Poll Analysis: Romney gains slightly on Obama

ObamaRomney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votesMean of 207 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
CARasmussen08-Feb16-Feb5004.55735O+22
IAIowa Poll12-Feb15-Feb8003.54446R+2
MASuffolk11-Feb15-Feb50053.039.3O+13.7
MIPPP10-Feb12-Feb5604.15438O+16
NMRasmussen14-Feb14-Feb5004.55536O+19
OHFox News11-Feb13-Feb5054.53844R+6
TXU Texas08-Feb15-Feb5294.33649R+13
WAElway07-Feb09-Feb4055.04938O+11
WASurveyUSA13-Feb15-Feb5724.249.939.2O+10.7

The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.

The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12New Mexico

Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12Iowa

The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 332 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
  • 331 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability
  • 337 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
  • 322 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
  • 327 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 316 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 331.2 (19.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 206.8 (19.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 332 (292, 368)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 206 (170, 246)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama148
Strong Obama112260
Leans Obama5555315
Weak Obama262626341
Weak Romney000197
Leans Romney4949197
Strong Romney84148
Safe Romney64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
48VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111*443 46.3 53.7 13.2 86.8
AR61*1744 40.4 59.6 0.0100.0
CA5522360 65.2 34.8100.0 0.0
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 66.0 34.0
CT71435 57.5 42.5 98.3 1.7
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL2955607 51.6 48.4 95.6 4.4
GA1611072 45.5 54.5 2.1 97.9
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN110(0)(100)
IA61720 48.9 51.1 33.2 66.8
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 6.8 93.2
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 7.1 92.9
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME41*586 56.3 43.7 98.4 1.6
MD100*(100)(0)
MA112910 59.6 40.4100.0 0.0
MI1621043 56.6 43.4 99.8 0.2
MN1021598 56.0 44.0100.0 0.0
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101524 50.0 50.0 50.8 49.2
MT31*356 40.4 59.6 0.6 99.4
NE21*658 42.7 57.3 0.4 99.6
NE111*269 50.6 49.4 55.0 45.0
NE211*204 45.6 54.4 19.2 80.8
NE311*185 29.2 70.8 0.0100.0
NV61*513 53.4 46.6 87.1 12.9
NH41446 55.6 44.4 95.6 4.4
NJ141*1256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM51455 60.4 39.6100.0 0.0
NY2921831 62.8 37.2100.0 0.0
NC151978 50.5 49.5 59.6 40.4
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.3 99.7
OH1842869 51.3 48.7 85.1 14.9
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*464 54.7 45.3 92.3 7.7
PA201440 48.9 51.1 36.9 63.1
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.9 0.1
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 84.6 15.4
SD31*454 37.7 62.3 0.0100.0
TN111*1139 47.5 52.5 11.1 88.9
TX381449 42.3 57.7 1.2 98.8
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*1085 61.4 38.6100.0 0.0
VA1311390 52.2 47.8 87.4 12.6
WA122861 56.1 43.9 99.3 0.7
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI101616 54.5 45.5 94.6 5.4
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    rhp6033 spews:

    Interesting that Fox News and U. of Texas weigh in with big wins projected for Romney. Fox News predicts a 6 point win for Romney in Ohio, and U. of Texas predicts a 13 point win for Romney in Texas. Everyone else predicts a small win for Romney in Iowa (2 points), or a very large win for Obama everywhere else. Even Rasumussen is predicting a 22 point win by Obama in California.

    The more you get to know Republican politicians, the less there is to like about them. And this primary donny-brook has done a pretty good job of cutting through the candidate’s media image and showing all the warts. Romney can’t campaign as a “successful businessman”. Newt can’t campaign as a champion of moral culture. Santoram hasn’t gotten past his own Google problem. And Ron Paul, while remaining ideologically consistent, can never win a general election on a “close Social Security” platform.