by Darryl, 11/05/2012, 10:37 PM
Obama Romney
98.8% probability of winning 1.2% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).

I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1096 3.0 52 46 O+6
CO Keating 02-Nov 04-Nov 603 4.0 50 46 O+4
CO Lake 31-Oct 04-Nov 400 5.0 45 44 O+1
FL Gravis 04-Nov 05-Nov 1060 3.1 49 49 tie
FL Insider Advantage 04-Nov 04-Nov 437 4.6 47 52 R+5
FL PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
FL Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 47 45 O+2
IA ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 48 49 R+1
MI Mitchell 04-Nov 04-Nov 1305 2.7 51 46 O+5
MO SurveyUSA 28-Oct 03-Nov 589 4.1 43.1 49.9 R+6.8
NV PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 750 3.6 51 47 O+4
NH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 50 48 O+2
NH New England Collage 03-Nov 04-Nov 687 3.7 50 46 O+4
NH ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 49 49 tie
NH U NH 01-Nov 04-Nov 789 3.5 51 48 O+3
NC Gravis 04-Nov 04-Nov 1130 2.9 46 50 R+4
NC PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 926 3.2 49 49 tie
OH Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 05-Nov 1316 2.7 49 48 O+1
OH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 49 49 tie
OH SurveyUSA 01-Nov 04-Nov 803 3.5 48.8 44.3 O+4.5
OH Ohio Poll 31-Oct 04-Nov 889 3.3 50.0 48.5 O+1.5
PA Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 04-Nov 1060 3.0 49 46 O+3
SD Neilson Brothers 31-Oct 04-Nov 633 4.0 41 53 R+12
VA Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA Marist 01-Nov 02-Nov 1165 2.9 48 47 O+1
VA Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 48 45 O+3

Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.

We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Florida

Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.

In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.

Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.

A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.

Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.

Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.

The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ‘em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.

Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

  • 303 electoral votes with a 12.10% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 4.89% probability
  • 318 electoral votes with a 4.39% probability
  • 290 electoral votes with a 3.77% probability
  • 319 electoral votes with a 3.62% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 3.61% probability
  • 297 electoral votes with a 2.98% probability
  • 302 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
  • 299 electoral votes with a 2.27% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 98.8%, Romney wins 1.2%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 309.1 (18.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 228.9 (18.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 304 (274, 347)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 234 (191, 264)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 154
Strong Obama 122 276
Leans Obama 27 27 303
Weak Obama 0 0 0 303
Weak Romney 0 0 0 235
Leans Romney 46 46 235
Strong Romney 132 189
Safe Romney 57

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.1 99.9
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 1069 46.5 53.5 5.4 94.6
AR 6 1* 571 34.9 65.1 0.0 100.0
CA 55 3* 2986 57.3 42.7 100.0 0.0
CO 9 7 5374 51.5 48.5 93.8 6.2
CT 7 1 1183 56.7 43.3 99.9 0.1
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 1173 91.6 8.4 100.0 0.0
FL 29 9 8046 49.6 50.4 31.4 68.6
GA 16 1 1276 46.4 53.6 3.0 97.0
HI 4 1* 1157 64.2 35.8 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 563 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1 1174 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
IN 11 2 1306 44.9 55.1 0.3 99.7
IA 6 8 5990 51.1 48.9 89.5 10.5
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.4 99.6
LA 8 1* 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 2 2141 56.0 44.0 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 1 801 60.2 39.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2 1284 52.2 47.8 87.0 13.0
MD 10 2* 1538 61.6 38.4 100.0 0.0
MA 11 4 3060 58.6 41.4 100.0 0.0
MI 16 5 4920 51.7 48.3 95.4 4.6
MN 10 3 1952 54.4 45.6 99.8 0.2
MS 6 2* 1420 43.2 56.8 0.0 100.0
MO 10 3 2536 45.1 54.9 0.0 100.0
MT 3 3 1891 45.5 54.5 0.2 99.8
NE 2 1 1119 43.2 56.8 0.1 99.9
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.1 89.9
NE2 1 1* 646 47.4 52.6 17.2 82.8
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 2 1298 52.5 47.5 90.0 10.0
NH 4 8 6212 51.2 48.8 90.7 9.3
NJ 14 5* 3773 55.6 44.4 100.0 0.0
NM 5 2* 1307 54.8 45.2 99.3 0.7
NY 29 3* 1770 63.8 36.2 100.0 0.0
NC 15 3 2709 49.2 50.8 28.0 72.0
ND 3 4* 2563 42.6 57.4 0.0 100.0
OH 18 12 11629 51.5 48.5 98.4 1.6
OK 7 1* 279 35.8 64.2 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1 903 53.0 47.0 89.6 10.4
PA 20 5 3892 51.6 48.4 91.4 8.6
RI 4 1* 523 62.1 37.9 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 4.7 95.3
SD 3 2 1178 44.7 55.3 0.4 99.6
TN 11 1* 566 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
TX 38 1* 752 41.5 58.5 0.0 100.0
UT 6 2 1420 26.9 73.1 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 6 5538 50.7 49.3 77.5 22.5
WA 12 2 1445 54.9 45.1 99.7 0.3
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.7 98.3
WI 10 5 4916 51.7 48.3 95.7 4.3
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

