by Darryl, 10/29/2012, 11:09 PM
Obama Romney
95.9% probability of winning 4.1% probability of winning
Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 15-Oct 21-Oct 1440 2.9 54 40 O+14
CO ARG 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
MD Baltimore Sun 20-Oct 23-Oct 801 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MN Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 800 3.5 47 44 O+3
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 41 54 R+13
NE Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 40 54 R+14
NH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 874 3.3 49 47 O+2
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 601 4.0 51 41 O+10
NM Research & Polling 23-Oct 25-Oct 662 4.0 50 41 O+9
NY SurveyUSA 23-Oct 25-Oct 554 4.1 61.7 32.7 O+28.9
NC Elon 21-Oct 26-Oct 1238 2.8 45.4 45.3 O+0.1
NC Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 28-Oct 28-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
OH Gravis Marketing 27-Oct 27-Oct 730 3.6 50 49 O+1
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OH Cincinnati Enquirer 18-Oct 23-Oct 1015 3.1 49 49 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 43 O+6
TN Middle Tennessee State U 16-Oct 21-Oct 609 4.0 59 34 O+25
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Washington Post 22-Oct 26-Oct 1228 3.5 51 47 O+4

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

  • 299 electoral votes with a 3.39% probability
  • 315 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
  • 305 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
  • 314 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
  • 292 electoral votes with a 2.43% probability
  • 298 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability
  • 309 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability
  • 302 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
  • 308 electoral votes with a 2.18% probability
  • 295 electoral votes with a 2.12% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 95.9%, Romney wins 4.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 303.3 (20.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 234.7 (20.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 302 (266, 345)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 236 (193, 272)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 155
Strong Obama 84 239
Leans Obama 59 59 298
Weak Obama 17 17 17 315
Weak Romney 0 0 0 223
Leans Romney 30 30 223
Strong Romney 118 193
Safe Romney 75

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.2 99.8
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 480 45.8 54.2 9.9 90.1
AR 6 1* 571 34.9 65.1 0.0 100.0
CA 55 5* 3967 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
CO 9 7 4488 50.5 49.5 68.9 31.2
CT 7 3 2375 56.6 43.4 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 1173 91.6 8.4 100.0 0.0
FL 29 8 6296 49.5 50.5 30.0 70.0
GA 16 1* 664 45.8 54.2 7.1 92.9
HI 4 1* 1549 67.4 32.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 563 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1* 637 60.4 39.6 99.9 0.1
IN 11 1 677 42.7 57.3 0.2 99.8
IA 6 3 1638 51.0 49.0 71.1 28.9
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.5 99.5
LA 8 1* 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 5* 2886 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2* 588 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2* 538 54.6 45.4 94.0 6.0
MD 10 1 729 60.5 39.5 100.0 0.0
MA 11 2 1000 59.2 40.8 100.0 0.0
MI 16 1 1049 50.1 49.9 51.5 48.5
MN 10 2 1213 52.0 48.0 83.2 16.8
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 1165 45.0 55.0 1.1 98.9
MT 3 1 735 46.5 53.5 9.0 91.0
NE 2 2 1359 43.7 56.3 0.1 99.9
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.5 89.5
NE2 1 1* 352 50.0 50.0 52.3 47.7
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 6 4518 51.4 48.6 90.3 9.7
NH 4 6 3539 51.3 48.7 86.1 13.9
NJ 14 1 553 55.5 44.5 96.8 3.2
NM 5 2 1307 54.8 45.2 99.4 0.6
NY 29 3 1770 63.8 36.2 100.0 0.0
NC 15 5 4047 48.0 52.0 4.0 96.0
ND 3 1 716 44.3 55.7 1.4 98.6
OH 18 14 9333 51.0 49.0 91.5 8.5
OK 7 1 279 35.8 64.2 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 528 53.6 46.4 88.0 12.0
PA 20 5 3006 52.3 47.7 96.1 3.9
RI 4 2* 900 63.9 36.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 4.8 95.2
SD 3 1* 706 44.3 55.7 1.6 98.4
TN 11 1* 566 63.4 36.6 100.0 0.0
TX 38 2* 2090 41.1 58.9 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1* 195 22.1 77.9 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 7 5566 50.5 49.5 68.3 31.7
WA 12 4* 1995 55.9 44.1 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.9 98.1
WI 10 3 1739 52.2 47.8 89.8 10.2
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

68 Responses to “Poll Analysis: The race is stable”

1. Roger Rabbit spews:

I’m sure Cereal Bob will be along soon to explain why you’re wrong and assure us that Mittster has a lock on the White House.

