busy morning, so I didn’t look into it too much. Later, an Obama-supporting friend of mine on the East Coast emailed me a scathing critique of Obama, starting with an, apparently, disingenuous tribute to his and Michelle’s anniversary.

Huh! That opening bit sounded warm and genuine from the right lane of SR-520.

While eating lunch today, I spent a few minutes exploring the media reaction. I think David Frum helps me understand things:

Romney, the multimillionaire, arrived in a suit, shirt and tie that looked like they’d been purchased at Macy’s. I doubt he’ll ever wear them again, but for one night, he looked the way most non-zillionaires look when they dress for business. His manner was warm, engaged, and respectful. He looked at the president when the president spoke, and his expression revealed no asperity or disdain.

Oh shit! No wonder I couldn’t clearly see Mitt’s victory…I just couldn’t see his cheap suit, and where his eyes and Obama’s eyes were pointing. (I’ve mentioned during the G.O.P. debates about Mitt’s habit of staring attentively—almost artificially so—at his speaking opponent, so I can picture that.) Apparently, if I had watched the debate with the sound turned down, Mitt would be the hands-down winner.

The only problem: there were words spoken, as well. And while I agree that Obama didn’t attack Mitt nearly as effectively as he could have, that hardly compares to lying at Americans, right in their own living rooms—or cars. Or “disappearing” his long-held controversial positions, as if they’d never “happened.”

The problem for Romney is that a victory on style is ephemeral. The debate has left behind a record in the form of words. Going forward, he can lose the cheap suit, but will still be left with all those words…and they cheapen the whole package.

Poll Analysis: Romney takes back a couple more

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/3/12, 3:09 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 342 electoral votes	Mean of 196 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

The previous analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 344 to 194 electoral votes. Obama’s victory margin was “statistically significant,” as the analysis suggested he would win an election now with certainty.

There were a plethora of new polls released in the last couple of days. So now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, informed entirely by state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 342 (-2) to Romney’s 196 (+2) electoral votes.

This is two consecutive analyses in which Mitt Romney has gained electoral votes. Is this the end of the Convention bump for Obama? Will Romney be able to keep adding a couple of electoral votes a day?

If so, with 34 days to go, he’d still lose by five—with only 264 electoral votes. In other words, to win, Romney needs to shake loose more than two electoral votes a day, on average, through election day.

That’s the analysis. The big picture in this race can be seen from the time trends from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2011 to 03-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

Debate!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 7:14 pm

Okay, so I show up at the Montlake Alehouse and Goldy is sitting here with his daughter but wearing ear buds.

“I can’t be social right now, I’m live slogging the gubernatorial debate.”

So, I decided to do the same thing. Mostly, I’m leaning over, reading Goldy’s screen and writing it here. At least until Goldy catches on.

7:15: Catch the livestream here.

7:16: I’m jumping in on the middle of things and I hear McKenna trying to claim that failure of immigration reform is not a partisan issue.

RIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGHHH!

7:17: McKenna doesn’t want undocumented persons to have drivers licenses because it serves as an ID, too. Why wouldn’t we want undocumented persons to have ID?? I’ve never understood that. Shouldn’t they be able to show their landlord a picture ID like anyone else?

7:18: To carry Inslee’s point a bit further: Isn’t it better to document otherwise undocumented people so that when anyone interacts with them they have a valid way of knowing they are really interacting with who they think they are interacting with?

7:24: Inslee gets cut off by the moderator and McKenna complains that Inslee didn’t give specific examples. And then McKenna doesn’t give examples. Nice.

7:25: McKenna claims that the Inslee Plan is to raise taxes and give pay raises to his biggest donors. Yeah…that’s grounded in reality.

7:27: Inslee, twice now, suggests that McKenna is the (property) tax raiser he is the candidate who will not raise taxes. True or not, I’m not sure how credible the whole thing comes off as.

7:29: McKenna, “Drive by shooting!” Ooooh…scary. Rob tries a little “scare ’em into voting for you strategy, a la George W. Bush.

7:31: McKenna seems to be spending more time doing “meta-analysis” of what Inslee is saying than he is actually presenting his own positions. “Notice what my opponent is doing…making false accusations and….”

734: Both Goldy and I are streaming the debate on our computers. But the TV in the Alehouse has the baseball game on. Seattle is up on the Angels one to nothing.

