HorsesAss.Org

Current and former State Republican Party chairs have two things to say about tomorrow’s G.O.P. caucus:

Here is current Chair Kirby Wilbur with Fox News:

For the first time in decades, Republican caucus-goers in Washington state may have a real say in who runs for president.

“We have always been the ugly sister who never gets invited to the dance,” Washington state Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said. “But this year we’re the princess, and we really like it.”

And former Chair Chris Vance on KUOW:

Vance explains the candidate who “wins” Washington will have won a non-binding straw poll of caucus-goers. […]

But Vance says the results of the straw poll have nothing to do with which candidate gets the most delegates. And even then, in Washington, delegates aren’t committed to a candidate until they go to the state convention.

“So there is no accurate way to know who has won any delegates from Washington state,” Vance says.

So…tomorrow’s caucus are either: (1) The first time in forever that Washington state actually counts, or (2) a largely meaningless beauty contest.

The truth is somewhere in between. Clearly, whoever wins the beauty contest, will get some inertia and a fundraising boost. A Romney win will help solidify the perception that Romney is inevitable. A Santorum win will throw the contest into chaos until next Tuesday, when everyone will forget us. And a Ron Paul win will make us the laughing stock of the nation for a bit.

Who will win? Several months ago, before there was any polling, I would have said that the G.O.P. sheeple would go for the establishment candidate. In 2008 it was John McCain, who won both the primary and the caucus.

The 2008 primary results were pretty “mainstream” looking with 49.5% going for McCain and 24.1% going to Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul squeaked out 7.7% of the vote.

The 2008 caucus results brought out the fringe side of the state G.O.P. (and some controversy): 25.9% for McCain, 23.5% for Huckabee, and 21.6% for Ron Paul. Now you understand why Paul is focusing on caucus states….

There have been three polls taken this year for the 2012 G.O.P. caucus contest.

A mid-January SurveyUSA poll found Mitt leading the pack with 26%. Second was Newt Gingrich at 22% with Santorum nipping at his heels with 19%. Ron Paul squeaked out 7%.

In mid-February, PPP released a poll that put Santorum on top with 37%, Gingrich second with 20% with Mitt nipping at his heels at 18%. Ron Paul squeaked out 9%.

What a turn-around!

But today PPP released a new poll showing Mitt back on top with 37% and Santorum nipping at his heels with 32%. Ron Paul has surged to 16%, and the smartest man in the world, Newt, tumbling to 13%.

In other words…nobody has any fucking idea what is going to happen tomorrow. The volatility in the polls could be real—pollsters happened to capture the fall of Newt as well as the rise and fall of Santorum and the fall and rise of Mitt over these three polls. Or it could be issues of identifying people who will be caucusing.

From my perspective, the uncertainty adds to the entertainment value.

The uncertainty also provides some incentive for trouble-making—you know, Democrats pretending to be Republicans and showing up to caucus. It’s legal, even if you leave the event with the taint stain of Santorum….

Here’s how you can participate on Saturday (I mean, you don’t want to miss out on the most important and influential Washington state beauty contest in your lifetime, now, do you?) Mitt Romney has a handy set of instructions to help you find your caucus location.

And don’t forget to stock up on popcorn for the post-caucus show. Entertainment is what you should expect from a “beauty contest.”

Lots of retiring politicians in the news the past two days. I’ll chalk it up to the economic rebound, but feel free to offer your own theory….

Rep. Norm Dicks (WA-6) just announced his retirement:

The 18-term representative, first elected in 1976, said he and his wife Suzie “have made the decision to change gears and enjoy life at a different pace.”
[…]

Dicks is the ranking member on the powerful Appropriations Committee, and would become the panel’s chairman if Democrats won control of the House. […]

“Norm Dicks is a true Washington state institution,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said in a statement. “But more than that, he is my mentor, my friend, my advisor, my teammate, and my brother. He is our state’s quarterback here in Congress, and I can’t imagine our delegation without him.

Yesterday we also learned of the retirements of state Rep. Mary Lou Dickerson (D-36) and state Rep. Phyllis Gutierrez-Kenney (D-46).

