– I’m sure all of the reporters who were concerned about Darcy Burner’s inelegant explanation of her Harvard degree will be equally upset with Brad Toft’s makie uppie degree.
– Me too, too.
– Important news about the Northwest in national publications.
– Those who know the history of state hotline slipups involving Republican governors is clearly the greatest phrase ever.
– Happy Reloan Day, people on Kiva
Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was in Pittsburgh.
This week is normally a TV show or a movie, but since I don’t watch a whole lot of TV shows and movies, I’ve managed to run pretty thin on ideas. Instead, I want to try out something new. Google maps has started to integrate their own low-level views into their maps (I’m guessing they’ll get sued by Microsoft if they call them “Bird’s Eye Views”). I’ve been checking them out and despite having less coverage, they have better picture quality and they’ve got a few far-flung places that Microsoft doesn’t have yet. When I started doing these, I really hoped that it wouldn’t be too long before much more of the world had these maps, but there hasn’t been a lot of updating recently. And I’m starting to think that Google may get there faster.
So let’s consider this one a trial run. The view below is from the Google Maps page, which is also linked from the picture itself, good luck!
[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]
Doctrine and Covenants 52:42
And thus, even as I have said, if ye are faithful ye shall assemble yourselves together to rejoice upon the land of Missouri, which is the land of your inheritance, which is now the land of your enemies.
Discuss.
Stephen Colbert: Obama’s secret martian gayness.
Mark Fiore: It’s the Foreign Policy, Stupid!.
Young Turks: “Some girls rape easy,” says idiot politician.
Colbert: The 7-11/Pizza Hut election (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Bad Lip Reading: The first debate.
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Sam Seder: GOP Rep. who cut embassy security funds blames Obama for embassy attack.
Young Turks: Pro-life Rep. demands abortion for his mistress.
Willard (and Eddie)!
Jon: “Fucking crazy” GOP candidates .
Richard Alley on Abraham Lincoln and the Founding of the National Academy of Sciences.
Barely Political: Redneck political coverage.
Jim Lehrer: Badass moderator.
Ann Telnaes: Child Marriage.
Rob McKenna puts his dancing shoes on.
Grandpa versus Eddie Munster:
Kid President’s guide to being a party.
White House: West Wing Week.
Slate: Rape victims have a message for Todd Akin.
Liberal Viewer: When is Stephen Colbert joking?
Lisa Brown and Maria Cantwell channel SNL for Marcus Riccelli:
Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Jon: Poll are so worthless but so quotable (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
| Obama | Romney |
| 93.9% probability of winning | 6.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 295 electoral votes | Mean of 243 electoral votes |
The Monte Carlo analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 303 to 235 electoral votes. If an election was held then, we would expect Obama to win with a 95.7% probability, and Romney with a 4.3% probability. Since Obama’s probability is greater than 95%, standard statistical reasoning would call Obama’s lead “statistically significant.”
Today there were lots of new polls released.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CA | Pepperdine U | 07-Oct | 10-Oct | 831 | 3.4 | 54.0 | 32.9 | O+21.1 |
| CA | SurveyUSA | 07-Oct | 09-Oct | 539 | 4.3 | 53 | 39 | O+14 |
| CO | SurveyUSA | 09-Oct | 10-Oct | 614 | 4.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| CO | Quinnipiac | 04-Oct | 09-Oct | 1254 | 3.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| FL | Rasmussen | 11-Oct | 11-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 47 | 51 | R+4 |
| FL | ARG | 08-Oct | 11-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| FL | Mason-Dixon | 08-Oct | 10-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 44 | 51 | R+7 |
| FL | Marist | 07-Oct | 09-Oct | 988 | 3.1 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| IL | Tribune WGN | 04-Oct | 08-Oct | 700 | 3.7 | 55 | 36 | O+19 |
| MA | PPP | 09-Oct | 11-Oct | 1051 | 3.0 | 55 | 41 | O+14 |
| MI | Rasmussen | 11-Oct | 11-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
| MI | Glengariff Group | 06-Oct | 08-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 49.0 | 42.3 | O+6.7 |
| MI | Gravis Marketing | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 1122 | 3.2 | 46.0 | 44.4 | O+1.6 |
| MT | PPP | 08-Oct | 10-Oct | 737 | 3.6 | 41 | 52 | R+11 |
| MT | MSU-Billings | 27-Sep | 30-Sep | 477 | 5.0 | 35 | 49 | R+14 |
| NV | PPP | 08-Oct | 10-Oct | 594 | 4.0 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| NV | Suffolk | 06-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.4 | 46.8 | 45.2 | O+1.6 |
