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Teacher Evals

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 2/15/12, 8:00 am

I know I’ve been complimenting the legislature a lot recently. It feels quite strange. But fortunately, the state Democrats are back to being gigantic pissants who’ll fuck over their constituents for no reason.

The senate passed a compromise teacher evaluation bill this afternoon, 46-3. Republicans and moderate Democrats had been pushing a teacher evaluation bill for a couple of sessions now, but liberals had balked, echoing union concerns that it was unfair to teachers, who’ve already seen K-12 funding cut by $2.5 billion during the recession and who have already been working on district-by-district pilot projects to determine evaluation criteria.

…

However, Sen. Ed Murray (D-43, Seattle), with an eye on counting moderate Democratic and Republican votes necessary to pass his budget, resuscitated the bill, triggering negotiations between the reform contingent and the opponents.

Yes, as part of an effort to make deeper cuts to education, Ed Murray has decided to fuck over teachers by imposing an arbitrary evaluation system. This will be more teach to the test instead of quality learning in an effort to punish the teacher’s union.

Rich Wood, spokesman for the teachers’ union, the Washington Education Association, complained that the union was left out of the negotiations and didn’t see the bill until a few hours before the vote. He said: “This new legislation must not derail, short-circuit or otherwise interfere with the evaluation pilot work that is already underway, and educators must be allowed the flexibility to meet the unique needs of students in their local schools.”

You know what, I can’t say it strongly enough: if you don’t give teachers a spot at the table when drafting legislation, you obviously don’t give a shit about education. You obviously want it to fail. That any Democrat would vote for that is a fucking disgrace.

There are ways to have testing that let teachers know what they need to work on, and how they can improve. This is clearly not that.

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Poll analysis: McKenna leads Inslee 45% to 36%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/14/12, 6:30 pm

Elway released a new poll today for the Washington state gubernatorial race between A.G. Rob McKenna (R) and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01). The poll surveyed 405 registered voters (M.O.E. 5%) and was conducted from the 7th to the 9th of February.

The poll found that, out of those 405 voters, McKenna leads Inslee 45% to 36%, with 20% undecided. Of the 328 “decided” voters, 55.5% selected McKenna and 44.5% selected Inslee.

A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections [FAQ] using the observed percentages gave McKenna 918,606 wins to Inslee’s 75,709 wins. The analysis suggests that, if the election had been held this past week, McKenna would have a 92.4% probability of winning, and Inslee a 7.6% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral outcomes from the simulated elections:

ElwayFeb2012

This makes the fifth poll in a row that McKenna has led Inslee—his lead can no longer be explained by chance. The previous poll, taken in mid-January, had McKenna leading Inslee 46% to 43% and with a 71.5% probability of beating Inslee. In fact, Inslee last led in a SurveyUSA poll taken last June.

The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/14/12, 3:50 pm

Just in time for Valentines Day, Gov. Christine Gregoire has signed the marriage equality bill. Help us celebrate on Tuesday. Grab your sweetheart and join us for a celebration of love and equality under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

(Mercifully…there are no Republican debates or primary events to kill the mood….)

Drinking Liberally–Seattle meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some of us show up a little earlier for dinner.


Presidential candidate Valentines day cards.

Roy Zimmerman with a new version of vote Republican:


Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also meetings on Tuesday night of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville the Olympia, the Yakima, and the Shelton chapters.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Open Thread 2/14

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 2/14/12, 8:03 am

– Who could have predicted that Obama’s birth control compromise wouldn’t placate conservatives?

– A joint press release from Metro, Sound Transit, Community Transit, Pierce Transit and Kitsap Transit on the awful transportation bill.

– Neighborhood greenways

– Conservatives are good at articulating the complete visions of the society they want; we aren’t so great at that.

– Both left Congress under reasonably disgraceful conditions and were soon rewarded with millions of hard-earned dollars by our meritocracy. When you hit the bricks, new whips, money ain’t a thing.