NORML, one of the oldest and most respected marijuana law reform organizations in the United States, has officially endorsed I-502. As expected, this has created another backlash from those within the reform community who think the bad parts of the bill outweigh any good that comes from having a statewide vote in favor of ending prohibition. In particular, the DUI provisions are what drive much of the opposition, and even though NORML expressed their opposition to its inclusion in the bill, they still support its passage.

My personal position isn’t too much different from NORML’s. I’m pained by the inclusion of the DUI provision, but I-502 is still likely to get my vote. But what’s been troubling to me is how much of the debate over the DUI provision seems to have very little scientific backing and how much of the “science” surrounding this topic appears to be contradictory or just pure nonsense.

To begin to wade through this debate, I want to post a video that illustrates how difficult all of this is to understand:

The video was taken during last year’s Cannabis Freedom March in May. It was during the signature gathering drive and Sensible Washington volunteer Mimi Meiwes was driving her RV around the state rallying support for the effort. Meiwes had driven the vehicle (dubbed the “Canna-bus”) up to Seattle from Kelso, and if you click ahead to 1:30 in the video, you’ll see her driving from Capital Hill to SoDo while being interviewed by the cameraman. I was actually a passenger in the vehicle at the time.

Meiwes is a medical marijuana patient (as she discusses in the video). She uses it throughout the day every day. However, as you can clearly see from the video, despite consuming marijuana that frequently, she’s not impaired at all as she navigates a gigantic RV through Seattle while being interviewed on camera. She continued to drive the Canna-bus across the state several times that spring, and despite using medical marijuana throughout that entire time, her driving ability was never impaired at any point.

I recognize that this is difficult for a lot of people to understand. There’s a strong desire to merely equate alcohol to marijuana in terms of drawing parallels, but the comparison doesn’t hold up. Even an alcoholic who consumes large amounts of booze all the time still gets drunk (even if their tolerance goes up). But individuals who consume large amount of marijuana (usually for medicinal reasons) stop feeling the typical intense psychoactive response that recreational users enjoy.

Taking an objective look at this, there are two main questions and neither one seems to have an easy answer:
– How much active THC does a person like Meiwes have in her system at any one time?
– How much do non-impaired drivers like Meiwes have to fear from a per se DUI?

I was intending only to write about the latter question in this post, but after reading this post from Russ Belville at the NORML blog, I want to start with the former question*.

Before reading Belville’s post, I’d been under the impression that folks who consume large amounts of marijuana will be well over the 5ng/ml active-THC DUI threshold even for many hours after last use. This was based upon what happened when Denver columnist William Breathes had his THC levels checked and discovered that even after 15 hours of abstinence, he still tested at a whopping 13.5ng/ml. But Belville points to a different study that shows something quite the opposite:

For comparison’s sake, Participant N is a 21-year-old obese African-American woman who admits to smoking pot starting at age 9. She admits to smoking a half-ounce per day and had done so that day. She didn’t even have detectable ng/mL when she checked in. Participant L, a man who’d smoked an ounce that day tested at only 0.4ng.

Obviously, something isn’t right here. For those who aren’t up on the measurements, an ounce of marijuana is a lot. A whole lot. Even when I was a 2-3 times a week marijuana user, it would take me about a year to use that much. So this study is saying that someone who smoked several hundred dollars worth of marijuana in a single day only tested at 0.4ng/ml, and another person who smoked half as much had no active-THC in their system at all.

What this study suggests (if it’s accurate) is one of two things. Either the existence of active-THC in one’s system really does fall to near-zero levels quickly after use – or someone has to smoke pounds of marijuana every day to be at 5ng/ml for several hours. Either way, this is clearly not compatible with the data point from Breathes in Denver. Something clearly isn’t correct and I have no way on knowing what it is.

If the study that Belville points to is accurate, though, then the concerns over the DUI provision are totally unwarranted. In fact, people would still be totally free to get baked and drive since most people consume far, far less than the remarkably prolific pot consumers they managed to find for this study. If a person can process an ounce of active-THC within a short period of time, they can easily process a gram or two faster than the officer can take you to the hospital for a blood draw.

