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Clinton	Trump
94.2% probability of winning	5.8% probability of winning
Mean of 295 electoral votes	Mean of 243 electoral votes

Yesterday the analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with, on average, 296 electoral votes to 242. And Clinton’s probablity of winning was 93.9% to Trump’s 6.1% chance.

Today there were 19 new polls released. To me, the one noticable thing about today’s batch is that they weren’t that bad for Clinton and not that bad for Trump. You can see the polls and my comments on my Twitter timeline (@hominidviews).

My impression was verified by today’s analysis. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 94,164 times and Trump wins 5,836 times (including the 950 ties). Clinton received (on average) 295 to Trump’s 243 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 94.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 5.8% probability of winning.

In other words, very little has changed from today’s poll dump. This suggests that Hillary’s slide we’ve seen for the past week has hit bottom. If so, she may even make gains in the final four days, as Obama did in 2012.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2015 to 04 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Even with the election at 0.3% chance for Trump in Darryl’s latest analysis, the momentum is scary. It can be overwhelming, but you are not a passive observer. This democracy is yours. You can, and please do, vote. You can volunteer with your state or local party or with whatever campaign makes you the most excited (they’re probably working together). Seriously, the election is in your hands!

Clinton	Trump
93.9% probability of winning	6.1% probability of winning
Mean of 296 electoral votes	Mean of 242 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Donald Trump gaining a little over Sec. Hillary Clinton. She had a 99.7% probability of winning an election, and a mean electoral vote of 315.

Since yesterday’s analysis there have been 22 new polls released. The polls feel like they are a little more favorable to Trump. Indeed, now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 93,944 times and Trump wins 6,056 times (including the 1,017 ties). Clinton received (on average) 296 to Trump’s 242 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 93.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 6.1% probability of winning.

I should point out that there is one big change from yesterday. I am now using a 10-day poll window instead of a 14-day window. Doing this tends to nudge each candidate toward 50% probability of winning because sample sizes drop in each state. Additionally, the polls that are dropped are all pre-Comey polls. Clinton has slipped in the last two weeks, so we would expect a 10 day window to be worse for her than a 14 day window. The opposite happens when she is on an up-swing (see the time trend graph below to see both phenomena).

Something else of interest: four years ago tomorrow (Friday), I did an analysis that had Pres. Barack Obama up on Gov. Mitt Romney, 94.4% to 5.6% with a mean electoral vote total of 302 to 236. Essentially, Clinton is running at about the same strength now as Obama was in 2012. One difference, perhaps, is that Obama was starting to gain at this point, whereas Clinton seems to be losing EVs.

There are a few noteworthy shifts from my previous analysis.

Arizona loses two blue polls and a tie. Now all the current polls have small margins for Trump. His chances have gone up from 77% to 97%.

In Colorado, Trump doesn’t lead in any of the current polls. But the small margins for Clinton means that Trump moves from 5% to 21% chances of taking the state.

Florida switches from blue to red, primarily on account of (1) a bunch of pro-Clinton polls being dropped and (2) the addition of a Trump+4 Remington poll. Almost every Remington state presidentail poll I’ve seen this year looks like it is about 3 points skewed toward the Republican. And the firm is a Republican pollster. Still, it seems to be a real, valid pollster. In any case, we went from Clinton at 68% probability of winning to Trump at 58% in Florida.

Clinton slips a little bit in Maine, but this is entirely due to a smaller sample size from dropping one of three current polls.

The same thing happens in Maine’s 2nd CD, but now we are left with a pro-Trump and a pro-Clinton poll. Trump’s chances have increased from 44% to 57%. Earlier in the election season, Trump had a solid lead in ME-2.

In Nevada, we lost 6 polls, all but one favoring Clinton, and added one new pro-Clinton poll. This gives us four current polls: Clinton+2, Trump+6, Trump+6 and a tie. The Trump+4 poll is from Remington, by the way. This changes Clinton’s chances from 56% yeterday to only 13% today.

Over the last month, New Hampshire has seen a shift from strong Clinton to about even. Right now, Clinton would be expected to win NH with a 61% probability.