– Happy Anniversary Shaun

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A Banner Day for Decency

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 2/13/12, 10:24 pm

Obviously, the big news is that Gregoire signed the marriage equality bill into law. While we’ve known it was going to happen for some time, it’s still quite amazing. Very recently this seemed like an impossibility, and now it’s a reality. Of course there’s a real possibility that it will come before voters in November, but for now, it’s just wonderful.

Also, even though the bill info isn’t updated in the legislative web page [sorry, I linked to the senate version, here’s the correct link, and it works fine. I remain an idiot], I’m getting a press release from Washington NARAL that:

This evening the Washington House stood up for women’s health and passed the Reproductive Parity Act (HB 2330) by a vote of 52-46. This legislation, sponsored by Rep. Eileen Cody (D-34), requires all health insurance policies that cover maternity care to cover abortion care. NARAL Pro-Choice Washington thanks the representatives who voted to protect women’s access to basic reproductive health care coverage.

And it looks like it’s going to pass the state senate.

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Rick Santorum is in Tacoma

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 2/13/12, 5:19 pm

And I’m not.

So on the one hand, who cares about the inside baseball stuff? But on the other hand, here’s a story about how the Rick Santorum campaign still feels like it’s amateur hour.

On Friday, I heard that Santorum would be in the area, so I went about trying to find a press person. First, to the campaign website. None of the tabs were a press person, and it looked like there were only a few offices, none in Washington. But! There was an 800 number.

So I tried it on Friday night, but it was pretty late. I tried it again Saturday morning, and was on hold for quite a while, before I decided “fuck it, it’s just not that important that I go.” So the end, right? There have been plenty of campaigns and elected officials who don’t get back to me. I also emailed Romney about his campaign appearance, and they also didn’t get back to me. I assume they see Horse’s Ass, and are like “fuck it, it’s just not important that we have him at our event.” That’s really fine. This blog is written by people in our free time and we don’t have time or the staff to follow up on this sort of thing like the professionals.

So, why am I writing this? Well, about 7:00 on Sunday I get a call back from the Santorum campaign (I didn’t leave a voice mail; I was just on hold for a while). I told them I was a blogger here in Seattle, and would very much like to attend Santorum’s rally. They said, I’d have to contact Nathan, their contact in (I think, but I didn’t write it down) Colorado, but that they’d love to have me. So fine, I left him a voice mail yesterday and again this morning. I called several other times and he never picked up. So I wasn’t making a trip to Tacoma if there was no WiFi or no electricity, and thus am heading home.

I know it’s a minor thing, but, don’t tell me I’m going to be able to attend and then not get back to me with any sort of arrangements. And really, nobody could direct me to someone in Washington who might be able to answer questions?

Now, compare that to when I saw Hillary Clinton 4 years ago. A few calls and I’m on the list, no problem. Compare it to Obama who could organize the Key Arena quickly and who had bloggers (although not me, I had to work) attend. Both of those were on almost as short notice as the Santorum campaign.

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Open Thread 2/13

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 2/13/12, 7:54 am

– Blue-green alliances.

– I’m as big a McGinn supporter as you’ll find and I agree with most of this. But I don’t think either the business community or Occupy Seattle are very happy with his handling of Occupy Seattle.

– And keep in mind; we’re not talking about abortion anymore. We’re talking about birth control.

– Obama’s Spotify playlist is pretty pedestrian.

– United States Bureau of Chronology

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A dose of weekend media

by Darryl — Sunday, 2/12/12, 10:13 pm

Here are a few things that came out over the weekend (i.e. too late for the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza).

WA Senate Democrat’s Week in Review podcast:
[audio:http://www.sdc.wa.gov/podcast/ITL_2012_7.mp3]

Obama’s Weekly Address: Extending the Payroll Tax Cut for the Middle Class:

Arianna Huffington talks women’s issues on SNL.

Bill Maher on Republican’s divided America:

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 2/12/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by Liberal Scientist. It was Ottawa.

This week’s contest is related to a TV show or a movie. Good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 2/12/12, 7:00 am

1 Kings 7:23
He made the Sea of cast metal, circular in shape, measuring ten cubits from rim to rim and five cubits high. It took a line of thirty cubits to measure around it.

