Clinton versus Trump using polls from 10-Oct-15 to 10-Oct-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WKRG 19-Jul-16 19-Jul-16 4100 2.0 33.0 57.0 T+24.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 29.0% wins (28,998 wins ), Trump: 71.0% wins (71,002 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Moore 05-Oct-16 06-Oct-16 500 4.0 34.0 37.0 T+3.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 50.0% wins (50,035 wins ), Trump: 50.0% wins (49,965 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 600 3.9 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
OHPI 28-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 718 3.7 42.0 42.0 0.0
Data Orbital 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 550 4.1 38.0 40.0 T+2.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 15-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 831 3.4 34.0 55.0 T+21.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 29.0 57.0 T+28.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 27-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 732 --- 59.0 33.0 C+26.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 80.8% wins (80,760 wins ), Trump: 19.2% wins (19,240 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Gravis 03-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 1246 2.8 40.0 40.0 0.0
Monmouth 29-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 400 4.9 49.0 38.0 C+11.0
Keating 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 602 4.0 44.0 33.0 C+11.0
CNN/ORC 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 784 3.5 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
Gravis 22-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 799 3.5 37.0 41.0 T+4.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,978 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (22 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 1000 3.0 49.8 34.9 C+14.9


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U DE 16-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 762 4.1 51.0 30.0 C+21.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 88.6% wins (88,616 wins ), Trump: 11.4% wins (11,384 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 03-Oct-16 05-Oct-16 700 3.7 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
Gravis 04-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 821 3.4 47.0 45.0 C+2.0
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 600 3.9 44.0 45.0 T+1.0
UNF 27-Sep-16 04-Oct-16 696 3.8 41.0 37.0 C+4.0
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 545 4.2 46.0 41.0 C+5.0
Opinion Savvy 28-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 619 4.0 46.5 46.4 C+0.2
Mason-Dixon 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 820 3.5 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Suffolk 19-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 500 4.4 43.6 45.0 T+1.4


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 9.9% wins (9,946 wins ), Trump: 90.1% wins (90,054 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Landmark 21-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.9 46.5 T+3.6
JMC 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 600 4.0 38.0 44.0 T+6.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 18-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 602 4.0 23.0 44.0 T+21.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SIU 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 865 3.3 53.0 28.0 C+25.0
Victory 21-Sep-16 24-Sep-16 1200 2.8 48.6 35.1 C+13.5
Emerson 19-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 700 3.6 45.7 39.9 C+5.9


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 8.5% wins (8,521 wins ), Trump: 91.5% wins (91,479 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WTHR/Howey 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 600 4.0 36.0 43.0 T+7.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 28.4% wins (28,405 wins ), Trump: 71.6% wins (71,595 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Des Moines Reg 03-Oct-16 06-Oct-16 642 4.0 39.0 43.0 T+4.0
Loras Col 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 491 4.4 38.3 37.7 C+0.6


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.9% wins (1,862 wins ), Trump: 98.1% wins (98,138 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 595 4.1 36.1 47.5 T+11.4


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.3% wins (1,301 wins ), Trump: 98.7% wins (98,699 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Harper 31-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 500 4.4 36.0 49.0 T+13.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.9% wins (850 wins ), Trump: 99.2% wins (99,150 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
JMC 22-Sep-16 24-Sep-16 905 3.3 35.0 45.0 T+10.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

3 polls

Clinton: 97.8% wins (97,839 wins ), Trump: 2.2% wins (2,161 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 513 4.3 42.0 37.0 C+5.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 779 3.6 42.4 39.2 C+3.2
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.6 34.9 C+8.6


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

3 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 247 4.3 50.0 28.0 C+22.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 382 --- 48.4 31.4 C+17.0
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 404 --- 52.0 30.0 C+22.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

3 polls

Clinton: 1.3% wins (1,313 wins ), Trump: 98.7% wins (98,687 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 231 4.3 34.0 48.0 T+14.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 397 --- 36.5 46.9 T+10.3
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 399 --- 36.3 40.6 T+4.3


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U MD 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 706 4.0 63.0 27.0 C+36.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WNEU 24-Sep-16 03-Oct-16 403 5.0 58.0 26.0 C+32.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 99.7% wins (99,720 wins ), Trump: 0.3% wins (280 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Detroit Free Press 01-Oct-16 03-Oct-16 600 4.0 43.0 32.0 C+11.0
Detroit News 27-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
Mitchell 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 1956 2.2 45.8 41.2 C+4.6


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 96.4% wins (96,416 wins ), Trump: 3.6% wins (3,584 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 16-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 625 4.0 45.9 39.0 C+6.9
Mason-Dixon 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 625 4.0 44.0 38.0 C+6.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (45 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,955 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Magellan 11-Aug-16 11-Aug-16 1084 2.9 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (336 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,664 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 26-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 1279 3.0 39.0 49.0 T+10.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.4% wins (364 wins ), Trump: 99.6% wins (99,636 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 35.8 45.3 T+9.5


