HorsesAss.Org

  • Home
  • About HA
  • Advertise
  • Archives
  • Donate

Poll Analysis: Obama gains a bit more on Romney

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/9/12, 9:43 pm

[Update: An analysis with more recent polling data can be found here.

I said in the previous analysis that a new poll was about to be released in South Carolina. It was. Unfortunately, they didn’t poll the presidential race. Too bad…now I’ll have to endure “I don’t believe the S.C. results” in comment threads and forums across the intertubes.

Folks, there was a recent very large (2100+ person) poll taken in South Carolina…and Obama led Romney. Maybe the pollster got unlucky; just maybe the lead was real. Either way, nobody will be surprised if the lead turns out to be transient.

With that off my chest, there are seven new polls released since the previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CT Yankee Institute 01-Feb 02-Feb 500 4.5 50 37 O+13
IL Tribune/WGN-TV 02-Feb 06-Feb 600 4.0 56 35 O+21
MN SurveyUSA 31-Jan 02-Feb 542 4.3 48.8 36.1 O+12.7
NC PPP 03-Feb 05-Feb 1052 3.0 47 46 O+1
OH Rasmussen 08-Feb 08-Feb 500 4.5 45 41 O+4
PA Susquehanna 02-Feb 06-Feb 500 3.5 43 45 R+2
VA Quinnipiac 01-Feb 06-Feb 1544 2.5 47 43 O+4

We cannot profess any surprise in Obama’s lead in the Connecticut (+13%), Illinois (+21%), and Minnesota (+12.7%) races.

Two swing states weight in. Ohio gives Obama a slender +4% lead. This means Obama has led in all three Ohio polls taken this year. And in Pennsylvania, Romney has a slenderer +2% lead. Nevertheless, a Keystone poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Obama leading 41% to 30%. Since both polls are considered “current” [FAQ], they are pooled and Obama ends up on top…for now.

The South turns in a couple of pleasant surprises for Team Obama. In Virginia, Obama is up by +4% over Romney. The only other Virginia poll taken this year also has Obama up (+1).

North Carolina seems to be leaning toward Obama (+1%). There are two other NC polls taken this year. A recent Civitas poll has Romney up +9. I should point out that Civitas is a conservative think tank, but their polls were okay in 2008. An early January PPP poll in NC had Obama up by +1. But only the two most recent polls are considered “current”, so Romney leads in North Carolina.

The previous analysis found Obama with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then, and a mean of 335 electoral votes to Romney’s 203.

With the seven new polls included, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 99,804 wins and Romney 196 wins (including the 21 ties). That suggests Obama has a 99.8% probability of winning an election held now. On average, Obama gains nine additional electoral votes: 344 to Romney’s 194.

Obama Romney
99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 344 electoral votes Mean of 194 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Blog swarm for marriage equality

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/9/12, 9:00 am

Today Horsesass.Org is participating in a Washington United for Marriage and Daily Kos blog swarm to help support the marriage equality campaign in Washington State. HA is joined by bloggers from Bilerico Project, Pam’s House Blend, Good As You, AMERICABlog Gay,the Prop 8 Trial Tracker, the Seattle Lesbian, The Bent Angle, on the-Ave, MadProfessah, HRC, Hella Bus, Step Forward, LGBT POV, FrontiersLA, the Left Shue, Peace Tree Farm and more.

This has been an incredible week! On Tuesday a three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals ruled Proposition 8 unconstitutional. In the majority opinion, the court wrote,”Prop 8 served no purpose, and had no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California.”

On Wednesday, the Washington State House passed a same-sex marriage bill, and now it the bill is headed to Governor Gregoire’s desk for her signature. She promised to sign the bill before Valentine’s Day!

Please click here to thank Governor Gregoire.

Governor Gregoire’s leadership was instrumental to the success of passing a marriage bill in Washington State. She not only supported the bill, but she introduced the bill. This is as much her legislation as it is our community’s legislation.

Please join us during this blog swarm to thank Governor Gregoire for her leadership and her friendship. There is little doubt our opponents will make their voices heard, but we know that together our voice for equality is so much stronger.

Please click here to the Washington United for Marriage’s and Daily Kos’ joint petition to thank Governor Gregoire for making history.

When our friends speak up for us, we need to speak up for our friends, so join us in thanking Governor Gregoire today!

Did you sign the thank you petition? Share it with your friends: http://wufm.it/4

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Big day for same-sex marriage in Washington

by Darryl — Wednesday, 2/8/12, 10:00 am

murray_inaugural3Jerry Cornfield summarizes the likely trajectory of ESSB 6239, the same-sex marriage bill.

