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Poll Analysis: Obama moves into a “significant” lead over Romney

by Darryl — Saturday, 1/28/12, 11:11 pm

[Update: An analysis using some newer polls can be found here.]

Since the previous analysis in this race, five new state head-to-head polls representing four states have been released.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 44 48 R+4
FL Quinnipiac 19-Jan 23-Jan 1518 2.5 45 45 tie
MI EPIC/MRA 21-Jan 25-Jan 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
MN PPP 21-Jan 22-Jan 1236 2.8 51 41 O+10
PA Keystone Poll 17-Jan 22-Jan 614 4.0 41 30 O+11

Two new polls come from Florida, where the media markets are currently flooded with Republican primary ads. The newest poll from Mason-Dixon gives Romney a small +4% lead over Obama. The slightly older Quinnipiac poll has the race all tied up at 45% a piece.

In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by an impressive +11%. That’s even better than Michigan, where Obama leads Romney by +8% in the new poll. The Pennsylvania poll is more favorable to Obama than the newest Minnesota poll that has Obama up by +10%

In the previous analysis, Obama would have won with a 71.9% probability, and his average electoral vote total was 284 to Romney’s 254.

Now, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama an expected electoral vote total of 306 to Romney’s 232 for an election held now. Obama is at a 95.1% probability of winning that hypothetical election to Romney’s 4.9%. By traditional statistical inference, we would say Obama’s lead is “significant”—that is, it’s unlikely to be due to sampling error.

Obama Romney
95.1% probability of winning 4.9% probability of winning
Mean of 306 electoral votes Mean of 232 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 1/27/12, 11:58 pm

Young Turks: Barney Frank to marry his partner.

Darcy Burner: Never Give Up:

Young Turks: Conservative’s more likely low IQ and racist.

White House: West Wing Week.

Countdown with Dan Savage: Same-sex marriage equality.

The GOP Gladiatorial Games:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Obama v. Gingrich

by Darryl — Friday, 1/27/12, 9:10 pm

UPDATE: An analysis using newer polls can be found here.

As promised, here is my first analysis of a 2012 match-up, using state head-to-head polls, between Pres. Barack Obama (D) and former congressman Newt Gingrich (R).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama an average of 416 electoral votes to Gingrich’s 122. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win an election held now.

Now you can see why the Republican Establishment cannot let Newt get the nomination. He loses badly against Obama.

Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 416 electoral votes Mean of 122 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Rob McKenna still against same-sex marriage

by Darryl — Friday, 1/27/12, 12:37 pm

One of the things we “learned” this week is that gubernatorial hopeful Rob McKenna is against same-sex marriage.

On Wednesday, McKenna told KCPQ-TV (3:47):

I will vote to maintain the current law and the current definition of marriage.

I guess he has given up on the line, “I hold the same views as President Obama.”

Goldy wrote about this under the headline, “McKenna Finally Admits He Opposes Gay Marriage”. But is McKenna only now admitting he opposes same-sex marriage?

I mentioned last June that McKenna has previously taken a stand on the subject:

In 2004, King County Superior Court Judge William Downing issued a controversial ruling that same-sex couples could marry. The Seattle Times, sprung to action to find out where candidates in state-wide races stood:

…King County Councilman Rob McKenna, criticized the ruling’s wording as too broad and said its argument that there is no compelling state interest to deny marriage to two people in a committed relationship could leave marriage open to blood relatives or those practicing polygamy.

“It threatens to destroy all standards we apply to the right of marriage,” he said.

One might argue that McKenna was only criticizing the wording of a ruling, rather than the effect of legalizing same-sex marriage.

Closer scrutiny reveals that as bullshit. I encourage you to read the ruling for yourself—it’s well-written, and includes some amusing word play. Judge Downing:

…concludes that the exclusion of same-sex partners from civil marriage and the privileges attendant thereto is not rationally related to any legitimate or compelling state interest and is certainly not narrowly tailored toward such an interest.

The ruling doesn’t “open up” incestuous or polygamous marriages. To do so, it would have addressed an additional set of state laws that are narrowly targeted to toward protecting compelling state interests in prohibition of incestuous or polygamous marriages. It didn’t touch on those at all.

No…what McKenna was doing was using a bullshit “legal-like” argument to express his opposition to same-sex marriage, while not quite saying so.

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It’s a “I can’t believe another one is on Tee Vee” open thread

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/26/12, 5:12 pm

That’s right. It is another Republican debate.

