Poll Analysis: Obama v. Gingrich

UPDATE: An analysis using newer polls can be found here.

As promised, here is my first analysis of a 2012 match-up, using state head-to-head polls, between Pres. Barack Obama (D) and former congressman Newt Gingrich (R).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama an average of 416 electoral votes to Gingrich’s 122. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win an election held now.

Now you can see why the Republican Establishment cannot let Newt get the nomination. He loses badly against Obama.

Obama	Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 416 electoral votes	Mean of 122 electoral votes

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

• 441 electoral votes with a 6.16% probability
• 432 electoral votes with a 4.92% probability
• 442 electoral votes with a 4.59% probability
• 431 electoral votes with a 4.56% probability
• 403 electoral votes with a 3.56% probability
• 433 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
• 434 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
• 394 electoral votes with a 2.85% probability
• 404 electoral votes with a 2.82% probability
• 393 electoral votes with a 2.82% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

• Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
• Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 415.6 (21.2)
• Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 122.4 (21.2)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 422 (375, 443)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 116 (95, 163)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Obama	178
Strong Obama	172	350
Leans Obama	81	81	431
Weak Obama	11	11	11	442
Weak Gingrich	0	0	0	96
Leans Gingrich	0	0	96
Strong Gingrich	32	96
Safe Gingrich	64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

	0	0	EC	#	Total	%	%	Obama	Gingrich
	4	8	Votes	polls	Votes	Obama	Gingrich	% wins	% wins
AL			9	0				(0)	(100)
AK			3	0				(0)	(100)
AZ			11	1	443	56.2	43.8	97.0	3.0
AR			6	0				(0)	(100)
CA			55	1*	900	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
CO			9	1*	729	54.3	45.7	95.4	4.6
CT			7	1*	545	58.7	41.3	99.8	0.2
DE			3	0*				(100)	(0)
DC			3	0*				(100)	(0)
FL			29	2	1883	55.8	44.2	100.0	0.0
GA			16	1*	568	45.1	54.9	4.9	95.1
HI			4	1*	517	70.4	29.6	100.0	0.0
ID			4	0*				(0)	(100)
IL			20	0*				(100)	(0)
IN			11	0*				(0)	(100)
IA			6	1*	1262	55.9	44.1	99.8	0.2
KS			6	1*	431	52.7	47.3	78.9	21.1
KY			8	1*	546	51.6	48.4	70.8	29.2
LA			8	0*				(0)	(100)
ME			4	1*	606	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
MD			10	0*				(100)	(0)
MA			11	1*	704	65.2	34.8	100.0	0.0
MI			16	1	534	57.3	42.7	99.2	0.8
MN			10	1	1137	55.4	44.6	99.5	0.5
MS			6	1*	732	41.3	58.7	0.0	100.0
MO			10	1*	588	50.5	49.5	56.8	43.2
MT			3	1*	1494	45.6	54.4	0.8	99.2
NE			2	1*	658	46.0	54.0	7.5	92.5
NE1			1	1*	269	53.9	46.1	81.6	18.4
NE2			1	1*	204	50.0	50.0	50.6	49.4
NE3			1	1*	188	31.9	68.1	0.0	100.0
NV			6	1*	496	57.3	42.7	98.8	1.2
NH			4	1*	982	55.7	44.3	99.4	0.6
NJ			14	1*	666	66.7	33.3	100.0	0.0
NM			5	1*	475	58.9	41.1	99.8	0.2
NY			29	1	521	67.0	33.0	100.0	0.0
NC			15	1	717	53.3	46.7	89.3	10.7
ND			3	0				(0)	(100)
OH			18	1	1449	57.8	42.2	100.0	0.0
OK			7	0				(0)	(100)
OR			7	1*	467	57.8	42.2	99.2	0.8
PA			20	1	436	57.8	42.2	98.9	1.1
RI			4	1*	473	68.9	31.1	100.0	0.0
SC			9	1*	1854	52.3	47.7	91.4	8.6
SD			3	1*	484	37.8	62.2	0.0	100.0
TN			11	1*	450	59.6	40.4	99.8	0.2
TX			38	1	644	51.1	48.9	64.2	35.8
UT			6	0				(0)	(100)
VT			3	0				(100)	(0)
VA			13	1*	987	52.9	47.1	89.5	10.5
WA			12	1*	506	60.3	39.7	100.0	0.0
WV			5	1*	811	41.4	58.6	0.0	100.0
WI			10	1*	1053	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WY			3	0*				(0)	(100)

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.