by Darryl, 02/06/2012, 7:07 PM

Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.

Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
MT Public Opinion Strategies 09-Jan 10-Jan 400 4.9 36 53 R+17
NH U NH 25-Jan 02-Feb 495 4.4 50 40 O+10
NY Siena 29-Jan 01-Feb 807 3.4 63 31 O+32

Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.

The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!

ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12New Hampshire

The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)

With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.

Obama Romney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 335 electoral votes Mean of 203 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 329 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
  • 328 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 343 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability
  • 344 electoral votes with a 1.97% probability
  • 345 electoral votes with a 1.94% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.6%, Romney wins 0.4%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 335.2 (22.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 202.8 (22.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (288, 382)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (156, 250)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 63
Strong Obama 205 268
Leans Obama 60 60 328
Weak Obama 24 24 24 352
Weak Romney 0 0 0 186
Leans Romney 38 38 186
Strong Romney 87 148
Safe Romney 61

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
4 8 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 754 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 443 46.3 53.7 13.2 86.8
AR 6 1* 1744 40.4 59.6 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1* 900 55.6 44.4 99.2 0.8
CO 9 1* 730 51.1 48.9 66.5 33.5
CT 7 1* 544 51.1 48.9 63.0 37.0
DE 3 0* (100) (0)
DC 3 0* (100) (0)
FL 29 6 6961 50.9 49.1 86.1 13.9
GA 16 1 1072 45.5 54.5 2.1 97.9
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1* 846 54.5 45.5 97.0 3.0
IN 11 0* (0) (100)
IA 6 1* 1277 54.1 45.9 97.8 2.2
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 7.3 92.7
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 6.8 93.2
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME 4 1* 586 56.3 43.7 98.6 1.4
MD 10 0* (100) (0)
MA 11 1* 905 63.3 36.7 100.0 0.0
MI 16 1 528 54.5 45.5 93.2 6.8
MN 10 1 1137 55.4 44.6 99.5 0.5
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 1 524 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
MT 3 1 356 40.4 59.6 0.4 99.6
NE 2 1* 658 42.7 57.3 0.5 99.5
NE1 1 1* 269 50.6 49.4 55.0 45.0
NE2 1 1* 204 45.6 54.4 18.7 81.3
NE3 1 1* 185 29.2 70.8 0.0 100.0
NV 6 1* 513 53.4 46.6 86.0 14.0
NH 4 1 446 55.6 44.4 95.0 5.0
NJ 14 1 1256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM 5 1* 455 58.2 41.8 99.4 0.6
NY 29 2 1273 65.1 34.9 100.0 0.0
NC 15 2 971 49.0 51.0 33.6 66.4
ND 3 1* 480 41.3 58.8 0.4 99.6
OH 18 2 2130 52.1 47.9 91.3 8.7
OK 7 0 (0) (100)
OR 7 1* 464 54.7 45.3 92.3 7.7
PA 20 1 436 57.8 42.2 98.8 1.2
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 85.2 14.8
SD 3 1* 454 37.7 62.3 0.0 100.0
TN 11 1* 1139 47.5 52.5 12.0 88.0
TX 38 1 637 46.2 53.8 8.9 91.1
UT 6 1* 688 33.0 67.0 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 1085 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
VA 13 1 556 50.5 49.5 56.6 43.4
WA 12 1* 496 54.2 45.8 90.7 9.3
WV 5 1* 811 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
WI 10 1 616 54.5 45.5 94.6 5.4
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

10 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Obama holds his lead over Romney”

1. rhp6033 spews:

I am still skeptical about Virginia and S. Carolina going blue in this next election. I’d love to be surprised, however.

2. yd spews:

I’ll take Clint Eastwood! Make My Day!

3. Darryl spews:

rhp6033,

The SC results may well be a fluke (like, perhaps, the NH results). But that’s where the polls are at now. As I mention, a new SC poll is forthcoming.

Virginia is a different story. Check out the polling history:
ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12Virginia

Except for one brief period, Obama has dominated in Virginia. The complication is that Romney gained the advantage around election time in 2011. If I had to bet now, I’d call VA a toss-up, but with a very slight edge for Obama.

4. Roger Rabbit spews:

What’s with Montana? Do they let goats vote there?

5. Roger Rabbit spews:

Romney thinks a federal law requiring health insurers to cover birth control is tyranny.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10335781-romney-calls-birth-control-rule-a-violation-of-conscience

Meanwhile, teen pregnancies are soaring in red states:

“Sex education is failing to reduce adolescent birthrates in conservative states, according to a new study … states with a majority conservative population and higher degree of religiosity tend to have higher teen birthrates. The findings suggest that the social structure of the state, such as the degree of conservatism, can undermine the effect of the sex curricula.”

It appears that while wingnuts are fucking the poor and minorities, their kids are fucking each other.

http://vitals.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10334156-sex-ed-less-effective-in-red-states-study-says

And finally, righties are criticizing the Superbowl ad Clint Eastwood did for Chrysler — why do wingnuts hate “American spirit”?

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10333435-eastwood-super-bowl-ad-for-chrysler-turning-into-a-political-football

6. Roger Rabbit spews:

“He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.”

And that’s after the unfair advantage small red states get in the electoral college! If we had a straight popular-vote election of the president, Romney would be crushed.

7. YLB spews:

Awwwww… Here’s a story that will make right wing dingies cry:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/06/scott-rasmussen-obama-very-likely-to-be-reelected-if-trends-continue/

Not that anything that comes out of the mouth of that bought and paid for schmuck should be trusted.

8. N in Seattle spews:

I’d like to believe that the recent poll shows that Granite Staters are returning to their senses. The beyond-wacky machinations of the current General Court (lower house of the legislature), such as the proposed Magna Carta basis for all state laws, have awakened popular attention to the awfulness of the GOP.

Hell, even the far-right Manchester Union-Leader casts scorn on the crazies in Concord.

9. Roger Rabbit spews:

@8 Given conservatives’ track record of ignoring anything in the Constitution that they find momentarily inconvenient (e.g., due process, right to jury trial, etc.), the Magna Carta wouldn’t fare any better, so why do they even bother? When you don’t believe in the rule of law, any document — regardless of what it’s called — its just a meaningless scrap of paper.

A Constitution or Magna Carta is no more meaningful than your willingness to impeach and remove an office holder of your own party for violating it.

10. Roger Rabbit spews:

@7 There are many pieces to the re-election puzzle, and most of them are lining up for Obama. The GOP is splintered, will have a weak and flawed nominee, faces voter backlash over its obstructionist behavior in Congress, and lacks a positive message. (They’re even bashing Clint Eastwood for talking about “American spirit”!) And wildcard events may work in Obama’s favor; for example, if war erupts with Iran, voters will be loathe to change commanders in chief. It just isn’t in the stars for the GOP to retake the W.H. this year, so if they’re smart, they’ll write off their presidential candidate and devote their resources to hanging onto as many House seats as possible and expanding their representation in the Senate.