| NH | ARG | 09-Oct | 11-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| NJ | Philadelphia Inquirer | 04-Oct | 08-Oct | 604 | 4.0 | 51 | 40 | O+11 |
| NC | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 51 | R+3 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 10-Oct | 10-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| OH | Gravis Marketing | 06-Oct | 10-Oct | 1313 | 2.7 | 45.1 | 45.9 | R+0.8 |
| OH | Marist | 07-Oct | 09-Oct | 994 | 3.1 | 51 | 45 | O+6 |
| OH | Pulse | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| PA | Pulse | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 04-Oct | 08-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
| VA | Rasmussen | 11-Oct | 11-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 47 | 49 | R+2 |
| VA | Marist | 07-Oct | 09-Oct | 981 | 3.1 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| VA | Pulse | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| VA | Quinnipiac | 04-Oct | 09-Oct | 1288 | 3.0 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| WI | Pulse | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| WI | Quinnipiac | 04-Oct | 09-Oct | 1327 | 3.0 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
Colorado turns red with the addition of two new polls that give Romney a +1% edge. Romney leads in five of seven current polls and has a 75% probability of taking the state now.
Three new Florida polls, also give Romney the edge. He leads Obama in five of the ten current polls, but by larger margins. Taken together, the simulation gives Romney a 76% chance of winning Florida now. Here’s the last three months:
Michigan voters seem content to supports Obama, if these three polls are representative. All five current polls go to Obama and they average out to a mid-single digit lead. The larger picture shows Obama with a pretty solid advantage:
Two new Nevada polls give Obama weak leads. In fact, Romney doesn’t lead in any of the five current polls, although one poll had the candidates tied. Taken together, Obama get a 74% probability of taking the state now.
A new New Hampshire poll goes surprisingly strongly for Romney—by +4%. The previous poll was a tie, and the oldest current poll has Obama up by a comfortable +15%. But fair warning: That poll was taken before the presidential debate! New Hampshire is definitely worth watching at this point. Here is the rather abrupt change in a picture:
Only one new North Carolina poll that puts Romney over Obama by +3%. Romney leads in three of the six current polls and all three post-presidential debate polls.
Four new Ohio polls split 3 to 1 for Obama. The President leads in 8 of 12 current polls. If the election was held now, the model predicts Obama would win Ohio with a 91% probability.
Pennsylvania is even stronger for Obama, who takes both of the new polls. Obama leads in all five of the current polls, and would be expected to win Pennsylvania now with a 94% probability.
Three Virginia polls give three results: a tie and a win for each candidate. When the current polls. are combined, Obama takes 50.4% of the pooled “votes”. And that translates into a 69% probability of winning an election right now. Here is the story in picture form:
Two new Wisconsin polls give Obama weak leads (+2% and +4%) over Romney. Obama’s lead has been cut from double digits just before the debate to about a +4% advantage. But the results give Obama a 98.4% probability of winning the state right now. The picture shows Obama with consistent lead in the state, if by a reduced margin:
When these new polls are added to the mix, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama the win 93,914 times and Romney, 6,086 times (including the 901 ties). Obama receives (on average) 295 (-8) to Romney’s 243 (+8) electoral votes. If an election was held today, we’d expect Obama to win with a 93.9% (-1.8%) probability. Romney would have a 6.1% (+1.8%) probability of winning. By standard statistical reasoning, Obama’s lead is no longer “statistical significant.”
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2011 to 12 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
Essentially, Mitt Romney rebounded back to where he was just after the Republican convention.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
– Yay for parks; boo for the accompanying picture that I can’t put my finger on it but creeps me out.
– No question about why these creep me out.
– Merry Christmas, Yakima.
– I would like to see some random questions from children in the next debate.
Former congressman Jay Inslee is going to debate Washington AG Rob McKenna in a couple of minutes. The Ale House will give me picture, but no audio. And I haven’t found the audio feed on my radio yet, but here is a thread for you to offer your own thoughts.
