I’m not a huge college football fan, but I was glad that there will be a 4 team playoff in college football starting in 2014. It seems like the worthiness of the third and fourth choices is often indistinguishable from the second team that actually gets to play for the championship. I imagine there will still be controversies about who gets to play in this tournament. But a debate about who is the number 4 team is very different from a debate about who is the number 2 team.
Sanctuary
I’m still reading through the Arizona immigration Supreme Court decision, but I expect that come Thursday, all of the Supreme Court discussion discussion will be about health care. So I’d like to get to the logical conclusion of Scalia’s dissent before that happens. It seems to me that if this is true, then it cuts both ways.
In his point-by-point defense of the Arizona legislation, the avowed law-and-order conservative surmised that the Obama administration “desperately wants to avoid upsetting foreign powers.” He accused federal officials of “willful blindness or deliberate inattention” to the presence of illegal immigrants in Arizona.
“[T]o say, as the Court does, that Arizona contradicts federal law by enforcing applications of the Immigration Act that the President declines to enforce boggles the mind,” Scalia wrote. “If securing its territory in this fashion is not within the power of Arizona, we should cease referring to it as a sovereign State.”
If a state has the right to, essentially do anything to keep anyone out, doesn’t another state have the right to keep anyone in? Or to make anyone a citizen? It seems to me if states can’t decide who is a citizen of the United States we can’t call them sovereign states. I guess that’s why we don’t.
So it seems to me if Scalia’s positions ever become the majority on the court, Washington should become a sanctuary state. We should let anyone become a citizen as long as they aren’t here to do us harm.
Poll Analysis: Romney creeps up a bit
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.3% probability of winning | 0.7% probability of winning |
| Mean of 323 electoral votes | Mean of 215 electoral votes |
Nine new state head-to-head polls have been released in the contest between Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama since my previous analysis:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | WeAskAmerica | 25-Jun | 25-Jun | 1083 | 3.0 | 46.6 | 43.0 | O+3.6 |
| MI | Denno Research | 14-Jun | 15-Jun | 600 | 4.0 | 40 | 40 | tie |
| NH | ARG | 21-Jun | 24-Jun | 417 | — | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| NC | Rasmussen | 25-Jun | 25-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
| OH | PPP | 21-Jun | 24-Jun | 673 | 3.8 | 47 | 44 | O+3 |
| OR | PPP | 21-Jun | 24-Jun | 686 | 3.7 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
| UT | Dan Jones | 15-Jun | 21-Jun | 1222 | 2.8 | 26 | 68 | R+42 |
| VA | WeAskAmerica | 25-Jun | 25-Jun | 1106 | 3.0 | 43.3 | 48.0 | R+4.7 |
| VA | ODU | 16-May | 15-Jun | 776 | 3.5 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
The unsurprising polls include one from Oregon that gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney, and the first poll of the year in Utah that gives Romney a +42% advantage over Obama.
Colorado puts Obama up by +3.6% over Romney. The four current polls weigh solidly in Obama’s favor, as does the overall polling picture:

The fourth Michigan poll released in the past week has the race tied at 40% each. Combined with two other recent polls, Obama has the slightest lead in the state overall, giving him an expected 68% probability of taking the state (if the election was held now).
The second New Hampshire poll in a week has Obama up by a tight +3% over Romney. (Note that I used the Likely Voter results instead of the Registered Voter results given for this poll.) The pair of polls combined gives Obama an 81% chance of taking the state at this point.
Romney takes the most recent North Carolina poll with a weak +3% lead over Obama. That makes five leads in a row for Mitt, all since mid-May:

Ohio gives Obama a small +3% lead, breaking Romney’s two poll lead streak. The three current polls in that race give Romney a thin 55% probability of taking the state at this point:

Two new Virginia polls split. One goes to Obama by +7% and the other goes to Romney by +4.7%. The weight of the evidence from the five recent polls is that Obama would take the state now with a 83% probability.
I want to again express my gratitude to Sam Minter, who does his own poll aggregation exercise. Sam systematically compared our poll databases, resolved the discrepancies, and sent corrections to me over the past month. Also, I thank the HA commenter who noticed an error in the Nebraska past elections numbers, and persisted in getting through to me when I missed his comment.