We have lots of new North Carolina polling. While most of the current polls favor Clinton, 3 of the 4 most recent ones favor Trump. One of them is, you guessed it, Remington. In any case, Clinton drops from 80% chance to 53% chance. A toss-up if there ever was one.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Nov-2015 to 03-Nov-2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Clinton	Trump
99.7% probability of winning	0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 315 electoral votes	Mean of 223 electoral votes

The previous analysis last Thursday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton winning the election with near certainty with, on average, 333 electoral votes (EVs) to Donald Trump’s 205 EVs.

Since then, there have been 91 new new polls released that satisfy my inclusion criteria. So today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,714 times and Trump wins 286 times (including the 9 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 (-18) to Trump’s 223 (+18) electoral votes.

In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.7% (-0.3%) probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.3% probability of winning.

There are a few interesting changes since Thursday. Most notably, Alaska is suddently blue! The only current poll has Clinton up by +4%. Previous polls had Trump leading. The trend towards Clinton looks plausible:

New polls have turned Arizona back to red again after being blue for some days. Last Thursday, Clinton would have won AZ with a 75% probability. Today, Trump would win with a 77% probability. The trend toward Trump is convincing:

Florida had been leaning blue last Thursday. A bunch of new polls has painted a redder picture, although Clinton’s chances have only dropped from 84% to 68%. Here is the last week of polling:

In Indiana, a new Trump+11 poll has strengthened Trump’s chances from 89% to 98%.

Last week we had two Iowa polls that, together, favored Trump. Now, the only current poll is a tie between the candidates dropping Trump’s chances from 71% to 50%.

Some new Maine polls have changed little beyond the state’s 2nd congressional district. Trump had a weak lead last week and now Clinton leads in two of the three current polls. Trump had a 58% chance of taking the CD last week; now Clinton has a 57% chance of taking it.

In Minnesota, a new poll gives Clinton a +10 margin, increasing her chances of taking the state to 99%.

In rare gains for Clinton, a new Montana poll only has Trump up by +1% instead of double digits. This lowers Trump’s chances from 100% to 97.7%.

We have three new polls in Nevada, and two of them give Trump a slight lead. The result is that Clinton’s chances have dropped from 83% to 56%. The state is, essentially, tied now.

Since last week, eight new North Carolina polls have come and a few lost out for a total of 14 current polls. What do all they new polls reveal? Clinton still has an 80% chance of taking the state. Here is the last two months of polling:

Ohio has gone more strongly for Trump. Last Thursday, Trump had an 89% chance of taking the state. Today that is 98%.

Oregon went from three current polls to one new one with Clinton at +7%. Because the poll is small there is great uncertainty, and Clinton’s chances have dropped to about 90%.

Pennsylvania has had a big polling rush the last few days. It hasn’t made much difference. Clinton wins every one, even if by small margins.

Last week, Trump was badly slipping in Texas, with +3% and +4% polls. Now, we have two new polls with Trump at +7% and +12%. Consequently Clinton’s chances have dropped in Texas from 14% to 0.1%.

Something similar has happened in Utah—polls tanked for Trump last week. This week they rebound with Trump up last week from 87% to about 100%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2015 to 02 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The election is coming to a close, and it’s kind of depressing. So let’s talk about something nicer:

Syphilis is at a 30 year high in King County. But the good news is you can get tested if you’re in one of the high risk groups. And you can get treated.

Only a week to go! Let’s celebrate with an evening of politics, conversation and catharsis over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

I finally finished my ballot, and dropped it off. While I was filling it out, I was struck by the fact that the only Green Party person asking for my vote was for President (2 if you count VP). Now, I didn’t vote for her, and frankly anyone not running as a Democrat is one strike against them.

But there are some positions where if the Greens are serious about running, I’d give them a look. I live in the 36th District and none of my legislators had someone running against them. Now I think I’d have voted for either of the House members over some long-shot from a different party. I could see the Greens doing some good trying to push Gael Tarleton to the left with a campaign, but I wouldn’t be on board.