A vote should come this afternoon…watch it live on TVW.

There is something you can do before the debate and vote begins…call or email your Representatives encouraging them to support passage. Even if your Rep. already supports the legislation, a show of support is important—you can probably imagine the type of campaign opponents are undertaking right now.

You can very quickly find contact information for your Representatives here.

Update: As expected…it passed.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Republicans get their caucus on Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/7/12, 5:04 pm

I’m livebloggin’ it from the Montlake Alehouse!

Ladies and gentleman, the comment thread is open for your pleasure….

5:17: We have CNN on the tube, sans sound. I’ll see if I can find streaming audio. Otherwise, this will be an impressionistic report based on video and emotional stimulus only….

5:19: The teevee tells me that Romney and Santorum are tied in MO at 36% each. Go Frothy!

5:21: Romney puts Santorum down -1%.

5:23: In Missouri, Uncommitted is slightly ahead of Ron Paul. Go Uncommitted!!!!

5:38: I’ve been on the phone with my neighbor for the last 10 minutes or so, but I see there has been some action. Santorum moved on top of Romney, then Romney moved back on top of Santorum. Somebody get a hose, please.

5:52: In MO, “Uncommitted” has just pulled ahead of Ron Paul! Go Newt!

5:45: And now Romney is tied with Santorum. Ewwwwwwwww!

5:47: Minnesota weighs in and Mitt is way, way down…in THIRD place.

5:49: In Missouri, Paul is now +2 over uncommitted. And by “uncommitted”, I think they mean “Gingrich”

5:53: Minnesota. Remarkable:

  • Santorum 49%
  • Paul 22%
  • Newt Mitt 15%
  • Gingrich 14%

6:20: Carl Ballard is here, so I’m chatting instead of serving you…

6:20: How totally awesome is this…Santorum is on top in all THREE states. If you believe in a God or god or Gods or gods, pray that this holds when more than 1% of the vote is in.

6:22: A hat-trick by Santorum tonight will cost Mitt Romney about $25 Million, will cost SuperPACs another $15 Million, and will leave all the candidates bloody and battered by the General election.

6:25: Carl Ballard isn’t wearing a sweater vest tonight. But that’s because he bicycled in tonight. He has an orange safety vest for biking in…and it doubles as a spiffy uniform when he joins the moon colony.

6:30: Romney goes on top of Santorum in CO….well, it was fun while it lasted….

6:35: Santorum is going to win the M states tonight. Mmmmmm for Santorum!

6:40: Holy SHIT! He is leading all 3 states…. Santorum spreads his philosophy across mid-continental U.S.

6:42: Santorum smears the competition in Missouri…CNN projects.

7:03: CNN has grainy, out of focus footage coming from their “caucus cam.” Isn’t that what got Rep.Anthony Weiner in trouble

7:21: I keep getting excited every time CNN shows Santorum way up in Colorado. But really, it has been the same result for a long time now. They keep repeating it over and over again, nevertheless it may not be true. But mark my words, the Romney camp is shitting their pants right now.

7:24: Okay…just as I posted that, new results came in from CO. Romney is tied with Santorum.

8:46: Holy shit…after Romney’s shit-eating-grin-festooned speech, he is shaking all kinds of hands, and we see TELEPROMTERS in the background. My God…Obama got more than Health Care Reform from Mitt Romney!!!

9:22: Goldy is here and he is totally vexed by the low numbers in Colorado…where Santorum is totally beating expectations by leading Romney. Unfortunately, the reported votes are not a random sample, but we can wish for a Santorum win…

9:25: And, of course, the second I leave the previous comment, Romney captures the lead from Santorum. Come-on, PRAY, people, PRAY!

9:40: Romney spreads his lead over Santorum….

9:51: 70% reporting in CO, and it looks like Santorum may just squeeze out a victory…. And Colorado Springs hasn’t reported yet, which ought to work in his favor.

10:03: Holy shit…Santorum pulls a HAT TRICK!!!! Incredible…an (un)clean sweep.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Drinking Liberally—Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/7/12, 3:45 pm

DLBottlePlease join us for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

There are three primary events tonight: The Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and the no-stakes “show-me” primary in Missouri. This one looks pretty interesting. The latest polls show:

  • Gingrich is polling third in Colorado, behind Romney and Santorum
  • Santorum has a slight lead over Romney in Minnesota
  • Santorum may even take Missouri (though based on a slightly older poll)

Will Santorum really win two out of three?!? Clearly we’ll have some live blogging going on for this G.O.P. train-wreck.

