Obama versus Romney using polls from 05-Nov-11 to 05-Nov-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (137 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,863 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 13-Aug-12 16-Aug-12 452 4.6 35.4 54.0 R+18.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 5.4% wins (5,371 wins ), Romney: 94.6% wins (94,629 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 02-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 1080 3.0 46.0 53.0 R+7.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
AR Poll 09-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 642 4.0 31.0 58.0 R+27.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Field Poll 25-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 751 3.6 54.0 39.0 O+15.0
LA Times 15-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 1440 2.9 54.0 40.0 O+14.0
PPIC 14-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 993 4.0 53.0 41.0 O+12.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Obama: 93.8% wins (93,809 wins ), Romney: 6.2% wins (6,191 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1096 3.0 52.0 46.0 O+6.0
Keating 02-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 603 4.0 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
Lake 31-Oct-12 04-Nov-12 400 5.0 45.0 44.0 O+1.0
PPP 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 825 --- 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1246 2.9 50.1 46.7 O+3.4
SurveyUSA 28-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 695 3.8 47.0 45.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 750 4.0 47.0 50.0 R+3.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,917 wins ), Romney: 0.1% wins (83 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 1220 2.8 55.0 42.0 O+13.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1222 2.8 88.0 8.0 O+80.0


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

9 polls

Obama: 31.4% wins (31,383 wins ), Romney: 68.6% wins (68,617 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis 04-Nov-12 05-Nov-12 1060 3.1 49.0 49.0 0.0
Insider Advantage 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 437 4.6 47.0 52.0 R+5.0
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 955 3.2 50.0 49.0 O+1.0
Mellman 30-Oct-12 02-Nov-12 800 3.4 47.0 45.0 O+2.0
Mason-Dixon 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 800 3.5 45.0 51.0 R+6.0
Marist 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 1545 2.5 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1146 3.0 48.9 49.8 R+0.9
Gravis Marketing 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 549 4.2 47.0 50.0 R+3.0
Pulse 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 1000 3.0 48.0 50.0 R+2.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 3.0% wins (2,961 wins ), Romney: 97.0% wins (97,039 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
20/20 Insight 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 1316 2.7 45.0 52.0 R+7.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Civil Beat 24-Oct-12 26-Oct-12 1218 2.8 61.0 34.0 O+27.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 625 4.0 27.0 63.0 R+36.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1198 3.0 57.0 41.0 O+16.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.3% wins (319 wins ), Romney: 99.7% wins (99,681 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 600 4.0 43.0 52.0 R+9.0
Howey DePauw 28-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 800 3.5 41.0 51.0 R+10.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Obama: 89.5% wins (89,490 wins ), Romney: 10.5% wins (10,510 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1122 2.9 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
ARG 02-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 600 4.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Gravis Marketing 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 594 4.0 49.0 45.0 O+4.0
Selzer 30-Oct-12 02-Nov-12 800 3.5 47.0 42.0 O+5.0
Mellman Group 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 600 4.0 46.0 44.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 750 4.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1174 3.0 48.8 47.3 O+1.5
PPP 29-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 676 3.8 50.0 45.0 O+5.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6
SurveyUSA 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 800 3.5 31.4 56.3 R+24.9