7:35: Goldy seems to be taking this VERY seriously. I guess that’s what happens when you are actually paid to blog.

7:39: I briefly lost my feed, and now Goldy’s feed is like a minute ahead of mine! Damnation.

7:40: McKenna is on a first name basis with Mr. Blethen.

7:41: On I-1185, Inslee’s argument is weak…he should just point out that the fucking initiative is unfuckingconstitutional.

7:45: Other than a pro-environmental statement by Inslee, I can’t really find a difference between the candidates on the coal trains. (FWIW, I am pro-Coltrane, but undecided on coal train.)

7:56: It’s over. Inslee wasn’t, what I’d call, daring. He was sticking with his talking points. Since his is clearly up in the polls, that is a reasonable (if unsatisfying) strategy.

McKenna, on the other hand, came off as whining way too much. As I said, he whined about Inslee more than he actually answered questions. To me, it came off as rather pathetic.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 4:00 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 48% to 42%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 3:08 pm

A new Survey USA poll in the Washington gubernatorial race has been released by KING 5. The poll of 540 Washington state likely voters (4.3% MOE) found that former Rep. Jay Inlsee leads Washington AG Rob McKenna by 48% to 42%. The polling dates were not given but were probably the last few days of September.

This makes the sixth consecutive poll in which Inslee has come out ahead of McKenna.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using only data from the new poll found Inslee winning 846,579 times and McKenna winning 145,776 times. In other words, if the electiion was held today, we would expect Inslee to win with an 85.3% probability. By standard statistical inference, we would call that “within the margin of error.”

Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

The previous poll in this race was just a few days ago. It showed Inslee ahead in the race 46% to 45% from a poll taken in the 26th of September. Given how close the polls are to each other, we can pool them and jointly analyze the results of both polls. The pooled polls gives a pool of 1,040 “voters” of which 941 voted for one or the other candidate. Inslee leads in the weighted average by 47% to McKenna’s 43.5%.

Now after a million simulated elections Inslee wins 800,838 times, and McKenna wins 193,071 times. Our hypothetical election held now would go to Inslee with an 80.6% probability:

Here is what the polling has done in this race:

Clearly, the race turned around sometime in July from a small lead for McKenna to a small lead for Inslee.

How badly is Romney losing?

by Darryl — Monday, 10/1/12, 5:41 pm

Until the end of the conventions, it was not uncommon to see a media article about how close the presidential race was at the time. If anything, the articles were based on national head-to-head polls, and generally showed Obama a point or two ahead of Romney.

Since the conventions, Obama has been gaining ground in the national polls. In fact, the last such poll that wasn’t Rasmussen that showed Romney with a lead was this Gallup Tracking poll from late August.

If you’ve followed my, or almost anyone else’s, analyses of state head-to-head polls it is no secret that Romney is in deep trouble. No matter what the national polls say, it is the electoral college (and, in a tie, the House…and, you know, sometimes the Supreme Court) that elects the President. The simulated electoral college contest has Romney losing consistently and badly this entire election season.

The reason appears to be that Obama is polling stronger in swing states. Credit for this has been attributed to a better-than-average economy in particular swing states, and to the Obama campaign’s early advertising blitz that started defining Romney even before he was the party’s nominee (and with a little help from Romney’s Republican opponents).

The other explanation, which is more of an amusement than a real explanation, is that the polls are all skewed! It’s attributed to the polling this year being “the worst it’s ever been” by political pundit and lower phalange fetishist Dick Morris.

Alternatively, it is a vast left wing media conspiracy!!!1!1! Politico has a nice write-up about Teh Great Polling Conspiracy of 2012. I think Josh Marshall summarized it best:

…having been through several of these cycles, if you’re theory is based on systemic error on the part of basically all pollsters, you’re in for a long election night.

So the following information can be read in two ways. If you think the polls, when taken en masse come out about right, on average, then I will present to you a measure of just how badly Romney is losing. If you are a Poll Truther, the following information provides solid evidence of just how skewed the polls are (if you presume Romney is really leading).

