Darryl

My analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 299 to 239 electoral votes, and Obama with a probability of winning a hypothetical election now by 93%. I pointed out that the race had stabilized and, perhaps, slightly swung in favor of Obama.

Today’s polls are consistent with the idea that the race has stabilized. We see Romney bouncing up a handful of electoral votes, but Obama’s gaining a bit more in his probability of winning an election now.

Here are the 36 new polls covering 16 states released over the past couple of days:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	44	52	R+8
CA	PPIC	14-Oct	21-Oct	993	4.0	53	41	O+12
CO	Purple Poll	23-Oct	25-Oct	600	4.0	47	46	O+1
CO	PPP	23-Oct	25-Oct	904	3.3	51	47	O+4
CO	Keating	23-Oct	24-Oct	502	4.4	48	45	O+3
CO	PNA	23-Oct	24-Oct	500	4.4	46	43	O+3
CO	Marist	23-Oct	24-Oct	1128	2.9	48	48	tie
FL	Rasmussen	25-Oct	25-Oct	750	4.0	48	50	R+2
FL	Gravis Marketing	24-Oct	24-Oct	1182	2.8	49	50	R+1
FL	PNA	23-Oct	24-Oct	600	4.0	47	45	O+2
FL	Susquehanna	22-Oct	24-Oct	1001	3.1	46	51	R+5
IA	Gravis Marketing	24-Oct	24-Oct	517	4.3	50	46	O+4
IA	PPP	23-Oct	24-Oct	690	3.7	49	47	O+2
MN	St Cloud State U	17-Oct	26-Oct	601	5.0	53	45	O+8
NV	CallFire	23-Oct	25-Oct	909	3.4	50	46	O+4
NV	Gravis Marketing	24-Oct	24-Oct	955	3.2	50	49	O+1
NV	Marist	23-Oct	24-Oct	1042	3.0	50	47	O+3
NH	New England College	23-Oct	25-Oct	571	4.1	49	46	O+3
NM	PPP	23-Oct	24-Oct	727	—	53	44	O+9
NY	Siena	22-Oct	24-Oct	750	3.6	59	35	O+24
NY	Marist	18-Oct	21-Oct	565	4.1	61	35	O+26
NC	Gravis Marketing	24-Oct	24-Oct	1723	2.4	45	53	R+8
NC	PPP	23-Oct	25-Oct	880	3.3	48	48	tie
NC	Grove Insight	23-Oct	24-Oct	500	4.4	47	44	O+3
NC	Civitas	20-Oct	21-Oct	600	4.0	47	48	R+1
OH	CNN/OR	23-Oct	25-Oct	741	3.5	50	46	O+4
OH	Purple Strategies	23-Oct	25-Oct	600	4.0	46	44	O+2
OH	ARG	23-Oct	25-Oct	600	4.0	49	47	O+2
OK	SoonerPoll	18-Oct	24-Oct	305	5.6	32.8	58.7	R+25.9
PA	Rasmussen	24-Oct	24-Oct	500	4.5	51	46	O+5
VA	Purple Strategies	23-Oct	25-Oct	600	4.0	47	47	tie
VA	Rasmussen	24-Oct	24-Oct	750	4.0	48	50	R+2
VA	FOX News	23-Oct	24-Oct	1126	3.0	45	47	R+2
WI	Rasmussen	25-Oct	25-Oct	500	4.5	49	49	tie
WI	Grove Insight	24-Oct	25-Oct	500	4.4	48	43	O+5
WI	PPP	23-Oct	24-Oct	827	3.4	49	47	O+2

You may recall from early October, a Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona that had Obama leading by +2%. We finally get a new poll from the state. And it has Romney leading Obama by +8%. The new poll seems consistent with most earlier polls, suggesting the Rocky Mountain poll was an outlier. Even so, the Rocky Mountain poll was notable because they provided both English and Spanish language live interviews, thereby likely capturing a more representative sample of Latino voters. Why is that important? University of Washington Political Science Professor Matt Barreto explains.

Five Colorado polls were released, none of which showed Romney leading. There was one tie, and Obama had smallish margins in the rest. Of the seven current polls Romney leads in one. Even so, the very small leads for Obama only put him at a 79% probability of winning right now.

Four new Florida polls go 3:1 in favor of Romney. In the past 10 days, there have been 11 polls taken, and Obama only leads in three (plus there is one tie). Romney takes away an 86% probability of winning at this point in the race.

In Iowa, two new polls show Obama leading by small (+4%, +2%) margins. Romney only leads by +1% in one of the six current polls. Obama is at a 92% probability for taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading Romney by +8%. With only two current polls Obama is at a 95% probability of winning now.

The three new Nevada polls favor Obama by small margins, and by 50% in each case. Obama leads in all seven current polls, and is at a 96% probability.

Just a week ago, New Hampshire was looking to be in Romney’s column. Today’s poll gives Obama a +3% and three of the six current polls, and Obama’s margins are greater than Romneys. Together, the evidence suggests Obama would take the state now with a probability of 77%.

New Mexico remains rock solid for Obama with this new +9%.

Four new North Carolina polls tell a mixed story. Romney has a +8% in one and a +1% in another, Obama leads one by +3% and one is tied. In aggregate, however, it is pretty clear that Romney is ahead overall. He leads in three of the six current polls, with stronger leads. Taken together, Romney is at a 94% probability of taking the state now.

Three more Ohio polls go to Obama, but by small margins. We now have 14 current polls, and Obama leads Romney eleven to one with two ties. The net result is that Obama is at a 97% probability of taking this most important of swing states.

Another Pennsylvania poll goes to Obama by a single-digit +5%. But Obama is at 51% in this poll. The four current polls all go to Obama by similar small margins.

Virginia keeps us guessing with Obama and Romney splitting a new poll at 47% each. Here is how close the state is. Each candidate leads in three polls of the seven current polls, and there is a tie. There are 4,970 total “votes” therein, of which Romney gets just 10 more than Obama. That’s close!