2. Chris spews:

Looks good, although the TN poll is backwards, should be R+25.

3. N in Seattle spews:

You beat me to it, Chris.

I chalk it up to Darryl’s drugged state.

4. Rael spews:

Red trolls:

Romney is doomed.

You know it.

Give up.

5. Rael spews:

Republicanist trolls:

Democracy is good.

Republicanism is stupid.

Give up.

6. YLB spews:

Ooops. TN does look a bit out of place.

7. Roger Rabbit spews:

HA is running real slow on my computer tonight for some unfathomable reason. Takes a looooooong time to load or refresh a page. Does anyone else notice this? Maybe the host server is back east, and is running off a hamster-powered generator?

8. Richard Pope spews:

Yup, looks like Tennessee got entered incorrectly. If California were put in the wrong way, bet Darryl would notice that right away!

9. Serial Conservative spews:

Gallup has early-voting stats out. Nationally, among those who voted, Romney leads Obama 52-46. R +4 sample, YMMV.

Four years ago at roughly the same time in late October, among those who voted, Obama led McCain 55-40.

I don’t know what that means but I thought early voting was done more by Democrats, while Republicans prefer to turn out on Election Day to pull the lever.

10. Serial Conservative spews:

Any bed-wetters here? RR, you’re excused, we know with you it has nothing to do with the election.

Dems nervous, GOP upbeat as vote nears

David Plouffe, one of President Obama’s top campaign strategists, has a word for supporters he feels are needlessly fretful: bed wetters.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/politics/joegarofoli/article/Dems-nervous-GOP-upbeat-as-vote-nears-3989238.php#ixzz2AmlaC1TV

11. Jerry spews:

Senate Map on RealClear is 46-44 Democrat with these 10 toss-ups.
AZ: Open (R)
CT: Open (D)
IN: Open (R)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
OH: Brown (D)
VA: Open (D)
WI: Open (D)

Could come down to MT and WI for control. Could be a 50-50 Senate which makes the Presidential Race even more important.
Republicans have their biggest ground game ever. It’s about time. Making sure the cheating, lying Democrats don’t cheat & lie takes a lot of effort. Democrats are prolific cheaters and liars.

12. rhp6033 spews:

Yep, Tennessee has to be a data input error, I don’t see MTSU making a mistake that big in it’s polling without noticing and correcting it.

But that’s not going to change the math, we had already written off Tennessee as a Romney win. Tennessee has always favored rich patrician gentlemen for it’s highest seats, for some reason.

13. Richard Pope spews:

rhp6033 @ 12

Tennessee has always favored rich patrician gentlemen for it’s highest seats, for some reason.

So when did Al Gore stop becoming a “rich patrician gentleman”? Tennessee favored him with a U.S. Senate seat in 1984 and 1990, and with the Vice-Presidency in 1992 and 1996. But not so much in 2000, when failure to carry his own state resulted in his narrow loss of the Presidency.

14. Serial conservative spews:

@ 12, 13

It’s not just Gore, Jr. His father was a US Senator representing TN as well.

Just think – TN knew Gore very, very well. And TN chose the guy from TX.

I suppose the same argument could be made against Romney in MI and MA. We’ll know in a week.

15. Serial conservative spews:

Desperately playing defense in PA:


Chuck Todd

@chucktodd
It’s official, both Obama campaign and Xroads are on the air in PA. Spending figures coming soon.


How bad was Philly hit by the storm, I wonder.

16. Serial conservative spews:

I just heard the most interesting thing today.

Turns out Romney’s a rich guy.

The return of Bain Capital

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83023.html?hp=r1

Who knew?

