Obama versus Gingrich using polls from 03-Jan-12 to 03-Feb-12

Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 96.8% wins (96,779 wins ), Gingrich: 3.2% wins (3,221 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Rocky Mountain	05-Jan-12	09-Jan-12	553	4.3	45.0	35.0	O+10.0

Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Field Poll	15-Nov-11	27-Nov-11	1000	3.1	55.0	35.0	O+20.0

Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 95.4% wins (95,379 wins ), Gingrich: 4.6% wins (4,621 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	01-Dec-11	04-Dec-11	793	3.5	50.0	42.0	O+8.0

Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,782 wins ), Gingrich: 0.2% wins (218 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	22-Sep-11	25-Sep-11	592	4.0	54.0	38.0	O+16.0

Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Marist	25-Jan-12	27-Jan-12	2795	1.9	52.0	35.0	O+17.0
Mason-Dixon	24-Jan-12	26-Jan-12	800	3.5	41.0	50.0	G+9.0
Suffolk	22-Jan-12	24-Jan-12	600	4.0	48.7	40.0	O+8.7
Quinnipiac	19-Jan-12	23-Jan-12	1518	2.5	50.0	39.0	O+11.0

Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.6% wins (7,648 wins ), Gingrich: 92.4% wins (92,352 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
SurveyUSA	01-Feb-12	02-Feb-12	1144	3.0	43.9	49.7	G+5.9

Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	13-Oct-11	16-Oct-11	568	4.1	64.0	27.0	O+37.0

Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,847 wins ), Gingrich: 0.2% wins (153 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Marist	27-Nov-11	29-Nov-11	1503	2.5	47.0	37.0	O+10.0

Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 78.1% wins (78,076 wins ), Gingrich: 21.9% wins (21,924 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
SurveyUSA	18-Nov-11	22-Nov-11	510	4.4	44.5	40.0	O+4.5

Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 70.9% wins (70,851 wins ), Gingrich: 29.1% wins (29,149 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	25-Aug-11	28-Aug-11	600	4.0	47.0	44.0	O+3.0

Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

4 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner. No district-level polls have been released to date.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,984 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (16 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	28-Oct-11	31-Oct-11	673	3.8	55.0	35.0	O+20.0

Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	16-Sep-11	18-Sep-11	791	3.5	58.0	31.0	O+27.0

Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.3% wins (99,289 wins ), Gingrich: 0.7% wins (711 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
EPIC/MRA	21-Jan-12	25-Jan-12	600	4.0	51.0	38.0	O+13.0

Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.6% wins (99,553 wins ), Gingrich: 0.4% wins (447 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	21-Jan-12	22-Jan-12	1236	2.8	51.0	41.0	O+10.0

Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (41 wins ), Gingrich: 100.0% wins (99,959 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	04-Nov-11	06-Nov-11	796	3.5	38.0	54.0	G+16.0

Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 90.1% wins (90,081 wins ), Gingrich: 9.9% wins (9,919 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	27-Jan-12	29-Jan-12	582	4.1	49.0	42.0	O+7.0

Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.9% wins (891 wins ), Gingrich: 99.1% wins (99,109 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	28-Nov-11	30-Nov-11	1625	2.4	42.0	50.0	G+8.0

Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 7.9% wins (7,876 wins ), Gingrich: 92.1% wins (92,124 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	30-Sep-11	02-Oct-11	739	3.6	41.0	48.0	G+7.0

Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.09% Obama, 44.34% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 82.3% wins (82,336 wins ), Gingrich: 17.7% wins (17,664 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	30-Sep-11	02-Oct-11	303	---	48.0	41.0	O+7.0

Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 48.76% Obama, 49.96% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 49.9% wins (49,883 wins ), Gingrich: 50.1% wins (50,117 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	30-Sep-11	02-Oct-11	222	---	46.0	46.0	0.0

Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Gingrich: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	30-Sep-11	02-Oct-11	214	---	28.0	60.0	G+32.0

Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.7% wins (98,703 wins ), Gingrich: 1.3% wins (1,297 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
U Nevada	12-Dec-11	20-Dec-11	600	4.0	47.3	35.4	O+11.9

New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.5% wins (99,501 wins ), Gingrich: 0.5% wins (499 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Marist	28-Nov-11	30-Nov-11	1116	2.9	49.0	39.0	O+10.0

New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Eagleton-Rutgers	15-Dec-11	18-Dec-11	823	3.4	54.0	27.0	O+27.0

New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.7% wins (99,740 wins ), Gingrich: 0.3% wins (260 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	10-Dec-11	12-Dec-11	500	4.4	56.0	39.0	O+17.0

New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Marist	18-Jan-12	19-Jan-12	554	4.5	63.0	31.0	O+32.0

North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 89.1% wins (89,068 wins ), Gingrich: 10.9% wins (10,932 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	05-Jan-12	08-Jan-12	780	3.5	49.0	43.0	O+6.0

North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	28-Jan-12	29-Jan-12	820	3.4	51.0	39.0	O+12.0
Quinnipiac	09-Jan-12	16-Jan-12	1610	2.4	52.0	38.0	O+14.0

Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.2% wins (99,154 wins ), Gingrich: 0.8% wins (846 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
SurveyUSA	18-Nov-11	21-Nov-11	528	4.4	51.1	37.3	O+13.8

Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.1% wins (99,058 wins ), Gingrich: 0.9% wins (942 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Keystone Poll	17-Jan-12	22-Jan-12	614	4.0	41.0	30.0	O+11.0

Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	16-Feb-11	22-Feb-11	544	4.2	60.0	27.0	O+33.0

South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 91.4% wins (91,430 wins ), Gingrich: 8.6% wins (8,570 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Marist	04-Dec-11	06-Dec-11	2107	2.1	46.0	42.0	O+4.0

South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (8 wins ), Gingrich: 100.0% wins (99,992 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Neilson Bothers	06-Dec-11	09-Dec-11	590	4.0	31.0	51.0	G+20.0

Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,778 wins ), Gingrich: 0.2% wins (222 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Vanderbilt Poll	03-Jun-11	08-Jun-11	700	3.7	38.3	26.0	O+12.3

Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 64.4% wins (64,409 wins ), Gingrich: 35.6% wins (35,591 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	12-Jan-12	15-Jan-12	700	3.7	47.0	45.0	O+2.0

Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.

Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.3% wins (98,260 wins ), Gingrich: 1.7% wins (1,740 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
Mason-Dixon	16-Jan-12	18-Jan-12	626	3.9	49.0	38.0	O+11.0

Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,950 wins ), Gingrich: 0.1% wins (50 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
SurveyUSA	21-Nov-11	23-Nov-11	549	4.3	55.6	36.6	O+18.9

West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (16 wins ), Gingrich: 100.0% wins (99,984 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	30-Sep-11	02-Oct-11	932	3.2	36.0	51.0	G+15.0

Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Gingrich: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Gingrich	Diff
PPP	20-Oct-11	23-Oct-11	1170	2.9	52.0	38.0	O+14.0

Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Gingrich assumed to win all elections.