by Darryl, 10/26/2012, 7:32 PM
Obama Romney
93.4% probability of winning 6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 294 electoral votes Mean of 244 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 299 to 239 electoral votes, and Obama with a probability of winning a hypothetical election now by 93%. I pointed out that the race had stabilized and, perhaps, slightly swung in favor of Obama.

Today’s polls are consistent with the idea that the race has stabilized. We see Romney bouncing up a handful of electoral votes, but Obama’s gaining a bit more in his probability of winning an election now.

Here are the 36 new polls covering 16 states released over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 44 52 R+8
CA PPIC 14-Oct 21-Oct 993 4.0 53 41 O+12
CO Purple Poll 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 46 O+1
CO PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 904 3.3 51 47 O+4
CO Keating 23-Oct 24-Oct 502 4.4 48 45 O+3
CO PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 46 43 O+3
CO Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1128 2.9 48 48 tie
FL Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
FL Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1182 2.8 49 50 R+1
FL PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 600 4.0 47 45 O+2
FL Susquehanna 22-Oct 24-Oct 1001 3.1 46 51 R+5
IA Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 517 4.3 50 46 O+4
IA PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 690 3.7 49 47 O+2
MN St Cloud State U 17-Oct 26-Oct 601 5.0 53 45 O+8
NV CallFire 23-Oct 25-Oct 909 3.4 50 46 O+4
NV Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
NV Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1042 3.0 50 47 O+3
NH New England College 23-Oct 25-Oct 571 4.1 49 46 O+3
NM PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 727 53 44 O+9
NY Siena 22-Oct 24-Oct 750 3.6 59 35 O+24
NY Marist 18-Oct 21-Oct 565 4.1 61 35 O+26
NC Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1723 2.4 45 53 R+8
NC PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 880 3.3 48 48 tie
NC Grove Insight 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
NC Civitas 20-Oct 21-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
OH CNN/OR 23-Oct 25-Oct 741 3.5 50 46 O+4
OH Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 46 44 O+2
OH ARG 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
OK SoonerPoll 18-Oct 24-Oct 305 5.6 32.8 58.7 R+25.9
PA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.5 51 46 O+5
VA Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 47 tie
VA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA FOX News 23-Oct 24-Oct 1126 3.0 45 47 R+2
WI Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 49 49 tie
WI Grove Insight 24-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.4 48 43 O+5
WI PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 827 3.4 49 47 O+2

You may recall from early October, a Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona that had Obama leading by +2%. We finally get a new poll from the state. And it has Romney leading Obama by +8%. The new poll seems consistent with most earlier polls, suggesting the Rocky Mountain poll was an outlier. Even so, the Rocky Mountain poll was notable because they provided both English and Spanish language live interviews, thereby likely capturing a more representative sample of Latino voters. Why is that important? University of Washington Political Science Professor Matt Barreto explains.

Five Colorado polls were released, none of which showed Romney leading. There was one tie, and Obama had smallish margins in the rest. Of the seven current polls Romney leads in one. Even so, the very small leads for Obama only put him at a 79% probability of winning right now.

Four new Florida polls go 3:1 in favor of Romney. In the past 10 days, there have been 11 polls taken, and Obama only leads in three (plus there is one tie). Romney takes away an 86% probability of winning at this point in the race.

In Iowa, two new polls show Obama leading by small (+4%, +2%) margins. Romney only leads by +1% in one of the six current polls. Obama is at a 92% probability for taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading Romney by +8%. With only two current polls Obama is at a 95% probability of winning now.

The three new Nevada polls favor Obama by small margins, and by 50% in each case. Obama leads in all seven current polls, and is at a 96% probability.

Just a week ago, New Hampshire was looking to be in Romney’s column. Today’s poll gives Obama a +3% and three of the six current polls, and Obama’s margins are greater than Romneys. Together, the evidence suggests Obama would take the state now with a probability of 77%.

New Mexico remains rock solid for Obama with this new +9%.

Four new North Carolina polls tell a mixed story. Romney has a +8% in one and a +1% in another, Obama leads one by +3% and one is tied. In aggregate, however, it is pretty clear that Romney is ahead overall. He leads in three of the six current polls, with stronger leads. Taken together, Romney is at a 94% probability of taking the state now.