Two of the three new polls in Wisconsin goes to Obama, and the third is a tie. Romney does not lead any of the six current polls, so Obama earns a 92% probability of winning the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,432 times and Romney wins 6,568 times (including the 487 ties). We get a split decision. Obama received (on average) 294 (-5) to Romney’s 244 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 6.6% (-0.4%)probability of winning.

Here is the long term trend in this race, found from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ):

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Worse than Bush–Cheney?!?

by Darryl — Friday, 10/26/12, 12:19 am

Over at The Ave a guest editorial appears from Robert called, “The Worst Case Scenario” (my emphasis):

Assuming Romney & Ryan (these lethal bozo’s should not have even been close) win their attitude of extreme conservative austerity, the sworn oath of the Tea party politicians to never raise taxes on the wealthy and the republican obsession to regain power by sabotaging the black man’s presidency at any cost will result in America’s very own holocaust. The next four years will include a collapse of the American economy, drastically increased unemployment, destroy the social safety net, gut the public schools system, close the US Post Office, deprive millions of healthcare, expand the war on collective bargaining and working people, on women, on the underemployed, on minorities, end fair elections, end affordable higher education, reinforce a corporate dominated supreme court, keep money in politics, start unnecessary wars resulting in millions of casualties, destabilize world peace, put global warming on steroids which could be the beginning of the end of the human species. The Tea party republicans then would give the trillions they skin for social services to the already obscenely rich and a bloated military.

Robert argues his case from these premises.

To me, the essay is a little over the top, and a little on the pessimistic side. But it raises a good question: “What is the worst case scenario for a Romney–Ryan presidency?”

I remember when Shrub more-or-less won in 2000. I imagined that we were in for a depressing four years in which not much got accomplished except the decimation of the responsible fiscal budgetary policy of the Clinton administration.

And then came 9/11.

Rather than impeaching the President for ignoring a memo titled, “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US”, America reacted by turning over and playing dead.

The nine years that followed were a worst case scenario, from throwing fiscal responsibility totally out the window, starting two wars, including one that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, allowing N. Korea to develop and test a nuclear weapon, providing for unprecedented powers of spying on the American people, creation of the seemingly biblically inspired Department of Homeland Security and the fucking TSA (together a huge expansion of the federal government), sanctioned torture in our name, indefinite detention, vilification of Islam, and the Roberts/Alito court.

And the whole clusterfuck was capped by the collapse and near-ruin of the U.S. economy.

Man…that was some shitty scenario! But not really on the level of a holocaust—except, maybe, what happened in Iran.

Would a Romney–Ryan administration be worse than that? I cannot imagine it so…

But, then again, I could not foresee the profound wounds that the Bush–Cheney administration would end up inflicting on my country.

So what do you think? Am I not pessimistic enough? Is Robert too pessimistic? Seriously, what is the likely and the worst case scenarios from a Romney–Ryan administration?

Just how bad could it get?

Poll Analysis: Obama gains, race has stabilized

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/25/12, 11:59 am

Obama	Romney
93.0% probability of winning	7.0% probability of winning
Mean of 299 electoral votes	Mean of 239 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

[Note: This analysis was completed this morning, but publication was delayed for the two previous posts. New polls are probably out by now…they will be included in my next analysis.]

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 292 to 246 electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis give Obama a 93.4% and Romney a 6.6% probability of winning an election held now.

There was a boatload of new polls released in the past couple of days. But before discussing them, I should point out, that I am now using a ten-day “current poll” window. This means the analysis works with polls taken within the past ten days whenever possible. Next Tuesday, if enough polls are being released, I’ll shrink the window down to one week. After some poll talk, I’ll discuss the effect on the results of shrinking the window.

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AR	AR Poll	09-Oct	14-Oct	642	4.0	31	58	R+27
CT	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	52	45	O+7
CT	Quinnipiac	19-Oct	22-Oct	1412	2.6	55	41	O+14
CT	SurveyUSA	19-Oct	21-Oct	575	4.2	53.4	39.5	O+13.9
CT	Mason-Dixon	15-Oct	17-Oct	626	4.0	49	42	O+7
FL	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	759	3.6	46.8	46.6	O+0.2
FL	Mellman Group	18-Oct	21-Oct	800	3.4	47	47	tie
IN	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	754	3.6	38.3	51.5	R+13.2
MA	WBUR	21-Oct	22-Oct	516	4.4	56	36	O+20
MI	Baydoun	22-Oct	23-Oct	1122	2.9	46.9	46.6	O+0.3
MN	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	51	46	O+5
MT	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	828	3.4	41.3	47.5	R+6.2
NE	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	783	3.5	31.4	42.9	R+11.5
NV	PPP	22-Oct	24-Oct	636	3.9	51	47	O+4
NV	Rasmussen	23-Oct	23-Oct	500	4.5	50	48	O+2
NV	ARG	19-Oct	22-Oct	600	4.0	49	47	O+2
NH	Rasmussen	23-Oct	23-Oct	500	4.5	48	50	R+2
NH	ARG	19-Oct	22-Oct	600	4.0	47	49	R+2
NH	Lake	18-Oct	22-Oct	400	4.9	48	45	O+3
NY	Marist	18-Oct	21-Oct	565	4.1	61	35	O+26
ND	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	807	3.4	39.3	49.4	R+10.1
ND	Rasmussen	17-Oct	18-Oct	600	4.0	40	54	R+14
ND	Essman	12-Oct	15-Oct	500	4.4	32.4	56.8	R+24.4
OH	Rasmussen	23-Oct	23-Oct	750	4.0	48	48	tie
OH	Time	22-Oct	23-Oct	742	3.0	49.3	43.7	O+5.7
OH	Lake	20-Oct	23-Oct	600	—	46	44	O+2
OH	SUSA	20-Oct	22-Oct	609	4.1	47.2	44.2	O+3.0
OH	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	810	3.4	49.9	45.2	O+4.7
PA	Pharos	19-Oct	21-Oct	760	3.6	49.5	45.5	O+4.0
VA	PPP	23-Oct	24-Oct	722	3.6	51	46	O+5
VA	Mellman Group	18-Oct	21-Oct	800	3.5	46	45	O+1
WA	Strategies 360	17-Oct	20-Oct	500	4.4	52	39	O+13
WI	Mason-Dixon	15-Oct	17-Oct	625	4.0	48	46	O+2

Two new Florida polls both have the candidates tied. Still, Romney takes four of the seven current polls, giving Romney a thin +1.4% lead in “votes” and a 77% probability of winning an election held now.