Have at it!
9:01: It sounds like KUOW really does have it on tonight. Bonus. In fact, I cannot see what is going on, but I can hear it, thanks to the miracle of the transistor (radio)!
9:03: McKenna refers to this debate as an “unprecedented event.” I don’t think it is quite that unique!
9:05: First question…what will you cut if we have a new recession? Ummm…isn’t the economy getting noticeably better?
9:07: So far, both candidates have been regurgitated talking points. Comeon guys…mix it up a bit. I already heard this debate.
9:10: How will each candidate meet the $4 billion court ordered funding level:
McKenna: Well…we can do it a bit at a time by some magic voodoo method.
Inslee: We can do it…by increasing percentage of budget going to education.
9:15: Inslee goes on the attack calling McKenna’s proposal a “gimmick.” Topic changes. The judges hold up a “Jay +1” sign.
9:17: Rob McKenna wants a level playing field for all businesses. That sure sounds like SOCIALISM to me.
9:19: Jay points out that Washington state gets ranked as one of the best places to have a business. Yes.
9:20: Early learning. McKenna wants to extend it to nursing visits for pregnant moms. Okay…I guess we can call that “early learning”. McKenna points out that many kindergartners are not prepared for kindergarten. WTF?????
9:23: Inslee has been advocating for early learning since 1980 (when McKenna was an adolescent). Good point!
9:24: Come to think of it, McKenna may STILL be an adolescent.
9:25: Inslee went to church in Seattle today where there were beautiful children. (Oops…out of time)
9:26: The TeeVee tells me that Detroit is kicking Oakland’s ass.
9:29: Fuck…this is boring. I want JOE!!!!
9:30: Inslee: Women should have access to contraceptive services (and men, for that matter).
9:31: Inslee supports marriage equality. McKenna…not so much.
9:34: McKenna starts doing metacommentary…
9:35: I see men hugging men on TeeVee. It isn’t a Dan Savage special…it’s PROFESSIONAL SPORTS!
9:37: Pot: Jay will vote no, but will uphold the will of the voters.
9:40: Pot: Rob…not so much.
9:41: Time out for a sec. GAWD…I cannot express how unappealing I find McKenna…WHAT A FUCKING WHINING, SNIVELING, GEEKY, SICKLY DWEEB. Okay…back to normal….
9:45: McKenna would operate in a “bipartisan fashon”. Yeah. Like being a founding principle in the failed state AG lawsuit against “Obamacare.”
9:49: On Gun Control: Inslee wants a zero-tolerance policy on violence. Complements his opponent on making progress in this area.
9:54: Inslee hits McKenna on that stupid “Old men sitting in a diner complaining about taxes” ad. I guess that’s okay, but that add is so amateurish that he didn’t really need to waste the words.
9:56: Closing statements. Fucking yeah!!!!
Take home message: McKenna is a congenital whiner. He can’t help it—it’s in his DNA. As a good liberal, I shouldn’t discriminate against him for it. But FUCK, IS HE FUCKING ANNOYING!!!!
Vice President Joe Biden faces off with Congressman Paul Ryan this evening at 6:00 PM. I’m about a mile from the Montlake Ale House in stop and go traffic, blogging while stopped.
If you can, please join the debate party at the Ale House.
6:03: [Darryl] GAME ON!
6:04: [Darryl] Paul Ryan lies on his second sentence. He says it took 2 weeks to call it a terrorist attack. In fact, Obama called it a terrorist attack the day after.
6:07: [Darryl] Whoa…Paul Ryan goes off into La La land…
6:07 [Carl] Ryan is annoying as fuck. Whenever someone says “Apologize for America” I want to scream.
6:10: [Darryl] Biden stumbles at the end of a good build-up, but essentially he successfully defended Ryan’s “weakness” bullshit.
6:12: [Darryl] Did anyone bother to prep. Ryan on the news of the day: (1) The Benghazi consulate was a CIA outpost, and (2) Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) Republicans cut funding for state dept. security.
6:13: [Carl] Moderator: “There’s no bigger national security issue than Iran.” Loose nukes?
6:17: [Darryl] Paul Ryan channels the Ayatollahs! That’s probably easy for him—you know, another reactionary religious fanatic.
