Obama versus Romney using polls from 25-Oct-11 to 25-Oct-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.2% wins (150 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,850 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 13-Aug-12 16-Aug-12 452 4.6 35.4 54.0 R+18.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 3.5% wins (3,498 wins ), Romney: 96.5% wins (96,502 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rocky Mountain 04-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 523 4.4 44.0 42.0 O+2.0
PPP 01-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 594 4.0 44.0 53.0 R+9.0
Moore 25-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 500 4.0 42.0 46.0 R+4.0
Rasmussen 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 500 4.5 42.0 52.0 R+10.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
AR Poll 09-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 642 4.0 31.0 58.0 R+27.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Reason-Rupe 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 508 5.1 53.0 38.0 O+15.0
Pepperdine U 07-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 831 3.4 54.0 32.9 O+21.1
SurveyUSA 07-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 539 4.3 53.0 39.0 O+14.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 55.2% wins (55,172 wins ), Romney: 44.8% wins (44,828 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
PPP 16-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1000 3.1 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
Grove Insight 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 500 4.4 47.0 44.0 O+3.0
WeAskAmerica 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 1206 2.9 47.0 48.1 R+1.1


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 52.0 45.0 O+7.0
Quinnipiac 19-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 1412 2.6 55.0 41.0 O+14.0
SurveyUSA 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 575 4.2 53.4 39.5 O+13.9
Mason-Dixon 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 626 4.0 49.0 42.0 O+7.0
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 1015 3.1 53.0 44.0 O+9.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1222 2.8 88.0 8.0 O+80.0


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Obama: 23.4% wins (23,430 wins ), Romney: 76.6% wins (76,570 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 759 3.6 46.8 46.6 O+0.2
Mellman Group 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 800 3.4 47.0 47.0 0.0
PPP 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 800 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 750 4.0 46.0 51.0 R+5.0
SurveyUSA 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 600 4.1 47.5 45.5 O+2.0
FOX News 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1130 3.0 45.0 48.0 R+3.0
CNN/OR 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 681 4.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.3% wins (7,269 wins ), Romney: 92.7% wins (92,731 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Abt SRBI 08-Oct-12 12-Oct-12 706 5.3 43.0 51.0 R+8.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Civil Beat 26-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 1684 2.4 62.0 30.0 O+32.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 625 4.0 27.0 63.0 R+36.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,976 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (24 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Tribune WGN 04-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 700 3.7 55.0 36.0 O+19.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.2% wins (213 wins ), Romney: 99.8% wins (99,787 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 754 3.6 38.3 51.5 R+13.2


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 91.3% wins (91,316 wins ), Romney: 8.7% wins (8,684 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0
PPP 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 660 3.8 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
PPP 17-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 869 3.3 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Marist 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 1137 2.9 51.0 43.0 O+8.0
WeAskAmerica 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 1499 2.6 48.7 45.9 O+2.8


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6
SurveyUSA 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 800 3.5 31.4 56.3 R+24.9


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.5% wins (545 wins ), Romney: 99.5% wins (99,455 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 606 4.1 39.0 53.0 R+14.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Magellan Strategies 02-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 2682 1.9 36.0 59.0 R+23.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

5 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 400 4.9 50.8 36.8 O+14.0
Rasmussen 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 500 4.5 52.0 40.0 O+12.0
PPP 17-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 804 3.5 55.0 39.0 O+16.0
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 856 3.4 53.5 37.3 O+16.2
Critical Insights 12-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 618 4.0 52.0 36.0 O+16.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 52.5 35.4 O+17.1
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 445 --- 58.7 33.9 O+24.8


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Obama: 93.4% wins (93,360 wins ), Romney: 6.6% wins (6,640 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 49.0 38.1 O+10.9
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 410 --- 47.8 41.0 O+6.8


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WA Post 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 843 4.0 60.0 36.0 O+24.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WBUR 21-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 516 4.4 56.0 36.0 O+20.0
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 709 3.7 57.0 39.0 O+18.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 79.2% wins (79,248 wins ), Romney: 20.8% wins (20,752 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Baydoun 22-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 1122 2.9 46.9 46.6 O+0.3
EPIC/MRA 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 800 3.5 52.0 46.0 O+6.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 78.8% wins (78,785 wins ), Romney: 21.2% wins (21,215 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 46.0 O+5.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 2.5% wins (2,456 wins ), Romney: 97.5% wins (97,544 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 582 4.1 46.0 52.0 R+6.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 500 4.5 43.0 54.0 R+11.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.8% wins (827 wins ), Romney: 99.2% wins (99,173 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 828 3.4 41.3 47.5 R+6.2
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 806 3.5 43.0 53.0 R+10.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 0.3% wins (340 wins ), Romney: 99.7% wins (99,660 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 783 3.5 31.4 42.9 R+11.5