Indiana polls are notable because they are relatively rare. This new poll confirms that Romney has a good lock on the state.

Michigan turns in a squeaker…essentially a tie, with Obama up by +0.3%. With one other current poll giving Obama a +6%, Obama holds a 79% probability of winning the state.

The new poll in Minnesota is the only current poll for the state. With Obama up by a thin +5%, his probability of winning the state is 79%.

We get a new Nebraska poll showing Romney up by +11.5%. Unfortunately, we don’t get the breakout of the Nebraska congressional districts. Mid-September was the last time we had a poll for NE-2, and that showed a 44%–44% split. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 by +1.2%, so in the event of close race, NE-2 could end up being kingmaker.

Three new Nevada polls all go to Obama by quite small margins (+4%, +2% and +2%). In total, we have six current polls and they all favor Obama, giving him a 96% probability of winning now. The last three months of polling in the state tell a story of a small, but stable, lead:

Three new New Hampshire polls go 2:1 for Romney. In fact, the candidates split the six current polls. Obama comes out +1.4% ahead in the “votes”, largely on the strength of one University of New Hampshire poll.

Three North Dakota polls in one week? Go figure! But, no doubts, either. Romney is double-digit solid there.

Five new polls come in for Ohio. Romney takes exactly zero of them, although the Rasmussen poll is a tie, and Obama’s leads are pretty small. The current polls support a small lead for Obama, and jointly give him a 96% probability of winning right now. The past month of polling in this race shows a race that has been stable with, on average, a small advantage for Obama:

Pennsylvania supports Obama over Romney by +4.0%. The three current polls give Obama a +4% advantage that translates into a 90% probability of winning the state now.

Two new Virginia polls give Obama a +5% and +1% edge over Romney. With three of four current polls in Obama’s column, Virginia turns blue. Obama’s lead is tenuous, however, and he has only a 67% probability of winning the state now.

In the new Washington poll, Obama gets a solid double-digit lead.

Obama gets a narrow lead in the new Wisconsin poll. With all three current polls giving him a small lead, Obama gets a 90% probability of winning an election now in the state.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,023 times and Romney wins 6,977 times (including the 611 ties). Obama received (on average) 299 (+7) to Romney’s 239 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.0% (-0.4) probability of winning and Romney would have a 7.0% (+0.4) probability of winning.

The large batch of new polls, combined with the ten-day “current poll” window, has increased Obama’s expectation for electoral votes by +7, but slightly reduced the probability of winning. The reduced probability reflects the fact that the smaller window results in a smaller number of polls and, therefore, polled individuals. And a smaller sample of “voters” increases uncertainty in the outcome. Essentially the ten-day window throws out older evidence. That way, if the race is undergoing shorter changes in the weeks before the election, the analysis will more likely pick them up.

The time series graph (from elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 25 Oct 2011 to 25 Oct 2012 [FAQ]), it looks like Romney’s post-first-debate gains peaked a week or two ago. The race has, at least, stabilized, and Obama’s slight gain may be a sign of the trend reversing. It’s too early to claim that Obama has the momentum, however.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: McKenna takes the lead

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/25/12, 1:09 am

A new Elway poll has Washington state AG Rob McKenna leading former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee, 47% to 45%. The poll comes on the heels of a Strategies 360 poll showing the race tied up. The Elway poll surveyed 451 likely voters (4.5 MOE) from 18 Oct to 21 Oct.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, based only on the responses to this poll, gives McKenna wins 617,196 times and Inslee wins 369,576 times. The analysis suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 62.5% probability and Inslee would win with a 37.5% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

This new poll is one of five recent (October) polls trying to assess this race, and they largely overlap:

	Start	End	Sample		%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Inslee	McKenna
Elway	18-Oct	21-Oct	451	4.5	45.0	47.0
Strategies 360	17-Oct	20-Oct	500	4.4	46.0	46.0
PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	48.0	42.0
SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	47.0	44.0
Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	47.1	46.3

If you believe the dynamics of this race have not changed much over the several weeks, then a pooled analysis of the five polls can provide additional evidence of the state of the race.

The pooled sample provides 2,712 “votes”, of which 2,487 are for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee receives 1,267 “votes” (46.7%), and McKenna receives 1,220 “votes” (45.0%).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 745,625 wins and McKenna 249,491 wins. The analysis suggests that, for an election held now, Inslee would win with a 74.9% probability and McKenna would win with a 25.1% probability:

It’s hard to say which of these two analyses better reflect the dynamics of the race. But, it would be naive to deny that this race has tightened up in the past few weeks.

The Elway poll has a pretty small sample, which means there is more sampling error; but, combined with the Strategies 360 poll, it is perfectly justifiable to suggest that McKenna is really in the lead now.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/23/12, 12:26 pm

We had a great turn-out at the special debate edition of Drinking Liberally last night—a lot of new faces. Tonight we’ll have our regularly-scheduled gathering. Please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Our gatherings are informal. If you show up and don’t immediately recognize the pack of liberals, ask a bartender or server.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? You have options. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. And on Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied up

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 9:30 pm

Strategies 360 has released a new poll that covers, among other things, the Washington state gubernatorial race between former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and state AG Rob Mckenna (R). The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4% MOE) was taken from the 17th to the 20th of October.

