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On excluding polls

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/16/12, 12:22 pm

My goal for the polling analyses is to include all polls that legitimately provide insight into the race. For this reason, I want to comment on some polls that I have excluded from analysis.

As you know, I have predefined criteria on what polls can be included in my analyses. For example I exclude all on-line polls…period. And I exclude partisan polls that are selectively released. Typically this happens when a campaign releases a poll it commissioned. Even though the poll may be above reproach, including selectively released polls introduces bias to the meta-analysis of polls.

To see why, imagine a neck-in-neck race between Republican Bob and Democrat Steve. Both campaigns do polling and, quite sensibly, release those that favor their candidate. Furthermore, suppose Crossroads GPS is very interested in Bob race, so they do a bunch of polling. Steve’s campaign does a dozen polls across the campaign, and they release the six polls that show Steve with a slight lead. Bob’s campaign is a little more poll-obsessed, and they do two-dozen polls and release the 12 polls that favor their candidate. On top of that, Crossroads GPS does and additional dozen polls and releases six that show Bob in the lead.

We can assume that individual polls are above reproach. Even so, the selective release means that at a typical point in the campaign, there will be about three polls showing Bob in the lead for every poll that shows Steve in the lead. The meta-analysis will show Bob leading in a race that is, in fact, a tie.

I bring this up because I’ve had to exclude a couple of polls from my analyses.

Yesterday, Wenzel Strategies released a poll for Missouri that showed Romney leading Obama, 54.9 to 41.1. The poll appears to be legitimate and I have no reason to believe the poll is biased or improperly done. In fact, Wenzel does something I really appreciate: they publish the counts of responses in addition to the percentages. I use the counts directly whenever possible, but aside from Survey USA, most pollsters just provide rounded percentages.

The Wenzel poll was conducted on behalf of Citizens United that:

…exists to support true conservative candidates running for federal office through direct candidate advocacy and contributions, based on our in-depth candidate research and surveys.

So, it is obviously a right-leaning organization. But that is not enough to exclude an organization’s polls. For example, the Civitas Institute is a right leaning think tank in North Carolina. I include their polls, because they pre-announce the polls, and release the results regardless of the outcome.

I though the Wenzel polls were okay, because they were released on the firm’s web site. But, I wanted to be sure. I made a call to Fritz Wenzel to ask him about it. What I learned was the following:

  1. The decision to publicly release the poll was made by his client, not him.
  2. He only published the results on his web site after the results had been released by his client.
  3. When I asked if he had done other polls for this client that had not been released, he deferred the question to his client.

From our discussion, I got the impression is that Mr. Wenzel is a serious pollster who takes pride in producing high quality polls for his clients. Even so, I’ll exclude this poll, since it appears to be a selective release by a highly partisan group.

Another poll I am excluding was brought to my attention by Sam Minter, for American Crossroads:

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

The ME-2 result is surprising but not a valid reason for exclusion. It is the selective nature of the poll’s release that results in exclusion. American Crossroads is engaging in good PR by releasing this information, but it isn’t likely to be representative of the polling overall. Granted, I did not call up the pollster, but the case for selective release seem pretty clear.

I point out these exclusions because I want to be as transparent about some decisions that may not, a first glance, be obvious.

Additionally, I’ll use this opportunity to ask for your help. If you see a poll I am including but shouldn’t, or a poll I’ve left out but should include, let me know. The best way is to make your case for inclusion or exclusion in a poll analysis comment thread.

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Poll Analysis: Obama slips some more

by Darryl — Monday, 10/15/12, 6:17 pm


Obama Romney
86.5% probability of winning 13.5% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes Mean of 250 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 295 to 243 electoral votes. The Monte Carlo simulation had Obama winning 93.9% of the elections, and Romney winning 6.1%.

The polls have been trickling in over the weekend and on Monday. At press time (which really means, “start running the analysis” time I was able to dig up 16 new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rocky Mountain 04-Oct 10-Oct 523 4.4 44 42 O+2
CO Gravis Marketing 05-Oct 11-Oct 2089 2.2 48.4 46.0 O+2.4
FL Gravis Marketing 13-Oct 14-Oct 617 4.0 48 49 R+1
FL PPP 12-Oct 14-Oct 791 3.4 48 49 R+1
GA Abt SRBI 08-Oct 12-Oct 706 5.3 43 51 R+8
ID Mason-Dixon 08-Oct 10-Oct 625 4.0 27 63 R+36
IA ARG 11-Oct 14-Oct 600 4.0 48 48 tie
NM Research & Polling 09-Oct 11-Oct 658 3.8 49 39 O+10
NC PPP 12-Oct 14-Oct 1084 3.0 47 49 R+2
NC High Point U 06-Oct 10-Oct 302 — 43 49 R+6
NC High Point U 29-Sep 04-Oct 291 — 49 40 O+9
OH PPP 12-Oct 13-Oct 880 3.3 51 46 O+5
PA PPP 12-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.4 51 44 O+7
PA Muhlenberg 10-Oct 14-Oct 438 5.0 47 44 O+3
SD Neilson Brothers 01-Oct 05-Oct 762 3.6 41.1 51.6 R+10.5
VA ARG 12-Oct 14-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1

A big surprise from a new poll in Arizona: it gives Obama a weak lead over Romney. It seems improbable, but there you have it. There are only two current polls in Arizona, and Romney is up by +9 in the other one. Consequently, Romney would be expected to win the state with an 84% probability.

Colorado has Obama up by +2.4% over Romney in today’s poll. With eight current polls weighing in, the state is pretty close to a tie. Romney would be expected to win the state now with a 60% probability. Here is the trend:
ObamaRomney15Sep12-15Oct12Colorado

Romney takes a +1% lead in both of the new Florida polls. Overall, he has a 87% probability of winning the state in an election held today.

We finally get an Idaho poll, and Romney leads Obama by +36%. Now we know why nobody wants to poll in the state.

Iowa is all tied up at 48% in today’s poll. But Obama leads in the only other current poll, so he ends up with a 59% chance of winning at this point.