But Reuven Carlyle? I mean he’s been pushing charters for years. He’s now on team I-hate-the-homeless, and opposed to rail to Ballard. I’d rather see a challenge from a Democrat, but it seems like if the Greens insist on running candidates, those sorts of offices will do a lot more good than running for President.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
48.0% probability	52.0% probability
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

My analysis last Tuesday showed control of the Senate going to the Democrats with a 63.5% probability and 50 seats. I’ve added a bunch of new Senate polls since then, and things look tied up.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 15,370 times and there were 32,633 ties (which I presume would go to the Democrats), and Republicans control the Senate 51,997 times. So, in an election held today, Democrats would have a 48% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans would have a 52% probability of controlling the Senate.

Essentially, the Senate is a toss-up. Here are the most important changes since Tuesday.

In the Democrats’ favor, Indiana has gained some clarity from a couple of new polls that favor Democrat Evan Bayh over Republican Todd Young. Bayh’s chances have gone from 56% to 89%.

Three new polls in Missouri move the race in favor of Republican Sen. Roy Blunt over Democrat Jason Kander. Blunt has gone from a a 35% chance last Tuesday to a 78% chance of taking the seat today.

In Nevada, we have a battle between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Joe Heck for Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) old seat. We have seven new polls and a couple of continuing polls since Tuesday, when Heck led in every poll. Today, Heck leads in 5 and Masto leads in 4 polls. Consequently, Heck’s chances have declined from 96% to 54%…pretty much a toss-up.

Today, we have eight new North Carolina polls and four carry-overs from last Tuesday, when the polls pretty evenly split between Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican Sen. Richard Burr. But the new polls have almost entirely gone against the Ross, and her chances have declined from 69% on Tuesday to 10% today.

In Pennsylvania, we have five new polls and five carry-over polls. The new polls have been a bit less favorable to Democrat Katie McGinty. Her chances against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey have declined a bit from 69% to 46%–basically the state is a toss-up.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 48.0%, Republicans control the Senate 52.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.5 (1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.5 (1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (48, 52)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 35
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	46
Strong Democrat	1	47
Leans Democrat	1	1	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	2	2	2	52
Leans Republican	3	3	50
Strong Republican	4	47
Safe Republican	43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	%	%	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		1	320	23.4	76.6	0.0	100.0
AZ		3	1425	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
AR		1	398	39.4	60.6	0.2	99.9
CA		2	1137	66.3	33.7	100.0	0.0
CO		4	2463	57.5	42.5	100.0	0.0
CT		1&	872	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
FL		13	8100	47.4	52.6	0.0	100.0
GA		4	3001	42.4	57.6	0.0	100.0
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		2	1309	30.2	69.8	0.0	100.0
IL		2	1780	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
IN		3	1361	52.3	47.7	88.5	11.5
IA		1	744	40.5	59.5	0.0	100.0
KS		1	506	36.2	63.8	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	440	43.2	56.8	1.9	98.1
LA		1&	794	34.6	65.4	0.0	100.0
MD		1&	614	66.6	33.4	100.0	0.0
MO		3	1450	48.6	51.4	22.2	77.8
NV		9	6135	49.9	50.1	46.4	53.6
NH		9	5573	49.6	50.4	32.6	67.4
NY		1	568	71.0	29.0	100.0	0.0
NC		14	8208	49.0	51.0	10.0	90.0
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		9	5050	41.5	58.5	0.0	100.0
OK		0	0			(0)	(100)
OR		2	1619	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
PA		11	6155	49.9	50.1	45.8	54.2
SC		1&	941	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		2	983	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
VT		2	1085	70.9	29.1	100.0	0.0
WA		1	462	63.0	37.0	100.0	0.0
WI		6	3659	53.5	46.5	99.8	0.2

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Follow @hominidviews on Twitter for Senate and Presidential polling and analysis updates.

Job 9:23
When a good person dies a sudden death, God sits back and laughs.

Discuss.

Stephen with the WERD: Debt Offensive.