Drinking Liberally–Seattle meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our nominal starting time is 8:00 pm, but some of us will show up much earlier for the political happenings.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapters. On Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Surrender day for Mitt

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/7/12, 2:55 pm

Today is an auspicious day for Mitt Romney. It was four years ago today that he surrendered:

Romney’s candidacy, into which he has dumped well more than $35 million of his own fortune, had become a longshot, slipping far behind John McCain and losing ground even to Mike Huckabee. But he said he was pulling out of the race and clearing the way for McCain’s nomination for the good of the party and, ultimately, the country.

The good of the country?!? What the fuck?

As president, either of the Democratic contenders, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, Romney asserted, “would retreat and declare defeat” in Iraq and the war on terror. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be part of aiding a surrender to terror,” Romney said.

Oh yes…we all remember that day when our President, Barack Hussein Obama, handed keys to the White House over to Osama bin Laden—you know, shaped into and delivered to Osama in the form of a bullet. To the head. But, you know, with a limited stealth operation instead of a full military invasion, it was kind-of surrenderish.

Four years ago now, the G.O.P. front-runner was John McCain. My Monte Carlo-based analysis of the polling data had McCain leading Sen. Obama by 341 to 197 electoral votes and Sen. Hillary Clinton by 310 to 228 electoral votes.

How did Romney stack up against Obama at the time? My last analysis in that match-up had Obama trouncing Romney 378 to 160 electoral votes. Four years later, the “score” has Obama up 335 to 203. Not much of a marginal return on investment after the first $35 million!

Today is auspicious for another reason. Romney will win at least one of the three primary contests—Colorado caucus for sure. But he’ll sure be red-faced if he only wins one of the three. And the last polling in Minnesota shows Santorum with a double-digit lead over Romney—who may even finish third or fourth. The most recent poll for the Missouri primary was from late January and showed Rick Santorum over Romney by +11%.

If he does suffer a pair of losses tonight, Mitt should consider for future 7 Feb to not even get up in the morning—instead, he should spend the whole day nestled in his recharging unit.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Unconstitutional

by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/7/12, 12:33 pm

That’s the Appeals Court ruling on California’s same-sex marriage ban.

“Proposition 8 serves no purpose, and has no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California, and to officially reclassify their relationships and families as inferior to those of opposite-sex couples,” wrote U.S. Circuit Judge Stephen Reinhardt. “The Constitution simply does not allow for laws of this sort.”

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Obama holds his lead over Romney

by Darryl — Monday, 2/6/12, 7:07 pm

Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.

Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
MT Public Opinion Strategies 09-Jan 10-Jan 400 4.9 36 53 R+17
NH U NH 25-Jan 02-Feb 495 4.4 50 40 O+10
NY Siena 29-Jan 01-Feb 807 3.4 63 31 O+32

Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.

The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!

ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12New Hampshire

The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)

With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.

Obama Romney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 335 electoral votes Mean of 203 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Why Republicans hate an educated public…

by Darryl — Monday, 2/6/12, 11:49 am

Because they are SO FUCKING STOOOPID!!!

tumblr_lyxs451Uqx1qkt6yoo1_500

(h/t HuffPo)

Update: Mike Huckabee provides even more evidence for the Stooopid thesis (my emphasis):

“[I]t’s tragic that the Planned Parenthood organization now tries to present themselves primarily a health organization when they are primarily an abortion provider…. They provide some services. I will grant you that. But they are maybe on the fringes — are external portion of what they are primarily all about.”

Wingnut math: 3% == “a primary service”.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Superbowl open thread

by Darryl — Sunday, 2/5/12, 3:44 pm

There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.

If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.

Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.

3:45: Somebody scored a basket.

3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?

3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.

3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):

Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%

72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?

4:18: From Twitopia:

Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
“Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl

4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.

4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.

5:19: From Twitopia:

Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.

5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:

5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.

6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?

6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?

6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Nevada caucus open thread

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 4:43 pm

It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.

I should be able to do some commentary.

Have at it in the comment thread.

4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:

The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….

4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.

4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:

  • Romney 50%
  • Gingrich 25%
  • Paul 15%
  • Santorum 8%

5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.

5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.

5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):

  • Romney 34.3%
  • Gingrich 30.3%
  • Paul 18.2%
  • Santorum 17.2%

5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.