Here’s what I did. I took the results of last night’s analyses (umm…after the correction). And I reran the analysis, adding a bias in Romney’s favor to each poll included in the analysis. The bias (or skew) was a fixed percentage. I began an 0% and stepped up by 1% at a time through 10%. Here is a summary of the results for Obama’s median electoral votes with 95% confidence intervals:

The graph is clear…to eke out a win, Romney has to move the electorate across the board by a remarkable 6%. That is, he is 6% behind in the polling now. That is a larger margin than the 3.5% margin in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. That’s because the math of the electoral college places more importance on certain states—and Romney need to do more to win those states.

To win with at least a 95% probability, Romney needs to shift things by 8%. To have the kind of lead that Obama now enjoys—with a solid 100% probability of winning—Romney needs a 10% shift.

Of course, this model is a bit simplified—I skew every poll for all states. It isn’t all states that have to be moved; rather it’s just a handful of “important states” that need moving. I mean, skewing Utah and Mississippi doesn’t really accomplish anything for Romney, and Massachusetts and D.C. aren’t going to be swung over no way, no how.

Here is the electoral map of a Romney victory scenario—presuming he moves voters in his favor by 6%:

Ohio and Pennsylvania plain gone—the polling now suggests they are out of reach for Romney even in this most extreme scenario where he shifts everything by 6%. Instead, a “Romeny + 6%” victory includes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Oh…and Nebraska-2, which is tied when we remove the skew.

I’m not suggesting the election is over. But it looks like Romney has an almost insurmountable task ahead of him if he is to leave the rolls of the unemployed.

Poll Analysis: Obama Romney gains a bit

by Darryl — Sunday, 9/30/12, 7:23 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 344 electoral votes	Mean of 194 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Even Newer Update: There is a real North Dakota poll that has just been released. It shows Romney leading in N.D. by 51% to 39%. The poll fails my inclusion criteria because it was conducted on behalf of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party. But there you have it.

Newer Update: Okay…stuff should be fixed now.

Update: OOPS! As was pointed out in the comment thread, I accidentally “invented” a new poll that turned N.D. blue! Alas, it was an Ohio poll that got entered for the wrong state (and then entered again for Ohio). I’ll do a new analysis soon.

The analysis a few days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by, on average, 345 to 193 electoral votes. Since then, we’ve had a plethora of new polls released, and the result is a small gain for ~~Obama~~ Romney.

Here are the new polls:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Moore	25-Sep	26-Sep	500	4.0	42	46	R+4
IA	Iowa Poll	23-Sep	26-Sep	650	3.8	49	45	O+4
IA	VCR	23-Sep	25-Sep	500	4.4	46	47	R+1
ME	Rasmussen	25-Sep	25-Sep	500	4.5	52	40	O+12
MA	Boston Globe	21-Sep	27-Sep	502	4.4	57	30	O+27
MI	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	804	3.3	50.0	46.2	O+3.8
MI	PPP	17-Sep	19-Sep	2386	2.0	51	42	O+9
NV	Marist	23-Sep	25-Sep	984	3.1	49	47	O+2
NH	ARG	25-Sep	27-Sep	600	4.0	50	45	O+5
NH	Marist	23-Sep	25-Sep	1012	3.1	51	44	O+7
NM	PPP	17-Sep	20-Sep	3111	1.8	52	43	O+9
NC	Marist	23-Sep	25-Sep	1035	3.1	48	46	O+2
OH	Columbus Dispatch	19-Sep	29-Sep	1662	2.2	51	42	O+9
OH	PPP	14-Sep	18-Sep	2890	1.8	50	44	O+6
PA	Muhlenberg	22-Sep	26-Sep	427	5.0	49	42	O+7
PA	PPP	17-Sep	18-Sep	2051	2.2	52	40	O+12
VA	ARG	24-Sep	27-Sep	600	4.0	49	47	O+2
VA	Suffolk	24-Sep	26-Sep	600	4.0	45.7	44.0	O+1.7
VA	PPP	17-Sep	19-Sep	2770	1.9	49	43	O+6
WA	Rasmussen	26-Sep	26-Sep	500	4.5	52	41	O+11

Romney continues to out poll Obama in Arizona. The three current polls, taken together, has Romney with a 95% probability of winning the state.

