About 17 new polls have come out since the previous analysis a few days ago. Many of the polls were taken after last Friday’s release of Donald Trump having a candid discussion with Billy Bush. That isn’t to say Sec. Hillary Clinton is totally off the hook, as WikiLeaks has released a series of stolen staffer emails over the past week to some embarassment. They don’t seem to be getting much press attention, but perhaps they are starting to have an effect on the race.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,979 times and Trump wins 21 times, and they are all Electoral College ties. Clinton received (on average) 335 to Trump’s 203 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have greater than a 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than a 0.01% probability of winning. The results are an improvement for Clinton who previously had a 99.8% probability of winning and a mean electoral vote total of 328.
Here are the most notable changes.
In Alaska a new poll has Trump up +5.5% in addition to a poll that has him up +3%. Trump’s chances have risen to 90.2% from 71%.
An old Arizona poll drops out, leaving behind two polls, one tie and one with Clinton up +2%. The state has gone from a dead tie to Clinton with a 60.8% chance–still pretty close to a tie.
With the gain and loss of one poll, Florida moves a bit more into the Clinton column. She would win the state with a 91.8% probability today. A few days ago, her chances were 88.6%.
Trump gains in Georgia, as polls age out. He was at 90.1% on Monday, now he is at a 98.7% chance.
In Iowa, one of two polls aged out giving Trump a small increase to 78.1% probability of taking the state now.
In Maine, three old polls age out and one newly released poll weighs in. The biggest change is that Trump’s chances in the 2nd Congressional District have dropped from 98.7% to 59.6%. Trump is +1.6% in ME-2 now.
Nevada is very close. Of the five current polls, two are ties, and three give CLinton small leads (C+3%, C+1%, C+6%). Clinton jumps from a 68.5% (Monday) to a 76.6% probability of winning now.
One new Clinton+9% poll in New Hampshire pushes her chances in the state from 95.2% to 98.4%.
In North Carolina, a new poll enters and an old one leaves, changing Clinton’s chances from 75.3% on Monday to 86% today.
Clinton’s chances also have increased in Ohio, but only because an old Trump+6% poll has aged out. Trump drops from 85.9% to 68.3%.
Utah is the big surprise of the last few days. Both old polls with Trump at +15%, age out, and two new polls are released today. One is a tie at 26% each, the other has Trump at +6%. The result, Trump drops from 100% to a 76.9% chance of winning Utah today.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Oct 2015 to 13 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 334 electoral votes with a 4.48% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 3.95% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 3.26% probability
- 340 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
- 339 electoral votes with a 2.83% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.30% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 100.0%, Trump wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 334.6 (19.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 203.4 (19.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 334 (297, 377)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 204 (161, 241)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.