The new New Mexico poll puts Obama up by a solid +10%—a margin right in line with the other two current polls.

There are three new polls for North Carolina, but notice that the High Point University polls include a pre-debate poll, where Obama leads, and a post debate poll, where Romney leads. He also leads in the third new poll (which is post debate). The current polls, taken together, give Romney a 97% chance of winning now. Romney has clearly recaptured the lead he held in August:

ObamaRomney15Sep12-15Oct12North Carolina

Ohio puts Obama up by +5% in today’s poll. The collection of 10 Ohio polls give Obama a +2% and 85% probability of taking the state in an election now. The long-term trend shows something of a dip in Obama’s lead, but not enough to tie up the state or give the lead to Romney.

ObamaRomney15Sep12-15Oct12Ohio

Obama’s lead in two new Pennsylvania polls. Overall, Obama wins all ten of the current polls. That makes 37 consecutive polls that have gone to Obama, all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Romney a +1% lead in the current poll. Romney leads in five of eight current polls and there is also a tie in one poll. Oddly enough because Obama leads more strongly in one large poll, he gets a slight overall advantage, with a 54% chance of winning an election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 86,465 times and Romney wins 13,535 times (including the 1,003 ties). Obama receives (on average) 288 (-7) to Romney’s 250 (+7) electoral votes. Obama has a 86.5% (-7.4%) probability of winning and Romney has a 13.5% (+7.4%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 15 Oct 2011 to 15 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/13/12, 12:29 am

Stephen Colbert: Obama’s secret martian gayness.

Mark Fiore: It’s the Foreign Policy, Stupid!.

Young Turks: “Some girls rape easy,” says idiot politician.

Colbert: The 7-11/Pizza Hut election (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Bad Lip Reading: The first debate.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: GOP Rep. who cut embassy security funds blames Obama for embassy attack.

Young Turks: Pro-life Rep. demands abortion for his mistress.

Willard (and Eddie)!

  • Big Dog: Welcome back, Moderate Mitt!
  • Martin Bashir: Mitt Romney’s multiple-choice abortion gymnastics
  • Young Turks: Romney’s many views on abortion.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt repeats his “trickle-down government” line.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Missouri edition:
  • Mitt: debates himself:
  • Selma Blair: The woman for Mitt Romney.
  • Sarah Silverman and friends: The truth matters
  • Young Turks: Romney on healthcare, “Uninsured don’t just die…It’s paid for”.
  • Martin Bashir: Ryan’s narcissism on display.
  • Slate: Mitt’s twisted words on abortion.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt flip-flops his way up the polls.
  • Sharpton: Mitt introduces “statesman” nut job Glenn Beck in 2009.
  • Sam Seder: Ryan gets testy in interview
  • Slate: Ryan walks out on interview in Michigan
  • The Romney—Ryan strategy
  • Bad Lip Reading of Ryan’s video diaries:

Jon: “Fucking crazy” GOP candidates .

Richard Alley on Abraham Lincoln and the Founding of the National Academy of Sciences.

Barely Political: Redneck political coverage.

Jim Lehrer: Badass moderator.

Ann Telnaes: Child Marriage.

Rob McKenna puts his dancing shoes on.

Grandpa versus Eddie Munster:

  • Young Turks: Media opinion on who won.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: The VP debate.
  • Jenn: Paul Ryan challenges the truth to a debate and loses
  • Maddow: On the debate and Ryan’s “principles”
  • Maddow: More on Paul Ryan’s “principles”
  • Cenk and Jenn: VP Debate from mirth to malarkey; laughing Joe.
  • Sam Seder: Biden destroys Ryan.
  • Cenk moderates another kind of debate.
  • Jen: Judging the VP debate
  • What Biden was thinking.
  • Somebody laughs too freakin’ much!
  • Biden’s debate.
  • Jenn: Exposing Ryan’s “six studies” lie.
  • Rachael Maddow and Ezra Klein: Factchecking the debate.
  • Young Turks: FAUX News’ “trail of tears”
  • Autotune the debate.
  • The presidential staff debates

Kid President’s guide to being a party.

White House: West Wing Week.

Slate: Rape victims have a message for Todd Akin.

Liberal Viewer: When is Stephen Colbert joking?

Lisa Brown and Maria Cantwell channel SNL for Marcus Riccelli:

Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Poll are so worthless but so quotable (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama drops below 300 electoral votes

by Darryl — Friday, 10/12/12, 3:49 pm


Obama Romney
93.9% probability of winning 6.1% probability of winning
Mean of 295 electoral votes Mean of 243 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Monte Carlo analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 303 to 235 electoral votes. If an election was held then, we would expect Obama to win with a 95.7% probability, and Romney with a 4.3% probability. Since Obama’s probability is greater than 95%, standard statistical reasoning would call Obama’s lead “statistically significant.”

Today there were lots of new polls released.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Pepperdine U 07-Oct 10-Oct 831 3.4 54.0 32.9 O+21.1
CA SurveyUSA 07-Oct 09-Oct 539 4.3 53 39 O+14
CO SurveyUSA 09-Oct 10-Oct 614 4.0 47 48 R+1
CO Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1254 3.0 47 48 R+1
FL Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 750 4.0 47 51 R+4
FL ARG 08-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 46 49 R+3
FL Mason-Dixon 08-Oct 10-Oct 800 3.5 44 51 R+7
FL Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 988 3.1 48 47 O+1
IL Tribune WGN 04-Oct 08-Oct 700 3.7 55 36 O+19
MA PPP 09-Oct 11-Oct 1051 3.0 55 41 O+14
MI Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 500 4.5 52 45 O+7
MI Glengariff Group 06-Oct 08-Oct 600 4.0 49.0 42.3 O+6.7
MI Gravis Marketing 05-Oct 08-Oct 1122 3.2 46.0 44.4 O+1.6
MT PPP 08-Oct 10-Oct 737 3.6 41 52 R+11
MT MSU-Billings 27-Sep 30-Sep 477 5.0 35 49 R+14
NV PPP 08-Oct 10-Oct 594 4.0 51 47 O+4
NV Suffolk 06-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.4 46.8 45.2 O+1.6
NH ARG 09-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 46 50 R+4
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 04-Oct 08-Oct 604 4.0 51 40 O+11
NC Rasmussen 09-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.5 48 51 R+3
OH Rasmussen 10-Oct 10-Oct 750 4.0 48 47 O+1
OH Gravis Marketing 06-Oct 10-Oct 1313 2.7 45.1 45.9 R+0.8
OH Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 994 3.1 51 45 O+6
OH Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 47 46 O+1
PA Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 47 45 O+2
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 04-Oct 08-Oct 600 4.0 50 42 O+8
VA Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 750 4.0 47 49 R+2
VA Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 981 3.1 47 48 R+1
VA Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 48 48 tie
VA Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1288 3.0 51 46 O+5
WI Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 50 46 O+4
WI Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1327 3.0 50 47 O+3