The poll is tied up at 46% when leaners are included. (Without leaners, Inslee leads McKenna 43% to 40%, but my policy is to work with the numbers that include leaners.)

Obviously, at 50% each there is little point at running a Monte Carlo analysis. But, we now have four polls covering this race over the past several weeks:

	Start	End	Sample		%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Inslee	McKenna
Strategies 360	17-Oct	20-Oct	500	4.4	46.0	46.0
PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	48.0	42.0
SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	47.0	44.0
Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	47.1	46.3

So, it would be worth analyzing all four of these polls together. The pooled polls gives a sample of 2,801 of which 2,558 go for one or the other candidates. Inslee gets 1,323 (47.2%) of the “votes” and McKenna gets 1,235 (44.1%).

The Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the pooled data gives Inslee wins 890,208 times and McKenna wins 107,592 times. If the election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 89.2% probability and McKenna with a 10.8% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Clearly, what we have had all October is a very close race, but one in which Inslee has maintained a small edge. It looks to me like the race has tightened up a bit since September, as frequently happens in the final weeks of an election:

The poll had a number of other interesting results for other races as well:

Obama 51%, Romney 35%
Initiative 1240 (Charter schools): 51% support, 34% oppose
Initiative 502 (marijuana): 54% support, 38% oppose
Referendum 74 (Uphold same-sex marriage law): 55% approve, 38% reject

The poll also asked people’s opinion on some topics. In looking for strategies to raise revenue to meet the Supreme Court’s ruling to better fund public education, 54% supported and 41% opposed an income tax on people making more that $200K. For capital gains tax on investment income, 47% supported the idea and 44% opposed. What people really hated was increases in state property tax, sales tax or B&O tax. Most people (59% support, 36% oppose) support an increase in state funding for higher education.

All in all, this survey makes Washington state look solid blue—except for that squeaker of a gubernatorial race.

Debate open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 5:23 pm

The last in a series of presidential debates is on tonight, featuring President Barack Hussein Obama II (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R).

This debate will focus on foreign policy. But since Willard has little foreign policy experience beyond a courtesy visit to London (plus Israel and Poland) so that he could totally avoid watch Ann’s dressage horse compete in the Olympics, be prepared for the candidates to twist everything back into domestic issues.

I’ll be at the Montlake Ale House liveblogging as I can. Please join me there, or have fun in the comment threads, if you prefer.

6:04: Romney wins!!!! (the coin toss.)

6:05: Mitt opens with a lot of babbling and proclaims, “We can’t kill out of this mess.” Uh-huh.

6:08: “Gov. Romney, you strategy has been all over the map.” Certainly is was based on his opening answer.

6:09: Mitt wants “Gender equality”. Does he really know what he is saying? But this second answer is so babbly it’s hard to know what he is saying.

6:12: Obama hits Romney HARD on his inconsistent positions on foreign policy.

6:13: Romney hits Obama back on the “after the election” comment to Putin.

6:15: After a short bicker-fest, Obama comes out with a pretty coherent positive agenda.

6:18: Romney doesn’t have a plan for Syria…he just regurgitates factoids about the situation. Then, when he gets down to “action” points, his plan is what the Obama administration is ACTUALLY DOING RIGHT NOW. Sheesh!

6:21: Obama complements Romney on supporting the Obama administration on Libya and then punches him in the nose on his “mission creep” statement.

6:23: Mitt Romney tells us what “we all hear intelligence sources saying”. Damn…I can’t say…left my national security briefing binder at home.

6:27: Mitt declares himself a peacenik

6:28: Both candidates work in domestic issues. Obama did a better job sneaking it in. Romney criticizes the sequestration cuts…as if that’s Obama’s doing!

6:30: Mitt gives a speech directed toward the Priests of the Military Industrial Complex.

6:31: Obama does it again—turning the debate into a list of his accomplishments.

6:32: Obama hits below the belt…”[Romney] praised George Bush for his economic stewardship and Dick Cheney for ….”

6:34: Romney said “teacher’s unions” and Obama looked down! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooo……!!!!!!

6:36: We are now on the topic on whether class size makes a difference. In Afghanistan?!?

6:37: Obama gets surly while Romney babbles on about “his” education successes in MA.

6:39: No, Governor, we cannot afford to repeal Obamacare.

6:40: Obama gets his do-over from Debate 1: “five trillion dollar tax cuts…military spending that the military isn’t asking for…”

6:41: I’m watching NBC. Why is Obama on the right and Romney on the left? This is a conspiracy!!!!

6:42: Romney, “I balanced the budget for the Olympics”. Yes…Governor, with a little help of your taxpayer friends.

6:43: Obama finally defends himself against Romney’s bullshit of blaming Obama for sequestration cuts.

6:44: Obama lands a left hook with the “horses and bayonettes” zinger. Perhaps the best zinger of all three debates!

6:48: Mitt’s flaggey-flag pin is bigger. Obviously, he loves America more.

6:49: Mitt Romney thinks Ahmadinejad has committed more war crimes and crimes against humanity than George W. Bush and Dick Fucking Cheney???? Very curious.

6:51: We have about 20 folks at the Ale House who are, apparently, here for the debate.

6:54: Note to Obama…watch out for Tagg Romney running toward you….

6:55: Obama contrasts his visit to Israel with Romney’s…it seems pretty effective!

6:59: Mitt lets us know he has “a relationship with the Prime Minister of Israel.” No doubt he cultivated that relationship the same way he cultivated a relationship with the Prime Minister of the U.K.

7:01: Obama goes after Romney hard on his flip flopping. I noticed, he always ends those bits with a positive message. Good debate coaching.

7:04: Mitt just told all the terrorists when he will pull out of Afghanistan. Why does he hate our soldiers?

