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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Political conventions are stupid.

Mental Floss: 26 Things that Inspired Movies.

James Corden with Michelle Obama: Carpool Karaoke:

Young Turks: Koch brothers cut funding of disobedient Republicans.

Farron Cousins: Rep. Steve King goes full “Grand Wizard” on MSNBC.

Sam Waterson: Important convention history

The 2016 Drumpf Shit Show:

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Farron Cousins: Right wing voting laws getting killed in the courts.

Minute physics: Hitting the sun is hard.

White House: West Wing Week.

The party of Jebus meets a Muslim.

Young Turks are interrupted on their set by Alex Jones and Rodger Stone.

Young Turks: The Post-Alex debriefing.

Climate Change: 2016 is hottest year on record.

Blue on Black Violence:

Young Turks: KKKer David “Douchebag” Duke to run for Senate.

Stephen Colbert with Lewis Black.

The climate change ad that FAUX News didn’t want viewers to see.

John Oliver with some Endorsements.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Nominee Trump v. Presumptive Nominee Clinton

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Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes
Mean of 200 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The day of Donald Trump’s acceptance speech is a good time for another poll analysis, I figure. There are 121 new polls added since the previous analysis. A handful of them are newly-discovered older polls, but the majority are newly-released polls. Fifty one of the polls come from a 50-state + D.C. Morning Consult series that was conducted over the preceding three months. The data are newly released, but are not necessarily the most current.

I should mention that only a few polls include surveys conducted this week, and none of them fully cover the G.O.P. convention. So think of this as the pre-conventions baseline analysis. Subsequent analyses will gradually include polls taken after the Republican National Convention. Of course, the same thing will happen following the Democratic National Convention early next month.

As with the previous analysis, a batch of 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning 100,000 times and Trump winning 0 times. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Notice, however, that Clinton’s average electoral vote total has dropped a bit from a mean of 354. We should expect at least some improvement for Trump as Republican voters accept and, in many cases, embrace him as the G.O.P. nominee.

There are two striking things about this analysis compared to the previous. First, many of the “outlier” states have “fallen in line” with expectations from recent elections: Nevada has gone from Red to Blue, Arizona from Blue to Red, Colorado from Red to Blue, Kansas from Blue to Red, Missouri from Blue to Red, Mississippi from Blue to Red and Kansas from Blue to red.

The second thing is that many states have become more polarized in the direction expected. You can look at the current map and the previous map to see this easily. For instance, many traditionally blue states have become “bluer”: e.g. OR, WA, MN, WI, MA and NJ. And many traditionally red states have gotten redder: TX, AR, LA, GA, UT, and ND are examples.

In other words, the states are falling into line as we would expect from previous elections. This suggests to me that this will be a conventional election with the battlelines coming down to the battleground states of recent elections. For the moment, Clinton leads in most of those battleground states in the East (PA, VA, NC, FL), Midwest (IA, WI, MI, OH), and West (CO, NM, NV). Of these, IA is very close, but trending toward Trump in the most recent polls, and Florida shows a slight trend in Trump’s direction.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleBallots have dropped, and Donald Drumpf Shit-Show is happening right now. So please join us tonight for an evening of political critique and conversation at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.





Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet.

There are 179 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Open Thread: July 20

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I got my ballot. I’m still not sure who I’m voting for to replace McDermott. It’s between Walkinshaw and Jayapal for me, but any of the 3 major Dems would be pretty good. You can’t really vote for any of those three would be fine on your ballot though.

Also, there are too many executive positions. Please eliminate 3. I am not a crackpot.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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What is populism?

Stephen: Former Daily Show correspondents dish on Jon Stewart.

Gun and Violins:

Jimmy Dore:Shrub clowns around during police memorial.

Dem Unity?

Sen. Tim Scott discusses racial profiling.

Thom: G.O.P. focuses on heat of porn instead of climate change.

Sam Seder: George W. Bush crazily dances during Dallas memorial service.

Jimmy Dore chats with Bill O’Reilly about FAUX sexual harassment.

Drumpfest 2016:

Sam Seder: Newt Gingrich calls for demented anti-Muslim policies on FAUX News to catch Trump’s attention.

White House: West Wing Week.

Mental Floss: 25 nerd facts.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of political conversation at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Call this one a briefing for the forthcoming GOP Reality TV Show Convention.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.



Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Open Thread 7-11

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After the John T. Williams shooting, I argued that we need to make the default for Seattle cops that they don’t carry weapons. It could be done similarly to how the UK does it. And if they need guns for specific things, they could have a procedure to get them. But the default should be no guns. I still think that’s correct, and I want to highlight this piece that makes the case nationally. Like Fred, I have no idea how we get from here to there.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Awkward Exes: A forth-of-July story.

Should women be drafted?

Being Murdered in America:

Ann Telnaes: Issues that motivate the G.O.P. controlled congress to act.

FAUX Sexuality:

Money for corrupt Senators.

Bill Maher: Two Reps. forward.

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Mental Floss: Forth of July facts

The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:

Mark Fiore: Journey to Planet Jupitearth.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins with Howard Nations: Koch shadow network is funding dangerous candidates all over the country.

Sam Seder: SCOTUS decision dump.

Jimmy Dore: Report find that Tony Blair schemed with Bush to invade Iraq.

Hillary Makes History:

Minute Physics: Explaining gravitational waves.

Young Turks: Bizarre Wingnut conspiracy theory about UN vehicles:

Here’s why the U.S. education system is broken.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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