Colorado turns red with the addition of two new polls that give Romney a +1% edge. Romney leads in five of seven current polls and has a 75% probability of taking the state now.

Three new Florida polls, also give Romney the edge. He leads Obama in five of the ten current polls, but by larger margins. Taken together, the simulation gives Romney a 76% chance of winning Florida now. Here’s the last three months:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Florida

Michigan voters seem content to supports Obama, if these three polls are representative. All five current polls go to Obama and they average out to a mid-single digit lead. The larger picture shows Obama with a pretty solid advantage:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Michigan

Two new Nevada polls give Obama weak leads. In fact, Romney doesn’t lead in any of the five current polls, although one poll had the candidates tied. Taken together, Obama get a 74% probability of taking the state now.

A new New Hampshire poll goes surprisingly strongly for Romney—by +4%. The previous poll was a tie, and the oldest current poll has Obama up by a comfortable +15%. But fair warning: That poll was taken before the presidential debate! New Hampshire is definitely worth watching at this point. Here is the rather abrupt change in a picture:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12New Hampshire

Only one new North Carolina poll that puts Romney over Obama by +3%. Romney leads in three of the six current polls and all three post-presidential debate polls.

Four new Ohio polls split 3 to 1 for Obama. The President leads in 8 of 12 current polls. If the election was held now, the model predicts Obama would win Ohio with a 91% probability.

Pennsylvania is even stronger for Obama, who takes both of the new polls. Obama leads in all five of the current polls, and would be expected to win Pennsylvania now with a 94% probability.

Three Virginia polls give three results: a tie and a win for each candidate. When the current polls. are combined, Obama takes 50.4% of the pooled “votes”. And that translates into a 69% probability of winning an election right now. Here is the story in picture form:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Virginia

Two new Wisconsin polls give Obama weak leads (+2% and +4%) over Romney. Obama’s lead has been cut from double digits just before the debate to about a +4% advantage. But the results give Obama a 98.4% probability of winning the state right now. The picture shows Obama with consistent lead in the state, if by a reduced margin:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Wisconsin

When these new polls are added to the mix, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama the win 93,914 times and Romney, 6,086 times (including the 901 ties). Obama receives (on average) 295 (-8) to Romney’s 243 (+8) electoral votes. If an election was held today, we’d expect Obama to win with a 93.9% (-1.8%) probability. Romney would have a 6.1% (+1.8%) probability of winning. By standard statistical reasoning, Obama’s lead is no longer “statistical significant.”

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2011 to 12 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Essentially, Mitt Romney rebounded back to where he was just after the Republican convention.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Gubernatorial Debate

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/11/12, 9:00 pm

Former congressman Jay Inslee is going to debate Washington AG Rob McKenna in a couple of minutes. The Ale House will give me picture, but no audio. And I haven’t found the audio feed on my radio yet, but here is a thread for you to offer your own thoughts.

Have at it!

9:01: It sounds like KUOW really does have it on tonight. Bonus. In fact, I cannot see what is going on, but I can hear it, thanks to the miracle of the transistor (radio)!

9:03: McKenna refers to this debate as an “unprecedented event.” I don’t think it is quite that unique!

9:05: First question…what will you cut if we have a new recession? Ummm…isn’t the economy getting noticeably better?

9:07: So far, both candidates have been regurgitated talking points. Comeon guys…mix it up a bit. I already heard this debate.

9:10: How will each candidate meet the $4 billion court ordered funding level:

McKenna: Well…we can do it a bit at a time by some magic voodoo method.

Inslee: We can do it…by increasing percentage of budget going to education.

9:15: Inslee goes on the attack calling McKenna’s proposal a “gimmick.” Topic changes. The judges hold up a “Jay +1” sign.

9:17: Rob McKenna wants a level playing field for all businesses. That sure sounds like SOCIALISM to me.

9:19: Jay points out that Washington state gets ranked as one of the best places to have a business. Yes.

9:20: Early learning. McKenna wants to extend it to nursing visits for pregnant moms. Okay…I guess we can call that “early learning”. McKenna points out that many kindergartners are not prepared for kindergarten. WTF?????

9:23: Inslee has been advocating for early learning since 1980 (when McKenna was an adolescent). Good point!

9:24: Come to think of it, McKenna may STILL be an adolescent.

9:25: Inslee went to church in Seattle today where there were beautiful children. (Oops…out of time)

9:26: The TeeVee tells me that Detroit is kicking Oakland’s ass.

9:29: Fuck…this is boring. I want JOE!!!!

9:30: Inslee: Women should have access to contraceptive services (and men, for that matter).

9:31: Inslee supports marriage equality. McKenna…not so much.

9:34: McKenna starts doing metacommentary…

9:35: I see men hugging men on TeeVee. It isn’t a Dan Savage special…it’s PROFESSIONAL SPORTS!

9:37: Pot: Jay will vote no, but will uphold the will of the voters.

9:40: Pot: Rob…not so much.

9:41: Time out for a sec. GAWD…I cannot express how unappealing I find McKenna…WHAT A FUCKING WHINING, SNIVELING, GEEKY, SICKLY DWEEB. Okay…back to normal….

9:45: McKenna would operate in a “bipartisan fashon”. Yeah. Like being a founding principle in the failed state AG lawsuit against “Obamacare.”