But I obviously have my doubts about the accuracy of that study, and I’d love to get some feedback from the comments on what other studies have found. While a lot of people are merely interested in advocacy and propaganda as we approach this historic vote, I want to make sure we have the facts straight. If the DUI provision really does make drivers like Meiwes sitting ducks for the police to saddle with DUI’s, it certainly gives me pause.

[Read more…]

Is anyone going to caucus for president based on The Seattle Times’ endorsement? I don’t think so, and further, I think they realize it. Why else would they open their endorsement (bold mine):

THE 20th, and possibly last, debate among GOP presidential candidates is mercifully over. Washington’s Republican precinct caucuses on Saturday force a choice.

Hmmm. Ah, Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor has the most potential in a thin field to represent his party in head-to-head competition with Democratic President Barack Obama.

This is certainly no endorsement of Romney’s candidacy. We share Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna’s obvious ambivalence about making an early commitment.

First off, what does Rob McKenna have to do with anything? Seriously, what? They didn’t even introduce it as anything. They just — what — think everyone who reads their editorials follows Rob McKenna as closely as them? There was no reason to mention him whatever.

Second, congrats for putting some actual snark in the ed page. I mean it when I say it could use more that, even if this time they executed it poorly.

More to the point, I love the phrase “this is certainly no endorsement” in the middle of the endorsement. It’s not like anyone is forcing them to endorse. Literally nobody changed their mind because of what they read in the editorials this morning. Nobody.

– Suck it, Portland.

– And hopefully we’ll get a transportation revenue bill.

– a state capital gains tax would tap into the enormous profits generated by such exclusive investment clubs, generating roughly $700 million a year in new resources for investments in education, health care, and other core economic structures.

– Andrew Breitbart has died.

– And how is Carol doing at the fish stick factory?

– I would totally watch all of these horrible, horrible movies.

As some of you know, I’m planning to caucus with the Republicans for Fred Karger, by far the least objectionable. Pro choice, pro marriage equality, he’s actually not horrible on a lot of things. But he’s a solid Republican, and so in a general, I’d still prefer Obama to him.

But I don’t really expect him to win. Thus caucusing for Karger is more to send a message to the GOP that no, it doesn’t have to be that way. You can change. That while we can have reasonable disagreements about economic policy, they don’t need to demonize women and gay people.

Anyway, it’s somewhat impressive that Fred got well over 1000 votes in Michigan.

Looks like snow, but not enough to stick. There were a few flurries downtown already mixed in with drizzle. Not ideal biking weather, but I’m trying to bike more, especially with gas prices so high. So what the hell, I’ll be out in it today. Hopefully it won’t be too bad.

And if it is, I’ll just take the bus. I’ve been meaning to write about how nice it is that you can just throw your bike on the front rack and go. It’s such a great freedom to be able to have that as a plan b, and not have to figure out what to do with your bike. I got mine stolen about a year ago, and I’ve been worried about leaving the new one around ever since.

So if we have more than flurries when I’m heading home, or if I just don’t feel like riding, it’s nice to have an alternative.

Tonight could be rather exciting. We may see a long drawn-out battle between Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary. The Arizona primary, also tonight, will almost certainly be a win for Mitt.

As I write this, results are coming in for Michigan. Mitt takes an early, but slight, lead.

5:36: I’m at the Montlake Alehouse watching MSNBC with the sound down, but listening to the Politico live stream. Can’t say that I’ve ever listened to the Politico live stream before. It’s an experiment.

5:41: Ron Paul is going into crazy-speech mode on the Politico feed.

5:45: I hate it when politicians (like Ron Paul) say, “we’re broke!” Sorry, nutburgers, you aren’t “broke” unless your debt outweighs your assets and income. As far as I know, no state in this union has such debt. The U.S. certainly does not have that degree of debt.

5:51: Paul’s speech was even too crazy for Politico. They cut it off and replaced it with a boring panel discussing Romney’s “foot in mouth” problem.

5:56: Ohhh…with 10.5% reporting, Santorum leads Romney by an anal hair.

6:00: Now 16% in and Santorum is up by 200+. Oops, now 17% and Mitt puts Santorum behind him.

6:02: MSNBC calls it for Romney in Arizona. How ’bout that totally genuine Romney endorsement by Gov. Jan Brewer? She and Romney are so, totally, similar.

