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Ha. Ha ha ha. Ha. Haaaaaaaaaa! Oh my God, the anti-trans people not making the ballot is the best. My sides are aching. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes	Mean of 184 electoral votes

It has been some time since I’ve done a general election match-up using state head-to-head polls. Way back last October Hillary Clinton held a good lead over Donald Trump and would have defeated Trump with 96.6% probability. But these results were from back in the days when we had few polls matching up Trump and Clinton. We have many more now.

From a analysis of state polls through yesterday, and after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton takes 100,000 wins. On average, Clinton received 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. In other words, if the election was held now, Clinton would certainly win, and likely in a landslide.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The electoral map for Trump is grim. He loses almost all the swing states: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. On top of that, he loses Kansas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Kentucky!

The Arizona and Kansas results may be an artifact of one large outlier poll in each state. New Mexico and Kentucky are both based on single PPP polls. Still, Trump can take these four states and still loses handily.

One interesting finding is that Maine splits its districts, although the state goes for Clinton overall.

Today, Donald Trump met with G.O.P. lawmakers, telling them he would put Oregon, Washington, Connecticut and Michigan “in play.” But apparently not. Aside from turning Nevada from blue to red, and one CD in Maine from blue to red, Trump isn’t putting purple states in play at this point. It seems unlikely that solid blue states like Oregon, Washington and Connecticut are going to turn red.

[Read more…]

Remember way back in the early aughts when, Tim Eyman, tearfully confessed to being a liar in the “…biggest lie of my life”?

“I was in lie mode,” he said. “I became riddled with guilt. It was the biggest lie of my life and it was over the stupidest thing in the world. The biggest thing I’m guiltiest of is an enormous ego. Hubris.”
[…]

Eyman emphasized that he had done nothing illegal.
“This is all fricking legal …but beyond stupid,” he said.

No…”stupid” isn’t the right word…it was another LIE. At least, the Washington state AG thought so. Eyman was prosecuted and settled, paying a $50,000 fine and was permanently enjoined from acting as a political committee treasurer.

Ten years later, Lyin’ Eyman was at it again:

PDC investigators say the expenses that were reported as paying for signatures, but in fact were payments to Eyman violate state disclosure laws. Payments to him violate laws against personal use, they added.

The multiple violations are so serious the commission can’t levy adequate penalties, and the commission should send the matter to the attorney general’s office to take the case to court, they said.

And today we learn that there are many more violations of campaign finance and disclosure laws:

The latest complaint deals with an Eyman-sponsored political action committee (PAC) — “Bring Back our $30 Car Tabs — Voters Want More Choices” that sponsored and aired 21 online videos that opposed 49 candidates for the Washington State Legislature.

The ads cost $45,318 and were apparently financed by $22,500 contributions from two wealthy supporters: Vancouver, Washington, developer Clyde Holland and Camas Investment CEO Kenneth Fisher.

According to a report by the Public Disclosure Commission, 10 of the 21 videos meet the statutory definition of “independent expenditures” under state law.

The state requires footprints on so-called “independent expenditure” ads, which often fill TV screens before election day with messages that are unremittingly nasty. By off-loading negative advertising on “independent” groups, candidates can make themselves appear to be running upbeat races.

According to the PDC, the 10 Eyman-sponsored videos did not include the disclaimer: “No candidate authorized this ad.” The videos did not identify a sponsor’s name, city or state. The videos incorrectly listed the required five leading contributors to the videos.

“Bring Back Our $30 Car Tabs — VWMC,” in its filing with the state, listed as its sole purpose support for a ballot initiative — not attacking legislators. (The initiative was subsequently scrubbed.) The Eyman PAC did not file an amended form to update its purpose to attack legislators.

The PDC is throwing the disclosure rule book at Eyman.

Tim “Lyin'” Eyman has spent more than a decade personally profiting by embezzling funds intended for initiatives and flaunting Washington’s finance and disclosure laws. Isn’t it about time he be taken off the street or at least out of the political arena?

I think a long stint behind bars will offer him new appreciation for the necessity of taxes….

I love reading about the progress of the Angel Lake Station. It’s both that light rail is inching further along, and that I’m excited to go wander around Angel Lake. When I have a free weekend day, I love just hopping on the rail, getting to a station, and wandering around, aimlessly. I can, and do, do that with buses, but it’s not the same.

The Independence Day holiday is over, and it is time to get back to work. The first order of business? A visit to the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally to scratch that political itch.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Stephen: Who let the Red Cross decide what’s cool and not cool?.