7:08: Bob: “Obama bin Laden”

7:10: I’ve heard Mitt say lots of things about Pakistan, but I am still not sure where he stands and what he would do?

7:11: Mitt drones on about his support for Drones. But, but, but, I thought we couldn’t “kill our way out of this”

7:14: Trending on Twitter (US): #horsesandbayonets

7:18: Via Twitter:

Abby Huntsman ‏@HuntsmanAbby
I’ve never heard two candidates agree more during what is suppose to be a “debate.”

7:17: Mitt wants to label China a “currency manipulator.” That will bring them to their knees.

7:21: Obama pushes the “Romney has bad political instincts” meme: outsourcing, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”, etc.

7:23: Mitt: “I would do nothing to hurt Detroit.” Obama calls him out on that bullshit.

7:25: “Governor, you keep on trying to airbrush history.” Look up history here.

7:28: Romney keeps bringing up the same old bullshit about how much worse things are now then they were when Obama came into office. Two words: “Bikini Graph”

7:31: Mitt: “I want to see growing peace in this country.” Huh? This is the kind of thing that is said when politicians are on autopilot.

7:38: Promoted comment from Michael:

Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

7:47: Debriefing: Michael nails it. Romney etch-a-sketched so far back to the center that he was, essentially, agreeing with Obama more than he was disagreeing. That ends up being a huge problem for him. After all, the power of incumbency is that given identical choices, the devil you know is better than the identical devil you don’t.

But, of course, the other problem is that by becoming The White Obama, he contradicts his past “non-Kenyan” self. You know, like most of the stuff he said in the G.O.P. primary. His strategy depends on potential moderate supporters not being disturbed by his total abdication of past positions. That may have worked 20 years ago, but in the age of The Twitter and a plethora of other social media…maybe not so much.

Poll Analysis: A small surge for Romney

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 3:33 pm

Obama	Romney
93.4% probability of winning	6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 292 electoral votes	Mean of 246 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

We’re at an interesting point in the presidential race. I’ve been running analyses a couple of times a day as new batches of polls are found and entered, and the race has bounced up and down with each batch of polls. (I had a pretty packed weekend, so didn’t have the opportunity to post any of these analyses since my previous analysis.)

For example, yesterday afternoon, Romney was down to about 3% probability of winning. By yesterday late evening, with a few more polls, Romney had surged to something around 17%.

Today’s batch of polls have been mixed, but slightly more favorable to Obama.

Here they are:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CA	Reason-Rupe	11-Oct	15-Oct	508	5.1	53	38	O+15
CO	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	46	50	R+4
DC	PPP	12-Oct	14-Oct	1222	2.8	88	8	O+80
FL	PPP	18-Oct	18-Oct	800	4.0	47	48	R+1
FL	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	750	4.0	46	51	R+5
FL	SurveyUSA	17-Oct	18-Oct	600	4.1	47.5	45.5	O+2.0
FL	FOX News	17-Oct	18-Oct	1130	3.0	45	48	R+3
FL	CNN/OR	17-Oct	18-Oct	681	4.0	48	49	R+1
IA	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	48	48	tie
IA	PPP	18-Oct	19-Oct	660	3.8	49	48	O+1
IA	PPP	17-Oct	19-Oct	869	3.3	48	49	R+1
MD	WA Post	11-Oct	15-Oct	843	4.0	60	36	O+24
MO	PPP	19-Oct	21-Oct	582	4.1	46	52	R+6
MO	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	500	4.5	43	54	R+11
NV	Mellman Group	15-Oct	17-Oct	600	4.0	51	43	O+8
NH	U NH	17-Oct	21-Oct	773	3.5	51	42	O+9
NH	PPP	17-Oct	19-Oct	1036	3.0	48	49	R+1
NJ	SurveyUSA	17-Oct	18-Oct	577	4.2	56.3	41.5	O+14.9
NJ	Stockton	12-Oct	18-Oct	811	3.5	53	38	O+15
NC	Grove Insight	17-Oct	18-Oct	500	4.4	47	44	O+3
OH	Suffolk	18-Oct	21-Oct	600	4.0	46.5	46.7	R+0.2
OH	PPP	18-Oct	20-Oct	532	4.3	49	48	O+1
OH	Quinnipiac	17-Oct	20-Oct	1548	3.0	50	45	O+5
OH	Gravis Marketing	18-Oct	19-Oct	1943	2.2	47	47	tie
OH	FOX News	17-Oct	18-Oct	1131	3.0	46	43	O+3
OR	SurveyUSA	16-Oct	18-Oct	579	4.2	48.9	42.3	O+6.6
PA	Gravis Marketing	21-Oct	21-Oct	887	3.3	48	45	O+3
PA	Muhlenberg	17-Oct	21-Oct	444	5.0	50	45	O+5
UT	U UT	08-Oct	13-Oct	206	7.6	21	74	R+53
VA	PPP	18-Oct	19-Oct	500	4.4	49	47	O+2
VA	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	750	4.0	47	50	R+3
WI	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	500	4.5	50	48	O+2

Romney leads in the new Colorado poll. The candidates split 3 and 3, the six current polls. Overall, the edge goes to Obama who earned +1% more “votes”, and would be expected to win now with a 71% probability. Here is the last three weeks of polls in a picture:

In D.C. Obama up by +80% over Romney. That’s not the probability of winning D.C.—that’s the point spread!

The five new Florida polls go 4:1 for Romney. He now leads in 9 of 11 current polls, usually by small, single-digit, margins.

Iowa must be close. We have one tie, a +1% for Romney and a +1% for Obama. Overall, with six current polls that show two ties, one lead for Romney, and three leads for Obama. Together, the polls support Obama winning with a 90% probability right now. Here is the picture:

Two new Missouri polls, two new leads for Romney.

Obama takes the new Nevada poll. He now leads in five of six current polls, and the last one is a tie. Obama’s lead is expected to hold (now, anyway) with a 96% probability.

