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Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Gingrich

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[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O G diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 52 35 O+17
FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 41 50 G+9
GA SurveyUSA 01-Feb 02-Feb 1144 3.0 43.9 49.7 G+5.9
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 49 42 O+7
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 51 39 O+12

The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.

In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.

Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.

The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.

Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 421 electoral votes Mean of 117 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 441 electoral votes with a 9.90% probability
  • 442 electoral votes with a 8.10% probability
  • 433 electoral votes with a 5.31% probability
  • 403 electoral votes with a 5.06% probability
  • 404 electoral votes with a 4.66% probability
  • 434 electoral votes with a 4.04% probability
  • 435 electoral votes with a 3.42% probability
  • 432 electoral votes with a 2.94% probability
  • 395 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
  • 427 electoral votes with a 2.62% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 420.6 (20.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 117.4 (20.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 427 (381, 449)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 111 (89, 157)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 213
Strong Obama 160 373
Leans Obama 68 68 441
Weak Obama 0 0 0 441
Weak Gingrich 1 1 1 97
Leans Gingrich 0 0 96
Strong Gingrich 32 96
Safe Gingrich 64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Gingrich
4 8 Votes polls Votes Obama Gingrich % wins % wins
AL 9 0 (0) (100)
AK 3 0 (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 443 56.2 43.8 96.8 3.2
AR 6 0 (0) (100)
CA 55 1* 900 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
CO 9 1* 729 54.3 45.7 95.4 4.6
CT 7 1* 545 58.7 41.3 99.8 0.2
DE 3 0* (100) (0)
DC 3 0* (100) (0)
FL 29 4 5042 56.2 43.8 100.0 0.0
GA 16 1 1071 46.9 53.1 7.6 92.4
HI 4 1* 517 70.4 29.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 0* (100) (0)
IN 11 0* (0) (100)
IA 6 1* 1262 55.9 44.1 99.8 0.2
KS 6 1* 431 52.7 47.3 78.1 21.9
KY 8 1* 546 51.6 48.4 70.9 29.1
LA 8 0* (0) (100)
ME 4 1* 606 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
MD 10 0* (100) (0)
MA 11 1* 704 65.2 34.8 100.0 0.0
MI 16 1 534 57.3 42.7 99.3 0.7
MN 10 1 1137 55.4 44.6 99.6 0.4
MS 6 1* 732 41.3 58.7 0.0 100.0
MO 10 1 529 53.9 46.1 90.1 9.9
MT 3 1* 1494 45.6 54.4 0.9 99.1
NE 2 1* 658 46.0 54.0 7.9 92.1
NE1 1 1* 269 53.9 46.1 82.3 17.7
NE2 1 1* 204 50.0 50.0 49.9 50.1
NE3 1 1* 188 31.9 68.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 1* 496 57.3 42.7 98.7 1.3
NH 4 1* 982 55.7 44.3 99.5 0.5
NJ 14 1* 666 66.7 33.3 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1* 475 58.9 41.1 99.7 0.3
NY 29 1 521 67.0 33.0 100.0 0.0
NC 15 1 717 53.3 46.7 89.1 10.9
ND 3 0 (0) (100)
OH 18 2 2187 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
OK 7 0 (0) (100)
OR 7 1* 467 57.8 42.2 99.2 0.8
PA 20 1 436 57.8 42.2 99.1 0.9
RI 4 1* 473 68.9 31.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 1* 1854 52.3 47.7 91.4 8.6
SD 3 1* 484 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
TN 11 1* 450 59.6 40.4 99.8 0.2
TX 38 1 644 51.1 48.9 64.4 35.6
UT 6 0 (0) (100)
VT 3 0 (100) (0)
VA 13 1 545 56.3 43.7 98.3 1.7
WA 12 1* 506 60.3 39.7 99.9 0.1
WV 5 1* 811 41.4 58.6 0.0 100.0
WI 10 1* 1053 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
WY 3 0* (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Please Lord, let Newt be their nominee. I usually don’t ask for things, but just this once? Pretty please?

  2. 2

    The Dirty Thirty

    U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund and Citizens For Tax Justice have identified America’s worst corporations for (a) evading taxes, and (b) using shareholders’ money to lobby Congress.

    #1 on the list is Pepco, a Washington D.C. utility that also has earned the dubious distinction of being America’s most hated company.

    #2 is General Electric, which pays no U.S. taxes, reaps billions in tax subsidies, and spends tens of millions on lobbyists.

    #3 is Paccar, and #4 is Portland Gas & Electric; Boeing is also on the list.

    http://www.uspirg.org/sites/pi.....xation.pdf

    Full Disclosure: Roger Rabbit owns shares of General Electric, and has lost money on them, which serves him right!

  4. 4

    I have a question about your NE results. I assume the district results are done independently of the state results. So would it be possible for one candidate to win a simulation of all of the districts but lose the state?

  5. 5

    Carl,
    If all future polls in the state provide CD breakdowns of the results, then no.

    If not, I suppose it could, because the districts would be based on one or more old polls and the state based on the new poll. With any luck, I won’t have to deal with the situation.

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