9:49: On Gun Control: Inslee wants a zero-tolerance policy on violence. Complements his opponent on making progress in this area.

9:54: Inslee hits McKenna on that stupid “Old men sitting in a diner complaining about taxes” ad. I guess that’s okay, but that add is so amateurish that he didn’t really need to waste the words.

9:56: Closing statements. Fucking yeah!!!!

Take home message: McKenna is a congenital whiner. He can’t help it—it’s in his DNA. As a good liberal, I shouldn’t discriminate against him for it. But FUCK, IS HE FUCKING ANNOYING!!!!

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VP Debate thread

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/11/12, 5:27 pm

Vice President Joe Biden faces off with Congressman Paul Ryan this evening at 6:00 PM. I’m about a mile from the Montlake Ale House in stop and go traffic, blogging while stopped.

If you can, please join the debate party at the Ale House.

6:03: [Darryl] GAME ON!

6:04: [Darryl] Paul Ryan lies on his second sentence. He says it took 2 weeks to call it a terrorist attack. In fact, Obama called it a terrorist attack the day after.

6:07: [Darryl] Whoa…Paul Ryan goes off into La La land…

6:07 [Carl] Ryan is annoying as fuck. Whenever someone says “Apologize for America” I want to scream.

6:10: [Darryl] Biden stumbles at the end of a good build-up, but essentially he successfully defended Ryan’s “weakness” bullshit.

6:12: [Darryl] Did anyone bother to prep. Ryan on the news of the day: (1) The Benghazi consulate was a CIA outpost, and (2) Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) Republicans cut funding for state dept. security.

6:13: [Carl] Moderator: “There’s no bigger national security issue than Iran.” Loose nukes?

6:17: [Darryl] Paul Ryan channels the Ayatollahs! That’s probably easy for him—you know, another reactionary religious fanatic.

6:17 [Carl] Ryan: “They’re spinning their centrifuges faster.” Is that the issue? I don’t know nuclear issues.

6:20: [Darryl] Biden calls Ryan on THE BIG MYTH: Iran is building a weapon. They aren’t.

6:23: [Darryl] Joe gets the last word: “This President doesn’t bluff!”

6:26: [Darryl] Joe gets to do a passionate stump speech. Ryan comes back by suggesting unemployment is getting worse!?! Does he think he can get away with that?

6:28: [Darryl] Ryan inserted a canned anecdote but it isn’t clear what it has to do with anything!

6:29: [Darryl] Joe gives his own death anecdote (a much more personal one), but it is ALSO off topic. These Bozos need to read the fucking COMMENT POLICY!

6:30: [Darryl] Mmmmm…Green Pork!

6:33: [Darryl] I’m probably biased, but from what I see, Biden is cleaning up when he points out that Ryan wrote advocating for stimulus funds.

6:36: [Darryl] I just figured out that Carl Ballard was trying to co-blog with me (virtually). So I updated with his queued stuff. Sorry Carl!

6:38: [Darryl] “Folks, follow your instincts on this one” — Joe Biden on the Ryan Medicare Voucher program.

6:39: [Darryl] Ryan: “They were caught with their hands in the cookie jar to fund ObamaCare”. Ummm…that is a very creative way of spinning cost savings that you, yourself proposed.

6:41: [Carl] When Ryan says he worked with “an Oregon Senator” that Oregon Senator already called him a liar.

6:43: [Darryl] Joe will not let young Eddie Munster get away with anything!

6:45: [Darryl] Paul Ryan’s hair is sweating something fierce!

6:47: [Darryl]: Shorter Ryan: Tax cuts for the wealthy will grow the economy! Didn’t we try that for 8 miserable years that ended in an economic calamity???

6:46: [Carl] I’m listening to this on the radio, like when I thought Obama did fine, but I think Biden is winning.

6:49: [Darryl] Ryan repeats Mitt’s lie about the “six studies” that support their “math”. Note to Republicans: Editorials don’t count as “studies”.

6:52: [Darryl] Biden is more effective on criticizing the Romney/Ryan tax program because he feeds specifics right back at Ryan. I don’t think Ryan is used to people seeing through his bullshit so easily.

6:54: [Darryl] The moderator said something about “math”! The Wingnut “BIAS” shitstorm begins in 3, 2, 1…

6:52: [Carl] The deficits are the least to worry about when the economy is on the rocks.

6:57: [Darryl] Now that I know that Paul Ryan sat with a Native American in Afghanistan in 2002 I may have to rethink this whole “voting for Obama” thing!!!

6:57: [Carl] Finally an hour into the second debate, we can mention the war.

7:02: [Darryl] Ryan tries to equivocate between keeping the deadline but not “emboldening our enemies” by giving a deadline.

7:01: [Carl] Ryan fucked up his growing abroad / not at home zinger. Parallel construction isn’t that tough.

7:05: [Darryl] Fuck…I’m voting for JOE!

7:07: [Darryl] Paul Ryan gets into some bizarre head movements while talking about fighting seasons. That’ll make for some fun YouTube remixes!

7:09: [Darryl] Sheesh…I’m pretty fucking sick of Biden making gaffe after gaffe….

7:10: [Darryl] Oops. I meant “pummel”, not gaffe.

7:11: [Carl] This anti-UN stuff from Ryan is making me think he hasn’t read Romney’s book where he praises the UN.

7:13: [Darryl] There are only 13 people in the world who knows Romney praises the UN in his book…and OUR Carl Ballard is one of them!

7:14: [Darryl] Ryan is pro-life because of “science”. Ryan saw a heartbeat in a itty bitty bean. That makes him believe life begins at conception. (Note: It doesn’t…a sperm and an egg are as alive as a fertilized egg.) So, I’m not sure where the science come into it.

7:14 [Carl] Remember when all of our trolls said Obama was making a mistake keeping Biden?

7:16 [Carl] I’m glad they’re talking about abortion, but throwing Catholicism in there is dumb.

7:18: [Darryl] Biden also believes that life begins at conception. But HE DOESN’T CLAIM THAT IS SCIENCE.