6:17 [Carl] Ryan: “They’re spinning their centrifuges faster.” Is that the issue? I don’t know nuclear issues.
6:20: [Darryl] Biden calls Ryan on THE BIG MYTH: Iran is building a weapon. They aren’t.
6:23: [Darryl] Joe gets the last word: “This President doesn’t bluff!”
6:26: [Darryl] Joe gets to do a passionate stump speech. Ryan comes back by suggesting unemployment is getting worse!?! Does he think he can get away with that?
6:28: [Darryl] Ryan inserted a canned anecdote but it isn’t clear what it has to do with anything!
6:29: [Darryl] Joe gives his own death anecdote (a much more personal one), but it is ALSO off topic. These Bozos need to read the fucking COMMENT POLICY!
6:30: [Darryl] Mmmmm…Green Pork!
6:33: [Darryl] I’m probably biased, but from what I see, Biden is cleaning up when he points out that Ryan wrote advocating for stimulus funds.
6:36: [Darryl] I just figured out that Carl Ballard was trying to co-blog with me (virtually). So I updated with his queued stuff. Sorry Carl!
6:38: [Darryl] “Folks, follow your instincts on this one” — Joe Biden on the Ryan Medicare Voucher program.
6:39: [Darryl] Ryan: “They were caught with their hands in the cookie jar to fund ObamaCare”. Ummm…that is a very creative way of spinning cost savings that you, yourself proposed.
6:41: [Carl] When Ryan says he worked with “an Oregon Senator” that Oregon Senator already called him a liar.
6:43: [Darryl] Joe will not let young Eddie Munster get away with anything!
6:45: [Darryl] Paul Ryan’s hair is sweating something fierce!
6:47: [Darryl]: Shorter Ryan: Tax cuts for the wealthy will grow the economy! Didn’t we try that for 8 miserable years that ended in an economic calamity???
6:46: [Carl] I’m listening to this on the radio, like when I thought Obama did fine, but I think Biden is winning.
6:49: [Darryl] Ryan repeats Mitt’s lie about the “six studies” that support their “math”. Note to Republicans: Editorials don’t count as “studies”.
6:52: [Darryl] Biden is more effective on criticizing the Romney/Ryan tax program because he feeds specifics right back at Ryan. I don’t think Ryan is used to people seeing through his bullshit so easily.
6:54: [Darryl] The moderator said something about “math”! The Wingnut “BIAS” shitstorm begins in 3, 2, 1…
6:52: [Carl] The deficits are the least to worry about when the economy is on the rocks.
6:57: [Darryl] Now that I know that Paul Ryan sat with a Native American in Afghanistan in 2002 I may have to rethink this whole “voting for Obama” thing!!!
6:57: [Carl] Finally an hour into the second debate, we can mention the war.
7:02: [Darryl] Ryan tries to equivocate between keeping the deadline but not “emboldening our enemies” by giving a deadline.
7:01: [Carl] Ryan fucked up his growing abroad / not at home zinger. Parallel construction isn’t that tough.
7:05: [Darryl] Fuck…I’m voting for JOE!
7:07: [Darryl] Paul Ryan gets into some bizarre head movements while talking about fighting seasons. That’ll make for some fun YouTube remixes!
7:09: [Darryl] Sheesh…I’m pretty fucking sick of Biden making gaffe after gaffe….
7:10: [Darryl] Oops. I meant “pummel”, not gaffe.
7:11: [Carl] This anti-UN stuff from Ryan is making me think he hasn’t read Romney’s book where he praises the UN.
7:13: [Darryl] There are only 13 people in the world who knows Romney praises the UN in his book…and OUR Carl Ballard is one of them!
7:14: [Darryl] Ryan is pro-life because of “science”. Ryan saw a heartbeat in a itty bitty bean. That makes him believe life begins at conception. (Note: It doesn’t…a sperm and an egg are as alive as a fertilized egg.) So, I’m not sure where the science come into it.
7:14 [Carl] Remember when all of our trolls said Obama was making a mistake keeping Biden?
7:16 [Carl] I’m glad they’re talking about abortion, but throwing Catholicism in there is dumb.
7:18: [Darryl] Biden also believes that life begins at conception. But HE DOESN’T CLAIM THAT IS SCIENCE.