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 29.2 55.6 T+26.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (178 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,822 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 15.7% wins (15,741 wins ), Trump: 84.3% wins (84,259 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 40.0 49.0 T+9.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 234 --- 20.0 65.0 T+45.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 68.5% wins (68,534 wins ), Trump: 31.5% wins (31,466 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 700 3.6 43.0 43.0 0.0
UNLV 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 700 3.8 44.0 41.0 C+3.0
LVRJ 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 800 3.5 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Suffolk 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 500 4.4 44.2 38.2 C+6.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 704 3.5 40.0 43.0 T+3.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 95.2% wins (95,153 wins ), Trump: 4.8% wins (4,847 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Suffolk 03-Oct-16 05-Oct-16 500 4.4 43.8 42.0 C+1.8
WBUR 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 502 4.4 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
GBA Strategies 25-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 600 4.0 43.0 37.0 C+6.0
ARG 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 522 4.2 46.0 42.0 C+4.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 90.3% wins (90,264 wins ), Trump: 9.7% wins (9,736 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Stockton 22-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 638 3.9 46.2 39.8 C+6.4


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.3% wins (99,340 wins ), Trump: 0.7% wins (660 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 594 4.1 46.0 32.5 C+13.5
AbqJournal 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 501 4.4 35.0 31.0 C+4.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 21-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 1145 2.9 57.0 33.0 C+24.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

9 polls

Clinton: 75.3% wins (75,345 wins ), Trump: 24.7% wins (24,655 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
High Point U 01-Oct-16 06-Oct-16 479 4.5 43.0 42.0 C+1.0
SurveyUSA 29-Sep-16 03-Oct-16 656 3.9 46.0 44.0 C+2.0
Bloomberg 29-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 805 3.5 46.0 45.0 C+1.0
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 507 4.4 46.0 43.0 C+3.0
Elon 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 660 3.8 44.5 38.8 C+5.6
Gravis 23-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 694 3.7 44.0 43.0 C+1.0
Meredith Col 18-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 469 4.4 38.0 35.4 C+2.6
High Point U 17-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 404 4.9 43.0 42.0 C+1.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 734 3.5 40.0 45.0 T+5.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.5% wins (3,467 wins ), Trump: 96.5% wins (96,533 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 12-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 400 4.9 32.0 43.0 T+11.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 14.1% wins (14,097 wins ), Trump: 85.9% wins (85,903 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 01-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 405 4.9 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 497 4.4 42.0 47.0 T+5.0
Gravis 22-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 850 3.4 42.0 43.0 T+1.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 737 3.5 37.0 43.0 T+6.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (338 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,662 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 13-Sep-16 15-Sep-16 515 4.3 35.6 50.9 T+15.3


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,866 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (134 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Gravis 04-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 1248 2.8 47.0 39.0 C+8.0
Hoffman Res 29-Sep-16 01-Oct-16 605 4.0 45.0 33.0 C+12.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,864 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (136 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 03-Oct-16 05-Oct-16 709 3.7 49.0 37.0 C+12.0
Monmouth 30-Sep-16 03-Oct-16 402 4.9 50.0 40.0 C+10.0
F&M 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 813 4.8 47.0 38.0 C+9.0
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 535 4.2 45.0 41.0 C+4.0
Gravis 23-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 949 3.2 46.0 43.0 C+3.0
CNN/ORC 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 771 3.5 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Harper 21-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 500 4.4 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
Muhlenberg 19-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 468 5.0 40.0 38.0 C+2.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 600 3.9 52.0 32.0 C+20.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 22.4% wins (22,401 wins ), Trump: 77.6% wins (77,599 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Winthrop 18-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 475 4.5 38.0 42.0 T+4.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (92 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,908 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 32.4 46.7 T+14.3


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Middle TN State U 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 472 5.0 38.0 50.0 T+12.0
Vanderbilt 19-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 1000 3.4 33.0 44.0 T+11.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 6.9% wins (6,883 wins ), Trump: 93.1% wins (93,117 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dixie Strategies 29-Sep-16 01-Oct-16 780 3.5 38.0 44.9 T+6.9


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 01-Sep-16 09-Sep-16 605 4.0 24.0 39.0 T+15.0
PPP 19-Aug-16 21-Aug-16 1018 3.1 24.0 39.0 T+15.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 600 3.9 47.5 25.7 C+21.8


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,977 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (23 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hampton U 28-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 800 4.4 46.0 34.0 C+12.0
CNU 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 892 3.7 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
CNU 15-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 1003 3.9 39.0 33.0 C+6.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,857 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (143 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Strategies 360 29-Sep-16 03-Oct-16 500 4.4 50.0 33.0 C+17.0
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 44.2 38.5 C+5.7


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (299 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,701 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Repass Res 09-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 386 4.7 31.0 49.0 T+18.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,822 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (178 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Loras Col 04-Oct-16 05-Oct-16 500 4.4 46.6 37.0 C+9.6
Gravis 04-Oct-16 04-Oct-16 1102 3.0 48.0 40.0 C+8.0
Emerson 19-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 700 3.6 44.6 38.3 C+6.3


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 402 4.9 19.0 54.0 T+35.0