44 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Penultimate stability”

1. Roger Rabbit spews:

We now have the first polls that actually count:

Dixville Notch, NH, recorded its first-ever tie in presidentil balloting — Romney 5, Obama 5. Dixville Notch is not a bellwether; the town leans Republican (3 registered Republicans, 2 registered Democrats, and 5 registered independents).

In the other New Hampshire town with first-in-nation midnight voting, Hart’s Location, Obama whupped Romney 23-9.

So, in the very first tabulation of actual votes, Obama leads Romney by 28 to 14 — almost exactly the odds split on Intrade.

2. EvergreenRailfan spews:

I saw Dixville Notch on CNN, turned the channel when Piers Morgan went back to the scheduled guest, so I missed Hart’s Addition. I like the way that works, I think the West Wing combined the two towns for a fictional town of Hartsfield Landing. I loved the way that episode ended, by the way.

3. Richard Pope spews:

Okay, we get 50.88% Obama and 49.12% Romney with the weighted state polling averages applied to the 2008 turnout, at the two-candidate level. This compares with 50.46% Obama and 49.54% Romney using the weighted average of the RCP national polls. Pretty close between the two measures.

So probably in about 24 hours, enough of the really close states will be called, and Obama will be proclaimed the victor for another 4 years, with very little change in the makeup of Congress.

4. EvergreenRailfan spews:

I am beginning to wonder if the punditry class, on all sides, is only in it for the ratings. Earlier this year, they were saying that the Senate would not even be close. Several toss ups, a couple ill-timed, and ill-advised comments, and races written off become competitive, like Indiana and Missouri. I noticed those outside groups that went after Murray in 2010 did not show up here much.

5. EvergreenRailfan spews:

The name of the other midnight voting town is Hart’s Location, not Hart’s Addition, sorry about that.

6. Mark S spews:

So what excuses/conspiracy theories will Fuck’s Noise come up with tonight?

7. Piltdown Man spews:

4. EvergreenRailfan spews:
I am beginning to wonder if the punditry class, on all sides, is only in it for the ratings.

11/06/2012 AT 12:30 AM

Of course thats all they are in it for….and their tools, like YLB and a host of others here, are the ones who supply them with the viewership.

8. Roger Rabbit spews:

@3 “Obama will be proclaimed the victor for another 4 years, with very little change in the makeup of Congress.”

Which will be a defeat for the GOP and a rejection of their strategy of obstruction and stonewalling.

You’d think they would have learned in 2006 and 2008, but unfortunately Republicans are unteachable.

9. Roger Rabbit spews:

@7 Speaking of tools, you should talk, you’ve never had an original thought of your own.

10. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

I heard about this yesterday….here’s the actual text.

That sniveling little weasel Josh Mandel, corrupt, anti-gay, and a paragon of right wing ‘virtue’ who is running against Sherrod Brown for Senate from Ohio…had an ad taken out against him…BY HIS FAMILY!!

Signed by nine of his cousins, they decry is bigoted anti-gay positions, noting in particular that one of his (female) cousins is married to another woman, and that the in-law is a graduate of the Air Force Academy and an accomplished pilot who served her country in the military.

One wonders what mental and emotional gymnastics a little creep like Mandel goes through to maintain the positions he does…is it really heartfelt, or just a cynical decision that the road to power goes through the right-wing fever swamp?

11. kim jong chillin spews:

@9

Weak

12. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Here’s Rush Limbaugh letting everyone know how he feels….

“Moochelle Obama” is campaigning in North Carolina with “NBA players” to get out the “black base” for “Barack Hussein Obama”

Translation: “BLACK MOOCHER BLACK BLACK MOOCHER BLACK BLACK BLACK BLACK!!”

These people are vile.

13. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

WHAT’S THIS!!!

TELEPROMPTERS??!!!

What will Sarah Palin say?

I suppose it’s one more piece of evidence that Mitt failed conservatism, rather than the other way around.

14. greg spews:

100 bet on President Obama pays 20, 100 bet on Mitt pays 450.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

15. Roger Rabbit spews:

@11

Weak minded

16. Richard Pope spews:

Greg @ 14

Like I said, you can make money by buying Obama on InTrade and betting Romney with a bookmaker.

17. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Wow…Chris Mathews, yesterday…

If the president wins it will because all the people who benefited from what he had the guts and foresight to do stand up and do their part. He wins if those who despise racial and ethnic prejudice act wake tomorrow hearing those horrible words that have been called out angrily against this president.
They will vote because they know deep in their suffering souls that those words, that villainy that has been
rained on the president – that he’s not legitimately one of us, that he’s not really an American, that he is “lazy,” that he does not really love this country, is not aimed at him alone.
Not my any means. This diatribe from that side is not aimed at one, lone man. Those words—”food stamps” and “welfare” and “lazy” and un-American and all the rest—have been handcrafted by history to destroy the rightful place in this country of too many good people to be counted. They will not stop from being spoken even if Obama wins to tomorrow. But let those words win tomorrow and you let those who spoke them win. And they will do it with more vehemence and all the more full-throatedness the next time and the next.

Check out the whole thing, it’s quite powerful and moving.

18. Serial conservative spews:

Early indications are that the GOTV vote in OH didn’t exactly go the way Team Obama has been telling everybody it would go:


Josh Kraushaar@HotlineJosh
Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.


Dave Wasserman@Redistrict
By my calc, in ’08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama’s OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

That’s OK. I’m sure Team Obama is planning a massive Election Day turnout in OH, just like the Dems always do on Election Day.

Right?

19. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@15

Buffoon would work, in this case.

20. Serial conservative spews:

Gannett News service site in Cincy:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/Ohio-presidential-vote-by-counties?odyssey=nav%7Chead&gcheck=1&nclick_check=1

If this is accurate (note the bold there), Team Obama’s GOTV has failed.

697K early OH votes by Romney primary voters, 605K by Obama primary voters.

If.

21. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@18
Wow, spiking the ball on the 40th…again.

Moreover, your numbers, if true, may well reflect systematic change engineered by Husted and the other Republicans in the Ohio government to limit access to voting.

How do you countenance that? Does your self interest and greed trump democracy, trump others’ access to the vote?

I’ve wondered that about my Republican friends….even if you’re the most well meaning conservative, or honestly motivated by their agenda – how do you live with the widespread, systematic efforts to keep some people – usually black, brown, poor or some combination thereof – keep them from even voting? How do you live with that?

22. kim jong chillin spews:

@17

“Shiver up my leg!”

Lmfao….tool shed.

23. Serial conservative spews:

@21

Moreover, your numbers, if true, may well reflect systematic change engineered by Husted and the other Republicans in the Ohio government to limit access to voting.

Yeah. Next election, maybe Dem sloths should have 60 days to vote instead of 30, and 12 hours per day instead of 10.

Clearly, you’re not ready for The Pain.

24. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Wouldn’t it be hysterically apt and ironic if Willard got 47% of the popular vote?

25. Serial conservative spews:

@24

Wouldn’t it be hysterically apt and ironic if Willard got 47% of the popular vote?

Actually, he might. In New Yawk City.

26. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@22
I believe he also waxed poetic about Commander Codpiece…that doesn’t make him wrong now…just makes you look like a dimwit.

27. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@23

Dem sloths

So it’s laziness? Is that your argument?

Perhaps you’re showing your true colors again.

28. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@23
But really, having longer hours and more days for early voting allows more people to vote.

Is that bad? Why? How do you defend measures to limit the number of people who vote?

29. Serial conservative spews:

What is the first HA clue that the election will go for Romney?

Roger Rabbit expects us to ignore the premise of his 100,000+ previous posts.

In fact, it is my opinion this election was Romney’s to lose

http://horsesass.org/?p=47559#comment-1198520

RR’s ready for The Pain. He’s sent about 2/3 of HA content down his own little Memory Burrow.

30. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

From a Rmoney adviser, quoted in the National Review Online

“We’re doing everything we can, but I don’t see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory,” says a Romney insider. “The president has been hammering us for months,” and the auto bailout is popular.

31. Serial conservative spews:

@ 28

But really, having longer hours and more days for early voting allows more people to vote.

Is that bad? Why? How do you defend measures to limit the number of people who vote?

I don’t dispute that, Lib Sci. I would counter on two points:

1. Law of Diminishing Returns.
2. People are promised free and fair elections, not perfect ones.

Should we be open at the polls 24/7 for 60 days straight, with PSAs every 5 minutes? ’cause that might turn out some extra voters.

I think that early voting in OH has been substantial and when you look at the per-day votes, it began to decline more than a week ago (I have not seen data over the past three days).

There is no early voting in PA. Look at what is happening in Philly right now.

A better argument for you, Lib Sci, would be to not dig deeper into the bottom of the barrel in OH, but to dig into the middle of the barrel in PA. My thought, FWIW.

32. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@29
You should use the complete quote…

In fact, it is my opinion this election was Romney’s to lose and Mitt succeeded in losing it by making one blunder after another.