6:09: Romney spreads it out over Santorum.

6:13: MSNBC: “Romney wins Arizona” (where 0% have reported); “Too close to call in Michigan” (where we actually have results).

6:20: Santorum tightens it up.

6:26: How fucking pathetic is Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul has twice as many votes as Newt [in MI]. Oh, how the gigantic-headed mighty have fallen.

6:38: I think the Republicans should bring Rachael Maddow in as the “White Horse” candidate.

7:07: How fucking pathetic is Ron Paul? Newt Gingrich has twice as many votes as Paul in Arizona. Oh…how the diminutive, crazy-ass have fallen.

7:12: Santorum is doing a speech….something about a “professional mom” and about why he married his wife, Karen (who used to shack up with the physician who delivered her). Santorum mentions that he has seven children. I guess he can do that without Bachmann in the race….

7:18: Damn…Politico has interrupted Santorum’s speech. I really wanted to learn about what, exactly, is the issue with the parts of the U.S. that have experienced population lost. I’m guessing that it has something to do with the evils of birth control.

7:32: Future Almost First Lady Ann Romney is speaking. She openly acknowledged Donald Trump and Kid Rock. I sense a “Dancing With the Stars” appearance for Ms. Romney.

7:34: Mitt is the projected winner of Michigan. “What a win”, says Romney. It’s his state for fucks sake. The real story is that with 80% of the vote in, Romney is only up by 3%. The word “pathetic” comes to mind.

9:39: Two hours later and Mitt still only has a 3% lead in Michigan.

Please join us Tuesday night for another evening of electoral politics under the influence as we watch the returns arrive from the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Yes…it’s another episode of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally!

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier than that for the earliest election returns.

I’ll be live blogging the event.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also Tuesday meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday, there are meetings of the Olympia, the Yakima, and the South Bellevue chapters.

With 229 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

– I can’t think of anything more horrifying than Brent Bozell deciding who can use contraception.

– 1% tip. Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with people? (Apparently this was a hoax. My apologies that my bullshit detector didn’t go off.)

– In fairness to Rick Santorum, everything he does makes me want to throw up.

– I’m not sure it was inadvertent.

– The “war” on steroids always has been Kafka rewritten by Lewis Carroll. It is always going to have victims like Ryan Braun — or, worse, some player is guaranteed one day to be the victim of a demonstrably false positive result — because that is the nature of all authoritarian solutions.

– a list of ten ways in which a Republican president would have responded differently to Afghan concerns

It’s not time to hit the panic button yet, but this is certainly a really bad sign.

PubliCola has learned that the Washington State Department of Transportation, which initially predicted it would be able to raise $400 million in toll revenues to pay to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel, now believes tolls will raise only $200 million, half the original projection.

The $200 million figure comes from WSDOT’s proposed tunnel budget (see page 9), which is currently being reviewed by the state legislature. The revised budget now assumes $702 million in funding from the federal government—$219 million more than the original assumption of $483 million.

As Erica C. Barnett says, so far federal money will pay for this. And if the economy picks up, some of the toll money is likely to recover. So it’s not a showdown between the city and state at this point. But it brings us closer to that point.

Can someone explain to me why the most recent editorial on the Seattle Times’ Ed Page is from February 24?

… And they’ve fixed it.

– Poor, poor Koch Brothers.

– If Rick Santorum had his way, I wouldn’t have been able to get that test, and she most likely would have died. Because according to him, tests that give parents vital information about the health of their unborn children are morally wrong. Though he has no medical training, and no business commenting on the medical decisions that women and their doctors make, he argues that such tests shouldn’t be provided, or that employers at least should be allowed to opt out of paying for them on “moral grounds.”

– Shaun has some more on the proposed marriage equality plank for the Democratic platform.

– If the Yes Men have corporate America so afraid, they must be doing something right.

– Nobody expects the vaginal inquisition.

– the female orgasm is a violation of religious liberty.

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was in Mead, WA. Milwhcky was also able to get the location that I originally cropped but replaced because I thought it was too hard (it was in nearby Colbert).

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from February, good luck!

Exodus 22:31
You are to be my holy people. So do not eat the meat of an animal torn by wild beasts; throw it to the dogs.

Discuss.