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Why Republicans hate an educated public…

by Darryl — Monday, 2/6/12, 11:49 am

Because they are SO FUCKING STOOOPID!!!

tumblr_lyxs451Uqx1qkt6yoo1_500

(h/t HuffPo)

Update: Mike Huckabee provides even more evidence for the Stooopid thesis (my emphasis):

“[I]t’s tragic that the Planned Parenthood organization now tries to present themselves primarily a health organization when they are primarily an abortion provider…. They provide some services. I will grant you that. But they are maybe on the fringes — are external portion of what they are primarily all about.”

Wingnut math: 3% == “a primary service”.

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Open Thread 2/6

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 2/6/12, 8:00 am

Before it gets too stale, here are some Komen links:

– Erica C. Barnett has a good overview of the situation as of Friday.

– Joan Walsh and Rebecca Traister on how the decision woke the country up to an alarming rightward drift, and gave new life to women’s health advocacy

– Pondering breast cancer, politics, and the 2 percent

– 5 Important Lessons from the Komen/Planned Parenthood Fiasco (Don’t Mess With Women’s Health)

– In case you missed it, a strange local connection. Some of the sales from the pink gun were donated to the Seattle Branch of the Susan G. Komen Foundation. (h/t to Geov)

Non-Komen items:

– You’ll never believe this, but sometimes The Seattle Times’ Ed Board say dishonest things.

– Nearly 150 truck drivers effectively shut down shipping out of the Port of Seattle when they went to the state capitol in Olympia instead of the port, to protest dangerous work conditions in the trucking industry. Drivers were so concerned about the way the industry treats them that they risked their careers to make their voices heard.

– The thing is, highly publicized “boy meets girl” (and “boy meets boy”) stories are nice, but they’re not the reality for most riders. And (if I may keep it real for a moment) sometimes, they’re a bit gag inducing. What I find most romantic about buses (no disrespect to Smooth Jazz) is the possibility of meaningful connections with strangers–not the kind that lead to a subway platform proposal or a bus-themed wedding, but the kind that leave you energized, enriched, and educated. The kind that make a difference in your day.

– An unusual wasp

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Superbowl open thread

by Darryl — Sunday, 2/5/12, 3:44 pm

There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.

If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.

Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.

3:45: Somebody scored a basket.

3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?

3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.

3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):

Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%

72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?

4:18: From Twitopia:

Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
“Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl

4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.

4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.

5:19: From Twitopia:

Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.

5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:

5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.

6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?

6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?

6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 2/5/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was damn near impossible. The correct answer was Houston, Texas. This one was so hard, it actually took me 10 minutes to re-find it in order to post the link.

This week’s is a little easier, also a random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 2/5/12, 7:00 am

Leviticus 3:17
So you and your descendants must never eat any fat or any blood, not even in the privacy of your own homes. This law will never change.

Discuss.

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Nevada caucus open thread

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 4:43 pm

It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.

I should be able to do some commentary.

Have at it in the comment thread.

4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:

The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….

4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.

4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:

  • Romney 50%
  • Gingrich 25%
  • Paul 15%
  • Santorum 8%

5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.

5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.

5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):

  • Romney 34.3%
  • Gingrich 30.3%
  • Paul 18.2%
  • Santorum 17.2%

5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.

  • Romney 41.7%
  • Gingrich 27.0%
  • Santorum 15.9%
  • Paul 15.5%

5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.

  • Romney 45.9%
  • Gingrich 20.8%
  • Santorum 17.7%
  • Paul 15.5%

5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:

  • Romney 36.7%
  • Paul 29.6%
  • Gingrich 19.7%
  • Santorum 12.9%

5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]

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Cook rates WA-1 and WA-10

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 8:47 am

The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.

The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)

WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.

WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.

These ratings have been stable for awhile.

Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.

Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:

Cook-house-4Feb2012

The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….

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A real case of voting fraud found: Indiana’s Republican SOS

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 12:51 am

Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.

And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.

Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.

I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.

Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.

So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.

An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.

The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….

Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.

The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.

This is going to get real interesting!

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.

ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.

Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.

Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

The SuperPAC Bites Back:

  • Ann Telnaes: Feeding the SuperPac beast
  • Stephen on the Americone Dream Super Pack pack.
  • Mark Fiore: Generic SuperPac Advertisement.
  • Stephen: The Greatest American SuperPAC donors.
  • SuperPAC meets the Superbowl.

Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.

White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:

Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?