17. greg spews:

@11 Mitt is down 26% on Intrade this morning ( President Obama 63% Mitt 37%) it seems the free market knows Mitt is going to loose.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

18. Moderate Man spews:

I still think FL goes Obama, giving him 332 in the end, but 303 does seem to be the consensus of most the aggregation sites. Darryl’s explanations and graphs are better than the rest of them, though.

19. greg spews:

@11 What happened to the great GOP Hawaii Hope Linda Lingle?

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Poll-Hirono-leads-Lingle-57-percent-to-35-percent-3991022.php

20. Serial conservative spews:

@ 19

Senate seat held by Democrat in deep blue state will continue to be held by Democrat.

Bombshell announcement, greg.

Martha Coakley was not available for comment.

21. greg spews:

@20 Tulsi Gabbard is up 52% leading 70% to 18% the GOP in the Aloha State is getting rushed to the ER!
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/29/opinion/ctl-kawika-crowley-homeless-candidate-hawaii/index.html

22. Serial conservative spews:

Blood in the water in PA?

Yesterday ABC moved PA from ‘safe Obama’ to ‘leans Obama’.

Today:

Garrett Haake
‏@GarrettNBCNews
Romney/RNC buying TV airtime in Philadelphia market, per RNC. #nbcpolitics

A Philly ad buy isn’t done to influence eastern OH voters.

23. greg spews:

FEMA & Family Planning are at the top of the Romney-Ryan & Grover Norquist hit list!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/29/romney-speaks-with-fema/?hpt=po_c1

24. Serial conservative spews:

We haven’t seen IA poll result after the weekend. Polling all over may be affected by the storm.

So maybe just chew on this:

In fact, of those major metro dailies that have announced their picks, more than one in five that had previously backed Obama are now pushing Romney, according to a tally by the American Presidency Project. Most, like the Register, had a history of endorsing Democratic presidents.

Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/102912-631252-liberal-papers-endorse-romney-.htm#ixzz2AnhSy7PD

I’m sure it’s just coincidence that the 20% +/- slide from Obama to Romney mentioned above is very, very similar to the 22% flip from Obama to GOP in early voter turnout demonstrated by Gallup when comparing 2012 to 2008

25. greg spews:

Who needs science? It looks like the plates are shifting and Kilauea is erupting.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2012/10/25/volcano-watch-kilauea-has-the-shakes-up-and-down-the-rift/

26. greg spews:

@24 The money market poll is changing every hour and things are not looking good for kill FEMA Mitt today.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

27. greg spews:

@24 How is that Mitt-mentom working in Massachusetts? Is the chance Mitt wins his home State about the same as Honolulu getting three feet of snow on election day?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ma/massachusetts_romney_vs_obama-1804.html

28. greg spews:

@24 Are you going to watch Seal Team Six on Nat. Geo. before you vote?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/27/tv-filmmakers-defend-seal-team-six-take-incoming/

29. Serial conservative spews:

@ 28

I already voted.

30. greg spews:

Jeep crashes into Mitt’s lie for a living ass!

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/10/30/inaccurate-romney-jeep-ad-drawing-fire/

31. rhp6033 spews:

# 13, 14: There are plenty of exceptions. Al Gore Sr. lost his Senate seat in 1968 due to Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” and the senior Gore’s opposition to the Vietnam War. But Al Gore Jr. was able to re-gain his father’s Senate seat, and hold on to it and the vice-presidency until he ran for President in 2000. At that point Tennessee voters had a choice between two wealthy southern candidates, both the sons of former Senators (and in Bush’s case, a former V.P. and President).

Bill Clinton doesn’t qualify as a patrician gentleman, he rose up from modest circumstances. Yet he won Tennessee in 1992 and 1996, in part because he was a Southerner running against non-Southerners (George H.W. Bush was more Connecticut than Texas). The 1992 election was more about the economy anyway.

But by 2000, with the economy on a firm footing (and budget surpluses projected indefinately), Tennessee voters felt safe to let the Republicans have another swipe at it. Boy, was that a mistake!

