|99.9% probability of winning||0.1% probability of winning|
|Mean of 331 electoral votes||Mean of 207 electoral votes|
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.
Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:
The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.
The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:
Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:
The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.
With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 332 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 331.2 (19.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 206.8 (19.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 332 (292, 368)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 206 (170, 246)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|4||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.