[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]
|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 348 electoral votes||Mean of 190 electoral votes|
A handful of new state head-to-head polls, including two from swing states, have come out since the previous analysis. Obama leads in all five:
California has Obama crushing Romney by +29%. Massachusetts, a state Romney once governed, has Obama up by nearly as much (+21%). New York supports Obama over Romney by +17%.
In Ohio, the new poll gives Obama a slender +2% lead over Romney. Obama has led in all four Ohio polls taken this year. The polling suggests to me that Ohio may not be so much a swing state this year….
We now have our first February poll out of Florida. This one gives Obama a thin +3% lead over Romney. Obama leads in the two most recent Florida polls; Romney led in the two January polls before that.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 344 to 194 electoral votes and a probability of winning of 99.8%.
With the new polls included, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,989 times and Romney wins 11 times. If an election was held now, we expect Obama to win with nearly 100% probability. Obama’s average electoral vote total climbed by +4 to 348, whereas Romney’s average is now 190 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 357 electoral votes with a 3.64% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 3.19% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 3.08% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 2.99% probability
- 348 electoral votes with a 2.78% probability
- 367 electoral votes with a 2.72% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 2.40% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.40% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 2.38% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 347.9 (20.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 190.1 (20.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 348 (308, 394)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 190 (144, 230)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|4||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.