In Iowa, Obama leads by +4% in one poll and trails by -1% in another. Still, there are six Iowa polls taken in the past three weeks—Obama leads in four. Together they put Obama’s probability of taking the state (now) at 98%. Here is the last three months of polling:

Maine has Obama leading by +12% in the new poll. There is also a newly released Critical Insights poll that is a couple weeks old and has Obama up by +16. I didn’t see the poll until after the analyses were running; it’ll be included in subsequent analyses.

Obama hangs on to a small +3.8% in one new Michigan poll. Even so, Obama pulls over 50%. Another huge, but somewhat older, Michigan poll has Obama up by +9. With Obama leading in all eight current polls, by double digits in three of them, Obama is looking unbeatable in this state.

In Nevada, Obama’s lead is just +2% in the current poll. Romney hasn’t won any of the six current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 95% probability.

Two new New Hampshire polls have Obama up by +5% and +7%. These are Obama’s strongest showing, now giving him three of the four current polls. Romney’s chances in the state have shrunk to about 10%.

Another North Carolina poll goes Obama’s way, but by only a +2% edge. Obama now has a streak of four consecutive polls in his favor, and he takes four of the five current polls for the state. Here is what the last three months of polling look like graphically:

Two more Ohio polls go to Obama, who leads in all 12 of the polls taken over the past three weeks. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.6%. If the election was held now, we’d expect Obama to win by more than a +6% margin! Here’s the recent trend:

Pennsylvania shows, once again, that it isn’t a swing state. Obama’s +7% and +12% in the new polls fall in line with the rest of the ten current polls.

In Virginia, Obama has a puny +2% lead in two polls and a +6% lead in another. These polls make eleven taken in the past three weeks and Obama leads in every one of them. The analysis suggests Obama would win the hypothetical election now with certainty, even if by a smallish margin. The polling trend makes this apparent:

Last, but not least, we get a new Rasmussen poll in Washington, where Obama leads Romney by a solid +11%, and takes 52% of the vote. All three current polls are double digit leads for Obama…this new poll is the smallest lead.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, Obama receives (on average) ~~347 (+2)~~ 344 (-1) to Romney’s ~~191 (-2)~~ 194 (+1) electoral votes. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win a hypothetical election held now.

We can view the long term trend of this race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Sep 2011 to 30 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Looking at the media electoral vote line (purple), we see that Obama’s position is ~~stronger than at any time in the past year~~ tied with his strongest position over the past year (median of 347 electoral votes).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 9/28/12, 11:56 pm

Young Turks: on that Allen West ad.

In his own words:

The Professor and Senator Brown:

Young Turks: Scott Brown has nothing…so he goes for TEH FORM!
Maddow: Sen. Brown holds course with racial ploy.
Sam Seder: Is the Scott Brown campaign desperate, or what?
Scott Brown staffers do Indian war whoop and tomahawk chops to show their class and style.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pollster-Liberal-Media-Industrial Complex Conspiracy:

The effect of Romney’s 47% statement on the polls (via TalkingPointsMemo).
FAUX News Poll Trutherism—that must include their own polls showing Obama leading (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Tweety: Poll self delusion syndrome.
Young Turks: Dick “twinkle toes” Morris’ predictions.

MockTV: Eastwoodin’:

Jon on FAUX News’ hypocritical coverage of school lunch changes.

Latinos for Obama.

Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Good ‘ol Tommy Thompson promises to ‘Do away with Medicare and Medicaid’ (via Crooks and Liars).

Willard!

Young Turks: The Romney Torture Memo is leaked.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Mitt Romney, “the taker”
Gov. Romney’s record on education
Sam Seder: Romney begs supporters to chant his name
Flashback: Mitt Romney on harvesting companies for profits (via Political Wire).
Thom: Mitt Romney explains Bain’s zombie economics in leaked ‘harvest’ video
Thom and Pap: on Romney “harvesting” America’s middle class.
Ann Telnaes: Romney says uninsured have access to health care.
Bill Maher tries the new iPhone Romni app.
Sam Seder: Shrub gets higher favorability than Willard!
Mitt’s new health care plan
Pap: Romney is mentally falling apart.
Kimmel: on Mitt Romney’s “Too many Americans” ad.
Maddow: Romney campaign puts the ‘mess’ in messaging.
Mitt Romney: “Those people”.
Maddow: Mitt Romney wonders why airplane windows don’t roll down.
Bashir: Whose campaign is it anyway?
Mitt Romney was an ineffective Governor.
Jon: Mitt Romney gets dumber as election approaches.
Mark Fiore: Willard’s World!
Ann Telnaes: Ann Romney addresses conservative critics.
Romney’s sorry Sunday.
Ann Telnaes: Romney’s self-inflicted wounds.