32. greg spews:

Here is a story about FEMA and the two faces of Mitt!

http://seattletimes.com/html/edcetera/2019559387_hurricane_sandy_forces_mitt_ro.html

33. Serial conservative spews:

@ 30

“I feel obliged to unambiguously restate our position: Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China,” Marchionne wrote.

Well, sure.

But he’ll move it from the US to Italy:

http://horsesass.org/?p=47442#comment-1196425

34. greg spews:

@33 From the NYT

The memo from Mr. Marchionne is below:

Chrysler Group’s production plans for the Jeep® brand have become the focus of public debate.

I feel obliged to unambiguously restate our position: Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China.

North American production is critical to achieving our goal of selling 800,000 Jeep vehicles by 2014. In fact, U.S. production of our Jeep models has nearly tripled (it is expected to be up 185%) since 2009 in order to keep up with global demand.

We also are investing to improve and expand our entire U.S. operations, including our Jeep facilities. The numbers tell the story:

• We will invest more than $1.7 billion to develop and produce the next generation Jeep SUV, the successor of the Jeep Liberty — including $500 million directly to tool and expand our Toledo Assembly Complex and will be adding about 1,100 jobs on a second shift by 2013.

• At our Jefferson North Assembly Plant, where we build the Jeep Grand Cherokee, we have created 2,000 jobs since June 2009 and have invested more than $1.8 billion.

• In Belvidere, where we build two Jeep models, we have added two shifts since 2009 resulting in an additional 2,600 jobs.

With the increase in demand for our vehicles, especially Jeep branded vehicles, we have added more than 11,200 U.S. jobs since 2009. Plants producing Jeep branded vehicles alone have seen the number of people invested in the success of the Jeep brand grow to more than 9,300 hourly jobs from 4,700. This will increase by an additional 1,100 as the Liberty successor, which will be produced in Toledo, is introduced for global distribution in the second quarter of 2013.

Together, we are working to establish a global enterprise and previously announced our intent to return Jeep production to China, the world’s largest auto market, in order to satisfy local market demand, which would not otherwise be accessible. Chrysler Group is interested in expanding the customer base for our award-winning Jeep vehicles, which can only be done by establishing local production. This will ultimately help bolster the Jeep brand, and solidify the resilience of U.S. jobs.

Jeep is one of our truly global brands with uniquely American roots. This will never change. So much so that we committed that the iconic Wrangler nameplate, currently produced in our Toledo, Ohio plant, will never see full production outside the United States.

Jeep assembly lines will remain in operation in the United States and will constitute the backbone of the brand.

It is inaccurate to suggest anything different.

Sergio Marchionne

35. db spews:

Mitt has at least four states that he can call home. He’ll lose 3 of them: NH, CA and MA. And he will easily win the state of Utah where he has yet another. I’m amazed that he has homes in all those blue states that are so oppressive and socialistic. It must be awful to live there. You’d think he’d be happier in a deep red state like Texas.

36. rhp6033 spews:

# 35: And the states where Mitt has the most ties are Michigan (where he grew up), Massachusets (where he was governor). The electorate in both states, after having the advantage of perspective of time, have soundly rejected Mitt in this presidential election. New Hampshire, where he currently seems to have his principle summer home, is also leaning against Romney.

It seems that those who know him best have rejected him.

37. Richard Pope spews:

It is interesting how unreliable survey polling is, in spite of the supposedly scientific techniques, followed by application of actual statistical science to the results.

Two recent surveys from Massachusetts — a safe state for Obama to be sure — with quite different margins:

Suffolk 7/News: Obama beats Romney by 63% to 31% (32% margin), with a 4.0% margin of error, taken 10/25-10/28.

Boston Globe: Obama beats Romney by 56% to 39% (17% margin), with a 4.1% margin of error, taken 10/24-10/28.

So if two polls, taken during the same time period, vary by a 15% margin, in spite of each poll having only a 4% margin or error, the “science” of survey polling certainly doesn’t produce consistent or reliable results.

So when a poll shows the race nationwide, or in a given state, to be tied or within a few points, it is quite possible that the actual election will show a blowout in one direction or the other.