The President goes viral.

Jimmy Dore: John Boehner would have firehosed the Dem sit-in:

Can Texas actually secede from the U.S.?

Not Safe with Nikki Glaser: Obama’s moving on, and we should, too.

Maddow: Pentagon ends US military transgender ban.

Farron Cousins: Polls show Americans want action on gun control.

Thom: July 4th 1776…The first brexit.

White House: West Wing Week.

PsychoSuperMom: If men could get pregnant.

The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:

• Young Turks: Drumpf’s lawyer accuses Hillary of murder
• Ann Telnaes: Elizabeth Warren deflates Drumpf
• Jimmy Dore: Dinesh D’Souza goes full Drumpf on Muslims
• Jon Stewart on Drumpf:

• David Pakman: Trump spokeswoman implodes AGAIN, can’t explain immigrant ban proposal
• Stephen: Celeb look-alike Cheetos
• Young Turks: Drumpf illegally fundraising from foreign leaders.
• Stephen: Drumpf spams the United Kingdom
• Drumpf gonna tear your kingdom down
• Rachael Maddow: Donald Trump get-rich-quick scheme exposed.
• Young Turks: Drumpf used charity money to buy Tim Tebow jersey
• Great fathers
• Greater women.
• Farron Cousins: Donald Drumpf is a petulant child…says Repubs who don’t support him.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf fails test of constituent interaction.
• Young Turks: Drumpf uses Istanbul attack to push torture and waterboarding
• Kimmel: The Troompa Loompas sing about name calling
• Drumpf crashes the Deceleration of Independence:

• Nikki Glaser does a Drumpf Rally
• The movement that is fueling Donald Drumpf’s white nationalist supporters
• Young Turks: Drumpf’s surrogates can’t keep up with Drumpf’s flip-flops
• Jimmy Dore: Latin pastor hated Drumpf, then they let him in their club
• A Drumpf A special 4th of July video
• Nightly Show panel: Does Donald Drumpf even want to be President?
• Young Turks: Drumpf lied about giving millions to charity

Mental Floss: 39 fun museum facts.

Stephen: “Lesser Pope-pologies”.

Sam Seder: Laura Ingraham suggests we should all wear adult diapers to avoid transgendered people.

Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan unveils his dangerously stupid Obamacare replacement plan.

Thom: Lying about science for politics is evil.

Young Turks: Republicans Waste more money investigating nonsense.

Minute Physics: Where do galaxies come from?

David Pakman: Does Congress really ban CDC from researching gun violence?

Stephen: Fun with presidential polls.

Mark Fiore: The What About X Committee.

Thom with Michael Mann: Can humanity survive climate change?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s interesting to see what the tribes are looking for in the next President. And at other levels of government. Tribal Sovereignty seems so obvious, but damn has it been tough to get in practice.

I should have more insightful commentary than comply with the subpoena, Tim Eyman. You big ol’ horse’s ass. But I don’t.

At a certain point, a point long past, it became clear that Tim Eyman was more huckster than anything else.

I think it says something good about a society that a certain number of scams can survive. That people don’t just assume the worst, or that they’re forgiving is a characteristic that scuzzy people take advantage of. I’d rather have that and, some scam artists who take advantage of it, than people have their guard so up that they catch everything.

Far be it from me to tell asshole conservatives what to do with their money, but I’d think there must be a better deal somewhere else.

The Supreme Court rejected the appeal of the Stormans who wanted to not have to dispense emergency contraception at their pharmacy, because Jesus, and despite Washington’s regulations. Honestly, the state’s regulations were pretty accommodating. But at a certain point, you have to say have someone on hand who can dispense medicine at a pharmacy.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight. Please join us for some political engagement over an elixir.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities chapter meets. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

ST3 is going to the ballot. I know, it has more awesome rail than stuck in traffic buses. It’s too bad we’ll have to fight against The Seattle Times and other ed boards who pretend obstruction is accountability just to build our basic infrastructure, but so be it.

Job 3:2
He said:

Discuss.

Muslim meet.

Farron Cousins: House Republicans vote to keep dark money donors’ identities secret.

Maddow: Short handed Supreme Court crisis deepens.

