Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.
There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.
The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | Marist | 25-Jan | 27-Jan | 2795 | 1.9 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
| MO | PPP | 27-Jan | 29-Jan | 582 | 4.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
| OH | PPP | 28-Jan | 29-Jan | 820 | 3.4 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).
Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.4% probability of winning | 0.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 332 electoral votes | Mean of 206 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 338 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.29% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.20% probability
- 339 electoral votes with a 2.14% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
- 334 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.01% probability
- 347 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 1.94% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 1.92% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.4%, Romney wins 0.6%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 332.1 (22.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 205.9 (22.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 332 (285, 379)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 206 (159, 253)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 34 | |||
| Strong Obama | 230 | 264 | ||
| Leans Obama | 60 | 60 | 324 | |
| Weak Obama | 24 | 24 | 24 | 348 |
| Weak Romney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 |
| Leans Romney | 42 | 42 | 190 | |
| Strong Romney | 87 | 148 | ||
| Safe Romney | 61 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 443 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 13.6 | 86.4 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 1744 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 900 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 730 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 65.4 | 34.6 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 544 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 64.5 | 35.5 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 6 | 6961 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 86.2 | 13.8 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 582 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 846 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| IN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IA | 6 | 1* | 1277 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 98.1 | 1.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.0 | 93.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 7.1 | 92.9 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| ME | 4 | 1* | 586 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 905 | 63.3 | 36.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1 | 528 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 92.5 | 7.5 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1 | 1137 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 524 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 49.6 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1462 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 658 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 269 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 54.6 | 45.4 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 204 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 18.6 | 81.4 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 185 | 29.2 | 70.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1* | 513 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 86.3 | 13.7 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1* | 993 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 23.2 | 76.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 1256 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 455 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 515 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 2 | 971 | 49.0 | 51.0 | 33.7 | 66.3 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| OH | 18 | 2 | 2130 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 91.4 | 8.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 464 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 92.4 | 7.6 | ||
| PA | 20 | 1 | 436 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 84.8 | 15.2 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 454 | 37.7 | 62.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 1139 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 11.5 | 88.5 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1 | 637 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 8.6 | 91.4 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 1085 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 557 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 58.3 | 41.7 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 496 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 90.6 | 9.4 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 811 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1 | 616 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 94.8 | 5.2 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Anyone who votes for Obama should move to Greece and get an idea of what happens when debt is not managed.
# 1: A bunch of frat guys find out that the house owned by the parents of one of their members is vacant, the parents are away on a trip to Europe. So they decide to have a party.
Lots of booze, girls, and breakage. After a while they decide that the parents are rich and won’t miss a few things, so they start taking whatever appeals to them.
Somebody eventually tosses a lit cigar into a trash can, which is already full of debris and alchohol from half-empty bottles. Within minutes, the entire house is up in flames.
The fire department arrives. The drunken frat boys are all in the driveway. The police tell them they have to leave, and a few get arrested for public intoxication. Soon the crowd turns ugly. The drunken spectators to the fire start taunting and jeering at the firefighters. “You are wasting too much water!” “Haven’t you gotten the fire out yet? We want to get back in and finish our party!” “You don’t know what you are doing”! “I bet if it was a white guy, the fire would be out by now. Did you get that job through affirmative action?”
And so, we have a parable for the Republican candidate’s complaints about Obama’s handling of the economy.
Here’s another one, from a comedian who’s name I don’t remember: “Blaming Obama for the recession is like blaming your hangover on the guy who’s cooking you breakfast”.
I’m having a hard time accepting that Virginia and S. Carolina are that weak for the Republicans. I predict that will firm up in the red column in the next few months. The rest of the map looks pretty good.
Anyone who makes comparisons between the Greek economy and the U.S. economy is a talk radio listener who isn’t smart enough to know that the host is just trying to manipulate you.
Just one difference among many, but it’s a big one.
Greece’s trade imbalance is very near 200% The U.S. roughly 20%.
is more often than not the yd(iot)..
@1 Anyone who lives in Greece should come to the U.S. and see what happens when economic policy is managed rationally. Job growth is exploding under our “socialist” president and the unemployment rate plunged another 2/10ths of a percent last month to 8.3%. Romney just lost his best talking point; he’ll not only have to run on his party’s dismal record of economic failure, he’ll also have to run against a popular president presiding over a rapidly expanding economy.
# 6: It sure would be nice to see unemployment fall back into the 7% range by this summer. But economists are warning that would amount to an increase in the GDP well in excess of 5%, which they think would trigger inflation.
As for myself, I don’t see the negative consequences. We are still heading up towards “sea-level”, making up for four years of lost opportunity. Only after we reach sea-level and start climbing above that will inflation be a significant factor.
Besides, with the Fed rate at near-zero, they’ve got plenty of room ato adjust the total money supply, if necessary.
@7
You mean there’s more to economics than the average winger can fathom?
6 & 7,
You need not worry: Obama will win re-election, but the House and Senate will remain about the same in their make-up. What we’ve had for the past three years will continue for the next five years.
@9 By November, there may not be a Republican Party left to field a candidate against Obama. Democrats probably will lose ground in the Senate, simply because they have more senators up for re-election and more senators retiring. I don’t know what the odds are, but there’s a chance the House could flip. I don’t see any major change in the political dynamic after the election; Republicans will still control enough Senate seats to impede the economic recovery and make governing nearly impossible.
The Rs’ world is falling apart all around and upon them. You reap what you sow, I guess.
Forget about the election being a competition of ideas. This is the age of personal attacks and sound bites. The GOP nominee, whoever he is, has no hope of getting the swing vote unless he runs a campaign of lies. And that’s what Romney is doing:
“Over the past two days, Mitt Romney has resurrected this claim hitting President Obama: He has made the economy worse. … However, most of the economic numbers don’t support Romney’s claim.”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....statistics
Roger Rabbit Commentary: It’s good to see the media calling bullshit on Romney’s lies. Of course, his response will be to attack the media for telling the truth.
Why We Have Deficits
“According to new data from the Congressional Budget Office, … U.S.-based companies paid only 12.1 percent in taxes on profits earned domestically. This is the lowest rate in four decades, and it’s forcing budget forecasters to increase their deficit projections for the coming years.”
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.co.....panies-pay
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Actually, our friend yd may be onto something — we’re becoming like Greece. The root cause of Greece’s fiscal crisis is massive tax evasion. A major reason why we have trillion-dollar deficits is because corporations and wealthy individuals pay much less taxes than they used to, even as a series of Republican administrations boosted spending dramatically. That’s the road to Athens.
# 11: I just read that article, and it WAS nice to see the mainstream media start to call Romney (and other Republicans) liars when they repeat such falsehoods.
But part of the problem in this country is that we don’t have a generally accepted neutral news source upon which much of the nation relies to investigate and report on the truth. ABC, NBC, an CBS used to fill those functions, but Republican politicians (beginning with Nixon) have gradually gained ground in their attacks on them, claiming they are “biased”.
Now much of the nation doesn’t listen to them anymore – the left gets its national news from MSNBC and CNN, and the right gets theirs from Fox News. Neither trusts the sources of the other, and will disregard anything which comes from those sources.
So if you live in a household where Fox News is the only news source, you will never hear such false claims dissected by real journalists. Unfortunately, this dichotamy is tearing the country apart.
@10,
In other words, you’re confirming what I said @ 9.