Thom with even more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: Republicans crippled by fear.

Obama mask dance.

Crazy Akin:

SlateTV: Todd Akin ignores dropout deadline.
Buzz60: Todd Akin doesn’t think Clarie McCaskill was ladylike in debate.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Sen. Claire McCaskill is not “Ladylike”
Akin TV: Tod Akin’s top ten crazy moments…and so much more.

Cenk predicts Obama will win.

Jon on The Labor Dispute (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama with some straight talk:

Mock the Vote:

Samuel L. Jackson: Wake the Fuck Up!
Young Turks: On Samuel L. Jackson’s video.
OneMinuteNews: Samuel L. Jackson’s new story.
Register and vote.
Thom: The G.O.P. is turning in fraudulent voter registration forms.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Republican voter fraud.
Ed and Pap: Voter suppression tactics show GOP’s desperation
Celebrities fucken’ ROCK THE VOTE.
Young Turks: Republicans and voter fraud.

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Rep. Gohmert’s bizarre Ottoman Empire conspiracy theory.

Sharpton: The G.O.P.’s new idea…Obama lies.

SlateTV: Social media and the Presidential debates.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll: Inslee leads McKenna, 46% to 45%

by Darryl — Friday, 9/28/12, 3:44 pm

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll today that shows former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) barely leading Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) in the Washington state Governor’s race. The poll of 500 people (4.5 M.O.E), taken on Wednesday, has Inslee up 46% to 45%.

Inslee has now led in the last four consecutive polls. The last time McKenna led was in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July.

In the two previous September polls, Inslee has led by 44% to 41% and 49% to 44%. The current poll might signal that the race is tightened…alternatively, the variability we see is simply sampling error.

To assess the state of the race, I performed a Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using the sample size and proportions found only in today’s Rasmussen poll. Inslee won 558,701 times and McKenna won 428,130 times. This suggests that, if the race was held today, we could expect Inslee to win with a 56.6% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes:

If you believe the race has been stable over the past couple of weeks, we can combine the last two September polls. Now, Inslee takes 761,308 wins to McKenna’s 231,884 wins. The evidence from the past two weeks suggests that Inslee would have a 76.7% probability of coming out ahead in an election held now:

In other polling news, Survey USA released a new poll in Washington’s 6th district. The poll of 628 likely voters taken last Friday through Sunday finds Derek Kilmer (D) leading Bill Driscoll (R) by 52% to 37%.

The seat is currently held by Rep. Norman Dicks (D) who is retiring at the end of this term.

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/27/12, 12:18 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability	0.0% probability
345 electoral votes	193 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. The results were strong enough and certain enough that we would expect Obama to be the certain winner in an election held now.

Over the past two days, 14 new polls have been released, covering 12 states.

The net result is that, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 345 to Romney’s 193 electoral votes. That is a gain of +4 EVs based on the new polls and the “aging out” of some older polls. We’d have to say the the evidence is quite strong that Obama would achieve victory in a hypothetical election held today.

Here are the new polls, followed by a discussion of some of the changes over the past couple of days:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Rasmussen	25-Sep	25-Sep	500	4.5	42	52	R+10
CO	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	765	3.4	50.2	45.5	O+4.7
CT	PPP	24-Sep	26-Sep	801	3.5	54	41	O+13
FL	Insider Advantage	24-Sep	24-Sep	540	4.1	49	46	O+3
FL	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	53	44	O+9
IN	Bellweather Research	19-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	40	52	R+12
IA	PPP	24-Sep	26-Sep	754	3.6	51	44	O+7
MD	Gonzales Res	17-Sep	23-Sep	813	3.5	55	36	O+19
MA	Rasmussen	24-Sep	24-Sep	500	4.5	55	40	O+15
MO	Chilenski Strategies	20-Sep	20-Sep	817	3.4	44.3	50.2	R+5.9
OH	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	53	43	O+10
PA	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	54	42	O+12
PA	Franklin & Marshall	18-Sep	23-Sep	392	4.9	52	43	O+9
WA	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	625	4.6	56.4	38.6	O+17.8

There are a couple of bright spots for Romney, including a poll from Arizona that has Romney up by a +10%. Romney’s lead in the previous AZ poll was only +3%. The three current polls, taken together bump Romney’s chances of taking the state from 97.5% to 99.3% in an election now.