  • Romney 41.7%
  • Gingrich 27.0%
  • Santorum 15.9%
  • Paul 15.5%

5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.

  • Romney 45.9%
  • Gingrich 20.8%
  • Santorum 17.7%
  • Paul 15.5%

5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:

  • Romney 36.7%
  • Paul 29.6%
  • Gingrich 19.7%
  • Santorum 12.9%

5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Cook rates WA-1 and WA-10

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 8:47 am

The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.

The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)

WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.

WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.

These ratings have been stable for awhile.

Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.

Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:

Cook-house-4Feb2012

The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

A real case of voting fraud found: Indiana’s Republican SOS

by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 12:51 am

Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.

And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.

Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.

I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.

Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.

So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.

An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.

The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….

Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.

The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.

This is going to get real interesting!

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.

ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.

Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.

Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

The SuperPAC Bites Back:

  • Ann Telnaes: Feeding the SuperPac beast
  • Stephen on the Americone Dream Super Pack pack.
  • Mark Fiore: Generic SuperPac Advertisement.
  • Stephen: The Greatest American SuperPAC donors.
  • SuperPAC meets the Superbowl.

Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.

White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:

Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?

Ed: “Wisconsin on steroids”.

Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).

Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.

Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).

Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.

The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:

  • Sam Seder: Anonymous exposes Ron Paul.
  • Rick Santorum suffers from some Bad Lip Reading:
  • ONN: GOP race now between Mitt and total voter apathy and other news of the week.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Newt hates freedom of religion.
  • Actual Audio: Sarah Palin defends Newt (or is it a poetry slam?)
  • Ed and Pap: The end of Newt?
  • Newt would like to live on the moon.
  • Ann Telnaes: Newt’s ideas are hard to digest.
  • Thom: Did the Gingrich campaign commit election fraud?
  • Alyona: Romney will ‘fix’ safety net by gutting it.
  • Jon on Mitt’s lack of concern for the poor (via Political Wire).
  • Young Turks: Romney doesn’t care about poor people.
  • Mitt’s most out of touch moments.
  • Jennifer Granholm: UAW president says Mitt Romney can’t win Michigan.
  • Young Turks: Romney ‘misspoke’ on ‘very poor’ comments.
  • Red State Update: Mitt hates old people and wins Florida anyway.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Spotlight on Mitt
  • Mitt commits ANOTHER unforced error:
  • Jon: Mitt, Donald and the coalition of the wealthy.
  • Thom: That’s not Punxatawney Phil…it’s…Trump!
  • Mitt gets glitter bombed (and can’t sing) (via Crooks and Liars).

Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.

Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.

Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.

Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.

White House: West Wing Week.

Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:

Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.

The Komen Kaper:

  • Young Turks: Komen severs relationship with Planned Parenthood.
  • Newsy: Funding pulled from Planned Parenthood for political reasons.
  • Buzz 60: Uproar as Komen pulls plug on Planned Parenthood
  • Young Turks: Planned Parenthood donations soar.
  • Ann Telnaes: Komen v. Planned Parenthood.
  • Young Turks take on anti-abortion activist.
  • Shuster: The backlash.
  • Young Turks: Komen reverses decision.
  • Newsy: Komen restores Planned Parenthood grants.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.

Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.

Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Gingrich

by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 5:05 pm

[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O G diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 52 35 O+17
FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 41 50 G+9
GA SurveyUSA 01-Feb 02-Feb 1144 3.0 43.9 49.7 G+5.9
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 49 42 O+7
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 51 39 O+12

The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.

In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.

Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.

The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.

Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 421 electoral votes Mean of 117 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print
  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 116
  • 117
  • 118
  • 119
  • 120
  • …
  • 187
  • Next Page »

Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 7/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 7/25/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 7/25/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 7/23/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 7/22/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 7/21/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 7/18/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 7/18/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 7/16/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 7/15/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Pedo Pastor on Monday Open Thread
  • Alec Baldwin on Monday Open Thread
  • The Been on Monday Open Thread
  • lmao on Monday Open Thread
  • Tanto on Monday Open Thread
  • Pedo Pastor on Monday Open Thread
  • Jew Murderers on Monday Open Thread
  • Pedo Pastor on Monday Open Thread
  • EvergreenRailfan on Monday Open Thread
  • Drill baby DRILL with no vaseline on Monday Open Thread

Please Donate

Currency:

Amount:

Archives

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

[iire_social_icons]

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

© 2004–2025, All rights reserved worldwide. Except for the comment threads. Because fuck those guys. So there.