Discuss.

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Romney Wins Maine, E-ah

by Carl Ballard — Saturday, 2/11/12, 5:32 pm

I have some errands to do, so nothing substantive here, but here are the results if you want to talk about them:

Willard “Mitt” Romney ………….39%
Ron “Mitt” Paul ………………….36%
Rick “Mitt” Santorum ……………18%
Mitt “Newt” Gingrich ……………..6%

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 2/10/12, 11:58 pm

What the Koch Brothers say on-line but won’t say under oath.

Bashir: With Congressional approval at 10%, Republicans intensify anti-Obama attacks.

It began five years ago today:

Jennifer Granholm: Michigan rebounds thanks to ‘active’ leadership.

Bill Maher: New Rules.

White House: Science fair.

The Delicious G.O.P. Primary

  • ONN: GOP introduces new “Mystery Candidate” with paper bag over head
  • Young Turks: Santorum’s Hat-Rick
  • Buzz 60: Santorum sweeps all three!!!
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Santorum and women’s emotions.
  • Young Turks: Santorum claims Obama is destroying religious liberty, families.
  • Sam Seder: Santorum compares health care to an iPad.
  • Young Turks: Low GOP turnout helps Santorum.
  • Maddow: Rick Santorum’s billionaire benefactor (pt. I)
  • Maddow: Rick Santorum’s billionaire benefactor (pt. II)
  • Young Turks: Rick Santorum on women in the military.
  • Newsy: Santorum sweep reveals Romney campaign trouble.
  • Mitt Romney: The web influence.
  • Maddow: Mitt’s 4 year anniversary.
  • One Minute News: Romney’s 1983 dog-on-the-roof story surfaces again.
  • Mitt: “We’re on the same page and same verse” as the Ryan plan to privatize Medicare
  • Sharpton: MITTion Impossible (or Willard’s Woes).
  • Actual audio: Mitt loves America.
  • Mitt Romney: What will he say today?
  • Bashir: Why conservatives don’t trust Willard.
  • Mitt’s Hits!
  • Sam Seder: Paul double dips on expense reimbursements.
  • Ed and Pap: Newt’s new Southern Strategy.
  • Sam Seder: Ron Paul Fan, “He’s not a bigot, you Jew!”.
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Mitt Romney’s believe it or not.

White House: West Wing Week.

Mark Fiore: The heart and mind-o-matic.

ONN: Panel analyzes Obama’s furious, profanity-filled rant at nation.

Thom: Are politicians now SuperPAC puppets?

The Week in Marriage Equality:

  • Newsy: WA passes same-sex marriage law.
  • Young Turks: Rep. Maureen Walsh’s (R) heartfelt speech to the WA House of Representatives.
  • One Minute News: Prop-8 ruling stay.

Newsy: Pelosi’s “stop Colbert” spoof ad goes viral.

Pap: How the GOP war on workers backfired.

Lobbyist poses as anti-union mechanic in Superbowl advertisement.

Maddow: The absurdity of GOP legislators rallying against ideas they previously supported:

Andrew Breitbart totally loses it at Occupy protesters.

Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Contraceptive Choice:

  • Jennifer Granholm: WWJD about birth control debate?
  • Sam Seder: Catholic Bishops attack on contraception…which 98% of Catholics use.
  • Alyona: The MSM’s birth control hysteria.
  • Ann Telnaes: Playing with women’s private lives.
  • Young Turks: Reasonable compromise.
  • Obama speaks on contraception accomodation.
  • Ed: Republican War on women’s health heats up.
  • Jennifer Granholm: Obama’s reasonable compromise.
  • Ed and Pap: Republicans hope culture war will re-ignite base.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: GOP is fucking INSANE over birth control.
  • Sam Seder and Markos: Contraceptive compromise.
  • Obama: Contraception.
  • Thom: It’s about health care, not bad Catholics.
  • Ann Telnaes: The Catholic church reaches outside its flock.
  • Newsy: Obama announces birth control compromise.