7:19: [Darryl] Ryan disses one entire branch of our government with his “unelected judges” comment. Why does he hate the Constitution? I mean if Jesus wanted judges elected he would have put it in the Constitution!!!
7:24: [Darryl] The candidates are asked about the nasty tone of the campaign. When Ryan goes, he launches into a nasty tirade. BIG TIME FAIL!
7:26: [Darryl] I remember just the other day…I was walking down the street and some homeless, runaway debt crisis tackled me! FUCK those tackling debt crises.
7:21 [Carl] So, looks like one abortion question, and it looks like there won’t be anything about the Violence Against Women Act being held up and only talked a little around birth control. Hard to believe that women are 52% of the population and are allowed to vote in this country.
7:29: [Darryl] Closing time…every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.
7:30: [Darryl] Ryan accuses Obama of “higher taxes”. NOT TRUE. BIG LIE.
7:32: [Darryl] Ryan asks me for my vote. “Fuck no…I’m voting JOE!”
It’s over. I’d be a big supporter of Paul Ryan if I wanted to invade Syria and Nuke Iran. Woooooohoooo…Bush-style Cowboy diplomacy all over again!!!!!
Even in this fairly straight AP piece reporting on McKenna’s supposed moderation, there’s this:
A political action committee funded by unions has been running attack ads with the message that McKenna is “not who he says he is.” A recent ad from the group tries to tie McKenna – in misleading or incorrect ways – to Republican positions on abortion, the national budget and health care.
I don’t have a TV, so I’ve only seen the ad once with the sound on. But it seemed more fair than not to me. The article mentions McKenna’s support of abortion rights (a better characterization might be that he knows he doesn’t have the votes to win on the issue), although abortion rights will probably be worse in the state after 4 years of McKenna than 4 years of Inslee. And the the other ones seem about right to me.
McKenna put himself, as the article notes several times, at the forefront of opposing the health care law. And while he personally only claimed to be opposed to part of it in court, that isn’t what his lawsuit argued. So he was happy to be part of that GOP extremism.
And as to the budget: well he has supported GOP budgets at the state that would have gutted education and social services. Maybe the ads should have focused on those instead of the federal budget, but they’re coming from the same place.
Finally, although the races for President and Congress will be the bigger story on election night, the races for governor will be part of that picture. And a McKenna win (or the aggregate of GOP victories at the state level including his) will be used at the federal level to argue for more restrictions on abortion and deeper cuts to social services. So maybe it’s not fair, but it is the reality.
Join us for an evening of drinks, conversation and political debate at a special Debate Night Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally. The event is Thursday evening.
There are two debates to watch: the VP debate between VP Joe Biden (D) and Congressman Paul Ryan (R), followed by a gubernatorial debate between former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and Washington AG Rob McKenna (R).
We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.
The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the VP debate begins at 6:00pm.
Note: We will have picture and audio for the VP debate. But for the gubernatorial debate, we’ll have the picture, but no sound. If you are serious about listening to the debate, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Even the VP debate my be hard to hear with the background noise. I believe KUOW will be broadcasting the debates. Additionally, the Montlake Alehouse has free WiFi. Ask your server for the password.
I’ll be live blogging (with Carl Ballard, I believe) from the Ale House. I hope you can join us.
In the comment thread this evening, Serial Conservative asked me to comment on this:
Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
It pains me to have to admit…I’m with Bill O’Reilly on this one:
Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly seemed perplexed, and asked Paleologos if he was certain those three states were already in the bag for Romney.
Here’s Mr. Paleologos’ reasoning:
“That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded.
“A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be.“So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded.
Whoa…hold on there a sec, Bucky! This poll?
Obama was LEADING in Florida. Not behind. Not tied. But leading by +3%.
A straightforward reading of that evidence suggests Obama was in the stronger position. But, Paleologos felt it was bad that Obama didn’t have 50%.
Two problems. First, 46% to 43% Obama lead did not include leaners. The poll actually did assessed leaners, though, and when you include them Obama is at 48%.
On top of that, the poll included 10 additional 3rd party or independent candidates! Those candidates got 2.5% of the “votes.” So…in a close state, where the scale for the two major party candidates goes from 0% to 97.5%, the middle of the scale is 48.75%, and Obama got 48%. That’s pretty fucking close to half the available votes.
Moreover, in this poll, Obama beat Romney in favorability 51% to 45%.