Three more Ohio polls go to Obama, but by small margins. We now have 14 current polls, and Obama leads Romney eleven to one with two ties. The net result is that Obama is at a 97% probability of taking this most important of swing states.

Another Pennsylvania poll goes to Obama by a single-digit +5%. But Obama is at 51% in this poll. The four current polls all go to Obama by similar small margins.

Virginia keeps us guessing with Obama and Romney splitting a new poll at 47% each. Here is how close the state is. Each candidate leads in three polls of the seven current polls, and there is a tie. There are 4,970 total “votes” therein, of which Romney gets just 10 more than Obama. That’s close!

Two of the three new polls in Wisconsin goes to Obama, and the third is a tie. Romney does not lead any of the six current polls, so Obama earns a 92% probability of winning the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,432 times and Romney wins 6,568 times (including the 487 ties). We get a split decision. Obama received (on average) 294 (-5) to Romney’s 244 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 6.6% (-0.4%)probability of winning.

Here is the long term trend in this race, found from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ):

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

  • 291 electoral votes with a 5.18% probability
  • 290 electoral votes with a 4.60% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 4.34% probability
  • 303 electoral votes with a 4.17% probability
  • 294 electoral votes with a 2.72% probability
  • 286 electoral votes with a 2.46% probability
  • 287 electoral votes with a 2.32% probability
  • 281 electoral votes with a 2.31% probability
  • 288 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
  • 297 electoral votes with a 2.17% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 93.4%, Romney wins 6.6%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 294.4 (17.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 243.6 (17.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 293 (261, 333)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 245 (205, 277)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 86
Strong Obama 168 254
Leans Obama 36 36 290
Weak Obama 1 1 1 291
Weak Romney 13 13 13 247
Leans Romney 30 30 234
Strong Romney 130 204
Safe Romney 74

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 480 45.8 54.2 8.9 91.1
AR 6 1* 571 34.9 65.1 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1 933 56.4 43.6 99.6 0.4
CO 9 7 4888 50.8 49.2 79.1 20.9
CT 7 4 2945 56.1 43.9 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 1173 91.6 8.4 100.0 0.0
FL 29 11 8645 49.2 50.8 14.3 85.7
GA 16 1* 664 45.8 54.2 6.2 93.8
HI 4 1* 1549 67.4 32.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 563 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1* 637 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 677 42.7 57.3 0.3 99.7
IA 6 6 4190 51.5 48.5 91.8 8.2
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.7 99.3
LA 8 1* 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 5* 2886 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2* 588 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2* 538 54.6 45.4 93.2 6.8
MD 10 1* 809 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1 475 60.8 39.2 100.0 0.0
MI 16 2 1833 51.4 48.6 79.2 20.8
MN 10 2 1074 53.4 46.6 95.1 4.9
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 1056 45.7 54.3 2.6 97.4
MT 3 1 735 46.5 53.5 8.5 91.5
NE 2 1 720 44.7 55.3 2.1 97.9
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.3 89.7
NE2 1 1* 352 50.0 50.0 50.9 49.1
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 7 5082 51.7 48.3 96.0 4.0
NH 4 6 3705 50.9 49.1 76.7 23.3
NJ 14 1 539 57.5 42.5 99.4 0.6
NM 5 1 705 54.6 45.4 95.9 4.1
NY 29 2 1247 63.1 36.9 100.0 0.0
NC 15 6 4502 48.4 51.6 6.4 93.6
ND 3 2 1280 43.5 56.5 0.1 99.9
OH 18 14 11209 51.3 48.7 97.2 2.8
OK 7 1 279 35.8 64.2 0.1 99.9
OR 7 1 528 53.6 46.4 87.7 12.3
PA 20 4 2454 52.1 47.9 93.3 6.7
RI 4 2* 900 63.9 36.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 4.7 95.3
SD 3 1* 706 44.3 55.7 1.8 98.2
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.5 92.5
TX 38 2* 2090 41.1 58.9 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1* 195 22.1 77.9 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 7 4970 49.9 50.1 48.1 51.9
WA 12 1 455 57.1 42.9 98.6 1.4
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.6 98.4
WI 10 6 3790 51.6 48.4 92.1 7.9
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

42 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Romney gains EVs, Obama gains probability”

1. Roger Rabbit spews:

Looks like Hail Mary time for Mittens and his minions.