38. Serial conservative spews:

GOP absentee ballots up 18.8% over Dem absentee ballots in PA.

In 2008, the GOP advantage in ABs was less than 2%.

http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/

I guess this means Dems are counting on all those Philadelphians to come out to the polls on Tuesday. ’cause they won’t have anything else, like storm cleanup or shit, to do.

Maybe this is why Romney’s spending in PA this week.

The Pain. It’s almost here.

39. Jerry spews:

It seems like lefty’s like greg are grasping at straws and just posting links rather than engage in discussion. It is a condition that rears it’s ugly head as the ship is going down. Get in the Conservative Life Raft greg!! It’s your ol=nly hope.

40. Jerry spews:

@38–
There are many indicators like the one you referenced in PA. The Left cannot stand to even look at the facts. Instead, they wander aimlessly in fairy tale gone awry called ObamaLand. Denial and venom. Good luck with that.

41. Serial conservative spews:

@ 40

The early voting data show that Romney is killing in that metric. Liberals are very dismissive of it because there really isn’t a comeback for it. What are they going to say? That traditionally Democrats always turn out strongly on Election Day?

(Actually, on Sunday I suppose it’s possible Stephanie Cutter would say it. There’s just about nothing else she hasn’t already said.)

Team Obama based their campaign on demonizing Romney, which didn’t work. Now they’re claiming their superior GOTV strategy will work for them. They’re ahead – barely – in one state, and yet what we know about early voting in OH also is quite favorable to the GOP vs Dems this year.

How big will the poll spreads be this weekend in OH? D +8? +9? Or do the pollsters give up and make it a realistic weighting, which gives away the Big Secret?

Does Romney act like a guy who’s about to lose an election?

42. Joel spews:

This is the first time, I think, that Sam Wang’s poll analysis gives Obama higher odds than yours. Is this just the nature of the Bayesian model vs. Monte Carlo?

43. Serial conservative spews:

More on PA and Romney’s play for the state:

Romney starts reserving time in Pennsylvania for last two days of race (Updated)

The Romney campaign has the resources to expand the map in ways that weren’t possible in past cycles (without reducing any effort in any other target state).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/romney-starts-reserving-time-in-pennsylvania-for-last-147690.html

Hey, HA libbies:

If Obama has OH and all those other states locked up, wouldn’t he just let Romney spend in PA?

Why defend a state that Obama doesn’t need if he’s winning elsewhere?

It’s a pretty simple answer: He ain’t winning.

44. Steve spews:

“The Pain”

More of Dumbfuck Bob and his pathetic projection of the pain he’ll soon feel. The fucktard needs a life.

41. Serial conservative spews:

@ 40

Gawd, Dumbfuck Bob and the goatfucking Klown have found each other at last. Of course, it makes sense that stupid would love stupid.

45. czechsaaz spews:

@35 & 36

He never lived in Utah remember. He signed an oath claiming as such so he could run for Governor. It also had to do with his taxes. Which we still haven’t seen.

46. czechsaaz spews:

@43

Your question has an obvious corollary. If Willard has Ohio, Iowa and Florida close, why is he spending money to try to get another state unless he knows that losing any one of those makes it impossible for him to get to 270?

Last week it was Wisconsin being the best hope of a flip. Today it’s Pennsylvania. It’s called tossing money after a giant problem to fix it. In other words, he knows he’s lost Ohio and he knows that Florida is probably not going to happen so he has no choice but to go after something, anything. Obama is playing the electoral equivalent of the prevent defense at the end of the game.

47. Serial conservative spews:

@ 46

1. Ohio is FAR from a given even though the early-voting data compared with 2008 are looking good for the GOP. Obama DOES have a four-year head start, and he DID dump billions upon billions of US tax dollars into UAW pension funds.

2. Iowa hasn’t been polled since Romney ran the table in newspaper endorsements over the weekend.

3. Florida is a lock for Romney. But he’s got to keep it in the red column. As long as Obama spends there, so will he. A better question would be, why is Obama still spending in FL?