Okay…so now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,310 times and Romney wins 690 times (including the 63 ties). Obama takes (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. For an election held now, Obama would have a 99.3% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.7% probability of winning.
Since the previous analysis Romney has gained an expected +3 electoral votes and has more than doubled his probability of winning (now), but that works out to less than a 1% probability overall of winning.


Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight there are elections in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, but we’ll likely ignore them to talk about other issues: the Governor and AG races in Washington, as well as recent and forthcoming Supreme Court decisions.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. Then on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.
With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
Open Thread 6/26
– This chart of Congressional wealth is one of those charts that shocks you with things you could have guessed.
– The Seattle Great Wheel looks like it will be pretty neat.
– This idea for filibuster reform is a bit overly complex. But in general it’s solid.
– WTF, SPD?
Going After The Right Person
I like Darcy Burner, but unlike a lot of bloggers, I’m willing to wait and see who gets through the primary. I don’t live in the district so I don’t have to choose. And a lot of the candidates have done good things. Still, I’m encouraged by things like this in my email box.
I’ve heard Republicans lie. I’ve heard Fox News manipulate the truth. I’ve heard plenty of outrageous things. John Koster proved that through either ignorance or willful rejection of reality, Republicans can still shock me.
In an interview that will air on Sunday on King5, a question was asked about Congress addressing marriage equality. I answered that not only should we repeal DOMA, but we should go further and provide all married couples with all of the Federal benefits of marriage.
I was stunned by what followed.
John Koster jumped right in with an outrageous statement.
“…there is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act…”
Yes, of course on one level, it’s another fundraising appeal. Still I’m glad the heat is directed to Koster, and not the other Democrats.
Now look, I love primaries and I have no problem with them getting a bit rough and tumble (there are important issues at play). But these are the sort of things I love most about primaries. Even if Rudderman wins, all of Darcy Burner’s supporters (who bother to open their email, and read it) will have seen this. And if any media (beyond HA) mention it, even better.
Open Thread 6/25
– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.
– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].
– Give me a rambling rover.
Bird’s Eye View Contest
Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the Whispering Firs Golf Course on JBLM.
This week’s contest is related to something in the news from June, good luck!
HA Bible Study
Psalm 82:1
When all of the other gods have come together, the Lord God judges them
Discuss.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Obama For America outtakes.
Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:
Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.
Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.
ONN: The Onion Week in Review.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.
Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!
Full of Mitt:
- SlateNews: Mitt to America: Ignore the good news.
- Sam Seder: Mitt talks and talks but won’t answer on immigration.
- Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt Romney wants G.O.P. Govs to lie to Americans.
- Obama on Mitt Romney outsourcing jobs.
- Thom: Mitt wants a 12.5% Tax Break that you pay for.
- Mitt Romeny on immigration reform.
- Maddow: Romney fails to lead on immigration
- Ann Telnaes: Mitt explains his immigration policy.
- Sam Seder: Mitt’s sons on their dad.
- Romney learns about
touchtonetouch screen technology (via Slog). - John King on Romney’s immigration speech
- Mark Fiore: DeficitBots.
- Sam Seder: Mitt to G.O.P. Governors, “Shhhhhhhh”.
Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.
Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.
Indecision in the park.
A clown answer for Harry Reid:
Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.
Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?
Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.
Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.
Fast, but mostly Furious:
- Thom and Pap: Ongoing Fast and Furious conspiracy theory.
- Jon attacks the Obama admin over executive privilege.
- Sam Seder: GOP’s sad attempt at finding a scandal.
- Ed and Pap: Darrel Issa’s contempt for democracy
- Maddow: Gun fanatics invent conspiracy, ignore real gun violence.
- Thom: F&F, why didn’t Pelosi arrest Rove?
ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.
Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.
Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.
Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.
Obama in Tampa.
“Joe” the “Historian”:
- Slate News: Joe’s surreal ad
- “Joe” the “Plumber” blames gun control for the Holocaust.
- Sam Seder: Joe’s new bizarre ad.
White House: West Wing Week.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.
Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.
Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.
Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Romney slips
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
| Mean of 326 electoral votes | Mean of 212 electoral votes |
Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.
