Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.
Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.
|MT||Public Opinion Strategies||09-Jan||10-Jan||400||4.9||36||53||R+17|
Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.
The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!
The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)
With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.
|99.6% probability of winning||0.4% probability of winning|
|Mean of 335 electoral votes||Mean of 203 electoral votes|
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability
- 344 electoral votes with a 1.97% probability
- 345 electoral votes with a 1.94% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.6%, Romney wins 0.4%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 335.2 (22.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 202.8 (22.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (288, 382)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (156, 250)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|4||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.