An interview with Jay Inslee.

Alyona: Time for a national popular vote?

Hannity’s Bizarre Claim:

  • Ed: Fox’s ‘syphilitic liar’ Sean Hannity says that ‘Obama didn’t want bin Laden dead!’.
  • Young Turks: Hannity’s bizarre theory that Obama wishes bin Laden was alive.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Buffoon Donald Trump thinks endorsing Romney guarantees him a position in Willard’s cabinet!.

Pres. Obama’s record on jobs:

Ed: Update on the Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) scandal.

The CPAC Funny Farm:

  • Young Turks: Herman Cain on “stupid people”.
  • Alyona: CPAC’s freedom for some.
  • The CPAC Carnival for Conservatives.
  • Embarassing: FAUX News contributer’s rap video at CPAC.
  • Sharpton: Juvenile taunts at CPAC.
  • Mitt Romney: Then and now (at CPAC).
  • Young Turks: Gay Republicans not welcomed at CPAC.
  • One Minute News: So you want to be a Conservative.
  • Alyona’s happy hour: cruising for gay sex at CPAC
  • Ed: CPAC starts with juvenile attacks on Obama.
  • Buzz 60: Santorum and Romney battle for CPAC love
  • Young Turks: CPAC dating seminar.
  • Sam Seder: State Sen. Constance Johnson (D-Oklahoma City) on he amendment to a Wingnut personhood bill .

    Ann Telnaes: Russia and China reject U.N. resolution condemning Syria.

    Obama and the marshmallow launcher.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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    Trust Teachers

    by Carl Ballard — Friday, 2/10/12, 6:39 pm

    During the Tacoma teacher strike the Tacoma News Tribune had by far and away the best news coverage of any mainstream media source. But man alive were their editorials brain numbingly awful. Well, congrats to the Trib for keeping up that fine level of nonsense. In an editorial about how we need the kind of bullshit education reforms that haven’t worked in other states, they serve up this gem:

    As usual, the Legislature’s powers-that-be crouch like defensive NFL linemen, ready to tackle anything that might challenge the failing trade-union model of public education.

    I don’t have clue one what “trade-union model of public education” even means. Most of these reforms seem to be just ways to commodity children and sell them to charter school corporations regardless of performance. The rest seem to just be ways to break the union. If the I-saw-Waiting-For-Superman-and-now-I-hate-teachers crowd were serious about reform, they’d work with the teachers: they are among the most interested parties after parents and possibly students.

    I mean the idea here seems to be that politicians (and editorial board writers) demagoguing the issue or bureaucrats administering tests are the ones who really care about education. Yet those politicians who’ve spent far too much time cutting education funding and the ed boards who cheered them on at every tax cut that made those cuts inevitable continue to attack, attack, attack the unions. They have far less credibility than teachers unions that have been fighting those cuts and the bullshit reforms at every step of the way.

    And yet instead of working with the teachers’ unions to both fund K-12 education and make reforms that make sense, it’s attack, attack, attack. No, let’s trust teachers.

    Also, “defensive NFL linemen” for serious is how you’re going to construct that phrase? Not “defensive linemen” and trust your readers to know what that means? Not “NFL defensive linemen” that at least has the advantage of not putting NFL in the middle of what the position is called for no reason?

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    It is about religious freedom

    by Darryl — Friday, 2/10/12, 10:35 am

    Obama announces “an accommodation” on the birth control issue:

    The “accommodation” is reasonable, and The Catholic Health Association (which was considered subversive by some Bishops during the 2009 health care debate) is “very pleased with the White House announcement”.

    The original issue is complete bullshit—yet another unholy liaison between religious extremists and right wing political opportunists. As MoJo’s Nick Baumann points out, much of the policy dates back to an Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ruling back in December, 2000, that went entirely unchallenged by the Bush administration:

    “It was, we thought at the time, a fairly straightforward application of Title VII principles,” a top former EEOC official who was involved in the decision told Mother Jones. “All of these plans covered Viagra immediately, without thinking, and they were still declining to cover prescription contraceptives. It’s a little bit jaw-dropping to see what is going on now…There was some press at the time but we issued guidances that were far, far more controversial.”