There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AZ | PPP | 04-Jun | 05-Jun | 791 | 3.5 | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| CO | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 799 | 3.5 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 12-Jun | 18-Jun | 1697 | 2.4 | 46 | 42 | O+4 |
| IA | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1086 | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
| ME | WBUR | 13-Jun | 14-Jun | 506 | 4.4 | 48 | 34 | O+14 |
| MI | Mitchell | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 750 | 3.6 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| MI | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1010 | 3.1 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| MI | Rasmussen | 14-Jun | 14-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
| MI | Baydoun | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 1783 | 2.3 | 46.9 | 45.5 | O+1.4 |
| MT | Rasmussen | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 400 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
| NE | PNA | 11-Jun | 13-Jun | 601 | — | 40 | 52 | R+12 |
| NV | PPP | 07-Jun | 10-Jun | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
| NH | Rasmussen | 20-Jun | 20-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 43 | O+5 |
| NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 31-May | 04-Jun | 1065 | 2.9 | 56 | 33 | O+23 |
| WA | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 1073 | 3.0 | 54 | 41 | O+13 |
| WA | Elway | 13-Jun | 16-Jun | 408 | 5.0 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
| WI | Marquette | 13-Jun | 15-Jun | 594 | 4.1 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
What Would You Poll?
Via Blue Oregon, I see that PPP are asking for suggestions for what they want polled in OR, OH and MA. But it got me thinking of some things I’d like polled in Washington.
- I know it’s my hobby horse, and nobody else cares. But I’d like to see if there’s any support for making it necessary to get 2/3 of the legislature to cut education or social services.
- I don’t trust the conventional wisdom on the 10th district. I don’t know that a district that’s largely exurban and suburban Pierce County and has Joint Base Lewis-McChord in the middle of it with Olympia (and Olympia’s suburbs) should be considered safe for Democrats. I’d like to see polling confirming that.
- Since we’re on this blog, how about “Is Tim Eyman a Horse’s Ass?”
But enough of me saying what I’d like to see, what would you like to see in polls in Washington State?
Is Opposing Marriage Equality Christian?
I don’t think it is. I mean we’re a secular country. So our laws don’t reflect one doctrine or one religion over another. And Christians who oppose letting anyone getting married clearly aren’t the oppressed minority they seem to think they are.
Still, it’s nice to see the push back from the Christian community beyond just a live and let live attitude. Joel Connelly has an interesting piece on the Minnesota anti-marriage equality constitutional amendment. After noting the official Catholic Church position, he talks about Catholics who oppose the amendment:
Three retired priests recently sent a letter to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune under the heading, “Catholics of Minnesota, you have a choice. There is not just one way for Catholics to vote in November.”
Rev. Tom Garvey, a priest for 55 years, spoke to Minnesota Public Radio about Nienstedt’s edict, saying: “That was a terrible thing, such an injustice to say you cannot disagree with me on this matter.”
And in other religions, the officialdom is getting on the right side of history.
Five synods of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ECLA) have voted to oppose it. The United Methodist Church in Minnesota has come out against it.
The proposed amendment “would prevent one group of committed couples and their families from pursuing ordinary legislative or legal means to gain the support and protections afforded to all others,” said a resolution passed by the Minneapolis Synod of the ECLA.
Open Thread 6/21
– Oh, that kind of marriage equality.
– I didn’t know anything about the story of the story KIRO ran about the Leschi custodian. But the response from the Washington News Council makes me glad there’s at least some type of accountability.
– The Interurban Trail in Edmonds.
– Another 36th District debate.
– How have you been celebrating National Pollinator Week?
Sex Demons
I should start out by saying that Mars Hill have been good neighbors since they opened a church in my neighborhood. They’re a part of the community, and it’s appreciated. That said, what the fuck [h/t]?
“Mark started the meeting by telling us he was convinced that I had demons,” says Amy, “and then he went on to add that my demons were ‘sexual demons’.”
Amy describes Mark’s demeanor toward her as a “fiery tirade”. During this encounter, Mark told Amy he believed that every one of her sins were “sex based.” He said that the demons inside her were out to destroy every one of the marriages in their circle of friends.
Really, I don’t know what to say (other than muttering “sex demons?” repeatedly under my breath, and that’s probably not helpful).
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