The previous analysis last Thursday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton winning the election with near certainty with, on average, 333 electoral votes (EVs) to Donald Trump’s 205 EVs.
Since then, there have been 91 new new polls released that satisfy my inclusion criteria. So today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,714 times and Trump wins 286 times (including the 9 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 (-18) to Trump’s 223 (+18) electoral votes.
In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.7% (-0.3%) probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.3% probability of winning.
There are a few interesting changes since Thursday. Most notably, Alaska is suddently blue! The only current poll has Clinton up by +4%. Previous polls had Trump leading. The trend towards Clinton looks plausible:
New polls have turned Arizona back to red again after being blue for some days. Last Thursday, Clinton would have won AZ with a 75% probability. Today, Trump would win with a 77% probability. The trend toward Trump is convincing:
Florida had been leaning blue last Thursday. A bunch of new polls has painted a redder picture, although Clinton’s chances have only dropped from 84% to 68%. Here is the last week of polling:
In Indiana, a new Trump+11 poll has strengthened Trump’s chances from 89% to 98%.
Last week we had two Iowa polls that, together, favored Trump. Now, the only current poll is a tie between the candidates dropping Trump’s chances from 71% to 50%.
Some new Maine polls have changed little beyond the state’s 2nd congressional district. Trump had a weak lead last week and now Clinton leads in two of the three current polls. Trump had a 58% chance of taking the CD last week; now Clinton has a 57% chance of taking it.
In Minnesota, a new poll gives Clinton a +10 margin, increasing her chances of taking the state to 99%.
In rare gains for Clinton, a new Montana poll only has Trump up by +1% instead of double digits. This lowers Trump’s chances from 100% to 97.7%.
We have three new polls in Nevada, and two of them give Trump a slight lead. The result is that Clinton’s chances have dropped from 83% to 56%. The state is, essentially, tied now.
Since last week, eight new North Carolina polls have come and a few lost out for a total of 14 current polls. What do all they new polls reveal? Clinton still has an 80% chance of taking the state. Here is the last two months of polling:
Ohio has gone more strongly for Trump. Last Thursday, Trump had an 89% chance of taking the state. Today that is 98%.
Oregon went from three current polls to one new one with Clinton at +7%. Because the poll is small there is great uncertainty, and Clinton’s chances have dropped to about 90%.
Pennsylvania has had a big polling rush the last few days. It hasn’t made much difference. Clinton wins every one, even if by small margins.
Last week, Trump was badly slipping in Texas, with +3% and +4% polls. Now, we have two new polls with Trump at +7% and +12%. Consequently Clinton’s chances have dropped in Texas from 14% to 0.1%.
Something similar has happened in Utah—polls tanked for Trump last week. This week they rebound with Trump up last week from 87% to about 100%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2015 to 02 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 326 electoral votes with a 5.84% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 4.16% probability
- 297 electoral votes with a 3.19% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 3.14% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 3.06% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 3.02% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.95% probability
- 320 electoral votes with a 2.88% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.84% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 99.7%, Trump wins less than 0.01%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 315.4 (17.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 222.6 (17.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 319 (281, 343)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 219 (195, 257)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
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