You are wrong in using the word impossible to describe what happens should Romney lose OH and/or IA. He can still win by taking other states, notably combinations of WI, MI, NH, PA, NV (for this I assume he needs, and has, CO). Romney probably can’t get NV. Unlikely, very difficult, etc? Yes. Impossible? No.

48. proud leftist spews:

I don’t find Romney’s plan to dump money into PA, or anywhere else for that matter, indicative of anything except that his campaign has shitpiles of money. Putting money into PA at this point is a feint. Bob reads far too much into oh so little.

49. Jerry spews:

The Romney’s are real bastards according to this thing that went to 4.5 million in swing states last Sunday–
http://whyichangedmyvote.com/mittzine.pdf

This ought to help Obama, huh?

50. Roger Rabbit spews:

@47 If anyone is wondering, here’s how Cereal Bob spins the auto bailout into “Obama … DID dump billions upon billions of US tax dollars into UAW pension funds” when the UAW pension funds IN FACT lost money when the carmakers when broke.

Of course, Bob didn’t dream this shit up. He’s simply parroting the wingnut line as published in a WSJ article written by a couple of guys who work for rightwing propaganda mills.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303768104577462650268680454.html

51. Roger Rabbit spews:

@47 “for this I assume he … has …”

That accurately describes the methodology underlying ALL of your electoral prognostications.

52. czechsaaz spews:

@47

Yup, you’re arguing the same thing we’ve known for Months. RomYan has to flip a blue state (last week it was going to be Wisconsin, this week it’s PA) AND run the table of tossups.

Like you said, not impossible but he’s trying to score a touchdown, recover the onside kick and get another touchdown, get another onside and a 50 yard field goal all within the last 58 seconds. Sure, it can happen.

The President can lose Ohio and still has many ways to get to 270. Willard, not really. Think every media outlet in Ohio calling, correctly, Willard a liar for the last two weeks will push him over the top?

53. Roger Rabbit spews:

Bob, if you honestly believe Romney will win, put your money where your mouth is! Right now, you can buy Romney futures worth $10.00 for $3.66 on Intrade. A successful guy like you should be able to afford, say, 10 shares for $36.60 — you’ll earn $100.00 if you’re right! If you’re confident Romney’s a winner, that should look like FREE MONEY to you! How about it, Bob? Do you want FREE MONEY?

54. Zotz sez: If You Could Hie To Kolob In The Twinkling Of An Eye... in between the sheets! spews:

Something to consider when you consider polls:

Simon Jackman on House Effects

Note, for example, that when anyone cites Gallup it’s important to note that it is THE most skewed to the Rs this cycle. Even the detestable right wing narrative pollster, Rasmussen, is better (but not by much).

Darryl’s data and analysis are the best anywhere on the web not behind a pay wall (Nate Silver).

BTW: Fuck you, Bob.

55. Roger Rabbit spews:

@54 Speaking of Nate Silver,

“In fact, our projected leader in all 50 states is the same as it was at our launch of the forecast in June.”

So much for the “Romney momentum.”

56. Jerry spews:

The key words are “projected leader”, not “projected winner”. And Nate’s comment had absolutely nothing to do with how much tighter many of the states has gotten. Leader was 6-7 % points back in June in some states where it is now 1%…within the margin of error.
Roger, you are fishin’ for something to hang yer hat on aren’t you? This isn’t it. Nate very carefully worded his statement didn’t he. He doesn’t refer to the margin of the lead..or even if the lead is now within the margin of error.
YAWN!

57. Jerry spews:

These 6 reasons not to vote for Obama. ‎6 big broken promises:
1) “Today I am pledging to cut the deficit we inherited in half by the end of my first term in office. Now, this will not be easy. It will require us to make difficult decisions and face challenges we’ve long neglected. But I refuse to leave our children with a debt that they cannot repay, and that means taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control.”
2) “I have said repeatedly that I intend to close Guantanamo, and I will follow through on that.”
3) “These [health care] negotiations will be on C-SPAN, and so the public will be part of the conversation and will see the choices that are being made.”
4) “We are the most open and transparent administration in history.”
5) “I will turn the page on the ugly partisanship in Washington, so we can bring Democrats and Republicans together to pass an agenda that works for the American people.”
6) “And — and, you know, a year from now I think people — are gonna see that — we’re starting to make some progress. But there’s still gonna be some pain out there. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s gonna be a one-term proposition.”