New Hampshire has been bouncing around for the past week. A new poll give Obama a +9% and another new poll gives Romney a +1%. Of the six current polls, Obama leads in two, Romney in three (but one is very close), and there is one tie. Overall, Obama takes +1% more of the “votes” and has about a 67% probability of winning.

We only get one new North Carolina poll, and it has Obama up by +3%. But Romney leads in four of the five current polls and, overall, has better prospects for winning the state—an 83% probability at this point.

Oh, Ohio, how you tease the Obama supporters and taunt the Romney supporters! There are five new polls and Romney leads in one of these by a +0.2% edge. The raw data are 280 “votes” for Romney and 279 “votes” for Obama. One other poll is a tie, and Obama takes the rest. But from a total of 12 current polls, Obama leads in eight of them. From a total of 11,289 surveyed individuals, Obama takes 51.1% and Romney takes 48.9%. Obama would be expected to win an election now in the state with a 95% probability.

It has been a month since the last Oregon poll, and the new one finds Obama with a modest +6.6% lead over Romney.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both have Obama leading, albeit narrowly. In fact, Obama has single digit leads in seven of eight current polls, with Romney up in the eighth.

Obama takes one of the two new Virginia polls. It has been a long time since that has happened. But Romney easily leads in four of the six current polls, and one of the six was a tie. Overall, Romney gets a 69% probability of taking the state in an election right now. This is clear from the past three weeks:

The new Wisconsin poll goes to Obama, but by a tight +2%. Obama takes all five current polls, but all by small margins. Here is the big picture:

From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,430 times and Romney wins 6,570 times (including the 578 ties). Obama receives (on average) 292 (-8) to Romney’s 246 (+8) electoral votes. Obama has a 93.4% (-3.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 6.6% (+3.3%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22-Oct-2011 to 22-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Special debate edition of Drinking Liberally on Monday

by Darryl — Sunday, 10/21/12, 1:51 pm

On Monday there will be a third and final presidential debate. And that sounds like a good excuse to get together for a pint and an opportunity to watch and discuss the debate with a veritable binder-full of fellow liberals. So please join us for another Debate Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally at the Montlake Ale House on Monday evening.

Important Note: We will have sound and video for the debate. But the bar and restaurant has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Additionally, the Ale House has free WiFi for streaming audio. Ask your server for the password.

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the presidential debate begins at 6:00pm.

I’ll be liveblogging the debate here.

We’ll still have or regular Tuesday evening gathering of liberals this week, as well. I hope you can make it to one or both events.

Don’t redefine “redefine”

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 4:02 pm

Dear Person who left this in my yard:

It’s gone now…got in the way while I was raking.

But before you put up a new one, please have the courtesy to fill out the application in the box by the door. Please print legibly, and pay particular attention the the section labeled, “Next of Kin.”

Love and Kisses,
—Darryl

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 12:06 am

Jon does Barack.

Mark Fiore: microtargetting undecideds.

Sam Seder with a new edition of Random Rush.

The Candidates Have Dinner Together:

Obama and Romney joke at Al Smith dinner (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Young TurksAnalyzing Barack’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
Young TurksAnalyzing Mitt’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
Maddow: Romney camp embarks on misinformation campaign to hide extremist policy.

Sam Seder: Breaking down Benghazi; the G.O.P.’s scandalquest.

White House: West Wing Week.

Newsy: Another appeal’s court finds DOMA unconstitutional.

Sam Seder: FAUX and Fiends lose their minds over BASIC MATH.

Obama: Commit to vote.

Pap: The continuing G.O.P. war on voting.

Willard (and friends):

Stephen switches positions (via DailyKos).
Mitt Romney’s problems with women.
Young Turks: Romney to CEO’s—‘Help’ employees vote ‘right’ way
Thom: Romney encourages employers to tell employees how to vote
Stephen reveals Mitt’s plans for Day One
Romney recorded asking employers to sway worker’s votes.
Obama explains Romnesia (via Crooks and Liars):
Bashir: Diagnosing Romnesia (via The Political Carnival).
Jennifer Granholm: How Romnesia took the nation by storm.
Sam Seder: Paul Ryan’s pathetic soup kitchen photo op.
Kimmel: Mitt’s new women’s ad
Mitt’s math-challenged tax plan.
Maddow: Bush foreign policy infects Romney campaign
ONN: Mitt’s leaked Google search history!
SlateTV: Romney boys can’t contain their Obama debate anger
Tagg Romney jokes about taking a swing at the President.
Ed: Tagg shows disrespect.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Your dad is a liar…so take a swing at me (via Crooks and Liars).
Sam Seder: Tagg wishes he could punch the President
Sharpton: Tagg Romney’s ‘Take a swing at Obama’ comment is a symptom of GOP disrespect & racism
Zina Saunders: Pick-a-Prez:
Mitt Romney’s condescending views toward women

Maddow: Maricopa County Elections puts wrong election date on form—in Spanish only.

Sam Seder: Federal Appeals Court rules DOMA unconstitutional.

Jennifer Granholm: Debunking conservative myths—what your Republican uncle needs to know.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News or CNN less biased on Romney politicizing death of ex-SEAL.

SlateTV: The Boss is back!

Maddow: Party differences apparent in donor list.

Debate, Town Hall Style:

Stephen: On Megyn Kelly’s town hall debate analysis
Who won?
Key & Peele: Luther on Obama’s town hall debate win.
Thom: Myth Master Mitt Romney.
Sam Seder: Obama smacks Romney’s Libya accusations as offensive
Ann Telnaes: Biden helps Obama prepare for debate 2.
Romney’s way: He talks…you listen.
Sam Seder: Mitt Romney’s Libya FACE PLANT!
Bashir: Right-wing “act of error” on Libya
Right wing debate delusions: An ‘act of terror’ is NOT really a ‘terror attack’?!?
Ed: Right-wingers still blame Candy Crowley for Romney’s poor performance.
Newsy: Romney’s binders full of women
Conan: Obama impresses the judges.
Jon on binders full of women.
Sam Seder: Did Romney make his case for affirmative action with his binders?
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Romney’s Binders
Ann Telnaes: Another Romney binder.
Young Turks: Binders full of women—great story because MITT LIED
SlateTV: The “Binders full of women” meme
Jonathan Mann: Binders full of Women.