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 11.1% wins (11,121 wins ), Romney: 88.9% wins (88,879 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 432 --- 41.0 49.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 50.2% wins (50,223 wins ), Romney: 49.8% wins (49,777 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 400 4.9 44.0 44.0 0.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 319 --- 32.0 57.0 R+25.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 96.2% wins (96,159 wins ), Romney: 3.8% wins (3,841 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 636 3.9 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
Rasmussen 23-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
ARG 19-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 600 4.0 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
Mellman Group 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 600 4.0 51.0 43.0 O+8.0
Grove Insight 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 500 4.4 50.0 43.0 O+7.0
Rasmussen 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 47.0 O+3.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 74.6% wins (74,564 wins ), Romney: 25.4% wins (25,436 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 23-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 50.0 R+2.0
ARG 19-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 600 4.0 47.0 49.0 R+2.0
Lake 18-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 400 4.9 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
U NH 17-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 773 3.5 51.0 42.0 O+9.0
PPP 17-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 1036 3.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 49.0 O+1.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 577 4.2 53.8 39.6 O+14.2
Stockton 12-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 811 3.5 53.0 38.0 O+15.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Research & Polling 09-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 658 3.8 49.0 39.0 O+10.0
Rasmussen 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.5 54.0 43.0 O+11.0
PPP 02-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 778 --- 52.0 43.0 O+9.0
Rasmussen 27-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 500 4.5 51.0 40.0 O+11.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 565 4.1 61.0 35.0 O+26.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 37.9% wins (37,878 wins ), Romney: 62.1% wins (62,122 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Grove Insight 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 500 4.4 47.0 44.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 500 4.5 46.0 52.0 R+6.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (21 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,979 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 807 3.4 39.3 49.4 R+10.1
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 600 4.0 40.0 54.0 R+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

11 polls

Obama: 96.0% wins (95,967 wins ), Romney: 4.0% wins (4,033 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 23-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 750 4.0 48.0 48.0 0.0
Time 22-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 742 3.0 49.3 43.7 O+5.7
Lake 20-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 600 --- 46.0 44.0 O+2.0
SUSA 20-Oct-12 22-Oct-12 609 4.1 47.2 44.2 O+3.0
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 810 3.4 49.9 45.2 O+4.7
Suffolk 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 600 4.0 46.5 46.7 R+0.2
PPP 18-Oct-12 20-Oct-12 532 4.3 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
Quinnipiac 17-Oct-12 20-Oct-12 1548 3.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Gravis Marketing 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 1943 2.2 47.0 47.0 0.0
FOX News 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1131 3.0 46.0 43.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 750 4.0 49.0 48.0 O+1.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SoonerPoll 26-Jul-12 14-Aug-12 495 --- 29.0 58.0 R+29.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 88.0% wins (87,969 wins ), Romney: 12.0% wins (12,031 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 16-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 579 4.2 48.9 42.3 O+6.6


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 89.5% wins (89,512 wins ), Romney: 10.5% wins (10,488 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 887 3.3 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 760 3.6 49.5 45.5 O+4.0
Muhlenberg 17-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 444 5.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Brown U 26-Sep-12 05-Oct-12 496 4.4 58.2 32.3 O+25.9
WPRI 26-Sep-12 29-Sep-12 501 4.4 57.0 33.0 O+24.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 4.8% wins (4,796 wins ), Romney: 95.2% wins (95,204 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Marist 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 2131 2.1 40.0 46.0 R+6.0
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 587 4.0 38.0 53.0 R+15.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.8% wins (1,779 wins ), Romney: 98.2% wins (98,221 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 01-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 762 3.6 41.1 51.6 R+10.5


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.7% wins (7,682 wins ), Romney: 92.3% wins (92,318 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Vanderbilt Poll 02-May-12 09-May-12 752 4.0 40.0 47.0 R+7.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Texas Lyceum 10-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 1175 2.8 39.0 58.0 R+19.0
WPA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 1000 3.1 40.0 55.0 R+15.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U UT 08-Oct-12 13-Oct-12 206 7.6 21.0 74.0 R+53.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Aug-12 21-Aug-12 477 --- 62.0 25.0 O+37.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 66.9% wins (66,851 wins ), Romney: 33.1% wins (33,149 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 23-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 722 3.6 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Mellman Group 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 800 3.5 46.0 45.0 O+1.0
PPP 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 500 4.4 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 750 4.0 47.0 50.0 R+3.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 98.2% wins (98,237 wins ), Romney: 1.8% wins (1,763 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Strategies 360 17-Oct-12 20-Oct-12 500 4.4 52.0 39.0 O+13.0
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 574 --- 50.0 45.0 O+5.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 2.1% wins (2,134 wins ), Romney: 97.9% wins (97,866 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
R.L. Repass 22-Aug-12 25-Aug-12 401 4.9 38.0 52.0 R+14.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 90.2% wins (90,172 wins ), Romney: 9.8% wins (9,828 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
Mason-Dixon 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 625 4.0 48.0 46.0 O+2.0
Marist 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 1013 3.1 51.0 45.0 O+6.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.