“With President Barack Obama stubbornly maintaining a small but clear lead in Ohio polls, … Mitt Romney’s campaign is contemplating a shift in its electoral map.

“The pathway to denying the president a second term that once seemed premised on taking back the Buckeye State is increasingly shifting focus to another Midwest state: Wisconsin.

“Romney campaign officials would never publicly announce a change in approach. And it’s not that they are giving up entirely on Ohio ….

“But Republican sources say Romney headquarters in Boston is increasingly seeing Wisconsin as a state more apt for flipping. … Romney … is set to head there on Monday night, marking the first time he has visited the state since August ….

“The political map is difficult, but not totally inconceivable. If Obama were to win Ohio and hold on to Nevada, as polls suggest, Romney would have to win Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and New Hampshire to get to 271 electoral votes. Iowa, in this scenario, could still go to Obama.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/26/mitt-romney-2012-campaign_n_2026484.html?ncid=webmail5

Roger Rabbit Commentary: “Difficult, but not totally inconceivable.” That’s what it has come to for Mitt. Suck on it, Cereal Bob.

2. Roger Rabbit spews:

It’s not over for Romney, yet. There’s still a chance the
Tooth Fairy exists.

3. Roger Rabbit spews:

“Chevron is firmly behind the House Republican majority. The multibillion-dollar oil company’s support is so strong that it has donated $2.5 million to a super PAC working to maintain that majority in the next Congress. Chevron’s contribution to the Congressional Leadership Fund is the largest made by a publicly traded company this election cycle to a super PAC.”

Roger Rabbit Commentary: Hey, if you love Big Oil, vote for their candidates!

(Full Disclosure: Roger Rabbit owns Chevron stock. I oughta sue those bastards for giving MY MONEY to Republicans!)

4. Michael spews:

Wasn’t our friend I Got Nothin’ just talking up how Obama couldn’t possibly win Colorado and Nevada?

5. Roger Rabbit spews:

Surge? What surge? There is no Romney surge. And, even worse for the Mittster, Obama maintains his leads in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia. That puts Obama on track to win over 300 electoral votes.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/presidential-polls-romney-surge_n_2016066.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular

6. Roger Rabbit spews:

Republicans are 110% for downsizing government spending. But, “State and local austerity has deprived the economy of 2.3 million jobs over the past three years, according to a recent analysis by the Economic Policy Institute.” I don’t see how they can talk about creating jobs and cutting government spending in the same breath, because the two are mutually exclusive.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/26/becky-quick-cnbc-paul-krugman_n_2023603.html

P.S., Since when does a flaky TV anchor know more about economics than a Nobel Prize-winning economist?

7. czechsaaz spews:

@1

As the article suggests though, even if Willard can flip Wisconsin, if he loses any other state (except New Hampshire and Iowa) it’s over. Ohio gets The President to 261. New Hampshire plus Iowa, it’s over. Everyone other “tossup” is 9 EVs or more.

We are exactly where we’ve been for months. Rom-yan needs to flip a blue state AND run the table of every toss-up.

8. MikeBoyScout spews:

Mitt Romney’s Very Long Odds of Winning the Election


The presidential candidate who gets 270 or more electoral votes will be the next President. We know the outcome of the vast majority of those 51 contests: New York, California, and Hawaii, and so on, will award their electoral votes to Obama, while Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, etc., will award their electoral votes to Romney. In these 41 “known” races, Obama has a huge lead over Romney: 237 electoral votes to 191.
In the nine remaining toss-up states — Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida — there are 110 electoral votes up for grabs, but because Obama needs only 33 of those votes to win re-election, he wins in the vast majority of the possible scenarios. As a mathematical exercise, Romney has just 76 paths to victory out of the 512 possible combinations.

Elections are not a mathematical exercise.
Get on the telephone, or better yet, take a walk in the rain and knock some doors today.

You’ll feel better on November 7th if you do.

9. Jerry spews:

Question–
IF Obama is re-elected, how do you think his election tactics of demonizing Romney & Ryan will allow him to lead?? Obama did everything he could to separate Americans the past 4 years, I think this is a legitimate question.