Young Turks: “Lowlife Scumbag”…Congressional debate gets heated.

John Fugelsang: The week in amnesia—a tale of two 9/11s:

Mitchell and Maddow: Obama touts advocacy for women.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Issa’s sensitive document dump jeoporadizes security.

Sam Seder: Rep. Joe Walsh opens up new front on the War on Women™.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Obama surges to 300

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 7:21 pm

Obama	Romney
96.7% probability of winning	3.3% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes	Mean of 238 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Our previous analysis had seen President Barack Obama slip a little but more, although he still led Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 288 to 250 electoral votes. The analysis further concluded that Obama would only have an 86.5% probability of winning an election now; Romney was at a 13.5% probability of winning.

Some new polls have arrived.

Some comments on polls: First, there were a boatload of polls released by YouGov on Tuesday. If you are an Obama fan, they look pretty encouraging. Alas, I will not be including them in my analysis, as they are on-line polls. For the same reason, I will not include this Zogby poll in Florida showing Obama up +3%.

Second, there is a new New Jersey poll from Neighborhood Research on behalf of Americans for Prosperity released yesterday. It shows Obama with a +7% lead in New Jersey.

I was very tempted to totally ignore a poll from a David Koch group formed out of the Tea Party movement. But the methods section points out that:

This poll was commissioned as a public service to provide citizens with information related to public policy.

Call me a sucker, call me a fool, but until someone can show me that this was a selectively released or intentionally biased poll, I’ll follow my rules and include it.

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CO	PPP	16-Oct	18-Oct	1000	3.1	50	47	O+3
CO	Grove Insight	15-Oct	16-Oct	500	4.4	47	44	O+3
CO	WeAskAmerica	15-Oct	15-Oct	1206	2.9	47.0	48.1	R+1.1
CT	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	1015	3.1	53	44	O+9
CT	U CT	11-Oct	16-Oct	574	4.0	51	37	O+14
CT	Siena	04-Oct	14-Oct	552	4.2	53	38	O+15
IN	Rasmussen	10-Oct	11-Oct	600	4.0	41	54	R+13
IA	Marist	15-Oct	17-Oct	1137	2.9	51	43	O+8
IA	WeAskAmerica	15-Oct	15-Oct	1499	2.6	48.7	45.9	O+2.8
MA	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	709	3.7	57	39	O+18
MA	Rasmussen	10-Oct	10-Oct	500	4.5	57	42	O+15
MI	EPIC/MRA	17-Oct	17-Oct	800	3.5	52	46	O+6
MI	Denno Research	11-Oct	11-Oct	500	4.5	44.2	40.5	O+3.7
MN	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	550	4.3	50	40	O+10
MT	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	806	3.5	43	53	R+10
MT	Rasmussen	14-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.5	45	53	R+8
NV	Grove Insight	15-Oct	16-Oct	500	4.4	50	43	O+7
NV	Rasmussen	15-Oct	15-Oct	500	4.5	50	47	O+3
NV	SurveyUSA	11-Oct	15-Oct	806	3.5	48	45	O+3
NH	Rasmussen	15-Oct	15-Oct	500	4.5	50	49	O+1
NH	Suffolk	12-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.4	46.8	47.2	R+0.4
NJ	Neighborhood Research	10-Oct	14-Oct	783	3.5	48.4	41.4	O+7.0
NJ	Quinnipiac	10-Oct	14-Oct	1319	2.7	51	43	O+8
NC	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	500	4.5	46	52	R+6
OH	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	750	4.0	49	48	O+1
OH	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	15-Oct	613	4.0	45.4	42.4	O+2.9
PA	Quinnipiac	12-Oct	14-Oct	1519	2.5	50	46	O+4
PA	Susquehanna	11-Oct	13-Oct	1376	—	45	49	R+4
WA	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	50	45	O+5
WA	Rasmussen	14-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.5	55	42	O+13
WA	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	54	40	O+14
WA	Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	51.9	42.9	O+9.0
WI	Marist	15-Oct	17-Oct	1013	3.1	51	45	O+6
WI	Marquette	11-Oct	14-Oct	870	3.4	48.5	48.1	O+0.5

Just a couple of weeks ago, Romney seemed on the road to building a solid lead in Colorado. Today, Obama has a +3% in two new polls, and Romney gets a +1.1% lead in another. But with nine current polls (and 5 of them in Obama’s favor), Obama ends up winning 71% of the elections in the state:

Two new polls in Iowa go to Obama, on by a remarkable +8% and the other one by an unremarkable +2.8%. Romney leads in none of the four current polls and the analysis suggests Obama would take the state with a 96% probability.

We also get two new Michigan polls. One has Obama up by a middling +6% and the other by an unimpressive +3.7%. Still, Obama takes all seven current polls, and Romney has not led in the past 20 polls…dating back to August. Obama is at a 99% probability of taking the state in an election now.

Two new Montana polls verify that Romney really does have a high single-digit lead. Romney is at 100% in the state.

Three Nevada polls all go to Obama by mid-single digits. Aside from one tie, Obama has led in the seven current polls. The polling trend seems to show Obama’s lead growing again and almost reaching his mid-September high:

New Hampshire flipped from Obama to Romney after the first debate. Now we may be seeing it just starting to flop back. Obama takes one of two new polls, but still lags Romney in our current polls. Based on these polls, Romney would win with a 64% probability an election held now.