7:19: [Darryl] Ryan disses one entire branch of our government with his “unelected judges” comment. Why does he hate the Constitution? I mean if Jesus wanted judges elected he would have put it in the Constitution!!!

7:24: [Darryl] The candidates are asked about the nasty tone of the campaign. When Ryan goes, he launches into a nasty tirade. BIG TIME FAIL!

7:26: [Darryl] I remember just the other day…I was walking down the street and some homeless, runaway debt crisis tackled me! FUCK those tackling debt crises.

7:21 [Carl] So, looks like one abortion question, and it looks like there won’t be anything about the Violence Against Women Act being held up and only talked a little around birth control. Hard to believe that women are 52% of the population and are allowed to vote in this country.

7:29: [Darryl] Closing time…every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.

7:30: [Darryl] Ryan accuses Obama of “higher taxes”. NOT TRUE. BIG LIE.

7:32: [Darryl] Ryan asks me for my vote. “Fuck no…I’m voting JOE!”

It’s over. I’d be a big supporter of Paul Ryan if I wanted to invade Syria and Nuke Iran. Woooooohoooo…Bush-style Cowboy diplomacy all over again!!!!!

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An now, a word from the Big Dog….

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/11/12, 10:08 am

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Special Debate Night Edition of Drinking Liberally

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/10/12, 10:55 pm

Join us for an evening of drinks, conversation and political debate at a special Debate Night Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally. The event is Thursday evening.

There are two debates to watch: the VP debate between VP Joe Biden (D) and Congressman Paul Ryan (R), followed by a gubernatorial debate between former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and Washington AG Rob McKenna (R).

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the VP debate begins at 6:00pm.

Note: We will have picture and audio for the VP debate. But for the gubernatorial debate, we’ll have the picture, but no sound. If you are serious about listening to the debate, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Even the VP debate my be hard to hear with the background noise. I believe KUOW will be broadcasting the debates. Additionally, the Montlake Alehouse has free WiFi. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be live blogging (with Carl Ballard, I believe) from the Ale House. I hope you can join us.

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On the interesting statement from Suffolk University…

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/10/12, 9:17 pm

In the comment thread this evening, Serial Conservative asked me to comment on this:

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

It pains me to have to admit…I’m with Bill O’Reilly on this one:

Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly seemed perplexed, and asked Paleologos if he was certain those three states were already in the bag for Romney.

Here’s Mr. Paleologos’ reasoning:

“That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded.
“A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be.

“So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded.

Whoa…hold on there a sec, Bucky! This poll?

Obama was LEADING in Florida. Not behind. Not tied. But leading by +3%.

A straightforward reading of that evidence suggests Obama was in the stronger position. But, Paleologos felt it was bad that Obama didn’t have 50%.

Two problems. First, 46% to 43% Obama lead did not include leaners. The poll actually did assessed leaners, though, and when you include them Obama is at 48%.

On top of that, the poll included 10 additional 3rd party or independent candidates! Those candidates got 2.5% of the “votes.” So…in a close state, where the scale for the two major party candidates goes from 0% to 97.5%, the middle of the scale is 48.75%, and Obama got 48%. That’s pretty fucking close to half the available votes.

Moreover, in this poll, Obama beat Romney in favorability 51% to 45%.

Really…this “theory” by Paleologos seem pretty fucking far fetched to me.

The story is not too dissimilar in Virginia. The last Suffolk poll had Obama leading Romney, 46% to 44%. With leaners, it was a 46.5% to 44.8% race. There were three third-party candidates on the ballot that took 2.2% of the “votes” away. And, again, Obama beat Romney in favorability, 52% to 42%.

Once again, it is pretty fucking bizarre to use this poll to argue that Obama will lose the state.

And here’s the bizarre thing about North Carolina: Suffolk hasn’t done any North Carolina polling. I don’t find them in my database, RCP doesn’t have ’em either. I’ve checked with a few online polling aggregation sites, and find no evidence that Suffolk has done any polling in the state. I guess this means he is relying on other people’s polls (OPP, as we say in the biz).

So let’s look at OPP in Florida for the past two months:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Florida

A plain reading of this graph suggests that Obama took the lead from Romney by mid-September and held a pretty solid lead until the post-debate period. And then it looks pretty much like a tie. My most recent analysis gives Obama a 54.9% chance of winning the state now, based on the last six polls in the state.

And now for some OPP from Virginia over the past two months:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Virginia

Really, Virginia shows an identical pattern. Indeed, my Monte Carlo analysis puts the race in Virginia at a tie right at the moment.

And North Carolina with two months of OPP:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12North Carolina

It looks like Obama led from mid-September to late September. The two October polls give Romney the lead, for sure, but a “certain win”? Well…Romney would have a 95% probability of winning the state in an election held now, according to my analysis of this polling evidence.

I can buy an argument the Romney is likely to take North Carolina. But he has a bit of work to do before it is a “sure thing.” For Florida and Virginia, only a fool could look at this collection of evidence objectively and find a “certain” win for either candidate. These two states are very close right now. More polling is needed, not less!

So I don’t know what the hell David Paleologos was babbling about. It seems illogical. You know…an opinion that is free from being encumbered by evidence.

The worst part: I’m still creeped out by finding myself in agreement with Bill O’Reilly. I mean, what the fuck?!?

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Poll Analysis: Romney surges

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/10/12, 3:33 pm


Obama Romney
95.7% probability of winning 4.3% probability of winning
Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis (three days ago) showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 342 to 196 electoral votes. I was using a 21 day “current poll” window, but promised a shorter one soon. I had previously decided to switch to a 14 day “current poll” window on the 10th of this month, and that is today.

So, for comparison, using a 14 day window three days ago we had Obama leading Romney 316 to 222 electoral votes, and a 99.2% probability of winning an election held then.