Really…this “theory” by Paleologos seem pretty fucking far fetched to me.
The story is not too dissimilar in Virginia. The last Suffolk poll had Obama leading Romney, 46% to 44%. With leaners, it was a 46.5% to 44.8% race. There were three third-party candidates on the ballot that took 2.2% of the “votes” away. And, again, Obama beat Romney in favorability, 52% to 42%.
Once again, it is pretty fucking bizarre to use this poll to argue that Obama will lose the state.
And here’s the bizarre thing about North Carolina: Suffolk hasn’t done any North Carolina polling. I don’t find them in my database, RCP doesn’t have ’em either. I’ve checked with a few online polling aggregation sites, and find no evidence that Suffolk has done any polling in the state. I guess this means he is relying on other people’s polls (OPP, as we say in the biz).
So let’s look at OPP in Florida for the past two months:
A plain reading of this graph suggests that Obama took the lead from Romney by mid-September and held a pretty solid lead until the post-debate period. And then it looks pretty much like a tie. My most recent analysis gives Obama a 54.9% chance of winning the state now, based on the last six polls in the state.
And now for some OPP from Virginia over the past two months:
Really, Virginia shows an identical pattern. Indeed, my Monte Carlo analysis puts the race in Virginia at a tie right at the moment.
And North Carolina with two months of OPP:
It looks like Obama led from mid-September to late September. The two October polls give Romney the lead, for sure, but a “certain win”? Well…Romney would have a 95% probability of winning the state in an election held now, according to my analysis of this polling evidence.
I can buy an argument the Romney is likely to take North Carolina. But he has a bit of work to do before it is a “sure thing.” For Florida and Virginia, only a fool could look at this collection of evidence objectively and find a “certain” win for either candidate. These two states are very close right now. More polling is needed, not less!
So I don’t know what the hell David Paleologos was babbling about. It seems illogical. You know…an opinion that is free from being encumbered by evidence.
The worst part: I’m still creeped out by finding myself in agreement with Bill O’Reilly. I mean, what the fuck?!?
Mike McGinn has a post on his city blog where he thanks several companies for pitching in and helping to pay for the streetcar in South Lake Union.
Today we gathered in South Lake Union to thank four local employers who are investing $204,000 to increase service on the Seattle Streetcar. These employers – Group Health, Amazon.com, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and UW Medicine – know that more frequent service on this line is a good thing for their employees, and are stepping up to the plate to make a private investment in a public service.
Now to be clear, I’m glad they pitched in. And thanking them for it is perfectly appropriate. More frequent trips are good. And if this is the way you do it, well fine.
Fine, but not great. Because if we need more frequent trips, the city government should be able to figure out a way to pay for it that doesn’t rely on the generosity of a few large employers.
| Obama | Romney |
| 95.7% probability of winning | 4.3% probability of winning |
| Mean of 303 electoral votes | Mean of 235 electoral votes |
The previous analysis (three days ago) showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 342 to 196 electoral votes. I was using a 21 day “current poll” window, but promised a shorter one soon. I had previously decided to switch to a 14 day “current poll” window on the 10th of this month, and that is today.
So, for comparison, using a 14 day window three days ago we had Obama leading Romney 316 to 222 electoral votes, and a 99.2% probability of winning an election held then.