They say, debate is what catches de-fish, and what a stinkin’ mess we have here.

So go grab some tartar sauce if you prefer, or a bag of Cheetos and play along.

The live stream can be found on CNN or here.

5:15: The topic has been on illegal immigration. Romney parses classes of illegals and who he is concerned about and who not.

5:16: Newt says he doesn’t want to grab a grandmother in a church. He goes for young women now. (Older women while in high school).

5:17: Mitt yells at Romney about calling him “anti-immigrant”. Apparent “anti-immigrant” is a “highly charge epithet”. I can think of worse.

5:21: The debate has turned in to a bickering match between Mitt and Newt.

5:24: Paul is pro-Cuba. Santorum is TOTALLY OUTRAGED by Obama’s policy in Central and South America. Nothing he says connects with anyone.

5:25: Santorum again sounds the alarm bells about Iran and al Qaeda in Cuba.

5:29: Mitt was saying something about unemployment and housing, but I was fading out….

5:31: It back to Mitt and Newt are airing dirty laundry. It is very personal and awkward!

5:33: Newt seems to be losing this Fannie-Freddie argument, but it is hard to tell. Ron Paul: the topic doesn’t interest me at all.

5:36: Santorum wants to shrink Fannie and Freddie until it can be drowned in a bathtub.

5:37: Santorum: “If these guys (Mitt, Newt) don’t quit bickering, I’m going to sent them to their rooms without dinner.”

[Read more…]

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Poll analysis: Four new polls…Obama still ahead

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/26/12, 12:34 am

In the previous installation, President Barack Obama was leading Mitt Romney by 290 to 248 electoral votes on average, with a 77.5% probability of winning. Today there were four new polls released, and Obama slips a little bit:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Suffolk 22-Jan 24-Jan 600 4.0 42.2 46.8 R+4.7
NY Marist 18-Jan 19-Jan 554 4.5 58 35 O+23
NC Civitas 09-Jan 11-Jan 300 4.0 39 48 R+9
WI Marquette Law School 19-Jan 22-Jan 701 3.8 47.9 39.9 O+8.0

Obama and Romney alternate wins in the four Florida polls taken since early December. In this one, Romney leads Obama by +4.7%.

In North Carolina, Romney currently leads Obama by +9% (48% to 39%), but Obama lead by +1 in the previous poll and they were tied in the poll before that. Romney is at a slight advantage, although I am a little suspicious of the Civitas polls—they come from a conservative think-tank. But their polling track record isn’t horrible.

In Wisconsin, Obama is up by +8.0% over Romney, 47.9% to 39.9%. In fact, Obama has led in all eight polls taken in Wisconsin since December 2010 (i.e. over a year). Finally, no surprise, New York has Obama up by a solid +23% over Romney.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 71,946 times and Romney wins 28,054 times (including the 1,246 ties). Obama receives (on average) 284 to Romney’s 254 electoral votes. Obama has a 71.9% probability of winning and Romney has a 28.1% probability of winning.

Obama Romney
71.9% probability of winning 28.1% probability of winning
Mean of 284 electoral votes Mean of 254 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Gingrich now leads the G.O.P. race

by Darryl — Wednesday, 1/25/12, 2:59 pm

Mitt Romney has mostly been the G.O.P. front runner for at least the past year. There are transient exceptions.

Most recently, from early November to mid-December of 2011, Newt Gingrich lead the Republican pack in the national polls. But Americans remembered why they despised Gingrich—an arrogant motherfucker, who is mean, nasty, and corrupt. Mitt re-took the lead as the first polls of 2012 came out.

Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll found Newt in the lead by a remarkable +7. And today, the Gallup tracking poll put Newt up by +3.

Once can be a fluke. But not twice in a row. It appears that Newt taken the lead—perhaps for a few days, or maybe right up to the convention.

One of the implications for me is that I should probably start doing state head-to-head matchups of Obama against both Newt and Mitt. When I started this year’s batch of analyses I wrote:

At this point, I am only doing analyses of an Obama versus Romney general election. As much as I would like to see one of the weaker candidates take the G.O.P. nomination, I’m pretty certain Republicans will, as they did in 2008, act rationally, and chose the candidate that performs best against Obama in head-to-head polling. That is currently Mitt Romney. As the Republican primary circus continues, I’ll reassess. If, say, Santorum trickles on up to the front (eww!) or there is a crazy surge for Ron Paul, or the Mittster takes a tumble after unintentionally tweeting a photo of his underwear, or Rick Perry challenges the rest of ‘em to a duel (and wins), I’ll switch do doing analyses for the new front-runner(s).