Romney seem to be hanging on to his lead in North Carolina with help of this new +6%. Romney takes all five of the current polls, and would be almost certain to win the state right now:

Two new polls in Ohio both go to Obama, but by pretty small margins (+1% and +2.9%). Even so, Obama has eight of twelve current polls and his series of small leads provide evidence he would win the state in an election now with an 87% probability:

The biggest surprise of this batch of polls is that Mitt Romney finally takes the lead in one Pennsylvania poll. But, Obama leads by an equal amount in the other Pennsylvania poll, and one that is slightly larger (and newer). Overall, Obama takes seven of eight current polls, but the new one knocks Obama down to only a 92% probability of winning the state now.

Four new Washington polls give Obama leads from +5% to +14%. Combining the four current polls suggest Obama would win Washington with a probability of 100% by about +10%.

Two new Wisconsin polls both go to Obama, although one by a tiny margin. Still, with Obama up in all six current polls, it earns him a 95% probability of taking the state.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Obama wins 96,710 times and Romney wins 3,290 times (and Romney gets the 414 ties out of this, too). Obama receives (on average) 300 (+12) to Romney’s 238 (-12) electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Obama would have a 96.7% (+10.2%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 3.3% (-10.2%) probability of winning.

You could say that the past three days have not been good polling days for Romney. It is always dangerous to call a trend after a single analysis, but it look like the previous analysis marked Romney’s high water mark, about the same he achieved after the Republican convention.

This can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Oct 2011 to 18 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ). See the little upward blip?

The same upward blip can be seen in the Intrade chart of median prices that I captured this morning:

[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna, 47.1% to 46.3%

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 4:23 pm

Yes another poll has been release in the WA gubernatorial contest between former Rep. Jay Inslee and Washington AG Rob McKenna. This one is the Washington Poll. The poll surveyed 644 likely voters from October 1 to October 16.

The poll has Inslee leading McKenna by 47.1% to 46.3%. The margin of error is 3.9%. The +0.8% lead is consistent with two other recent polls. Yesterday’s PPP poll had Inslee leading by +5%. And just before that, a SurveyUSA poll had Inslee up by +3%. This new poll covers a broader, and older set of dates.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections, using only data from this new poll gives Inslee 555,393 wins to McKenna’s 432,729 wins. This suggests that, if the election was held now, Inslee would win with a probability of 56.2% and McKenna would win with a 43.8% probability.

Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Given that we have three polls that are either consecutive or overlapping, lets look at what they have to jointly say about the state of this race.

The pooled set with this new poll and the PPP and SurveyUSA polls mentioned above give us a sample of 1,761 people. Of the 1,612 who had a partisan preference, 834 (47.4%) preferred Inslee and 788 (44.2%) preferred McKenna. The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 835,698 wins to McKenna’s 160,205 wins.

Jointly, the polls suggest that in an election right now, Inslee would win with a 83.9% probability to McKenna’s 16.1% probability. Here is the distribution:

By standard statistical inference, Inslee’s lead isn’t quite “significant.” But the larger polling trend shows that Inslee holds a small, but consistent lead over McKenna:

Note: This post was originally written using the numbers for Registered Voters, simply because I hadn’t noticed that results for Likely Voters was available. I subsequently reanalyzed the data and rewrote the post to reflect the Likely Voter numbers. I regret the error…because, man, was that a pain in the ass!

Dear King County…what you need to know about The Real McKenna

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 11:17 am

Over at The Stranger, Dan Savage and Goldy have teamed up to lay out the Big Case against gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna:

Rob McKenna has been running for governor his entire adult life. And his whole electoral strategy has always relied on tricking enough King County voters—voters like you—into believing he’s not another one of those Republicans. McKenna doesn’t want you to think he’s one of those Romney/Ryan class-warfare-waging, Koch-sucking GOPers who wants to bust unions, repeal Obamacare, ban gay marriage, outlaw abortion, and unravel what remains of the social safety net, all in the service of cutting taxes on corporations and millionaires.

It is an electoral strategy that almost worked for Dino Rossi in 2004, and one that McKenna has been expertly executing for years. You may have seen those posters asking you to vote for President Obama, R-74, and Rob McKenna—McKenna opposes both President Obama and R-74—and it’s clever messaging. It is also a complete and total fucking lie. And McKenna is praying that you’re stupid enough to fall for it.

But you’re not that stupid, are you?

The piece is epic…it systematically, issue by issue, lays out the case that McKenna is NOT the politician that he has been selling to King County voters. It’s a damn fine read, too.

My guess is that, if you’ve read this far, you need no further convincing. You’ve seen the arguments before—probably right here—on each point. But you’re not like every other King County voter, because most King County voters don’t read either HorsesAss or The Stranger.

Instead, they’re reading the Seattle Times Political Action Committee. They probably haven’t a clue about the Real McKenna.

Instead, these arugula-eating, Prius-driving, war-hatin’ liberals may only be listening to KUOW and KPLU. Rob may come off as, meh, but inoffensive; they don’t see the Big Picture.

Instead they’re young, politically disengaged, voters struggling with a minimum wage jobs. They’re likely unaware of the huge stake they have in this race.

What Goldy and Dan have done is given YOU a tool: A detailed, well-written, logical, and organized portfolio of The Real McKenna.

You now have the framework to educate your family, friends and neighbors that Rob Mckenna is no Dan Evans Republican. He is much closer to a Scott Walker—just a lot smarter and more cautious.

Friends don’t let friends get fooled!

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

Poll Analysis: Romney gains EVs, Obama gains probability

Worse than Bush–Cheney?!?

Poll Analysis: Obama gains, race has stabilized

Poll Analysis: McKenna takes the lead

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied up

Debate open thread

Poll Analysis: A small surge for Romney

Special debate edition of Drinking Liberally on Monday

Don’t redefine “redefine”

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

Poll Analysis: Obama surges to 300

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna, 47.1% to 46.3%

Dear King County…what you need to know about The Real McKenna

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