The GOP Drumpf Clown Show:

• Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-VA): Drumpf an existential threat to Democracy
• David Pakman: Donald Drumpf accused of raping 13-year-old in federal lawsuit
• (Not so) Presidential
• Michael Brooks: Elizabeth Warren mocks potential Drumpf VP Scott Brown.
• Is Drumpf a good businessman?
• Bill Maher: Drumpf’s low bar
• Jimmy Kimmel: Slow and Tell—Donald Drumpf on Americans
• Stephen: Donald Drumpf has left the country.
• Jimmy Kimmel: What would it take for Drumpf to lose your vote?
• Farron Cousins: Donald Drumpf plays right into ISIS’ hands
• Jimmy Dore: Reporter at Drumpf rally is tweets the horrors he witnessed
• Jimmy Dore: You’d freak out, too, if you attended a Drumpf rally.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf’s campaign is a cover for a moneymaking scheme:

• David Pakman: Anti-Drumpf Republican delegate revolt growing
• Young Turks: Is Drumpf’s campaign going broke?
• Sam Seder: Drumpf asks Christians to ainly vote for him
• Dictators for Drumpf
• Thom: Is Drumpf the new Nixon?
• Stephen: Hillary questions Drumpf’s business acumen.
• Farron Cousins: GOP wealthy not opening up their checkbooks for Drumpf
• Late Night: The Conservative perspective on Drumpf
• David Pakman: Wingnut Senator suggests the Drumpf’s nomination is “reasonably uncertain”.
• Sam Seder: In 1989 Drumpf wished to be b
• It’s very hard to be a 10
• Maddow: Drumpf skips politics at the apex of historic vote
• Finding Drumpf the perfect judge.
• Young Turks: Seemingly secular Donald Drumpf suggests nobody knows of Hillary’s religious affiliation.
• Totally UNFIT
• Winlar: Are You Really That stupid?
• Orange Americans for Drumpf
• Stephen: Drumpf has no money.
• PsychoSuperMom: Drumpf’s So Poor
• What Donald Drumpf voters really think
• Red State Update: Is Donald Drumpf really happening?
• Jimmy Kimmel presents the Troompa Loompas!:

• Jimmy Dore: Right wing kook Rep. Peter King is tired of being out-kooked by Donald Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s campaign spending goes to his own family and companies and a fake ad agency
• Farron Cousins: Everyone hates Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Brave RNC delegate delusional about anti-Drumpf movement
• Stephen: Cartoon Drumpf spotted busking in Times Square
• James Corden: Donald Drumpf pivots to the Teleprompter

Mental Floss: 41 facts about vegetables.

Mark Fiore: Paul Ryan’s Plan-O-Stuff

White House: West Wing Week.

Stephen: Why am I watching Congress on Periscope?

Bill Maher covers the conventions.

The Nightly Show: Oakland’s Police Chiefs.

Gunz in America:

• Bill Maher and friends: Who needs guns?
• Young Turks: Bought Congress bans study of gun violence, again
• Stephen takes the gloves off over gun control.
• Sam Seder: This week in gun control failure.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Congressional sit-in.
• Stephen: Thank you Congress for sitting on your asses.
• Maddow: House Democrats electrify gun debate
• Young Turks: Congressional Dems stage sit-in over lack of gun vote.
• The time for silence is over.
• Young Turks: Unhinged Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX-01) screams “Radical Islam!” at Dems
• Samantha Bee: Flippin’ off the NRA:

• Democrats vow to keep up the vote.
• James Corden: House Democrats sit-in & pig-out on snacks
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Senate’s failure to pass gun legislation.
• Stephen: Democrats stage sit-in over gun control.

Obama names Stonewall a national monument.

Is Google manipulating search results for Hillary?

Farron Cousins: Republican Governors are preventing you from getting a raise

Rubio’s Flippity-floppity-flippity-floppity on a Senate re-election run.

Young Turks: Affirmative action survives Supreme Court.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s pride weekend in Seattle, and there’s tons to do. I’m always a big fan of the parade. Parades aren’t everyone’s cup of tea (and it can run pretty long), but there are other events, if you’re interested.

Last year it was right after the marriage equality decision, and it was exuberant, even by the standards of a pride parade. This year, it’s in the wake of Orlando, and I don’t have any sense of the feel of the parade or any of the events.

So, congrats Britain: Under the leadership of a racist and a man so posh he makes the Queen look like a Commoner, you’ve managed to send a clear message that you’re opposed to the elitism of Europe. That caring for refugees is too elitist. That easy travel between borders is too elitist. Traded German bankers for British ones, who won’t do anything elitist. The only reasonable conclusion you can draw from the Brexit is that Brits hate elites.