10. Jerry spews:

Since many of these state races are within the margin of error on the polls used, how is the margin of error factored into Darryl’s probability calculation?

11. Worf spews:

@9 I think this is a legitimate question
You’re not the thoughtful type. Give it up.

12. Dan Brown spews:

I’ve been considering a strange sort of karma the last few days… A fuck you to the repigs for 2000…

Obama wins the electoral college by a significant margin. The latter day snake vulture capitalist bastard wins the popular vote…

One or more red states try to secede…

With any luck the white trash would go ballistic and we could put them down once and for all.

Oh what a splendid muse!

13. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

oops…wrong thread….need more coffee.

14. YLB spews:

Obama did everything he could to separate Americans the past 4 years

Oh??? How did he do this??

Governing while black?

Moron.

15. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Obama wins the electoral college by a significant margin. The latter day snake vulture capitalist bastard wins the popular vote…

They would form a shadow government…they would use it to deligitimize the Obama administration.

Anything for power.

16. Darryl spews:

Mr. NOT Cynical,

“Obama did everything he could to separate Americans the past 4 years, I think this is a legitimate question.”

Classic case of Wingnut Projection, there, Squirt.

You may recall, it was the Republican “leadership” who, on inauguration day, made a pact to OBSTRUCT ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING from Obama.

17. Darryl spews:

Mr. NOT Cynical @ 10,

“Since many of these state races are within the margin of error on the polls used, how is the margin of error factored into Darryl’s probability calculation?”

Polling relies on using small samples of voters to make inferences about the voting population. That a small sample may differ from the underlying population is known as “sampling error,” which is used to compute a “margin of error”.

The whole reason for using the Monte Carlo method to estimate the probability that each candidate would win (based only on the polling data) is to accommodate this sampling error in each poll. The poll-level sampling error is aggregated up to the state level over multiple polls, and the state level sampling error is aggregated up to the electoral college election level.

In short, the resulting state-by-state probabilities and the overall winner probabilities incorporate sampling error completely.

18. YLB spews:

You may recall, it was the Republicans “leadership” who, on inauguration day, made a pact to OBSTRUCT ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING from Obama.

Not only that but some of these same politicians started talking about “Real Americans”..

Including moronic trolls like this one.

Right wingers have ALWAYS divided Americans.

19. Darryl spews:

Dan Brown,

“Obama wins the electoral college by a significant margin. The latter day snake vulture capitalist bastard wins the popular vote…”

If this happened, I think the collective Wingnut apoplexia would prematurely trigger The Rapture!

20. Piltdown Man spews:

@12

you should stick to sucking dicks…you seem more qualified to do that than comment on national politics.

and I doubt a flake like you could “put down” anybody other than a wheelchair ridden mongoloid.

21. Roger Rabbit spews:

@20 You shouldn’t be so hard on your own kind. You may want him to suck your dick someday.

22. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

you should stick to sucking dicks…

Why do you use this as an epithet? Is there something wrong with sucking dicks? Have you never had yours sucked?

Is that what’s wrong with Republicans? DSB*?

Do they just need to get off more? Is the pinched prudish thing not working out well for them?

*(Dangerous sperm buildup)

23. Roger Rabbit spews:

More bad news for our self-deluding trolls: Barron’s magazine thinks Obama will win.

Barron’s isn’t “liberal-biased” media by any stretch. It’s an investor publication owned News Corp., Rupert Murdoch’s conglomerate, and has an unabashedly pro-Republican editorial slant.

Here’s what a top Barron’s editor wrote this weekend, citing a London-based research firm: “Most likely is an Obama win, with Republicans holding the House and Democrats holding the Senate.”

(Barron’s, 10/29/12, p. 7; this article is available online, but only to paid subscribers.)

Roger Rabbit Commentary: As I’ve pointed out before in this comment threads, a Romney victory is possible, but the math is difficult for him. He’s got to win Florida, Ohio, and several other tossup states. Obama has slim but firm leads in most of those states.

Demographics are against Romney and the Republicans. Go to the public library, or any other public place, and look around you. There just aren’t enough angry white guys anymore. Decades of GOP policies designed to make the middle class too poor to have children have accomplished exactly that. You reap what you sow.