Mitt didn’t magically Tweet a bulge in his underwear, but he did release his tax forms. That’s pretty much the same thing. So, while I still believe Republicans will ultimately act rationally and pick the candidate who performs best against Obama, I’ll give you the same analyses for the mean motherfucker who thinks knows he is the smartest man in the world.

I started collecting poll information for Newt last night. Perhaps I’ll have the first Obama—Gingrich analyses out by tomorrow.

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Mmmmm…tastes like unborn baby!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 11:30 pm

Day by day it gets harder to defend Republicans against the charge that they are collectively stark-raving mad. I don’t know why I try any more:

An Oklahoma lawmaker files a bill to ban the making and selling of food or products that use aborted human fetuses.

State Senator Ralph Shortey says he’s done research and found reports that companies have used stem cells in the research and development of food.
[…]

“There is a potential that there are companies that are using aborted human babies in their research and development of basically enhancing flavor for artificial flavors,” says [State Senator Ralph] Shortey.

Okay, so it’s not really insanity. You see, some of these “concerned” lawmaker types just haven’t yet learned how to filter truth from fiction, fact from rumor, science from made-up-shit-designed-to-freak-people-out that one occasionally comes across whilst doing “research” on the InnerTubes.

This reminds me of a previous State of the Union address where some stark-raving mad indiscriminate presidential speech writer slipped into the speech some InnerTube weirdness about the dangers of human animal hybrids.

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SOTU Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 5:54 pm

Okay…I am stuck in traffic on Montlake. But I can, apparently drive and blog, so here is the thread. Enjoy the discussion while I enjoy the fragrence of car exhaust.

6:11: I made it to the Montlake Alehouse just in time for the start. Man…it took 30 minutes to drive from UW campus…a 20 minute walk….

6:15: This morning, Boehner was calling Obama un-American. This evening he has to introduce Obama to the entire nation. Awwwwwwkward.

6:18: Biden is doing a great job keeping that spot on his forehead stationary, while moving his head around it. Great party (and SOTU) trick!

6:19: Obama wears a red tie. Boehner wears a blue tie. This is the dawning of a new age of bipartisanship!

6:24: Even Boehner is being forced to clap (gingerly) at some of these tax ideas. Poor guy…it must hurt.

6:25: Eric Cantor is thinking, “Oh my God…we’re going to have to oppose this?!?”

6:34: Obama plots to get more young people into those institutes of liberal indoctrination…. Educated citizens == Bad for Republicans

6:35: Obama channels Rick Perry on illegal immigration. How can the Republicans not feel all warm and cozy inside?

6:39: Mitch McConnell was obviously heavily sedated prior to the SOTU address.

6:42: Republicans are all like, “boooooo…clean energy….bad, bad, bad.”

6:44: Watch…dollars to doughnuts, next week there is a house bill to prevent the military from investing in clean energy.

6:47: There Obama goes again, pandering to the “millions of innocent Americans”. What about the millions of guilty Americans????

6:49: Thanks, TV people, for that magnificent view of Holy Joe’s facial pores.

6:51: What kind of anti-American bastard is Boehner…he isn’t wearing a flaggy-flag pin!

6:55: Tax breaks for the wealthy or keep our investments? I wonder what Republicans would choose?

6:58: Obama argues for investing in the future. Yeah…like that is going to win over the selfish teabaggers.

7:01: Obama has a new theme…the divide between Washington D.C. and the rest of America. This could be a potent theme. But the follow-up was pretty weak. (I don’t think insider trading by congresscritters really highlights the problem.)

7:11: Joe Biden wipes away a small tear.

7:14: Obama uses graphical imagery to help us all live the assassination of Osama bin Laden.

It’s over. Obama was pretty much focusing on common (D & R) themes. “Send me bills and I’ll sign them.”

Now we can enjoy the Republican rebuttal followed by the Michele Bachmann second rebuttal….

7:29: Mitch Daniels seems angry. Given his approval ratings, I guess he has good reason to be angry.

7:30: “With a government as big and bossy as this one….” What a fucking pathetic whiner!

7:31: Gloom and Doom! What a pessimistic son-em-bitch.

7:32: Carl Ballard: “I’m surprised how political the speech is!”

7:33: “Being a businessman is the most noble of human pursuits”…which pretty much means that Mitch—the politician—is self-loathing.

