|98.9% probability of winning||1.1% probability of winning|
|Mean of 309 electoral votes||Mean of 229 electoral votes|
My previous analysis was completed early Friday morning, before most polls were released. The analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes (on average). In an election held yesterday, Obama would be expected to win with a 94.4% probability, and Romney with a 5.6% probability.
There have been 35 new polls released since then that cover 23 “states”. I put states in quotes, because we get polls for ME-1 and ME-2 this batch. Lots of swing states are included in this batch, and they largely come down on the side of Obama:
|NH||New England Collage||29-Oct||31-Oct||1017||3.7||49.5||44.4||O+5.1|
Both new Colorado polls offer Obama slim margins over Romney. With five current polls splitting 4 to 1 for Obama, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.
We get one Florida poll for each candidate, but Romney gets the net benefit. The current polls split 3 to 2 in favor of Romney, giving the G.O.P. nominee about 2/3 probability of taking the state.
All three new Iowa polls go to Obama, who also takes 6 of 7 current polls.
Maine-2 was considered a swing “state”, but both new polls go to Obama. Together the suggest Obama has a 87% chance of taking ME-2’s single electoral vote.
Three new Michigan polls give modest leads to Obama. The President takes all five current polls, suggesting a very high probability of taking the state.
The new Minnesota poll is pretty solid for Obama, who ends up with a high probability of winning the state.
The new Nevada poll puts Obama over Romney by a modest +6%. As it happens, that’s the only poll that falls in the current poll window. It suggests Obama would win the state now with a 86% probability.
Obama leads in two new New Hampshire polls. One gives Obama a slim +1% and the other gives him a +5.1%. All four current polls go to Obama and he looks to have an 88% probability of taking the state now.
Four of five new Ohio polls go to Obama, the fifth is a tie. We now have eleven polls taken in the past week, and Obama leads in nine; Romney leads in one. If the election was held now, Obama would take the state with a 97% probabililty.
In Virginia, Obama squeaks out a +0.9% lead. It is the only current poll, so Obama comes away with a 58% probability of winning, based on this evidence.
Obama gets a modest +6.7% in the new Wisconsin poll. Now he leads in four of five current polls, with the fifth poll being a tie. In the analysis, Obama won just under 100% of the simulated elections.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,915 times and Romney wins 1,085 times (including the 66 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 (+7) to Romney’s 229 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+4.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-4.5%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03 Nov 2011 to 03 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):
- 303 electoral votes with a 7.12% probability
- 290 electoral votes with a 4.95% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.87% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 3.41% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 3.18% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.05% probability
- 305 electoral votes with a 2.32% probability
- 306 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
- 296 electoral votes with a 2.20% probability
- 299 electoral votes with a 2.15% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 98.9%, Romney wins 1.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 308.7 (19.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 229.3 (19.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 305 (275, 347)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 233 (191, 263)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.