    After the EEOC opinion was approved in 2000, reproductive rights groups and employees who wanted birth control access sued employers that refused to comply. The next year, in Erickson v. Bartell Drug Co., a federal court agreed with the EEOC’s reasoning.

    So what changed? Almost nothing:

    “We have used [the EEOC ruling] many times in negotiating with various employers,” says Judy Waxman, the vice president for health and reproductive rights at the National Women’s Law Center. “It has been in active use all this time. [President Obama’s] policy is only new in the sense that it covers employers with less than 15 employees and with no copay for the individual. The basic rule has been in place since 2000.”

    The real issue at stake IS about religious freedom. It’s about whether an employer can impose its religious views on employees—and their bodies. It is whether individuals who work for religious-affiliated employers are required to accept their employer’s extremist views.

    And, no mistake about it, a prohibition on contraception in America, in 2012, is an extremist view.

    No. Individual rights to private matters of conscience—and matters of personal health—trump those of religious institutions.

    The government is right to protect individuals from that institutional violence.

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    Poll Analysis: Obama gains a bit more on Romney

    by Darryl — Thursday, 2/9/12, 9:43 pm

    [Update: An analysis with more recent polling data can be found here.

    I said in the previous analysis that a new poll was about to be released in South Carolina. It was. Unfortunately, they didn’t poll the presidential race. Too bad…now I’ll have to endure “I don’t believe the S.C. results” in comment threads and forums across the intertubes.

    Folks, there was a recent very large (2100+ person) poll taken in South Carolina…and Obama led Romney. Maybe the pollster got unlucky; just maybe the lead was real. Either way, nobody will be surprised if the lead turns out to be transient.

    With that off my chest, there are seven new polls released since the previous analysis:

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O R diff
    CT Yankee Institute 01-Feb 02-Feb 500 4.5 50 37 O+13
    IL Tribune/WGN-TV 02-Feb 06-Feb 600 4.0 56 35 O+21
    MN SurveyUSA 31-Jan 02-Feb 542 4.3 48.8 36.1 O+12.7
    NC PPP 03-Feb 05-Feb 1052 3.0 47 46 O+1
    OH Rasmussen 08-Feb 08-Feb 500 4.5 45 41 O+4
    PA Susquehanna 02-Feb 06-Feb 500 3.5 43 45 R+2
    VA Quinnipiac 01-Feb 06-Feb 1544 2.5 47 43 O+4

    We cannot profess any surprise in Obama’s lead in the Connecticut (+13%), Illinois (+21%), and Minnesota (+12.7%) races.

    Two swing states weight in. Ohio gives Obama a slender +4% lead. This means Obama has led in all three Ohio polls taken this year. And in Pennsylvania, Romney has a slenderer +2% lead. Nevertheless, a Keystone poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Obama leading 41% to 30%. Since both polls are considered “current” [FAQ], they are pooled and Obama ends up on top…for now.

    The South turns in a couple of pleasant surprises for Team Obama. In Virginia, Obama is up by +4% over Romney. The only other Virginia poll taken this year also has Obama up (+1).

    North Carolina seems to be leaning toward Obama (+1%). There are two other NC polls taken this year. A recent Civitas poll has Romney up +9. I should point out that Civitas is a conservative think tank, but their polls were okay in 2008. An early January PPP poll in NC had Obama up by +1. But only the two most recent polls are considered “current”, so Romney leads in North Carolina.

    The previous analysis found Obama with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then, and a mean of 335 electoral votes to Romney’s 203.

    With the seven new polls included, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 99,804 wins and Romney 196 wins (including the 21 ties). That suggests Obama has a 99.8% probability of winning an election held now. On average, Obama gains nine additional electoral votes: 344 to Romney’s 194.

    Obama Romney
    99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
    Mean of 344 electoral votes Mean of 194 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

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