In Colorado, Obama has a +4.7% lead in the latest poll. Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 96% probability of taking the state (for now) from the poll.

Two more Florida polls go to Obama. He gets a +3% in one and a +9% in the other. Taken together the 15 current polls suggest a 99% chance of Obama taking the state—up from a 93% probability without these two new polls.

Indiana has Romney up by a respectable +12% over Obama. Indiana barely went for Obama in 2008. It seems unlikely the state will repeat that in 2012.

Another Iowa poll goes Obama’s way, this time by +7%. Romney has only led in one of the four current polls taken over the past three weeks. Taken together, Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 98% of taking the state now.

The other bright spot for Romney is Missouri, where Romney leads in a new poll by +5.9%. Together, the two current polls bump Romney’s chances from 68% to 90% of taking the state now.

Another Ohio poll goes to Obama, this one by double digits. This gives us 12 polls in Ohio over the past three weeks and every one of them goes to Obama. As a result, Obama won all 100,000 simulated elections in that state.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both go to Obama. One by +12% and the other by +9%. The eight current polls all go to Obama. The give Obama, in aggregate, a +9% lead over Romney, and suggest Obama would take the state with certainty in an election right now.

A new poll for Washington state has Obama leading Romney by +17.8%. The five current polls all give Obama double digit leads in the state.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

“Epic Romney dignity loss moment”

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/26/12, 3:01 pm

That’s the phrase Josh Marshall used to describe this clip:

I couldn’t help noticing a loss of dignity over at FOX News as well….

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 3:30 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Obama’s “post convention bump” seems to be growing. My latest Monte Carlo Analysis of the state head-to-head polls has Obama leading Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are cries from the right of ”liberal bias” in the polls. They suggest some kind of vast left-wing conspiracy among nearly all pollsters to include too many Democrats! Sure…and it’s probably orchestrated by the folks who brought us global warming….

Join us as we conspire every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. On Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Romney drops below 200 EVs

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 1:21 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes	Mean of 197 electoral votes

Beginning this analysis, I’ve narrowed the “current polling window.” The old window included all polls taken within the past month. That criterion resulted in some states with many “current” polls, including some pre-conventions polls.

The new criterion is three weeks, so that almost all the polling occurs after the conventions. You can expect the window to shrink to two weeks sometime in October.

There are two effects from shrinking the window. First, the number of individuals polled goes down for some states. With fewer respondents, we have less evidence and, therefore, uncertainty increases (all else being equal).

The other effect is that there is less smoothing of the results. That is, the results become more indicative of trends.

Taken together, we might expect that Governor Mitt Romney’s chances improve through the increase in uncertainty. We can also expect Romney’s chances to decrease as a result of a recent poll surge for Obama. As it happens, the latter has a much stronger effect. The net effect is that Romney takes a beating….

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes, and the analysis suggested that Obama would almost certainly win an election held now.

Nineteen new polls covering 13 states have appeared in the past two days. Additionally, I’ve found four older polls (one each in AL, CO, OH, and FL) by comparing my database against Samuel Minter’s database.

Here are the new polls:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AR	Talk Business-Hendrix College	17-Sep	17-Sep	2228	2.0	34.5	55.5	R+21.0
CO	PPP	20-Sep	23-Sep	940	3.2	51	45	O+6
FL	PPP	20-Sep	23-Sep	861	3.3	50	46	O+4
FL	WA Post	19-Sep	23-Sep	769	4.5	51	47	O+4
FL	ARG	20-Sep	22-Sep	600	4.0	50	45	O+5
IA	ARG	20-Sep	23-Sep	600	4.0	51	44	O+7
MI	Rasmussen	20-Sep	20-Sep	500	4.5	54	42	O+12
MN	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	800	3.5	48	40	O+8
MT	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	625	4.0	42	51	R+9
NV	ARG	20-Sep	23-Sep	600	4.0	51	44	O+7
NV	NV Retailers	19-Sep	20-Sep	500	4.4	46	46	tie
NV	PPP	18-Sep	20-Sep	501	4.4	52	43	O+9
NJ	Monmouth	19-Sep	23-Sep	613	4.0	52	37	O+15
NC	Civitas	18-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	49	45	O+4
OH	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	594	4.3	45.3	44.3	O+1.0
OH	WA Post	19-Sep	23-Sep	759	4.5	52	44	O+8
PA	Susquehanna	18-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	47	45	O+2
PA	Mercyhurst U	12-Sep	20-Sep	522	4.3	48	40	O+8
WI	WeAskAmerica	20-Sep	23-Sep	1238	2.8	52.5	41.0	O+11.5