Over the past three days, we have 32 new polls that cover 20 states plus each of Maine’s two congressional districts. Most of the polls are post-first-debate. Here are the details:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| CO | ARG | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.0 | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| CT | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 45 | O+6 |
| FL | UNF | 01-Oct | 09-Oct | 653 | 3.5 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
| IA | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| LA | Magellan Strategies | 02-Oct | 08-Oct | 2682 | 1.9 | 36 | 59 | R+23 |
| ME | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 400 | 4.9 | 50.8 | 36.8 | O+14.0 |
| ME1 | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 200 | — | 52.5 | 35.4 | O+17.1 |
| ME2 | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 200 | — | 49.0 | 38.1 | O+10.9 |
| MA | WBUR | 05-Oct | 07-Oct | 501 | 4.4 | 52 | 36 | O+16 |
| MA | UMass | 02-Oct | 08-Oct | 437 | 5.0 | 55 | 34 | O+21 |
| MA | WNEU | 28-Sep | 04-Oct | 440 | 4.7 | 63 | 33 | O+30 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 04-Oct | 06-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 45 | O+3 |
| MI | Baydoun | 05-Oct | 05-Oct | 1122 | 2.9 | 49.3 | 45.8 | O+3.5 |
| MN | PPP | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 937 | 3.2 | 53 | 43 | O+10 |
| MT | PPP | 08-Oct | 10-Oct | 737 | 3.6 | 41 | 52 | R+11 |
| NV | Rasmussen | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
| NV | SurveyUSA | 03-Oct | 08-Oct | 1222 | 2.9 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| NH | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| NM | Rasmussen | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 54 | 43 | O+11 |
| NC | Gravis Marketing | 06-Oct | 08-Oct | 1325 | 2.9 | 41.2 | 49.9 | R+8.7 |
| ND | Mason-Dixon | 03-Oct | 05-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 40 | 54 | R+14 |
| OH | SurveyUSA | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 808 | 3.5 | 45.3 | 44.1 | O+1.2 |
| OH | CNN/OR | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 722 | 3.5 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| OH | ARG | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| OH | Wenzel | 04-Oct | 05-Oct | 1072 | 3.0 | 47.3 | 48.0 | R+0.7 |
| PA | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| PA | Susquehanna | 04-Oct | 06-Oct | 725 | 3.7 | 47.3 | 45.4 | O+1.9 |
| PA | Siena | 01-Oct | 05-Oct | 545 | 4.2 | 43 | 40 | O+3 |
| RI | Brown U | 26-Sep | 05-Oct | 496 | 4.4 | 58.2 | 32.3 | O+25.9 |
| VA | PPP | 04-Oct | 07-Oct | 725 | 3.7 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 49 | O+2 |
The candidates split the Colorado polls, with +1% for Obama and a +4 for Romney. The current polls split three to three between the candidates, giving Romney a very slight edge—a 53% probability of taking the state if the election was now. This is a pretty significant shift as can be seen from the polling history over the past three months:
One new Florida poll has Romney up by +4%. Obama takes four of the six current polls and ends up with a slight edge of a 55% probability of winning now.
Obama gets another small Iowa lead, this time by +2%. He is down to an 85% probability of winning an election now. A week ago, that was a 99% probability….
Obama also holds a small +3% lead in the two new Michigan polls. That is a big drop from the double digit lead he has in the oldest current poll. Still, the evidence suggests Obama would take Michigan in an election now.
Minnesota gives Obama a double digit lead (+10%) in the only post-debate poll for the state.
Romney maintains his strong lead in Montana with this new poll.
Two very close Nevada polls taken together give Obama a very slight lead. Three of the four current polls were taken after the debate and show a very small Obama advantage. The oldest current poll gives Obama a +10%. Here is another view:
Today’s New Hampshire poll has Obama and Romney tied up. This new poll is the only post-debate poll of the three current polls.
New Mexico gives Obama a solid +11% lead over Romney. Essentially, this is as good as Obama was doing before the Debate.
In North Carolina, Romney leads Obama by a single-digit +8.7%. Romney takes three of the five current polls, including both post-debate polls. Romney has a 95% chance in the state for an election now.
Four new polls in Ohio split between Obama and Romney. Combined with four other current polls, Obama ends up with an 86% probability in an election now. Here’s the picture:
Obama keeps the lead in the three new Pennsylvania polls, albeit by smaller margins than he had pre-debate:
Obama leads in the latest Virginia poll. Combined with three other current polls we have a dead even race in the state. The polling history tells the post-debate story:
Obama maintains a weak +2% lead in Wisconsin, where his chances in the state have dropped to 97% for an election now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections using a 21 day window, Obama wins 95,666 times and Romney wins 4,334 times (and he get the 347 ties). Obama receives (on average) 303 (-13) to Romney’s 235 (+13) electoral votes. In an election held now, we could expect Obama to win with a 95.7% (-3.5%) probability of winning. That is, Romney surges to a 4.3% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2011 to 10 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
– The Bill of Reproductive Rights.
– I know Brad Owen is pretty shitty. But Democrats who don’t like him should have put some effort into a primary challenge instead of supporting a Republican.
– Romney Proudly Explains How He’s Turned Campaign Around ‘I’m Lying More,’ He Says
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