Ed: “Wisconsin on steroids”.

Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).

Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.

Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).

Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.

The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:

  • Sam Seder: Anonymous exposes Ron Paul.
  • Rick Santorum suffers from some Bad Lip Reading:
  • ONN: GOP race now between Mitt and total voter apathy and other news of the week.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Newt hates freedom of religion.
  • Actual Audio: Sarah Palin defends Newt (or is it a poetry slam?)
  • Ed and Pap: The end of Newt?
  • Newt would like to live on the moon.
  • Ann Telnaes: Newt’s ideas are hard to digest.
  • Thom: Did the Gingrich campaign commit election fraud?
  • Alyona: Romney will ‘fix’ safety net by gutting it.
  • Jon on Mitt’s lack of concern for the poor (via Political Wire).
  • Young Turks: Romney doesn’t care about poor people.
  • Mitt’s most out of touch moments.
  • Jennifer Granholm: UAW president says Mitt Romney can’t win Michigan.
  • Young Turks: Romney ‘misspoke’ on ‘very poor’ comments.
  • Red State Update: Mitt hates old people and wins Florida anyway.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Spotlight on Mitt
  • Mitt commits ANOTHER unforced error:
  • Jon: Mitt, Donald and the coalition of the wealthy.
  • Thom: That’s not Punxatawney Phil…it’s…Trump!
  • Mitt gets glitter bombed (and can’t sing) (via Crooks and Liars).

Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.

Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.

Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.

Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.

White House: West Wing Week.

Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:

Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.

The Komen Kaper:

  • Young Turks: Komen severs relationship with Planned Parenthood.
  • Newsy: Funding pulled from Planned Parenthood for political reasons.
  • Buzz 60: Uproar as Komen pulls plug on Planned Parenthood
  • Young Turks: Planned Parenthood donations soar.
  • Ann Telnaes: Komen v. Planned Parenthood.
  • Young Turks take on anti-abortion activist.
  • Shuster: The backlash.
  • Young Turks: Komen reverses decision.
  • Newsy: Komen restores Planned Parenthood grants.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.

Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.

Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Strong Christian Values

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 2/3/12, 7:36 pm

Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:

My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.

Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.

The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.

If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.

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Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Gingrich

by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 5:05 pm

[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O G diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 52 35 O+17
FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 41 50 G+9
GA SurveyUSA 01-Feb 02-Feb 1144 3.0 43.9 49.7 G+5.9
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 49 42 O+7
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 51 39 O+12

The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.

In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.

Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.

The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.

Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 421 electoral votes Mean of 117 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Mind the Gender Gap

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 2/3/12, 7:50 am

Erica C. Barnett reports on a new study on gendered disparities in public transit. And while the study didn’t apply to Puget Sound transit orgs, Barnett looks at their conclusions and at Sound Transit, finding them lacking in at least one area.

What are the implications? The Atlantic suggests that if transit agencies take women’s needs into account, they will provide easier boarding and wider aisles (for women with strollers or heavy bags) and more transit service in care-related sites, like parks, daycares, and schools. Additionally, transit agencies could include more women on their boards, the Atlantic suggests. Although Sound Transit, the regional transit agency for the Puget Sound, is led by a woman, Joni Earl, its 16-member board is dominated by men, with just four female members. (It’s all-white, too).

Also, the King County Council Transportation, Economy and Environment Committee that deals with public transportation is 2/3 men (the same makeup as the entire council) and that the chair and vice chair are both men.

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DL Des Moines sends congratulations to WA for same-sex marriage

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/2/12, 11:48 pm

When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.

So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:

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Obama gains more ground on Romney

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/2/12, 10:18 pm

Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.

There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.

The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 49 41 O+8
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 45 45 tie
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 49 42 O+7

All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).

Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.

Obama Romney
99.4% probability of winning 0.6% probability of winning
Mean of 332 electoral votes Mean of 206 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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Open Thread 2/2

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 2/2/12, 8:02 am

– Reproductive Health and Rights Lobby Day

– Darryl noted the state senate passing the marriage equality bill. Andrew has more details including the roll call.

– And a couple bad bills fail to make it to the floor.

– In other states: Do not let the media silence fool you: Hoosiers are making noise.

– Republican Jesus supports Mitt Romney.

– Weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) contend with a number of ant-like spiders that look similar enough to their favored food to avoid detection by the ant guards. They lurk around the ants’ trails, pretending to be ants and grabbing a meal when the opportunity arises.

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