Elway released a new poll today for the Washington state gubernatorial race between A.G. Rob McKenna (R) and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01). The poll surveyed 405 registered voters (M.O.E. 5%) and was conducted from the 7th to the 9th of February.
The poll found that, out of those 405 voters, McKenna leads Inslee 45% to 36%, with 20% undecided. Of the 328 “decided” voters, 55.5% selected McKenna and 44.5% selected Inslee.
A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections [FAQ] using the observed percentages gave McKenna 918,606 wins to Inslee’s 75,709 wins. The analysis suggests that, if the election had been held this past week, McKenna would have a 92.4% probability of winning, and Inslee a 7.6% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral outcomes from the simulated elections:
This makes the fifth poll in a row that McKenna has led Inslee—his lead can no longer be explained by chance. The previous poll, taken in mid-January, had McKenna leading Inslee 46% to 43% and with a 71.5% probability of beating Inslee. In fact, Inslee last led in a SurveyUSA poll taken last June.
The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.
Name familiarity is a factor in McKenna’s early lead, but Inslee has several things working against him: Public antipathy against Congress (of which he’s a member), Gregoire fatigue, and maybe a feeling among voters that after 32 straight years of Democratic governors it’s time to give a Republican a chance. I’m not saying those are reasons to vote for McKenna; they’re not — McKenna would be a terrible choice for our state. But it’s clear that Inslee faces an uphill fight and has plenty of work to do. He needs to differentiate himself from Gregoire, debunk McKenna’s fake “moderate” image, and offer voters clear-cut and positive reasons to vote for him.
How much is Inslee campaigning? I see McKenna ads everywhere, including on this site.
I don’t know that Inslee can differentiate himself from Gregoire. And he has been a super dud of a candidate thus far.
I don’t get the sense at all that Inslee really wants the job. And so I wish another candidate would choose to run.
Despite McKenna’s shameless pandering to the wing nut sector, it is hard to imagine either candidate doing as much harm to the state as the Washington State legislature has overall. The gay marriage law is a burst of courage that I didn’t think they had in them. But other than that, they are a collective disaster.
Terrible choice for the state?
Yes it would be a terrible choice for the state after Gregoire. NOT
Mickey Mouse would be more fiscally stable than Gregoire.
Go McKenna!
@4 Gregoire didn’t cause the state’s fiscal instability, the Republican Depression of 2007-? did.
Inslee doesn’t seem be campaigning for the job, just phoning it in. I also wish someone with fire in his belly would run.
I was pretty excited when Inslee threw his hat in the ring, but so far I’m not impressed.
@4 The last thing Washington needs is a Scott Walker clone in Olympia.
CBS Poll: Obama Beats Every Republican
The bad news for Mittster is that Ricky Sanitarium polls almost as well as he does. The good news for Mittster (if there is such a thing) is that even Ron Paul polls better against Obama than Gingrich.
Obama 48%
Romney 42%
Obama 49%
Santorum 41%
Obama 50%
Paul 39%
Obama 54%
Gingrich 36%
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50.....bsCarousel
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Who gets the GOP nomination is academic, because none of those guys is going to be president. Romney isn’t trusted and has too much baggage. Santorum is too radical. Paul is a fringe candidate. Gingrich is a bright guy but has a trainload of baggage. This race is all but over; Obama is going to get a second term by default. We should concentrate our efforts on making sure no Republican ever runs our state government again.
I would echo the above comments. I’m beginning to worry about this race – driven by the lack of Inslee presence. Where is he?
He needs to take ti to McKenna, blow away the fake moderation, get labor and environment and women energized, paint McKenna for the troglodyte that he is under the aw-shucks, nerd-technocrat “reasonable conservative” veneer.
AND he needs to articulate, and broadcast, a positive vision – jobs, Jobs JOBS! Infrastructure, education, health care access.
I’m waiting.
Heaven help this state if McKenna wins! Another Scott Walker, or worst!
Aside from the fact that McKenna would be a disaster for the state, what do we have? If that’s the best we can do in terms of an endorsement for whomever is running against him, there you have the reason for the polls.
Other than the fact that he isn’t McKenna, I don’t know anything about Inslee. I did read an article that featured an interview with him and he was putting absolutely nothing on the line in terms of strength of conviction. Nothing.
here: http://slog.thestranger.com/sl.....e-promises
It’s February, folks. I really don’t get terribly worried about current gubernatorial polls. Jay will be a great candidate. He’s always spoken from the heart and shows great passion.
Inslee missed big opportunity to differentiate himself from the “also ran” on his NDAA vote. And he missed pushing an amendment to clarify NDAA ambiguity. Oh well.
Why would McKenna be a disaster for the state? Just like I’m not hearing any good reasons to vote for Inslee, I’m not hearing any facts that make McKenna seem like a bad choice either.
Sammy, well there are many reasons. McKenna rushed in earlier last year to release a week’s worth, a shirtstorm, of press releases about his being tough on illegal foreclosures. After that week passed by, all we heard was *crickets* until this recent ditty from the Seattle PI >>>
“Republican gubernatorial candidate and state Attorney General Rob McKenna has returned nearly $14,000 in donations from people tied to a firm that helps mediate foreclosures.
McKenna’s office had put the company, Northwest Trustee Services, Inc., on notice in 2010 that they could face investigation, but his campaign accepted donations from the donors on Sept. 30. He has since returned the money, according to an amended financial disclosure form that was submitted on Feb. 9, the same day McKenna announced Washington state’s share of a $25 billion settlement with the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders over foreclosure abuses.
McKenna campaign spokesman Charles McCray said that the timing was a coincidence…”
Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/.....z1mgWGOkKr
“We should concentrate our efforts on making sure no Republican ever runs our state government again.”
The Republicans and Democrats are different sides to the same coin. It really doesn’t matter.