Funny or Die: Hey New Hampshire, let’s vote! with Ben Affleck.

Young Turks: Sheriff Joe Arpaio charged with criminal contempt.

Epic Rap Battle: Hillary v. Drumpf.

Sam Seder” Sen. Mark Kirk blurts out racist comment about opponent Tammy Duckworth during debate

Samantha Bee: UN Tour.

WaPo: Eleven women who broke barriers in Washington D.C..

Mental Floss: 25 life hacks for Halloween.

The 2016 Sexual Offender Clown Show:

• Stephen: TV pitches for Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Drumpf’s closing argument
• Mark Fiore: A Drumpf named Sue.
• Drumpf Symphony
• Young Turks: Drumpf ex-wife says Donald is a cry baby.
• Maddow: Fred and Donald, “You know I don’t rent to the N******!”
• Olbermann: Would a Drumpf win or a foreign invasion be worse?
• Adam Ruins Everything: Other Donald Drumpfs throughout history:

• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf — Take ‘Em Off?
• Stephen: The ghost of Abraham Lincoln responds to Drumpf’s Gettysburg Address.
• Trevor Noah: Donald Drumpf, libel bully
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf’s Obamacare fail
• Olbermann: Why Donald Drumpf is obsessed with dictators.
• Stephen: Drumpf’s star is attacked.
• Kimmel: Drumpf’s star is vandalized.
• Funny or Die: Baby Drumpf!
• Thom: Drumpf sending “citizen journalists” to intimidate voters at the polls
• Olbermann: A message to women supporting Drumpf.
• Ana Gasteyer performs “Drumpfy Kind of Christmas”
• Kimmel: Drumpf-TV’s first scripted series.
• PsychoSuperMom: Sue me!
• Stephen: Joe Biden unloads on the potential groper-in-chief.
• James Corden: Donald stinks, and Eric Drumpf steals
• Trevor Noah: Taking Drumpf behind the gym.
• Muslims for Drumpf.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Hillary’s invitation
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf and the crack-up of the GOP
• Susie SampsonMake America Great Again:

• Jake and Amir: Donald Drumpf.
• Olbermann: The normalization of violence at Drumpf rallies.
• Stephen: Don’t let your flag near Drumpf.
• Maddow: RNC in legal troubles over Drumpf’s calls for poll watchers.
• Young Turks: Drumpf is a libel bully, loser.
• Kimmel: Obama laughs at Drumpf.

Challenging, frustrating, fantastic: Life as a woman in the White House.

Roll Call: Election forecast with 2 weeks to go.

President Obama on VOTING.

Key of Awesome: (Hamilton Parody) Hillary Rodham Clinton!:

Clinton Makes History:

• Obama on trusting Hillary Clinton.
• Stephen: Is Hillary really a Cubs fan?
• Seth Meyers: Hillary Clinton’s Facebook birthday messages
• Kimmel: Drumpf supporters wish Hillary happy birthday.

Kimmel: 500 weeks of Unnecessary Censorship.

Young Turks: Is FBI’s James Comey trying to manipulate the election?

John Oliver: Opioids.

Samantha Bee: First: Do No Harm. Second: Do No Pussy Stuff.:

How Hollywood views the women of Washington D.C.

Hillary Makes History:

• Seth Meyers: Late Night Presidential Debate
• Lessons in grace with Michelle Obama.
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 1)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 2)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 3)
• Olbermann: This election is too important to not vote for Hillary.
• David Pakman: Early voting is in Hillary’s favor.

Funny or Die: Hey America, let’s vote! with Judd Apatow.

Honest political ads: You’re fucked.

Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz proves that Republicans are whiny toddlers.

Trevor Noah: ObamaCare.

Newt “Cheating On My Wives For America” Gingrich:

• Sam Seder: Gingrich’s total meltdown on Megyn Kelly.
• Young Turks: Newt goes nuts during Megyn Kelly interview.
• Farron Cousins: FAUX’s Megyn Kelly hammers pervert Newt Gingrich

Adam Conover joins Stephen to ruin things.