You know, Romney, they guy who couldn’t put away the Moosum Kenyan Socialist Atheist America-Hating sleeper-agent.

33. Serial conservative spews:

@ 20

from Gannett:

A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday morning.

It purported to show early voting totals in Ohio counties. However, no votes have been counted yet – by law counting doesn’t start until the polls close.

Cincinnati.com regrets the error.

The one thing I’ll point out is that they didn’t say the data in their chart was incorrect.

34. Serial conservative spews:

@ 32

Search your memory for one little HA snippet prior to last night in which RR gave Romney the election unless Romney fumbled it.

Just one.

35. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@31
Your bobbing and weaving is revealing.

Husted and Kasich in Ohio, Rick Scott in Florida, Gessler in Colorado…every one of them a Republican, have limited early voting hours, closed polling places, limited resources, reduced access to voting, tried to limit mailed ballots – all aimed at limiting efforts to maximize peoples’ access to the vote.

You deliberately obfuscate with drivel like this…

Should we be open at the polls 24/7 for 60 days straight, with PSAs every 5 minutes? ’cause that might turn out some extra voters.

And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…

A better argument for you, Lib Sci, would be to not dig deeper into the bottom of the barrel in OH, but to dig into the middle of the barrel in PA.

It appears to completely elude you that this is about maximizing citizens’ participation in their democracy, and government actions to either foster that, or to hinder it. Your side has chosen the latter, and made every effort to make sure people who tend to vote Democratic not have access.

You pretend that early voting hours and locations and other means to expand the vote are not limiting factors, and that squeezing them does not have a disenfranchising effect – your argument is as transparent as it is weak.

I suppose I didn’t really expect anything else from you.

36. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@33

The one thing I’ll point out is that they didn’t say the data in their chart was incorrect.

You really are an imbecile. You’re inability not to make the snide, ball-spiking comment really trips you up.

dummy data

no votes have been counted yet

error.

37. Serial conservative spews:

@35

And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…

Er, I thought I made a suggestion to start early voting in PA and probably unlock hundreds of thousands of additional votes in that state, rather than to further kiss the asses of the reluctant voters in OH in hopes of gaining a few hundred additional votes there.

I guess I was just being partisan, when actually I thought that from a numerical perspective, it made sense.

Blood, turnip in OH, Lib Sci. Of course, you’ve always been much more willing to kiss ass than I have, at least when Darryl’s around.

38. Serial conservative spews:

@ 36

We’ll find out tonite.

Busy day today. I’ll be humming tunes. Lib Sci will be spending it having catarrhal spurts.

39. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Republican David Frum


America’s voting system is a disgrace

I suppose Diogenes can now rest.

But here’s what doesn’t happen in other democracies:

Politicians of one party do not set voting schedules to favor their side and harm the other. Politicians do not move around voting places to gain advantages for themselves or to disadvantage their opponents. In fact, in almost no other country do politicians have any say in the administration of elections at all.

How do Republicans wear the term ‘patriot’ so gaudily, and at the same time work so tirelessly to undermine our democracy?

40. MikeBoyScout spews:

Kap’n Kornflake – Stoopid to the last drop!

First, thank-you for taking my wager and thus donating $1,000 to Northwest Harvest. I can say with absolute certitude that this was the best thing that has come from Slick Willard’s 7 year losing quest to massage his own ego.

Second, it is of little importance to me personally in the scheme of all that will happen today, but I will be so happy at the end of the evening when facts prove you so absolutely wrong and stoopid.
I am hoping that YLB can do a query to let us know how many days and how many comments you have stoopidly made during this election cycle.

As a native of western PA I can assert with absolute certainty the Gekko/Galt PA gambit is laughable.

Lastly, by my count Obama wins 303 to 235. And I think Obama/Biden may do a tad better if the Republicans don’t steal Florida.

41. Serial conservative spews:

@ 40

Thanks to you as well, MBS. Enjoyed the reports from CO.

43. Jerry spews:

Keep in mind Intrade and the Betting Orgs only relect those who gamble on this election, many of whom rely on the polls in deciding who to bet for. If they read Darryl’s analysis, they ought to push all their chips in for Obama. The problem is all are relying on polls with a variety of assumptions. If Romney wins, Darryl will say he wasn’t predicting, just reflecting the polls he used. I’ve got private bets risking $2,000 with the potential of winning $8,125. Different odds on bets.

44. EvergreenRailfan spews:

10) I have heard of the cousin of Mandell that they were talking about. Ellen Ratner, a bureau chief with the Talk Radio News Service. Pretty nice lady, and despite her sometimes partisan bent, she did do one thing interesting. During the primaries, she asked the Liberal hosts that carry TRNS updates, to not be too hard on Bachman, because although they disagree, they have gotten along.