Over the past three days, we have 32 new polls that cover 20 states plus each of Maine’s two congressional districts. Most of the polls are post-first-debate. Here are the details:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Rasmussen 07-Oct 07-Oct 500 4.5 49 48 O+1
CO ARG 05-Oct 08-Oct 500 4.0 46 50 R+4
CT Rasmussen 07-Oct 07-Oct 500 4.5 51 45 O+6
FL UNF 01-Oct 09-Oct 653 3.5 49 45 O+4
IA Rasmussen 07-Oct 07-Oct 500 4.5 49 47 O+2
LA Magellan Strategies 02-Oct 08-Oct 2682 1.9 36 59 R+23
ME Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep 28-Sep 400 4.9 50.8 36.8 O+14.0
ME1 Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep 28-Sep 200 — 52.5 35.4 O+17.1
ME2 Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep 28-Sep 200 — 49.0 38.1 O+10.9
MA WBUR 05-Oct 07-Oct 501 4.4 52 36 O+16
MA UMass 02-Oct 08-Oct 437 5.0 55 34 O+21
MA WNEU 28-Sep 04-Oct 440 4.7 63 33 O+30
MI EPIC/MRA 04-Oct 06-Oct 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
MI Baydoun 05-Oct 05-Oct 1122 2.9 49.3 45.8 O+3.5
MN PPP 05-Oct 08-Oct 937 3.2 53 43 O+10
MT PPP 08-Oct 10-Oct 737 3.6 41 52 R+11
NV Rasmussen 08-Oct 08-Oct 500 4.5 47 47 tie
NV SurveyUSA 03-Oct 08-Oct 1222 2.9 47 46 O+1
NH Rasmussen 09-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.5 48 48 tie
NM Rasmussen 08-Oct 08-Oct 500 4.5 54 43 O+11
NC Gravis Marketing 06-Oct 08-Oct 1325 2.9 41.2 49.9 R+8.7
ND Mason-Dixon 03-Oct 05-Oct 625 4.0 40 54 R+14
OH SurveyUSA 05-Oct 08-Oct 808 3.5 45.3 44.1 O+1.2
OH CNN/OR 05-Oct 08-Oct 722 3.5 51 47 O+4
OH ARG 05-Oct 08-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
OH Wenzel 04-Oct 05-Oct 1072 3.0 47.3 48.0 R+0.7
PA Rasmussen 09-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.5 51 46 O+5
PA Susquehanna 04-Oct 06-Oct 725 3.7 47.3 45.4 O+1.9
PA Siena 01-Oct 05-Oct 545 4.2 43 40 O+3
RI Brown U 26-Sep 05-Oct 496 4.4 58.2 32.3 O+25.9
VA PPP 04-Oct 07-Oct 725 3.7 50 47 O+3
WI Rasmussen 09-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.5 51 49 O+2

The candidates split the Colorado polls, with +1% for Obama and a +4 for Romney. The current polls split three to three between the candidates, giving Romney a very slight edge—a 53% probability of taking the state if the election was now. This is a pretty significant shift as can be seen from the polling history over the past three months:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Colorado

One new Florida poll has Romney up by +4%. Obama takes four of the six current polls and ends up with a slight edge of a 55% probability of winning now.

Obama gets another small Iowa lead, this time by +2%. He is down to an 85% probability of winning an election now. A week ago, that was a 99% probability….

Obama also holds a small +3% lead in the two new Michigan polls. That is a big drop from the double digit lead he has in the oldest current poll. Still, the evidence suggests Obama would take Michigan in an election now.

Minnesota gives Obama a double digit lead (+10%) in the only post-debate poll for the state.

Romney maintains his strong lead in Montana with this new poll.

Two very close Nevada polls taken together give Obama a very slight lead. Three of the four current polls were taken after the debate and show a very small Obama advantage. The oldest current poll gives Obama a +10%. Here is another view:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Nevada

Today’s New Hampshire poll has Obama and Romney tied up. This new poll is the only post-debate poll of the three current polls.

New Mexico gives Obama a solid +11% lead over Romney. Essentially, this is as good as Obama was doing before the Debate.

In North Carolina, Romney leads Obama by a single-digit +8.7%. Romney takes three of the five current polls, including both post-debate polls. Romney has a 95% chance in the state for an election now.

Four new polls in Ohio split between Obama and Romney. Combined with four other current polls, Obama ends up with an 86% probability in an election now. Here’s the picture:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Ohio

Obama keeps the lead in the three new Pennsylvania polls, albeit by smaller margins than he had pre-debate:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Pennsylvania

Obama leads in the latest Virginia poll. Combined with three other current polls we have a dead even race in the state. The polling history tells the post-debate story:

ObamaRomney10Sep12-10Oct12Virginia

Obama maintains a weak +2% lead in Wisconsin, where his chances in the state have dropped to 97% for an election now.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections using a 21 day window, Obama wins 95,666 times and Romney wins 4,334 times (and he get the 347 ties). Obama receives (on average) 303 (-13) to Romney’s 235 (+13) electoral votes. In an election held now, we could expect Obama to win with a 95.7% (-3.5%) probability of winning. That is, Romney surges to a 4.3% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2011 to 10 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/9/12, 3:30 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.



Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet. On Wednesday, the Bellingham chapter meets, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. And on Monday, the Yakima and Olympia chapters meet.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Poll Analysis: The post-debate polls trickle in

by Darryl — Sunday, 10/7/12, 2:39 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 342 electoral votes Mean of 196 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

A rather paltry 15 new polls covering 10 states have been released since my previous analysis. What makes this new batch of polls interesting is that most of them are post-first-debate polls. And looking at them, it’s clear that Romney will get either a boost or a bump from the polls. (My prediction was that Romney would get an acute advantage, but a long term disadvantage from the debates—it’s simply to early to test that prediction.)