White House: West Wing Week.

2,000 Seattle teachers unite in solidarity with #BlackLivesMatter.

Obama and Kimmel: Waking up.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’ve never really understood why our increasingly Democratic state still has a Republican Sec of State. And has had one for ever. But at least with most of the previous ones, they never seemed to have their hand on the scale. Sure, sometimes they’d propose bad ideas like only counting ballots received by election day.

Now though, it seems every day there’s some new fuckery from Wyman’s office.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes	Mean of 205 electoral votes

About 40 new polls have been released since my previous analysis a week ago. Sec. Hillary Clinton was winning with near certainty and up 338 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,925 times and Trump wins 75 times. Clinton received (on average) 333 to Trump’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

A few states have shown some interesting changes since last week.

• Arizona: Trump’s long non-winning streak is broken with a new Trump+1% poll that reduces Clinton’s chances of winning the state from 79% to 74%.

  

• Florida: Most recent polls have had Clinton up by a small margin, but this week we get a large Remington poll that has the state tied and a Bloomberg poll that has Trump up +2%. As a result, Clinton drops from a 93% chance of winning the state last week to an 85% chance of winning the state this week.

  

• Iowa: Trump has led in most polls, but one recent poll has Clinton up by +0.6%. Trump’s chances have dropped from 79% to 71%.

  

• Louisiana: Two new polls have Trump up by double digits, moving him from 94% to 100% chance of winning the state.
• North Carolina: Clinton has led in all recent polls, until a large Remington poll put Trump up by +3%. Clinton’s chances driop from 88% to 80%.

  

• Ohio: The most recent polls have Trump up by small margins. This has shifted Ohio from a 65% probabilitiy of a Trump win to a 89% probability.

  

• South Dakota: Last week we only had an old poll that had Trump up by double digits, giving Trump a certain win. A new Maxon-Dixon poll has Trump up by +7%, but the small size of the poll means that Trump’s chances are pegged at 89% new.
• Texas: We have only 2 current polls and Trump has tiny margins (+3% and +4%). Trump’s chances have dropped from 96% to 86% as a result.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 27 Oct 2015 to 27 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

I’m pretty much under the assumption that the NBA wants to punish Seattle for not caving to all of some random OKC millionaire’s demands. So I’m not sure Chris Hansen’s proposal to pay for all of a new stadium (video auto-loads) will do much to bring back the Sonics. And I this all still requires vacating Occidental, that was the sticking point for the City Council last time. Still, the city not being on the hook for any of the stadium sounds pretty good to me.

We’re in the final weeks of the 2016 General Elections and the ballots have dropped win Washington state. Isn’t this a good time for a drink? The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of politics over a pint.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 188 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

I’ve largely neglected local and statewide races this election season. No particular reason, although I haven’t felt that the Republican candidates in the Senate and Gubernatorial races have run particularly strong campaigns.

I guess it isn’t too late though. And today’s Elway poll piqued my interest in the Gubernatorial race. The race matches up Gov. Jay Inslee (D) against challenger Bill Bryant (R).

The poll, conducted from 20 Oct. to 22 Oct on 502 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.5%. Of the 502 respondents, 452 are either for Inslee or Bryant. Inslee received 256 “votes” (51.0%) and Bryant received 196 “votes” (39.0%), with Other or Undecided at 50 “votes” (10.0%). When we normalize the results to just Inslee and Bryant “votes,” Inslee gets 56.6% and Bryant gets 43.4%

I did a Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000,000 simulated elections. The final tally gave Inslee 975,893 wins and Bryant 22,276 wins. In other words, if an election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 97.8% probability, and Bryant with a 2.2% probability.

The probability distribution of electoral vote outcomes pretty much tells the story:

The previous poll, by Strategies 360 taken from 29 Sep to 3 Oct, gave similar results. The poll surveyed 500 individuals (4.4% MOE) and found Inslee at 50% to Bryant’s 40%, with 10% undecided.

With two weeks to go and ballots already being returned, it seems like Inslee is quite likely to serve a second term.