Poll Analysis: Newt gains a bit but still loses 100% to Obama

Obama	Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 397 electoral votes	Mean of 141 electoral votes

It has been over two weeks since the previous analysis of the Obama–Gingrich match-up using state head-to-head polls. This is largely because Newt Gingrich’s second lead over Mitt Romney in the national G.O.P. primary polls was rather transient—even more fleeting than his late-2011 lead.

As the life is sucked out of the Gingrich campaign, these analyses become less relevant. A telltale sign of a dying campaign is when pollsters no longer include a candidate in its state head-to-head polls. That has begun to happen for Gingrich. Rasmussen polled Romeny and Santorum, but not Gingrich, in its most recent Florida, New Mexico, and California polls. A Civitas poll in North Carolina and a WBUR poll in Massachusetts did the same. A recent Elway poll in Washington only reported results for Romney.

So, for President’s day, here is an analysis for Gingrich. This may be Newt’s last. I’ll also post an update for Romney, and post Santorum’s very first analysis.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama with 100% probability of beating Gingrich, and leading by (on average) 421 to 117 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins 100,000 times (i.e. Obama has 100% probability of beating Gingrich in an election held now). Obama receives (on average) 397 to Gingrich’s 141 electoral votes.

That newt gains in average electoral votes while losing steam in the primary is because polling is so infrequent at this point. We are now seeing the “fruits” of Gingrich’s surge two months ago.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

• 403 electoral votes with a 14.82% probability
• 404 electoral votes with a 12.09% probability
• 395 electoral votes with a 7.99% probability
• 396 electoral votes with a 6.35% probability
• 397 electoral votes with a 5.17% probability
• 394 electoral votes with a 5.03% probability
• 389 electoral votes with a 4.35% probability
• 398 electoral votes with a 4.30% probability
• 388 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
• 402 electoral votes with a 3.17% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

• Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
• Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 397.4 (11.4)
• Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 140.6 (11.4)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 397 (375, 425)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 141 (113, 163)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Obama	262
Strong Obama	101	363
Leans Obama	40	40	403
Weak Obama	1	1	1	404
Weak Gingrich	0	0	0	134
Leans Gingrich	0	0	134
Strong Gingrich	70	134
Safe Gingrich	64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

	0	0	EC	#	Total	%	%	Obama	Gingrich
	4	8	Votes	polls	Votes	Obama	Gingrich	% wins	% wins
AL			9	0				(0)	(100)
AK			3	0				(0)	(100)
AZ			11	1*	443	56.2	43.8	96.6	3.4
AR			6	0*				(0)	(100)
CA			55	2	2319	69.2	30.8	100.0	0.0
CO			9	1*	729	54.3	45.7	94.8	5.2
CT			7	1	455	61.5	38.5	100.0	0.0
DE			3	0				(100)	(0)
DC			3	0				(100)	(0)
FL			29	4	5042	56.2	43.8	100.0	0.0
GA			16	1	1071	46.9	53.1	7.6	92.4
HI			4	1*	517	70.4	29.6	100.0	0.0
ID			4	0*				(0)	(100)
IL			20	1	528	65.9	34.1	100.0	0.0
IN			11	0				(0)	(100)
IA			6	1	704	58.0	42.0	99.8	0.2
KS			6	1*	431	52.7	47.3	78.2	21.8
KY			8	1*	546	51.6	48.4	70.9	29.1
LA			8	0*				(0)	(100)
ME			4	1*	606	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
MD			10	0*				(100)	(0)
MA			11	2	855	75.4	24.6	100.0	0.0
MI			16	2	1038	59.7	40.3	100.0	0.0
MN			10	2	1593	58.3	41.7	100.0	0.0
MS			6	1*	732	41.3	58.7	0.1	99.9
MO			10	1	529	53.9	46.1	89.8	10.2
MT			3	1*	1494	45.6	54.4	0.9	99.1
NE			2	1*	658	46.0	54.0	7.4	92.6
NE1			1	1*	269	53.9	46.1	81.4	18.6
NE2			1	1*	204	50.0	50.0	50.5	49.5
NE3			1	1*	188	31.9	68.1	0.0	100.0
NV			6	1*	496	57.3	42.7	98.9	1.1
NH			4	1	470	63.2	36.8	100.0	0.0
NJ			14	1*	666	66.7	33.3	100.0	0.0
NM			5	1*	475	58.9	41.1	99.7	0.3
NY			29	2	1844	67.9	32.1	100.0	0.0
NC			15	1	999	52.7	47.3	88.2	11.8
ND			3	0				(0)	(100)
OH			18	3	2392	56.2	43.8	100.0	0.0
OK			7	0				(0)	(100)
OR			7	1*	467	57.8	42.2	99.1	0.9
PA			20	1*	436	57.8	42.2	98.9	1.1
RI			4	1*	473	68.9	31.1	100.0	0.0
SC			9	1*	1854	52.3	47.7	91.6	8.4
SD			3	1*	484	37.8	62.2	0.0	100.0
TN			11	1*	450	59.6	40.4	99.9	0.1
TX			38	1	460	43.7	56.3	2.9	97.1
UT			6	0				(0)	(100)
VT			3	0				(100)	(0)
VA			13	1	1358	58.0	42.0	100.0	0.0
WA			12	1	513	62.0	38.0	100.0	0.0
WV			5	1*	811	41.4	58.6	0.0	100.0
WI			10	1*	1053	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WY			3	0*				(0)	(100)

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.