58. czechsaaz spews:

Quotes on hurricane Sandy:

“I turned to my Lt. Governor and said, ‘Kim, thank God Barrack Obama is our president.” Chris Christie

“Can you imagine if John McCain were president during a hurricane? He’d just want to ‘bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Sandy.” NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Or words to that effect.

59. Tea for everyone spews:

The best economy 6 trillion in new debt can buy! Great Job Dems!

Get those printing presses lubed up and when we default we can sell em to Greece!

60. Richard Pope spews:

Rabbit @ 53

You shouldn’t pass up the sure chance to make a slightly over 50% return on your investment in just seven days. To rephrase your advice to Bob:

Roger, if you honestly believe Obama will win, put your money where your mouth is! Right now, you can buy Obama futures worth $10.00 for $6.34 on Intrade. A successful guy like you should be able to afford, say, 10 shares for $63.40 — you’ll earn $100.00 if you’re right! If you’re confident Obama’s a winner, that should look like FREE MONEY to you! How about it, Roger? Do you want FREE MONEY?

For me, race is too close to call, and buying either candidate is a gamble …

61. Czechsaaz spews:

@54

Gallup is also the ‘soucre’ of the Carter was up by eight rant that Cereal liked to go to when the polls were hugely in the President’s favor. Now? Why it’s the gold standard.

Funny, Gallup says in the poll that most of the early voters they polled were in the West. O.K. Gallup found a nugget of info that the right wants to treat like the seven trumpets. So Romney is going to win the West? (guffaw, CA, OR, WA go to Willard…)

62. Roger Rabbit spews:

@56 “Roger, you are fishin’ for something to hang yer hat on aren’t you?”

Don’t need to. It doesn’t make a damn bit of difference whether a candidate wins a state by 25 points or 0.0000025 points. The guy who gets at least one more vote than the other guy gets the Electoral Votes. And what Silver is saying — in case you missed it — is that the Electoral Vote meter hasn’t moved at all since June. Sucks to be Mitt. Sucks to be Republican.

63. proud leftist spews:

C’mon, Willard, answer the question. Are you running from yet another position you’ve held in the past?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/30/romney-ignores-questions-about-eliminating-fema/?wpisrc=nl_pmpolitics

64. Roger Rabbit spews:

@60 Richard, if you truly think it’s too close to call, I’m willing to give you even odds on Romney. In other words, I’ll bet you my $5 against your $5 that Obama wins. The winner takes home $10,
the loser gets $0, just like Intrade. How about it? Is that a deal?

65. demo kid spews:

Darryl — as noted before, I think that you have Obama and Romney flipped in the Tennessee MTSU poll… should not be blue.

66. YLB spews:

Darryl must really out of it. He’s usually johnny-on-the-spot with corrections.

Get well soon Darryl!

67. czechsaaz spews:

Just wondering, in Daryl’s absence – get well, how Cereal is feeling tonight.

You had Chris Christie telling Fox News that Romney is totally useless and he certainly doesn’t have the time to do a PR stunt with his campaign bus and a load of canned goods when the state has no power. (How is cold condensed soup?)

Then you have a smattering of polls.

Colorado – President +3
Florida – tied but there’s that internal GOP memo leak about getting KILLED in early voting and GOTV effort (remember, that big Gallup news on early voting they admit is mostly due to western states seeing higher R numbers)
Nevada – President +6
2 from Ohio both President +3

But you know, RomYan can lose Ohio, win Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire…there’s a path to victory somewhere.

I think it was like this, “He can still win by taking other states, notably combinations of WI, MI, NH, PA, NV (for this I assume he needs, and has, CO).”

300+ EVs to the President must be eating away at Cereal’s digestive system.

68. Steve spews:

“300+ EVs to the President must be eating away at Cereal’s digestive system.”

He’s obviously beginning to feel “The Pain”. Sucks to be Bob.