24. YLB spews:

“Most likely is an Obama win, with Republicans holding the House and Democrats holding the Senate.”

Groaaaan… More of the same old gridlock. Obama will get many more rounds of golf in the next 2 years..

Better than Rmoney any day I guess.

And there’s always the midterms in 2014 to look forward to.. maybe.

25. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@24
Don’t forget the Supreme Court.

26. MikeBoyScout spews:

Knocked some doors today.

In the meantime, for Kap’n Kornflake and his money bomb hypothesis ..

Obama tops Romney with more ads in battleground states

President Obama and his allies have aired more ads in battleground states this month than Mitt Romney and his supporters, despite being outspent by the Republican nominee and GOP groups, according to a study released Wednesday.

27. MikeBoyScout spews:

I see Nate Silver
(a man accused of being incompetent because he’s a “man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program.” by noted expert predicting a Gekko/Galt landslide)
has something to say today:

Still, it is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.

Trolls, please ensure you are inventorying massive amounts of tissue for November 7th. Please collect the salty & bitter tears of Wingnuts.
I predict there will be more tears harvested this year than since the great Bitter Wingnut Obamacare Tears harvests in March 2010 and June 2012.

28. MikeBoyScout spews:

Despite the scare, victory is still at hand for Obama


It’s still hard to predict with certainty what will happen on election day. But it is, day by day, becoming ever more difficult to imagine a scenario in which Barack Obama is not re-elected president. And if he does win, it’ll be in large measure because, to coin a phrase popularised by Republicans: “He built that.”

Bitter Wingnut Obama Reelection Tears

Gekko/Galt is the anvil
We are the HAMMER

We’re Hammering it home

29. Piltdown Man spews:

24. YLB spews:

Groaaaan… More of the same old gridlock. Obama will get many more rounds of golf in the next 2 years..

Better than Rmoney any day I guess.

seems to be the only thing Obama is good at…he for sure plays it alot.

I will bet that Romney is far better than a basement dweller like you. Jealous much?
ya – I called it…jealous of anybody making a decent living and succeeding.

loser.

30. Roger Rabbit spews:

@29 When did equity-stripping become a “decent” way of making a living? Last I heard, people who did that to widows and orphans got jail terms. (See, e.g., Dino Rossi’s boss and mentor.) The only difference with R-Money is he did it to companies, and on a much larger scale. That makes it legal, I guess.

31. Roger Rabbit spews:

From Nate Silver:

“The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. …

“There are no precedents in the FiveThirtyEight database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state — President Obama’s lead in Ohio — when the polling volume was as rich as it is there.”

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/

Roger Rabbit Commentary: Read ‘em and weep, boys. And don’t blame Nate! He’s just a math whiz who honed his skills on baseball stats and he’s simply calling it the way it is. It’s not his fault Romney is a putz and the GOP blew this election.

32. Rael spews:

Sorry for the slow response, traveling right now.

Red trolls:

Romney is doomed.

You know it.

Give up.

33. Rael spews:

Republicanist trolls:

Democracy is good.

Republicanism is stupid.

Give up.

34. Roger Rabbit spews:

The wingnut attorney general of Texas has threatened to arrest U.N. election observers if they show up in his state. The U.N. election monitoring agency filed a protest with the U.S. State Department.

35. Roger Rabbit spews:

The U.N. election monitoring agency has filed a protest with the U.S. State Department after the wingnut attorney general of Texas threatened to arrest U.N. election observers if they show up at polling places in his state.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/24/greg-abbott-texas-un-elections_n_2010081.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

36. Serial Conservative spews:

That’s a cute periwinkle blue color that Iowa is painted in the map.

All four major newspapers in Iowa have now endorsed Romney (instapundit.com link).

Maybe pick out a new color for that state in the near future.

37. Serial conservative spews:

Wisconsin’s a little too close for Democrats to be pulling stupid shit like this:

A series of shocking text messages purportedly from Philip Frank, the partner of Democratic State Representative and Madison-area Congressional candidate Mark Pocan, threatened a volunteer for Pocan’s Republican opponent days before the volunteer was found beaten. Last Wednesday, Kyle Wood, a full-time volunteer with Republican Chad Lee’s Congressional campaign, was beaten inside his home in Madison by an unidentified attacker who claimed that as a gay man Wood should be supporting the gay candidate for Congress.