With this new poll, seven of eight current Colorado polls go to Obama suggesting he would win an election now with about a 95% probability. One can sense from the last three months of polling that Obama is gaining slowly in the state:

Florida has Obama up by +4% in two new polls and +5 in another. Obama has now led in five consecutive polls in the state. That trend we can almost discern in Colorado is even more apparent in Florida:

Romney took the previous Iowa poll, but this new one goes +7% for Obama. The three current polls, take together, suggest Obama has a 95% chance of taking the state right now.

Another solid Michigan poll for Obama leaves him with a certain win in the state (at least, for now).

Three new Nevada polls have Obama up by +7%, +9%, and +0% (i.e. tied). It looks like Obama is regaining the lead he held there six months ago:

The Civitas Institute is a right wing think tank in North Carolina, but they release all their polls. This one has Obama leading by +4%. Obama leads in four of the six current polls and the last three in a row. Still, the weight of evidence goes very slightly to Romney. The trend seems to be in Obama’s favor:

Two new Ohio polls favor Obama, one by a whisper, the other by +8%. Looking at the three month polling trend in the state, the past few weeks have not been kind to Romney:

Obama gets his best and his worst poll in recent months in today’s Pennsylvania collection. Still, it is hard to argue that Obama’s lead isn’t solid:

Finally, a double-digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin caps off a very favorable collection of recent polls in the state for the President. Whatever momentum Romney had in the state in August seems to have almost entirely vanished:

Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 341 (+10) to Romney’s 197 (-10) electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: SC magically turns red!

by Darryl — Sunday, 9/23/12, 4:33 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes	Mean of 207 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure of “doing something about South Carolina.” The last straw was Goldy harassing me over the phone for the umpteenth time this past week. So, I caved and changed the inclusion criteria for states lacking “current polls.” Note that I did not simply drop the vexing S.C. poll, but the new inclusion criteria means that when there are no current polls, multiple old polls will be pooled.

Here is what I have been doing: If a state does not have a “current poll”, I use the single most recent poll available. Right now, the definition of “current poll” is any poll taken over the past month (this “window” will shrink as the election approaches and the pace of polling increases).

That simple rule worked pretty well in 2008. But a single, large poll in South Carolina has plagued these analyses since late last year. The poll is perfectly valid, and might even be correct in giving Obama an 85% probability of winning the state. But it is quite old, and there are other slightly older polls in the state that contradict it. What’s an analyst to do?

I modified a suggestion from Richard Pope and used an inclusion window for older polls, the length of which depends on how old the most recent poll is. Here his the new rule set:

Use only polls taken in the “current polling window” (one month, right now)
If the most recent poll is outside the current polling window and less than 3 months old, use that poll and any others taken over the prior two weeks
if the most recent poll is 3-6 months old, use that polls and any others from the prior month
if the most recent poll is 6-9 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior three months
if the most recent poll is 9-12 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior six months
if the most recent poll is more than a year old, use that poll and any other from the prior year

There are several disadvantages of this new rule set: First, it is complicated. As you know, I strive to minimize arbitrary assumptions in the methods, but now I’ve gone and added a complex, arbitrary rule. Yuck. Another disadvantage is that the new rules will tend to overestimate the winning certainty for states with multiple old polls included in an analysis. On the other hand, a state that hasn’t been polled in a long time probably hasn’t been polled much, so most of the time the single most recent poll will still be used. South Carolina is an exception. There were a bunch of polls taken late last year. I believe this happened because there was “piggyback” polling of the general election by pollsters covering the contentious G.O.P. primary in that state.