Here are the polls, including some in seven or eight swing states:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO U Denver 04-Oct 05-Oct 605 4.0 47 43 O+4
CO Gravis Marketing 03-Oct 04-Oct 1438 2.8 45.9 49.4 R+3.5
CO McLaughlin 30-Sep 02-Oct 300 5.7 46 50 R+4
CT Quinnipiac 28-Sep 02-Oct 1696 2.4 54 42 O+12
FL Rasmussen 04-Oct 04-Oct 500 4.5 47 49 R+2
FL WeAskAmerica 04-Oct 04-Oct 1200 3.0 46 49 R+3
HI Civil Beat 26-Sep 28-Sep 1684 2.4 62 30 O+32
MO Rasmussen 02-Oct 02-Oct 500 4.5 46 49 R+3
NV Gravis Marketing 03-Oct 03-Oct 1006 3.1 48.9 47.8 O+1.1
NM PPP 02-Oct 03-Oct 778 — 52 43 O+9
OH Rasmussen 04-Oct 04-Oct 500 4.5 50 49 O+1
OH WeAskAmerica 04-Oct 04-Oct 1200 3.0 46 47 R+1
VA Rasmussen 04-Oct 04-Oct 500 4.5 48 49 R+1
VA WeAskAmerica 04-Oct 04-Oct 1200 3.0 45 48 R+3
WI PPP 04-Oct 06-Oct 979 3.1 49 47 O+2

Before the debate, Obama had lend in 5 consecutive Colorado polls, but by margins of from 3% to 6%. Now Romney takes two of the three new polls and three of nine current polls (currently defined as polls taken in the past three weeks). Obama’s goes from winning 97% to 91% of the simulated elections.

In Florida, Romney leads Obama in two new post-debate polls, albeit by small margins. With fourteen current polls, and the fact that two polls aged out—one that barely went to Romney and one that was weak for Obama—there is almost no difference in the projected outcome of an election held now for Florida.

In Missouri, Romney leads Obama by +3%, his smallest lead of the current polls. That causes his chances to drop from 100% to 99.9% in the state.

Obama barely leads in the new Nevada poll. The +1% is his weakest showing of the current polls, except for one late September tie. His chances drop from 99.5% to 99.2% as a consequence.

No sign that New Mexico is flipping over to Romney. Obama’s +9% lead is right up there with three other polls that were from +9% to +11%.

Two new polls in Ohio split between the candidates, and by +1% each. The WeAskAmerica poll is the only current poll, of ten, in which Romney leads. Obama still wins 100% of the simulated elections.

Romney take two of two Virginia polls. Prior to these polls, Romney lost 13 polls in a row, dating back to early September. But with Obama leading in the eight other current polls, his chances have dropped from 100% down to 99%.

Wisconsin is still in Obama’s column after the debate gives Obama a rather weak lead over Romney by +2%. This is Obama’s weakest showing among the current polls, but he still takes 100% of the simulated elections.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections informed only by state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 342 to Romney’s 196 electoral votes over the simulated elections. These are the identical numbers we had before. The results suggest that for an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Of course, the very abrupt change in momentum that we may end up seeing in the aftermath of the first debate is not fully represented in this analysis. My three week polling window smooths the results over three weeks. (The window will shrink to two weeks very soon.)

We can assess the race with less smoothing by shrinking that window. In the following table, I’ve shrunk the window a number of times. The results clearly show that Romney has gained the initiative in the short run, even if he still is the probable loser in an election held now:

Window
O-prob
R-prob
O-EV
R-EV
21 Days
100%
0%
342
196

14 Days

99.2%
0.8%
316
222
7 Days
94.5%
5.5%
299
239
5 Days
77.5%
22.5%
285
253
3 Days
90.7%
9.3%
293
245

Current poll windows below five days tend to start reversing the trend. Fewer polls become included as “current polls”, which means more older polls then get averaged in (at least with the modest pace of polling right now).

Romney’s peak chances occur by assuming only the post-debate polls, when available, should be used—that is, any prior strengths or weaknesses observed through polling in the recently polled states is entirely discarded. Romney peaks out at a 22.5% chance of winning an election held now under that scenario.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Oct 2011 to 07 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ). Even with a small handful of post-debate polls, we see Obama’s momentum stopped, and the uncertainty in outcome increased (that is, there is more spread between upper and lower 95% limits) .

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/6/12, 1:05 am

Liberal Viewer: Fox News lies about Libya attack response?

Thom: Right Wingers and the poll truthers.

Jonathan Mann: The Romney Shake It Up Song:

Thom and Pap: Koch front group seeks revenge against Florida Justices.

Debate:

  • Ann Telnaes: Romney shapes up for the debate
  • Jonathan Mann: Romney fires Big Bird:
  • Mitt’s debate: Mostly fiction.
  • Kay and Peele Luther on Obama’s first debate performance.
  • Jimmy Fallon joins the debate
  • Obama: Mitt was fact checked by his OWN CAMPAIGN! (via TalkingPointsMemo.)
  • Young Turks: Advice for Obama’s next debate.
  • Ann Telnaes: No mention of the 47% in first debate.
  • MockitTV: Obama and Romney make America great again
  • Young Turks: Why did Obama lose the first debate?
  • Big Bird responds.
  • Thom: Hey, Media, how can Romney lie all night and be “the winner?”
  • Sam Seder and Ari Berman: Mitt lies his way to a debate victory.
  • Mitt Romney: Protect big oil, fire Big Bird
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Debate!
  • Tweety and Louis Black: The day after the Denver debate
  • Conan: Mr. Romney and Mr. Bird.
  • The great Mitt Romney cheating conspiracy theory (multiple videos).
  • Maddow: History favors the challenger in first debates
  • Young Turks: Did Mitt cheat?
  • Sam Seder: No mention on 47% in the debate.
  • Stephen praises FAUX News for something important.
  • Martin Bashir: The two faces of Mitt Romney and John Sununu’s ugly remarks
  • Young Turks: Breaking down the debate.
  • Health care: Out of luck.
  • Ed and Pap: Republicans full of “Dog Hope” after debate
  • Tweety unloads over Obama’s performance (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Nobody won!
  • Young Turks: Some lies during the debate.
  • Jon: The Debate (via Political Wire).

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA):Evolution, Big Bang ‘Lies straight from The Pit Of Hell’

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Romney flip flops on his 47% comment!?!

