Not quite dead yet

Well, it’s been something of a rough week for me. But I am mostly recovered now, I’ve been off narcotics for almost a day, and I’ll likely be discharged this evening.

With any luck, I’ll do a new poll analysis by late this evening or tomorrow morning. I’ve entered most of the polls up through yesterday, but since they were entered under the influence of morphine, I’ll have some error checking to do.

Oh…and sorry about Kentucky thing. That’s the kind of error I usually find before posting, typically while writing up the summary of polls. But I skipped all that to get up what I figured to be the last analysis for awhile.

Just looking at the polls that have come in, I see no big shake-ups. I expect Obama will still be above a 90% probability of winning and somewhere around a mean of 300 electoral votes.


  1. 1


    Tennessee, not Kentucky. One seceded, the other didn’t. (Are you sure you’re off the opiates?)

    Hope you’ll be sufficiently recovered to celebrate the Obama victory with us at DrinkingLiberally on Tuesday.

  2. 5

    Aaron spews:

    Glad you are feeling better, looking forward to hearing from you again before the results come back.

  3. 6

    Geov spews:

    Hope you’re feeling better, Darryl, and that at least they were good narcotics. Hoping to come next Tuesday!

  4. 9


    Glad you’re feeling better, Darryl.

    Regarding the assumption of election outcome, not so fast.

    This isn’t Fox, or some other right-wing echo chamber.

    This is CBS News, home of Dan Rather and Walter Cronkite (maybe I should have the order reversed):

    Sources: Key task force not convened during Benghazi consulate attack

    CBS News has learned that during the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, the Obama Administration did not convene its top interagency counterterrorism resource: the Counterterrorism Security Group, (CSG).

    “The CSG is the one group that’s supposed to know what resources every agency has. They know of multiple options and have the ability to coordinate counterterrorism assets across all the agencies,” a high-ranking government official told CBS News. “They were not allowed to do their job. They were not called upon.”;fdmodule

    Check out Las Vegas Review-Journal’s editorial about Obama and Benghazi. They didn’t pull any punches.

    At some point the media has to look beyond the desire to protect The One and actually go do their jobs.

    I think it’s starting.

    Sorry about that no-alcohol recommendation you may have received. Bummer.

    Kentucky, Tennessee. Whatever. Both states: Five million people. Fifteen last names.

  5. 10

    wharfrat spews:

    @9 A citation from the Review-Journal has to be pretty suspect. It is well known that the RJ has an extreme right-wing bias which carries over from the editorial board into its news operations. Witness their manipulation of polling data and subsequent reporting in the Harry Reid/Sharon Angle Senatorial race of 2010. The fallout was so bad that the publisher was removed [although he was granted a comfortable sinecure] whilst a few underlings were booted.

    I recognize that these are desperate times for conservatives as you watch your hopes slip away as Romney bobs and weaves, punch-drunk with self-inflicted wounds. Next time you might want to be a little more selective with your nominee….somebody with integrity, perhaps.

  6. 11

    Tea for everyone spews:

    Let’s talk desperation come Tuesday. As you found in the 2008 election things are not always as you planned. This state may well have it’s 1st Republican Governor and yet again a 2/3 majority tax edict. The latter for sure.

  7. 12

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Here’s why you need government regulation of private businesses:

    “Contamination has been found in two additional drugs made by the pharmacy tied to a deadly outbreak of fungal meningitis, federal health officials said Thursday.”

    But hey, righties, if you prefer laissez-faire medications there are plenty of internet pharmacies that will sell unmarked pills to you in a plain brown package!

  8. 13


    @ 10

    I won’t disagree that LVRJ leans right. Ralston is a bit more centric.

    The point is that It will be read by Nevada voters.

    Might not help, enough, by itself. Although it’s not by itself @9, it seems.

  9. 16

    Dave spews:

    @8 Roger Rabbit

    I’m sorry, but Nate Silver is incapable of standing-in for Darryl. Nate performs an approximately similar analysis and then throws in a bunch of unsubstantiated mumbo-jumbo that skews his results a few percentage points while actually subtracting from the validity of his results.

    But it sounds cool, and Nate’s made a career of it. Darryl’s work, in contrast, is statistically sound and more reliable–and he does it as a hobby in his spare time.

    While he may be better than Darryl at getting paid for popularizing pseudo-statistics, Nate Silver’s slightly corrupted analysis doesn’t hold a candle.

    Just my $0.02

  10. 17

    Richard Pope spews:

    I think someone could come out ahead by buying Obama futures for $6.68 on Intrade, and then betting 2.75 to 1 on Romney with various on-line bookies. Basically, get a guaranteed $100.00 return by paying $66.80 for Obama futures and betting $26.67 on Romney. Or a return of $100.00 for $93.47, by taking a chance on both candidates.

  11. 19

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    News from the front (range)

    First full day here in Denver and I thought you might like to know what’s going on.

    Months of prep and planning for GOTV are paying off in this purple state.
    The effort to find and early vote sporadic voters here in the Denver metro is a fine tuned machine.
    Canvassers are even prepared with the technology to work through the recently introduced first time voter ID BS.

    Polling wise I’ll tell you we banked a helluva lot of first time ever voters today. I’m talking folks that are hard to find. If today is any indication, LV models here will miss large swaths.

    Today saw hundreds of out of towners like myself pour in. Some, like me, have places to stay, but all of those who do not have accommodations provided with local hosts by OBA within minutes of walking in the door.

    Frankly, this is the most smoothly running, ready for everything, effective GOTV cooperation I’ve seen in … ever. Amazing!

    Darryl, take good care of yourself and get well soon.

    Gekko/Galt is the anvil
    We are the HAMMER!

    We’re hammering it home

  12. 20


    Glad you are doing good Darryl. We drank to your aging pancreas, liver, er… whatever it was that was failing and whatever else might. Seeya soon.