Last week’s contest was damn near impossible. The correct answer was Houston, Texas. This one was so hard, it actually took me 10 minutes to re-find it in order to post the link.
This week’s is a little easier, also a random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!
Leviticus 3:17
So you and your descendants must never eat any fat or any blood, not even in the privacy of your own homes. This law will never change.
Discuss.
It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.
I should be able to do some commentary.
Have at it in the comment thread.
4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:
The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….
4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.
4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:
5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.
5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.
5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):
5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.
5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.
5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:
5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]
The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.
The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)
WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.
WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.
These ratings have been stable for awhile.
Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.
Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:
The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….
Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.
And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.
Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.
I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.
Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.
So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.
An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.
The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….
Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.
The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.
This is going to get real interesting!
Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.
ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.
Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.
Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
The SuperPAC Bites Back:
Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.
White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:
Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?
Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).
Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.
Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).
Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.
The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:
Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.
Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.
Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.
Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.
White House: West Wing Week.
Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:
Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.
The Komen Kaper:
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.
Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.
Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.
Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:
My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.
Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.
The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.
If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.
[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]
Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | G | diff |
| FL | Marist | 25-Jan | 27-Jan | 2795 | 1.9 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
| FL | Mason-Dixon | 24-Jan | 26-Jan | 800 | 3.5 | 41 | 50 | G+9 |
| GA | SurveyUSA | 01-Feb | 02-Feb | 1144 | 3.0 | 43.9 | 49.7 | G+5.9 |
| MO | PPP | 27-Jan | 29-Jan | 582 | 4.1 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| OH | PPP | 28-Jan | 29-Jan | 820 | 3.4 | 51 | 39 | O+12 |
The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.
In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.
Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.
The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.
| Obama | Gingrich |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 421 electoral votes | Mean of 117 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Erica C. Barnett reports on a new study on gendered disparities in public transit. And while the study didn’t apply to Puget Sound transit orgs, Barnett looks at their conclusions and at Sound Transit, finding them lacking in at least one area.
What are the implications? The Atlantic suggests that if transit agencies take women’s needs into account, they will provide easier boarding and wider aisles (for women with strollers or heavy bags) and more transit service in care-related sites, like parks, daycares, and schools. Additionally, transit agencies could include more women on their boards, the Atlantic suggests. Although Sound Transit, the regional transit agency for the Puget Sound, is led by a woman, Joni Earl, its 16-member board is dominated by men, with just four female members. (It’s all-white, too).
Also, the King County Council Transportation, Economy and Environment Committee that deals with public transportation is 2/3 men (the same makeup as the entire council) and that the chair and vice chair are both men.
When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.
So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:
Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.
There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.
The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | Marist | 25-Jan | 27-Jan | 2795 | 1.9 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
| MO | PPP | 27-Jan | 29-Jan | 582 | 4.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
| OH | PPP | 28-Jan | 29-Jan | 820 | 3.4 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).
Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.4% probability of winning | 0.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 332 electoral votes | Mean of 206 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
– Reproductive Health and Rights Lobby Day
– Darryl noted the state senate passing the marriage equality bill. Andrew has more details including the roll call.
– And a couple bad bills fail to make it to the floor.
– In other states: Do not let the media silence fool you: Hoosiers are making noise.
– Republican Jesus supports Mitt Romney.
Senate Bill 6239 that legalizes same-sex marriage, passed tonight.
The Senate was the big hurdle for this bill, pushed by Gov. Christine Gregoire as part of her final agenda as Governor.
The bill passed 28 to 21. That’s quite a shift from two weeks ago, when only 23 Senators publicly supported it.
Sen. Ed Murray, who has fought for many years to end discrimination against same-sex couples, will now get married to his long-time partner, Michael Shiosaki.
Congrats, guys!
I’d like to follow up on Darryl’s piece about Darcy Burner’s polling. Specifically going after the unelectable meme. That she’s “some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran.” Darryl does good work dispelling it.
Leaving aside the Kos thing, I think you have to say that the most important factor going forward in the first is whatever Democrat gets through is going to have to earn it. The district isn’t a gimmie for anyone; it’s rather large and neither party can hold a claim to it. So I think whoever works hardest and can present a compelling vision to the voters will win.
But here’s the interesting thing to me: All of that also applies to the newly created 10th district, and many of the people who are opposed to Darcy Burner because she lost a tough race don’t seem to have any problem with Denny Heck running again. Many of the same people criticizing Burner are calling the district centered around suburban-exurban Pierce and Thurston Counties the “Denny Heck District.”
Now, it’s probably a moderately Democratic district, and one Heck should be able to win if he works hard and presents the right message. Problem is, he’s already lost in a district like that, and unlike with Burner it wasn’t to an incumbent. To be clear, I think Heck can win the 10th and Burner or any Democrat can win the 1st. But I wonder why the narratives are so different between the two of them.
By “Romney family member,” I mean the Romeny’s former family dog, an Irish Setter named Seamus.
Seamus achieved fame and glory during the 2008 presidential campaign cycle after one of Romney’s sons told a treasured family story:
In June 2007 the Boston Globe reported that in 1983, current Republican presidential hopeful (and former Massachusetts governor) Mitt Romney had placed his Irish setter in a dog carrier on the roof of his station wagon for a 12-hour trip to his parents’ cottage on the Canadian shores of Lake Huron. He’d built a windshield for the carrier to make the ride more comfortable for the dog. He’d also made it clear to his five sons that bathroom breaks would be taken only during predetermined stops to gas up the car.
The dog spoiled this plan by letting loose with a bout of diarrhea during its rooftop sojourn, necessitating an unplanned gas station visit for the purpose of hosing down the pooch, its carrier, and the back of the car.
There are now two competing theories on the fate of Seamus. The orthodox theory is that Seamus was eventually given to Mitt’s sister:
The Romneys eventually dealt with Seamus’s apostasy, and nervous stomach, by fobbing him off on Mitt’s sister, Jane, who lived in California and was said to have space for the dog to roam freely, unfettered by straps, crates or station wagons.
And now we have a competing theory:
Mitt Romney may not have told the whole truth about the scandalous tale of his Irish Setter, Seamus, being strapped to the roof of his car during a 12-hour family road trip to Canada. According to a trusted Politicker tipster, two of Mr. Romney’s sons had an off-record conversation with reporters where they revealed the dog ran away when they reached their destination on that infamous journey in 1983.
That’s right…Seamus became a “draft” dodger by running away in Canada.
The Obama campaign uses the incident to draw a distinction between the two men.
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