There have been 32 new polls released since the previous analysis on 3 Oct. The polls are largely post-first debate, pre-second debate and have almost all been collected before last Friday’s release of the conversation between Billy Bush and Donald Trump.
For this analysis, I have reduced the window that defines “current polls” to ten days. As the pace of polling picks up, the window will shrink some more.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,821 times and Trump wins 179 times (including the 23 ties). Clinton received (on average) 328 to Trump’s 210 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.2% probability of winning.
This is a considerable shift from the 92.5% probability Clinton had in the last analysis. Also her mean electoral vote total has climbed from 300 to 328. That’s quite a jump for one week!
There are a few state changes worth noting.
In Alaska, a new poll has Trump up by only +3%. Previous older polls had Trump with stronger showings (+21% and +14.8%), so this is quite a change. Consequently, Trump’s chances have tumbled from 100% to 71%. I don’t believe Clinton is a serious contender in Alaska, but we only have one small poll for the state, so that is what the available evidence tells us.
Two new Arizona polls don’t favor Trump. We now have three current polls for the state, one has Trump up +2, one is tied, and the most recent has Clinton up +2%. The state is 50-50 (percent) right now. Did I mention that this is Arizona?
A handful of polls favoring Trump have aged out and some new polls have been released. We now have eight polls, six that favor Clinton (+4%, +0.2%, +5%, +4%, +2%, and +3%), and two that favor Trump (+1.4% and +1%). Clinton’s chances have gone from 62.9% to 88.6%. Clearly, the state is quite close, but Clinton seems to be gaining, if slowly.
The previous analysis had Trump running strong in Iowa with a 93.5% chance of winning. The two current polls have Trump up +4% and Clinton up +0.6%, so Trump’s chances drop to 71.6%.
Nevada is another very close state. Last week, Clinton had a 52.4% probability of winning. The five current polls have one tie, three small leads for Clinton, and one for Trump. Clinton’s chances are pegged at 68.5% now.
One bit of positive news for Trump is in New Hampshire where poll turn-over has favored him slightly. He went from a 0.9% chance to 4.8% chance of taking the state.
New Mexico was modestly strong with Clinton at 77.3% chance last week with one poll with her up +4%. That poll is joined by a new one having her up a remarkable +13.5%. Her chances are now 99.3%.
Of the nine current polls in North Carolina, Clinton has small leads in the last eight. This raises her chances from last week from 56.7% to 75.3%.
Ohio has been Trump territory recently. But the most recent poll has Clinton up +2%. Combined with the three other polls (Trump +5%, +1%, and +6%), Trump’s chances have dropped from 94.8% to 85.9%.
In South Carolina, Trump drops from 100% to 77.6% because an old poll at Trump+15.4%, aged out. The remaining poll is Trump+4%. We simply need more polls in the state.
Something similar happens in Texas, where two old poll drops out and one new one is released. Trump goes from 97.2% down to 93.1% chance of winning.
A new Washington state poll has Clinton at +17%, joining another poll with Clinton at +5.7. Clinton goes from 87.5% chance to 99.9%.
In Wisconsin, an old poll drops out (Clinton+3%), one remains (Clinton+6.3), and two new polls join them (Clinton +8% and +9.6%). Clinton’s chances rise from 92% to 99.8% in Wisconsin.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2015 to 10 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 333 electoral votes with a 5.25% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 4.91% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 3.15% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.76% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.60% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.48% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 2.47% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 99.8%, Trump wins 0.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 327.7 (19.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 210.3 (19.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 327 (289, 371)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 211 (167, 249)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.