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.4% wins (376 wins ), Romney: 99.6% wins (99,624 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 606 4.1 39.0 53.0 R+14.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Magellan Strategies 02-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 2682 1.9 36.0 59.0 R+23.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 1633 2.4 55.0 42.0 O+13.0
Critical Insights 30-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 613 4.0 49.0 42.0 O+7.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,972 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (28 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 817 --- 59.0 39.0 O+20.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Obama: 87.0% wins (86,973 wins ), Romney: 13.0% wins (13,027 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 509 4.3 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
PPP 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 816 --- 51.0 46.0 O+5.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Baltimore Sun 20-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 801 3.5 55.0 36.0 O+19.0
WA Post 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 843 4.0 60.0 36.0 O+24.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 1089 3.0 57.0 42.0 O+15.0
UMass 31-Oct-12 03-Nov-12 800 4.1 57.0 37.0 O+20.0
Kimball 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 761 3.5 54.0 41.4 O+12.6
WNEU 26-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 525 4.2 58.0 38.0 O+20.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 95.4% wins (95,417 wins ), Romney: 4.6% wins (4,583 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mitchell 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1305 2.7 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
PPP 01-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 700 3.7 52.0 46.0 O+6.0
Baydoun 02-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 1913 2.2 46.2 46.9 R+0.7
Rasmussen 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 750 4.0 52.0 47.0 O+5.0
Grove Insight 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 500 4.4 48.0 41.0 O+7.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,803 wins ), Romney: 0.2% wins (197 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 01-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 556 4.2 52.0 41.0 O+11.0
PPP 01-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 700 3.7 52.0 46.0 O+6.0
PPP 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 772 --- 53.0 44.0 O+9.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (8 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,992 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0
PPP 24-Mar-11 27-Mar-11 817 3.4 40.0 46.0 R+6.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (14 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,986 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 02-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 835 3.4 45.0 53.0 R+8.0
SurveyUSA 28-Oct-12 03-Nov-12 589 4.1 43.1 49.9 R+6.8
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1217 2.9 42.2 53.8 R+11.6


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 0.2% wins (156 wins ), Romney: 99.8% wins (99,844 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 02-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 836 3.4 45.0 52.0 R+7.0
Mason-Dixon 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 625 4.0 43.0 53.0 R+10.0
Rasmussen 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 500 4.5 43.0 53.0 R+10.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (103 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,897 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WeAskAmerica 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 1178 3.0 41.0 54.0 R+13.0


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 10.1% wins (10,088 wins ), Romney: 89.9% wins (89,912 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 432 --- 41.0 49.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 17.2% wins (17,162 wins ), Romney: 82.8% wins (82,838 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 23-Oct-12 25-Oct-12 679 3.8 45.0 50.0 R+5.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 319 --- 32.0 57.0 R+25.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 90.0% wins (90,027 wins ), Romney: 10.0% wins (9,973 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 750 3.6 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
Mellman Group 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 600 4.0 50.0 44.0 O+6.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Obama: 90.7% wins (90,684 wins ), Romney: 9.3% wins (9,316 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 750 4.0 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
New England Collage 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 687 3.7 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1550 2.5 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
ARG 02-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 600 4.0 49.0 49.0 0.0
U NH 01-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 789 3.5 51.0 48.0 O+3.0
U NH 31-Oct-12 02-Nov-12 502 4.4 48.0 48.0 0.0
Gravis Marketing 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 497 4.3 50.0 49.0 O+1.0
New England Collage 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 1017 3.7 49.5 44.4 O+5.1


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct-12 25-Oct-12 601 4.0 51.0 41.0 O+10.0
SurveyUSA 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 577 4.2 53.8 39.6 O+14.2
Stockton 12-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 811 3.5 53.0 38.0 O+15.0
Neighborhood Research 10-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 783 3.5 48.4 41.4 O+7.0
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1319 2.7 51.0 43.0 O+8.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 99.3% wins (99,326 wins ), Romney: 0.7% wins (674 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Research & Polling 23-Oct-12 25-Oct-12 662 4.0 50.0 41.0 O+9.0
PPP 23-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 727 --- 53.0 44.0 O+9.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 23-Oct-12 25-Oct-12 554 4.1 61.7 32.7 O+28.9
Siena 22-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 750 3.6 59.0 35.0 O+24.0
Marist 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 565 4.1 61.0 35.0 O+26.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 28.0% wins (27,996 wins ), Romney: 72.0% wins (72,004 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1130 2.9 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 926 3.2 49.0 49.0 0.0
PPP 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 730 3.6 49.0 49.0 0.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 26-Oct-12 28-Oct-12 625 4.0 40.0 54.0 R+14.0
Pharos 26-Oct-12 28-Oct-12 752 --- 37.8 54.7 R+16.9
Pharos 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 807 3.4 39.3 49.4 R+10.1
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 600 4.0 40.0 54.0 R+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Obama: 98.4% wins (98,429 wins ), Romney: 1.6% wins (1,571 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 04-Nov-12 05-Nov-12 1316 2.7 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
Rasmussen 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 750 4.0 49.0 49.0 0.0
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1000 3.1 52.0 47.0 O+5.0
SurveyUSA 01-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 803 3.5 48.8 44.3 O+4.5
Ohio Poll 31-Oct-12 04-Nov-12 889 3.3 50.0 48.5 O+1.5
Rasmussen 01-Nov-12 01-Nov-12 750 4.0 49.0 49.0 0.0
Marist 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 971 3.1 51.0 45.0 O+6.0
CNN/OR 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 796 3.5 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 1649 3.0 50.2 45.8 O+4.4
PPP 29-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 600 4.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Pulse 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 1000 3.0 48.0 46.0 O+2.0
Columbus Dispatch 24-Oct-12 03-Nov-12 1501 2.2 50.0 48.0 O+2.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (48 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,952 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SoonerPoll 18-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 305 5.6 32.8 58.7 R+25.9