7:35: Mitch Daniels looks like the very model of a modern undertaker.

7:38: Mitch criticizes “Obama” by quipping about freedom to choose the right light bulb. Apparently he doesn’t realize that the lightbulb thing was done by the BUSH administration…while he was director of the Office of Budget Management. What a fucking dolt!

Mitch Daniels gives the second worse Republican response. It will take generations to out bad Bobby Jindal. But damn he tried.

7:52: There seems to be a live Tarantula on Mitt Romney’s head!

7:53: Did anyone notice that both Mitch Daniels and Mitt Romney have defaced flaggy-flag pins on? There is a big blotch in the middle of the stripes. Some say, communists do that.

7:57: Poor Mitt…all those millions and he still cannot keep his hair under control…

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Special State of the Union Drinking Liberally

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 3:40 pm

DLBottleIt’s State of the Union season. So please join us this evening for a State of the Union under the influence edition of Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week we start at 6:00 pm to catch the start of the SOTU address.

Of course we will be live-blogging the SOTU address from Drinking Liberally, so if you cannot make it to DL, join the discussion right here.

On another topic: Newt or Mitt?

Can’t make it tonight? There are also meetings on Tuesday evening of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. And Wednesday evening, the Burien chapter meets. So…with 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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“Another freakin’ debate?!?” open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 1/23/12, 5:49 pm

Debate. Florida. Tonight. 6:00 pm local time.

This one could be an earth scorcher.

Consider this. The past couple of weeks of polls have had Romney leading Gingrich by double digits in Florida. Today, there were two new polls released, and Gingrich leads Romney by +8 and +9.

Romney needs to do something different—that could be quite interesting.

Gingrich needs to not screw up, yet remain on the attack. He needs to show is fangs, but probably not bite anyone but the media.

Santorum and Paul are there for the shits and giggles.

I’ll live blog when I can, but I may have a couple of interruptions.

Live stream is at NBC here.

6:08: Mitt comes out attacking Gingrich…but he is using too much, too soon. Clearly, when it come to attacking, Mitt is a novice.

6:10: Newt says Mitt is “a lousy historian.” Yeah…I’ll bet Mitt never earned a monthly “retainer” of $25000 to $30000 to serve as an “historian.”

6:12: I think Rick Santorum is saying something.

6:14: Ron Paul, “The delegates is what counts.”

6:16: Will Ron Paul run as a 3rd party candidate. “No plans to do that.”

6:18: Mitt on what is controversial in his tax returns: “No surprises.” “But the real question is the American people…”taxes too intrusive”, “lower tax rates”, “pro-growth tax policy”, blah, blah, blah.

6:21: Priceless: Newt gets Romney to volunteer that under his (Newt’s) tax plan, Mitt would have paid zippo, zilch, zero tax (’cause his income is all capital gains).

6:24: I think Santorum just burbled something.

6:25: Seriously…Santorum is almost incomprehensible tonight. He’s pullin’ a Perry.

6:26: Newt defends his $25,000 to $30,000 PER MONTH “historical consulting” retainer: We had a consultant come in and tell us the fine line between lobbying and citizen activism.

6:30: The debate briefly spirals out of control with Newt and Mitt arguing back and forth. Perhaps the moderators have fallen asleep?

6:32: Mitt thinks influence peddling is “not right.” I am sure he will shut down K-street should he become preznit.

6:37: Rick Santorum’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, but help people get out from being underwater. Ron Paul’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, and let people fail.

6:41: Newt: “Repeal Dodd–Frank and the economy will recover overnight.” Ummm….didn’t the economy tank—and remain tanked—before Dodd–Frank was passed?!?

6:44: Mitt, “The President has taken a VERY DANGEROUS PATH with regard to Cuba.” WTF?!?

6:44: Newt: Fidel Castro is going to hell.

6:45: Paul: “The Cold War is over!” “I don’t know why all the Cubans are so intimidating.”

6:47: Santorum: “Sanctions in Cuba should continue until the Castros are dead.” WTF?!?

6:48: Santorum seems to be claiming that Cuba has become a platform for Jihad. Perhaps he believes “Jihad” is waged by all people with darkish skin.

6:49: Mitt, again, claims that the “Navy is smaller than any time since 1917.” Politifact: Pants on Fire.

7:00: Santorum gets all scaremongery over Iran. Still…no evidence that they are developing a nuclear weapon.

