by Darryl, 02/20/2012, 8:12 PM
Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Rasmussen 08-Feb 16-Feb 500 4.5 57 35 O+22
IA Iowa Poll 12-Feb 15-Feb 800 3.5 44 46 R+2
MA Suffolk 11-Feb 15-Feb 500 53.0 39.3 O+13.7
MI PPP 10-Feb 12-Feb 560 4.1 54 38 O+16
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 36 O+19
OH Fox News 11-Feb 13-Feb 505 4.5 38 44 R+6
TX U Texas 08-Feb 15-Feb 529 4.3 36 49 R+13
WA Elway 07-Feb 09-Feb 405 5.0 49 38 O+11
WA SurveyUSA 13-Feb 15-Feb 572 4.2 49.9 39.2 O+10.7

The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.

The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12New Mexico

Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12Iowa

The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 332 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
  • 331 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability
  • 337 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
  • 322 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
  • 327 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 316 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 331.2 (19.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 206.8 (19.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 332 (292, 368)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 206 (170, 246)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 148
Strong Obama 112 260
Leans Obama 55 55 315
Weak Obama 26 26 26 341
Weak Romney 0 0 0 197
Leans Romney 49 49 197
Strong Romney 84 148
Safe Romney 64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
4 8 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 754 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1* 443 46.3 53.7 13.2 86.8
AR 6 1* 1744 40.4 59.6 0.0 100.0
CA 55 2 2360 65.2 34.8 100.0 0.0
CO 9 1* 730 51.1 48.9 66.0 34.0
CT 7 1 435 57.5 42.5 98.3 1.7
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 0 (100) (0)
FL 29 5 5607 51.6 48.4 95.6 4.4
GA 16 1 1072 45.5 54.5 2.1 97.9
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1 546 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
IN 11 0 (0) (100)
IA 6 1 720 48.9 51.1 33.2 66.8
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 6.8 93.2
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 7.1 92.9
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME 4 1* 586 56.3 43.7 98.4 1.6
MD 10 0* (100) (0)
MA 11 2 910 59.6 40.4 100.0 0.0
MI 16 2 1043 56.6 43.4 99.8 0.2
MN 10 2 1598 56.0 44.0 100.0 0.0
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 1 524 50.0 50.0 50.8 49.2
MT 3 1* 356 40.4 59.6 0.6 99.4
NE 2 1* 658 42.7 57.3 0.4 99.6
NE1 1 1* 269 50.6 49.4 55.0 45.0
NE2 1 1* 204 45.6 54.4 19.2 80.8
NE3 1 1* 185 29.2 70.8 0.0 100.0
NV 6 1* 513 53.4 46.6 87.1 12.9
NH 4 1 446 55.6 44.4 95.6 4.4
NJ 14 1* 1256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM 5 1 455 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
NY 29 2 1831 62.8 37.2 100.0 0.0
NC 15 1 978 50.5 49.5 59.6 40.4
ND 3 1* 480 41.3 58.8 0.3 99.7
OH 18 4 2869 51.3 48.7 85.1 14.9
OK 7 0 (0) (100)
OR 7 1* 464 54.7 45.3 92.3 7.7
PA 20 1 440 48.9 51.1 36.9 63.1
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.9 0.1
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 84.6 15.4
SD 3 1* 454 37.7 62.3 0.0 100.0
TN 11 1* 1139 47.5 52.5 11.1 88.9
TX 38 1 449 42.3 57.7 1.2 98.8
UT 6 1* 688 33.0 67.0 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 1085 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
VA 13 1 1390 52.2 47.8 87.4 12.6
WA 12 2 861 56.1 43.9 99.3 0.7
WV 5 1* 811 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
WI 10 1 616 54.5 45.5 94.6 5.4
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

One Response to “Poll Analysis: Romney gains slightly on Obama”

1. rhp6033 spews:

Interesting that Fox News and U. of Texas weigh in with big wins projected for Romney. Fox News predicts a 6 point win for Romney in Ohio, and U. of Texas predicts a 13 point win for Romney in Texas. Everyone else predicts a small win for Romney in Iowa (2 points), or a very large win for Obama everywhere else. Even Rasumussen is predicting a 22 point win by Obama in California.

The more you get to know Republican politicians, the less there is to like about them. And this primary donny-brook has done a pretty good job of cutting through the candidate’s media image and showing all the warts. Romney can’t campaign as a “successful businessman”. Newt can’t campaign as a champion of moral culture. Santoram hasn’t gotten past his own Google problem. And Ron Paul, while remaining ideologically consistent, can never win a general election on a “close Social Security” platform.