Poll Analysis: Obama holds his lead over Romney

Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.

Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
MTPublic Opinion Strategies09-Jan10-Jan4004.93653R+17
NHU NH25-Jan02-Feb4954.45040O+10
NYSiena29-Jan01-Feb8073.46331O+32

Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.

The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!

ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12New Hampshire

The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)

With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.

ObamaRomney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 335 electoral votesMean of 203 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 329 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
  • 328 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 343 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability
  • 344 electoral votes with a 1.97% probability
  • 345 electoral votes with a 1.94% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.6%, Romney wins 0.4%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 335.2 (22.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 202.8 (22.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (288, 382)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (156, 250)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama63
Strong Obama205268
Leans Obama6060328
Weak Obama242424352
Weak Romney000186
Leans Romney3838186
Strong Romney87148
Safe Romney61

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
48VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111443 46.3 53.7 13.2 86.8
AR61*1744 40.4 59.6 0.0100.0
CA551*900 55.6 44.4 99.2 0.8
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 66.5 33.5
CT71*544 51.1 48.9 63.0 37.0
DE30*(100)(0)
DC30*(100)(0)
FL2966961 50.9 49.1 86.1 13.9
GA1611072 45.5 54.5 2.1 97.9
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*846 54.5 45.5 97.0 3.0
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*1277 54.1 45.9 97.8 2.2
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 7.3 92.7
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.8 93.2
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME41*586 56.3 43.7 98.6 1.4
MD100*(100)(0)
MA111*905 63.3 36.7100.0 0.0
MI161528 54.5 45.5 93.2 6.8
MN1011137 55.4 44.6 99.5 0.5
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101524 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
MT31356 40.4 59.6 0.4 99.6
NE21*658 42.7 57.3 0.5 99.5
NE111*269 50.6 49.4 55.0 45.0
NE211*204 45.6 54.4 18.7 81.3
NE311*185 29.2 70.8 0.0100.0
NV61*513 53.4 46.6 86.0 14.0
NH41446 55.6 44.4 95.0 5.0
NJ1411256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM51*455 58.2 41.8 99.4 0.6
NY2921273 65.1 34.9100.0 0.0
NC152971 49.0 51.0 33.6 66.4
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.4 99.6
OH1822130 52.1 47.9 91.3 8.7
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*464 54.7 45.3 92.3 7.7
PA201436 57.8 42.2 98.8 1.2
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.2 14.8
SD31*454 37.7 62.3 0.0100.0
TN111*1139 47.5 52.5 12.0 88.0
TX381637 46.2 53.8 8.9 91.1
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*1085 61.4 38.6100.0 0.0
VA131556 50.5 49.5 56.6 43.4
WA121*496 54.2 45.8 90.7 9.3
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI101616 54.5 45.5 94.6 5.4
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    rhp6033 spews:

    I am still skeptical about Virginia and S. Carolina going blue in this next election. I’d love to be surprised, however.

  2. 3

    spews:

    rhp6033,

    The SC results may well be a fluke (like, perhaps, the NH results). But that’s where the polls are at now. As I mention, a new SC poll is forthcoming.

    Virginia is a different story. Check out the polling history:
    ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12Virginia

    Except for one brief period, Obama has dominated in Virginia. The complication is that Romney gained the advantage around election time in 2011. If I had to bet now, I’d call VA a toss-up, but with a very slight edge for Obama.

  3. 5

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Romney thinks a federal law requiring health insurers to cover birth control is tyranny.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....conscience

    Meanwhile, teen pregnancies are soaring in red states:

    “Sex education is failing to reduce adolescent birthrates in conservative states, according to a new study … states with a majority conservative population and higher degree of religiosity tend to have higher teen birthrates. The findings suggest that the social structure of the state, such as the degree of conservatism, can undermine the effect of the sex curricula.”

    It appears that while wingnuts are fucking the poor and minorities, their kids are fucking each other.

    http://vitals.msnbc.msn.com/_n.....study-says

    And finally, righties are criticizing the Superbowl ad Clint Eastwood did for Chrysler — why do wingnuts hate “American spirit”?

    http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.co.....l-football

  4. 6

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.”

    And that’s after the unfair advantage small red states get in the electoral college! If we had a straight popular-vote election of the president, Romney would be crushed.

  5. 8

    spews:

    I’d like to believe that the recent poll shows that Granite Staters are returning to their senses. The beyond-wacky machinations of the current General Court (lower house of the legislature), such as the proposed Magna Carta basis for all state laws, have awakened popular attention to the awfulness of the GOP.

    Hell, even the far-right Manchester Union-Leader casts scorn on the crazies in Concord.

  6. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @8 Given conservatives’ track record of ignoring anything in the Constitution that they find momentarily inconvenient (e.g., due process, right to jury trial, etc.), the Magna Carta wouldn’t fare any better, so why do they even bother? When you don’t believe in the rule of law, any document — regardless of what it’s called — its just a meaningless scrap of paper.

    A Constitution or Magna Carta is no more meaningful than your willingness to impeach and remove an office holder of your own party for violating it.

  7. 10

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @7 There are many pieces to the re-election puzzle, and most of them are lining up for Obama. The GOP is splintered, will have a weak and flawed nominee, faces voter backlash over its obstructionist behavior in Congress, and lacks a positive message. (They’re even bashing Clint Eastwood for talking about “American spirit”!) And wildcard events may work in Obama’s favor; for example, if war erupts with Iran, voters will be loathe to change commanders in chief. It just isn’t in the stars for the GOP to retake the W.H. this year, so if they’re smart, they’ll write off their presidential candidate and devote their resources to hanging onto as many House seats as possible and expanding their representation in the Senate.