Poll Analysis: Newt gains a bit but still loses 100% to Obama

ObamaGingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 397 electoral votesMean of 141 electoral votes

It has been over two weeks since the previous analysis of the Obama–Gingrich match-up using state head-to-head polls. This is largely because Newt Gingrich’s second lead over Mitt Romney in the national G.O.P. primary polls was rather transient—even more fleeting than his late-2011 lead.

As the life is sucked out of the Gingrich campaign, these analyses become less relevant. A telltale sign of a dying campaign is when pollsters no longer include a candidate in its state head-to-head polls. That has begun to happen for Gingrich. Rasmussen polled Romeny and Santorum, but not Gingrich, in its most recent Florida, New Mexico, and California polls. A Civitas poll in North Carolina and a WBUR poll in Massachusetts did the same. A recent Elway poll in Washington only reported results for Romney.

So, for President’s day, here is an analysis for Gingrich. This may be Newt’s last. I’ll also post an update for Romney, and post Santorum’s very first analysis.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama with 100% probability of beating Gingrich, and leading by (on average) 421 to 117 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins 100,000 times (i.e. Obama has 100% probability of beating Gingrich in an election held now). Obama receives (on average) 397 to Gingrich’s 141 electoral votes.

That newt gains in average electoral votes while losing steam in the primary is because polling is so infrequent at this point. We are now seeing the “fruits” of Gingrich’s surge two months ago.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 403 electoral votes with a 14.82% probability
  • 404 electoral votes with a 12.09% probability
  • 395 electoral votes with a 7.99% probability
  • 396 electoral votes with a 6.35% probability
  • 397 electoral votes with a 5.17% probability
  • 394 electoral votes with a 5.03% probability
  • 389 electoral votes with a 4.35% probability
  • 398 electoral votes with a 4.30% probability
  • 388 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
  • 402 electoral votes with a 3.17% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 397.4 (11.4)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 140.6 (11.4)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 397 (375, 425)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 141 (113, 163)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama262
Strong Obama101363
Leans Obama4040403
Weak Obama111404
Weak Gingrich000134
Leans Gingrich00134
Strong Gingrich70134
Safe Gingrich64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaGingrich
48VotespollsVotesObamaGingrich% wins% wins
AL90(0)(100)
AK30(0)(100)
AZ111*443 56.2 43.8 96.6 3.4
AR60*(0)(100)
CA5522319 69.2 30.8100.0 0.0
CO91*729 54.3 45.7 94.8 5.2
CT71455 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL2945042 56.2 43.8100.0 0.0
GA1611071 46.9 53.1 7.6 92.4
HI41*517 70.4 29.6100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201528 65.9 34.1100.0 0.0
IN110(0)(100)
IA61704 58.0 42.0 99.8 0.2
KS61*431 52.7 47.3 78.2 21.8
KY81*546 51.6 48.4 70.9 29.1
LA80*(0)(100)
ME41*606 61.1 38.9100.0 0.0
MD100*(100)(0)
MA112855 75.4 24.6100.0 0.0
MI1621038 59.7 40.3100.0 0.0
MN1021593 58.3 41.7100.0 0.0
MS61*732 41.3 58.7 0.1 99.9
MO101529 53.9 46.1 89.8 10.2
MT31*1494 45.6 54.4 0.9 99.1
NE21*658 46.0 54.0 7.4 92.6
NE111*269 53.9 46.1 81.4 18.6
NE211*204 50.0 50.0 50.5 49.5
NE311*188 31.9 68.1 0.0100.0
NV61*496 57.3 42.7 98.9 1.1
NH41470 63.2 36.8100.0 0.0
NJ141*666 66.7 33.3100.0 0.0
NM51*475 58.9 41.1 99.7 0.3
NY2921844 67.9 32.1100.0 0.0
NC151999 52.7 47.3 88.2 11.8
ND30(0)(100)
OH1832392 56.2 43.8100.0 0.0
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*467 57.8 42.2 99.1 0.9
PA201*436 57.8 42.2 98.9 1.1
RI41*473 68.9 31.1100.0 0.0
SC91*1854 52.3 47.7 91.6 8.4
SD31*484 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
TN111*450 59.6 40.4 99.9 0.1
TX381460 43.7 56.3 2.9 97.1
UT60(0)(100)
VT30(100)(0)
VA1311358 58.0 42.0100.0 0.0
WA121513 62.0 38.0100.0 0.0
WV51*811 41.4 58.6 0.0100.0
WI101*1053 57.7 42.3100.0 0.0
WY30*(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    One hundred fifty years ago, our nation fought a bloody civil war to keep some states from leaving the Union. Things have changed. Now it’s time to kick some state out of the Union! Any state that votes for Gingrich should be gone! Except we’ll annex the coast of Georgia to Florida, so Florida has a land bridge to the rest of the United States. We’ll give the northern plains states back to the Indians, and deport all the Republicans to Dixie. Indiana and West Virginia will be internment camps.

  2. 3

    spews:

    Actually, it’s about time that we, Oregon and Northern California just bail out of this whole mess and found Ecotopia..

  3. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    I’m not sure whether this is rightwing humor, or is serious. The blurb that goes with it says:

    “Join President Barack Obama as he sings the Soviet national Anthem. Introduction by Leonid Brezhnev. Produced and conceived by Evangelist Frank Eugene Cruse at Tabby Road Studios, Burbank. Edited by Carolyn Cruse.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related

  4. 5

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    A quick internet search indicates this “Rev.” Frank Eugene Cruse guy is a real dyed-in-the-wool nutjob hater.

  5. 7

    spews:

    How long ago did that crackpot right wing billionaire in Las Vegas give Newtie 10 million???

    A fool and his money are quickly separated.

  6. 8

    spews:

    Heh. And then there’s Frosty Freeze and little Rickie Ayatollah Sanctimonious…

    Oh my… You just gotta laugh.