The text messages obtained by Media Trackers allegedly show Philip Frank, Pocan’s partner, making sexually-charged comments to Wood before threatening him and making racist statements about the spouse of Chad Lee. The messages were apparently sent two or three days before the Wednesday beating, according to Wood, who is alleging to investigators that the messages came from Frank.

http://mediatrackers.org/2012/10/29/mark-pocans-husband-told-beaten-gop-operative-youre-a-marked-man-threatened-and-harassed-via-text-message/

It’s got too much good stuff – racist comments and violence intentionally committed against a gay man. All by a guy who shares a bed with a Democrat politician in WI.

WI ain’t Boston and Barney Frank’s behavior wouldn’t be tolerated by cheeseheads.

Gee, I think Romney and Ryan are scheduled to be in WI later this week. Raises the profile of everthing else political in that state.

Wisconsin’s just been one year-long own-goal by the Democrats.

Lotta fun to watch, too.

38. Serial conservative spews:

Two polls released today – CNN and ARG – have Romney up by a point in CO.

GOP early-voter turnout in CO is beating Dems (CNN):

The state kicked off early voting on October 22, and according to general election turnout numbers released Friday, Republicans had a slightly larger turnout at 244,263 compared to 225,850 Democrats.

CNN has CO independents going for Obama. Bet not, but hey, they are throwing a lot of indies Obama’s way, so this isn’t really a surprise.

39. Serial conservative spews:

Thoughts on OH, from RCP’s McIntyre:

Well look, you know, our Real Clear Politics average had it at about five, five and a half before the first debate. It’s now at two. And these state averages lag the national average. So I suspect that if the national average just stays where it is, to continue to tighten. And then you get a dynamic so it’s like the President’s at 48% in Ohio. But if he’s at 48% on the ballot test, and he’s only up a point in the average? That almost, the edge almost leans to Romney at that matter, because the undecideds are probably going to break, you know, they’re not, it’s very unlikely they’re going to break for the President. So I think with the fact that the state polls lag the national polls, so I think Ohio’s actually closer than two points right now. And you give, you know, the President’s not at 50%. He’s at 48%. I would give, right now, the slight edge to Romney in Ohio.

http://www.hughhewitt.com/transcripts.aspx?id=3ae1bb4f-76c0-4f0e-bbb2-ddf4e9cf089a

That was recorded this past Thursday. Today we’ve seen our first OH poll with Romney in the lead.

We’re seeing evidence that nationwide turnout might be R +1 this year, there are many fewer Dems voting early in OH than in 2008 and there are 30,000 more GOP voting early than in 2008.

I’m not sure what magic hat Axelrod pulls more Dem votes out of, particularly since the Dem early voters in OH are the ones that would have turned out on Election Day had they not been coerced to vote early.

Polling will probably be disrupted this week due to the storm. I guess that means HA libbies can go on believing Obama’s still got a lock on OH and that Romney has no more momentum.

It will make Tuesday night, November 6th, even sweeter.

40. Roger Rabbit spews:

@39 You’re getting ahead of yourself. Let’s say you’re right and Romney wins Ohio (along with Florida). He still comes up short. He still must peel off several more states where Obama still leads.
He still has to keep Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado out of Obama’s hands. And even those states aren’t enough; he’d still need one more swing state (Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire). But you’re probably wrong about Ohio; Obama leads in most of the polls there, and one pundit’s opinion doesn’t count for anything. What counts is actual ballots, and it won’t be much longer before those are counted. Then we can all stop guessing because we’ll know. You sound like a guy who’s worried about what Nov. 6 might bring. You’re trying to talk yourself into believing the implausible. I don’t have that problem.

41. meme1 spews:

@40,

He’s been doing this for the entire year.

Nothing new here.

Meanwhile, credible pollsters are still predicting a petty solid Obama victory.

42. Piltdown Man spews:

none of the polls mean shit until Nov 6th…the garbage prior to that is filler for the tools of society to ingest..