George Takei: “We’ve got to be actively involved in the electoral process.”.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

  • Zina Saunders: Daryl Metcalfe Says You Don’t Deserve To Vote!.
  • Maddow: US court forces Ohio to reinstate early voting
  • Gavin Newsom with Rosario Dawson: Disenfranchised Latino vote is a major problem.
  • Sam Seder: PA Judge blocks GOP voter ID law
  • Maddow: Mixed messages on voter ID as Pa. slow to obey court
  • Mark Fiore: Voting with Right Wing Ralphie.

Steve Martin, home crafts expert, makes an endorsement:

White House: West Wing Week.

Thom: Has the GOP/Right Wing Media Jumped the Shark?

TEH NEW TRUFERISM:

  • The crackpot Jobs Numbers Truferism movement emerges. (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Maddow: Good jobs news drives right to delusion
  • Young Turks: The unemployment rate ‘conspiracy’
  • Romney campaign resists FAUX News’ Job Report Truferism (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Sam Seder: The Right Wing freak-out over jobs numbers.
  • The politics behind the jobs numbers

Ann Telnaes: The Supremes begin a new term.

Sam Seder: Rick Santorum Rick Santorum wants to kill and eat Big Bird.

Mitt Romney’s Disdain For The Middle Class: He Said It, He Meant It.

Young Turks: Tucker Carlson makes a fool of himself over 2007 Obama speech.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here (via TalkingPointsMemo).

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Post-debate thoughts

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/4/12, 3:37 pm

I left my home in Redmond at 6:00 pm yesterday for a trip to a destination a little outside of the little town of Carbonado, WA. The timing was pretty good for debate listening, as the traffic on I-405 meant I would hear most of the debate without a whole lot of interference from 60 MPH road noises. I caught just over an hour of the debate, as my aural sense was required for other tasks shortly after 7:00 pm.

Listening to the debate didn’t give me opportunity to see Obama’s “big crash”. Aurally, things simply did not come off all that negative for Obama. What stuck out for me was Mitt Romney doing two things:

  1. Back-peddling, flip-flopping, and pivoting away from the “severe conservative” positions he held during the G.O.P. debates. For the six or so years Romney has been running for President, he has given Americans a portrait of his positions that, oddly, differ greatly from his positions while running for Senate and while running for and being Governor of Massachusetts. Last night, the Etch-A-Sketch moment happened—Romney shook up the slate. He erased that mix of conservative, ALEC, and teabag-inspired positions that got him through the primary. Obama was dumbfounded—he probably was thinking what I was saying: “What the fuck, Mitt?!?”
  2. Lying. Romney repeatedly said things that are factually false—and did so with conviction and, well…swagger! Although Obama sometimes pointed out Romney’s “erroneous” statements, I think he was caught off guard by it a bit. He was probably thinking what I was saying, “What a FUCK, Mitt!”

When I turned off the radio shortly after 7:00 pm, my impression was that Obama came off as too timid, and should have been nailing Romney MUCH harder on his Etch-A-Sketching and untruthful statements. Timidity in a debate isn’t good unless your opponent is self destructing. And Romney wasn’t acutely self destructing.

But he was undergoing a chronic self-destruction. I mean, the media isn’t going to let him get away with lying and wholesale abandonment of the positions and policies he used to get through the primary, are they? In other words, after hearing the words each candidate was saying, I was pretty convinced that Romney had created some self-inflicted damage.

I didn’t get home until about Midnight, when I did a quick scan of the news feeds, only to learn that Obama got clobbered. Devastated. Destroyed.

Alas, I had a busy morning, so I didn’t look into it too much. Later, an Obama-supporting friend of mine on the East Coast emailed me a scathing critique of Obama, starting with an, apparently, disingenuous tribute to his and Michelle’s anniversary.

Huh! That opening bit sounded warm and genuine from the right lane of SR-520.

While eating lunch today, I spent a few minutes exploring the media reaction. I think David Frum helps me understand things:

Romney, the multimillionaire, arrived in a suit, shirt and tie that looked like they’d been purchased at Macy’s. I doubt he’ll ever wear them again, but for one night, he looked the way most non-zillionaires look when they dress for business. His manner was warm, engaged, and respectful. He looked at the president when the president spoke, and his expression revealed no asperity or disdain.

Oh shit! No wonder I couldn’t clearly see Mitt’s victory…I just couldn’t see his cheap suit, and where his eyes and Obama’s eyes were pointing. (I’ve mentioned during the G.O.P. debates about Mitt’s habit of staring attentively—almost artificially so—at his speaking opponent, so I can picture that.) Apparently, if I had watched the debate with the sound turned down, Mitt would be the hands-down winner.

The only problem: there were words spoken, as well. And while I agree that Obama didn’t attack Mitt nearly as effectively as he could have, that hardly compares to lying at Americans, right in their own living rooms—or cars. Or “disappearing” his long-held controversial positions, as if they’d never “happened.”

The problem for Romney is that a victory on style is ephemeral. The debate has left behind a record in the form of words. Going forward, he can lose the cheap suit, but will still be left with all those words…and they cheapen the whole package.

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Poll Analysis: Romney takes back a couple more

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/3/12, 3:09 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 342 electoral votes Mean of 196 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 344 to 194 electoral votes. Obama’s victory margin was “statistically significant,” as the analysis suggested he would win an election now with certainty.

There were a plethora of new polls released in the last couple of days. So now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, informed entirely by state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 342 (-2) to Romney’s 196 (+2) electoral votes.

This is two consecutive analyses in which Mitt Romney has gained electoral votes. Is this the end of the Convention bump for Obama? Will Romney be able to keep adding a couple of electoral votes a day?

If so, with 34 days to go, he’d still lose by five—with only 264 electoral votes. In other words, to win, Romney needs to shake loose more than two electoral votes a day, on average, through election day.

That’s the analysis. The big picture in this race can be seen from the time trends from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2011 to 03-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 7/25/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 7/25/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 7/23/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 7/22/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 7/21/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 7/18/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 7/18/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 7/16/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 7/15/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 7/14/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • EvergreenRailfan on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • G on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • DHS goes with ‘Good German’ defense on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • EvergreenRailfan on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
  • Not Really Dumbfuck on Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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