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 89.6% wins (89,599 wins ), Romney: 10.4% wins (10,401 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 31-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 921 --- 52.0 46.0 O+6.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 91.4% wins (91,446 wins ), Romney: 8.6% wins (8,554 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 1060 3.0 49.0 46.0 O+3.0
PPP 02-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 790 3.5 52.0 46.0 O+6.0
Muhlenberg 01-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 430 5.0 49.0 46.0 O+3.0
Susquehanna 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 800 3.5 47.0 47.0 0.0
Pulse 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1000 3.0 49.0 46.0 O+3.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,973 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (27 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WPRI 24-Oct-12 27-Oct-12 601 4.0 54.0 33.0 O+21.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 4.7% wins (4,671 wins ), Romney: 95.3% wins (95,329 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Marist 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 2131 2.1 40.0 46.0 R+6.0
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 587 4.0 38.0 53.0 R+15.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.4% wins (406 wins ), Romney: 99.6% wins (99,594 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 31-Oct-12 04-Nov-12 633 4.0 41.0 53.0 R+12.0
Neilson Brothers 28-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 634 3.9 42.0 50.0 R+8.0


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Middle Tennessee State U 16-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 609 4.0 34.0 59.0 R+25.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (27 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,973 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U TX 15-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 800 3.5 39.0 55.0 R+16.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 29-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 625 4.0 25.0 70.0 R+45.0
Dan Jones 26-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 870 3.4 26.0 69.0 R+43.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Aug-12 21-Aug-12 477 --- 62.0 25.0 O+37.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 77.5% wins (77,468 wins ), Romney: 22.5% wins (22,532 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 04-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 750 4.0 48.0 50.0 R+2.0
PPP 03-Nov-12 04-Nov-12 975 3.1 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
Marist 01-Nov-12 02-Nov-12 1165 2.9 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
Mellman 30-Oct-12 02-Nov-12 800 3.4 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 1069 3.0 48.5 47.6 O+0.9
Pulse 30-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 1000 3.0 49.0 48.0 O+1.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 99.7% wins (99,673 wins ), Romney: 0.3% wins (327 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 932 3.2 53.0 46.0 O+7.0
SurveyUSA 28-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 555 4.2 54.0 40.0 O+14.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.7% wins (1,677 wins ), Romney: 98.3% wins (98,323 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
R.L. Repass 22-Aug-12 25-Aug-12 401 4.9 38.0 52.0 R+14.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 95.7% wins (95,712 wins ), Romney: 4.3% wins (4,288 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 02-Nov-12 03-Nov-12 1256 2.8 51.0 48.0 O+3.0
WeAskAmerica 30-Oct-12 01-Nov-12 1210 3.0 51.5 44.8 O+6.7
PPP 29-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 825 3.4 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Pulse 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 1000 3.0 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
Rasmussen 29-Oct-12 29-Oct-12 750 4.0 49.0 49.0 0.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.