7:02: Santorum: Pipelines and off-shore rigs are the safest way to transport oil. I guess that works…if we live in the Middle East.

7:03: Newt tries to justify is lunatic rantings about the need for English as an Official Language. Sure…that will solve the problem.

7:04: Mitt agrees. Paul…let the States decide what is best for them.

7:06: Newt and Mitt: Dream Act for foreign mercenaries Only!

7:08: Mitt relies on people “self-deport[ing]” when they are dying of hunger.

7:09: Newt on sugar, “In an ideal world you would have an open market”…but I couldn’t do anything about it. I tried.

7:11: Mitt: Just get rid of sugar subsidies.

7:11: Mitt: “Everything Obama has done has made it worse for Florida.”

7:19: Did Historian Newt just mis-remember the Terry Schaivo case? I think Newt said her husband wanted her to live.

7:21: Mitt wants NASA to be a collaboration between government, private business, and our educational institutions. Wait…isn’t that what’s going on right now?

8:03: I was in there up to 7:25—the final break. I was “on” for dinner, so during the breaks I was running out to the kitchen to prepare enchiladas.

Wrap-up:

Newt wins. He made no gaffes. He weaseled his way out of questions about his past ethics violations and failed House leadership.

Mitt isn’t very good on the attack—to me, his attempts fell flat.

What we have here, folks, is a two way race that is nearly tied: Mitt, the rich boy who desperately wants to be President and Newt, the self-confessed smartest man in the world, who knows the position needs him.

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Same-sex marriage has 25 Senate votes

by Darryl — Monday, 1/23/12, 12:19 pm

A press release was just issued stating that Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-10 LD) will support Senate Bill 6239, that will legalize same-sex marriage in Washngton state.

The Senate bill was introduced with 23 sponsoring senators. Last Thursday, Sen. Jim Kastama (D-25 LD) signed on.

And then there was 25.

Passage is all but certain in the House, which means same-sex marriage is coming to Washington.

Opponents have promised to put a referendum on the ballot. But, considering that a recent Washington Poll poll found 55% to 38% support for such a referendum, this pretty much works in favor of those supporting equal rights for same sex couples. Having the referendum on the ballot may well encourage disgruntled liberals to participate in other high-stakes elections.

Update: Within minutes of posting this, I received a robo-poll from the National Organization for Marriage seeking my opinion whether “marriage should be between one man and one woman only.” I said, “no”, and was then asked my sex and whether I was over 50 years old.

Their web site proclaims:

The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) today pledged to work with allies in Washington State to mount a referendum campaign to ensure that voters have the final say on the definition of marriage in Washington. Legislation, House Bill 2516 and Senate Bill 6239, has been introduced to abandon Washington’s historic definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman, thus imposing same-sex marriage on the state.

Just one more reason why the 2012 election will be extraordinary.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 1/20/12, 11:58 pm

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: How Republicans pack the courts.

White House: West Wing Week.

That political whorehouse that is Fox News is Worst Person in the World.

SOPA—PIPA:

  • Sam Seder: Our SOPA blackout
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Three SOPA Power Players.
  • Mark Fiore: SOPA–PIPA
  • Thom: Blacked out over SOPA.
  • Alyona’s Fireside Chat: SOPA blackout, future model for protest?
  • Jon on the SOPA protests.
  • About SOPA and PIPA.
  • Rockbottomcookie: Stop SOPA.
  • Sam Seder: SOPA & PIPA not the first time governments have messed with the web
  • Keith and Markos: shocking victory over SOPA
  • Alyona: PIPA/SOPA stopped for now.

Congressman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) is Worst Person in the World.

Sam Seder: Arizona pretends Mexicans don’t exist.

Obama: Lunar New Year Message.

Maddow: Why Gov. Mitch Daniels is an embarrassing choice for GOP response to State of The Union .

ONN: Critics slam Obama for just standing there…during photo op.

Olbermann with Nancy Pelosi: Reflections on election 2012.

Stephen does retired justice John Paul Stevens.

Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

  • Sam Seder: Republican clown car just got roomier.
  • SC debate redux:

  • Bill Maher: Rick Perry’s secret PAC ad.
  • Thom: 94 hamsters and Rick Perry’s brain.
  • The Huntsman girls’ unseen anti-Romney ad.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Huntsman scrubs web site of anti-Romney materials.
  • Ed: Wildest day of the GOP campaign leaves Mitt ‘Cayman’ Romney reeling
  • Mitt Romney dodges questions
  • Mitt Romney is STILL dodging.
  • Young Turks: Mr. 15%
  • Pap: Public thinks Romney only cares for the wealthy
  • Sharpton: Mitt Romney scrambles to hide Cayman Islands ‘loot’ .
  • Mitt Romney throws Granny off a cliff.
  • Mitt: Maybe.
  • Mitt Romney goes to SNL
  • Ad: Rich Kids for Romney:

  • A taxing day for Mitt Romney.
  • Mitt Romney, for laughs. (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Alyona’s Tool Time award: Mitt Romney “from the streets”
  • Ed and Pap: Is Romney breaking the law with offshore bank accounts?
  • Thom: Is Mitt Romney a serial killer?
  • Mitt: Bain vs. Detroit
  • Ann Telnaes: When $362,000 a year is “not very much”.
  • Pro-Gingrich PAC imagines an Obama—Romney debate (via Political Wire).
  • Actual Audio: Newt thinks he will win South Carolina.
  • Stephen on Newt: He’s a Southern gentleman.
  • Red State Update: Newt’s open marriage, Rick Perry drops out, Mitt’s rich….
  • Newt Gingrich: Man of many wives.
  • Ann Telnaes: GOP wants an open marriage with Mitt.
  • Young Turks: Newt’s “Open Marriage” is worst example of family values.
  • Jon mocks Newt over “open marriage” accusation.
  • Thom: Crazy Alert—Rick Perry’s Tattoo

Sam Seder: A million signatures in Wisconsin.

Young Turks: Obama’s “Al Green” performance is a hit.

Alyona: Citizens United, two years later.

Jon with Fear Factory (via OneGoodMove).

Ann Telnaes: Stephen Colbert’s truthiness.

White House: David Plouffe on the State of the Union: The White House wants to hear from you:

Thom with some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Running for President of the United States of South Carolina:

  • Jon is adrift in a sea of Colbert SuperPAC money.
  • Colbert SuperPAC is definitely not coordinating with Stephen Colbert.
  • Colbert SuperPAC: Vote Herman Cain, not Stephen Colbert.
  • Stephen Colbert is attacked by Colbert SuperPAC.
  • Stephen and Herman rally in South Carolina.

Ed with some Republican Psychotalk

Newt Gingrich sneers his way to Worst Person in the World.

Brave New Foundation: President Eisenhower warned us about Military-Industrial Complex and today’s war profiteers.

Thom: The Occupy Movement is mutating.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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SOPA & PIPA die

by Darryl — Friday, 1/20/12, 3:07 pm

In case you haven’t heard, SOPA and PIPA are dead:

SOPA sponsor Lamar Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said his committee won’t take up the bill as planned next month — and that he’d have to “wait until there is wider agreement on a solution” before moving forward.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, meanwhile, said he was calling off a cloture vote on PIPA he’d scheduled for Tuesday.

…or at least delayed:

Reid tried to put on a brave face, saying in a statement that he was optimistic that progress could be made in the coming weeks.

Memo to Harry Reid:

What the fuck?!?

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Poll analysis: Obama still leads Romney

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/19/12, 11:04 pm

It’s been about a week and we finally have a handful of state head-to-head polls to look at:

Start End Sample % % %
St Poll date date size MOE O R Diff
AZ Rocky Mountain 05-Jan 09-Jan 553 4.3 37 43 R+6
FL Tarrance Group 10-Jan 12-Jan 607 4.1 46 45 O+1
NJ Quinnipiac 10-Jan 16-Jan 1460 2.6 48 38 O+10
OH Quinnipiac 09-Jan 16-Jan 1610 2.4 44 42 O+2

In New Jersey, Obama’s +10% over Romney isn’t a big surprise.

There are three more interesting swing states. In Arizona, Romney has a +6% lead over Obama. In Florida, Obama was slightly down in the previous poll and now has the slightest +1% lead. And in Ohio, Obama goes from being -1% in the previous poll to a +2% lead over Romney in the most current poll.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 294 to 244 electoral votes, and with a 78.5% probability of winning an election held now.

With these new polls, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 77,516 wins to Romney’s 22,484 wins (and he gets the 1,386 ties). Obama receives (on average) 290 to Romney’s 248 electoral votes. Obama has a 77.5% probability of winning and Romney has a 22.5% probability of winning.

Obama Romney
77.5% probability of winning 22.5% probability of winning
Mean of 290 electoral votes Mean of 248 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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