Poll Analysis: Obama v. Gingrich

UPDATE: An analysis using newer polls can be found here.

As promised, here is my first analysis of a 2012 match-up, using state head-to-head polls, between Pres. Barack Obama (D) and former congressman Newt Gingrich (R).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama an average of 416 electoral votes to Gingrich’s 122. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win an election held now.

Now you can see why the Republican Establishment cannot let Newt get the nomination. He loses badly against Obama.

ObamaGingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 416 electoral votesMean of 122 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 441 electoral votes with a 6.16% probability
  • 432 electoral votes with a 4.92% probability
  • 442 electoral votes with a 4.59% probability
  • 431 electoral votes with a 4.56% probability
  • 403 electoral votes with a 3.56% probability
  • 433 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
  • 434 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
  • 394 electoral votes with a 2.85% probability
  • 404 electoral votes with a 2.82% probability
  • 393 electoral votes with a 2.82% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 415.6 (21.2)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 122.4 (21.2)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 422 (375, 443)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 116 (95, 163)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama178
Strong Obama172350
Leans Obama8181431
Weak Obama111111442
Weak Gingrich00096
Leans Gingrich0096
Strong Gingrich3296
Safe Gingrich64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaGingrich
48VotespollsVotesObamaGingrich% wins% wins
AL90(0)(100)
AK30(0)(100)
AZ111443 56.2 43.8 97.0 3.0
AR60(0)(100)
CA551*900 61.1 38.9100.0 0.0
CO91*729 54.3 45.7 95.4 4.6
CT71*545 58.7 41.3 99.8 0.2
DE30*(100)(0)
DC30*(100)(0)
FL2921883 55.8 44.2100.0 0.0
GA161*568 45.1 54.9 4.9 95.1
HI41*517 70.4 29.6100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL200*(100)(0)
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*1262 55.9 44.1 99.8 0.2
KS61*431 52.7 47.3 78.9 21.1
KY81*546 51.6 48.4 70.8 29.2
LA80*(0)(100)
ME41*606 61.1 38.9100.0 0.0
MD100*(100)(0)
MA111*704 65.2 34.8100.0 0.0
MI161534 57.3 42.7 99.2 0.8
MN1011137 55.4 44.6 99.5 0.5
MS61*732 41.3 58.7 0.0100.0
MO101*588 50.5 49.5 56.8 43.2
MT31*1494 45.6 54.4 0.8 99.2
NE21*658 46.0 54.0 7.5 92.5
NE111*269 53.9 46.1 81.6 18.4
NE211*204 50.0 50.0 50.6 49.4
NE311*188 31.9 68.1 0.0100.0
NV61*496 57.3 42.7 98.8 1.2
NH41*982 55.7 44.3 99.4 0.6
NJ141*666 66.7 33.3100.0 0.0
NM51*475 58.9 41.1 99.8 0.2
NY291521 67.0 33.0100.0 0.0
NC151717 53.3 46.7 89.3 10.7
ND30(0)(100)
OH1811449 57.8 42.2100.0 0.0
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*467 57.8 42.2 99.2 0.8
PA201436 57.8 42.2 98.9 1.1
RI41*473 68.9 31.1100.0 0.0
SC91*1854 52.3 47.7 91.4 8.6
SD31*484 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
TN111*450 59.6 40.4 99.8 0.2
TX381644 51.1 48.9 64.2 35.8
UT60(0)(100)
VT30(100)(0)
VA131*987 52.9 47.1 89.5 10.5
WA121*506 60.3 39.7100.0 0.0
WV51*811 41.4 58.6 0.0100.0
WI101*1053 57.7 42.3100.0 0.0
WY30*(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 3

    2cents spews:

    That’s weird that Romney barely loses South Carolina to Obama and Gingrich solidly loses South Carolina.

  2. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Newt is kicking Romney’s ass in the primaries and the GOP establishment are beside themselves! You gotta wonder what the hell is wrong with GOP voters. Any state that votes red in an Obama-Gingrich matchup should be kicked out of the Union, even if it takes a civil war to make them leave.*

    * Just kidding! This is an old Confederate joke.