Okay…so let’s get to it. Just three days ago the analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 336 to 202 electoral votes. The results suggested that, if an election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.

In the three days since my previous analysis, there have been some 19 new polls (plus, I am including an old poll, previously overlooked). Here are the polls:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	45	48	R+3
CA	PPIC	09-Sep	16-Sep	995	4.4	53	39	O+14
CO	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	45	O+3
CO	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	971	3.1	50	45	O+5
FL	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	800	3.5	48	47	O+1
FL	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	47	48	R+1
GA	InsiderAdvangage	18-Sep	18-Sep	483	4.5	35	56	R+21
IA	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	898	3.3	50	42	O+8
NE	Wiese Res	17-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	40	51	R+11
NE2	Wiese Res	17-Sep	20-Sep	400	4.9	44	44	tie
NC	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	46	O+2
NC	High Point	08-Sep	18-Sep	448	4.7	48	44	O+4
OH	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	44	O+4
OH	FOX News	16-Sep	18-Sep	1009	3.0	49	42	O+7
OH	Ohio Poll	13-Sep	18-Sep	861	3.3	51	45	O+6
OH	Gravis Marketing	07-Sep	08-Sep	1548	2.7	47.3	43.2	O+4.1
PA	Rasmussen	19-Sep	19-Sep	500	4.5	51	39	O+12
SD	Neilson Brothers	29-Aug	06-Sep	512	4.3	38.7	53.9	R+15.2
VA	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	46	43	O+3
WI	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	968	3.2	50	45	O+5

The race seems to tighten in Arizona where Romney just squeaks by with a +3%. Also, this is the first time since early June that Romney has been under 50%.

On the other hand, California tightens as well. Obama gets +14% where he used to pull in the low +20%.

Another pair of Colorado polls go to Obama, who leads in seven of the eight current polls, and seems to have a 91% chance of taking the state (in an election held now).

Florida gives each candidate a poll, by +1%. From twelve polls pooled over the past month, the ~11,000 responses go to Obama 50.8% of the time and to Romney 49.2% of the time. That translates into an 88% probability that Obama would win the state now.

The good news for Romney is that Georgia shows the strongest result for him this year.

Iowa has a strong +8% result for Obama. This poll was taken slightly before the Rasmussen poll I included last analysis that had Romney up by +3%. Even so, with Obama taking two of the three current polls, Obama would seem to have an 89% chance of taking the state right now.

We finally have some polling in Nebraska, where Romney bests Obama by +11%. That the good news for Romney. Recall that Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner of each CD, and the overall state winner gets the other two electors. The bad news for Romney is that Nebraska’s second congressional district polls at a 44% tie. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 and may do it again! (The polling report mentions that Romney has a solid lead in the other two CD’s, but the numbers are not given; instead, an older poll is used for those two CDs. Romney leads in both.)

Two new North Carolina polls go to Obama by small margins. Even so, Romney has led in five of nine current polls (and there was a tie). Overall, the pooled polls favor Romney with an 83% probability of winning an election held now.

With the three new Ohio polls, Obama has a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. Obama won 99% of the simulated elections in the state.

A double-digit lead for Obama in the newest Pennsylvania poll. Obama has won all four of the state’s current polls.

South Dakota gives Romney his first double digit SC lead of the year.

Like Ohio, the new Virginia poll gives Obama a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. But Obama only won 95% of the simulated elections in Virginia.

The new Wisconsin poll means Obama leads in all five current polls, and gives Obama a very high probability of taking the state (in a hypothetical election held now).

After a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes. Obama has a 100.0% probability of winning and Romney has a 0.0% probability of winning. And that is with South Carolina going to Romney 95% of the time.

Using the new “old poll inclusion criteria,” here is the picture of the race over time:

Hmmm…it looks pretty much like the old one that used the simple “single most recent” rule.

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

Post-debate thoughts

Poll Analysis: Romney takes back a couple more

Debate!

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 48% to 42%

How badly is Romney losing?

Poll Analysis: Obama Romney gains a bit

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

Poll: Inslee leads McKenna, 46% to 45%

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

“Epic Romney dignity loss moment”

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

Poll Analysis: Romney drops below 200 EVs

Poll Analysis: SC magically turns red!

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