|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 344 electoral votes||Mean of 194 electoral votes|
Even Newer Update: There is a real North Dakota poll that has just been released. It shows Romney leading in N.D. by 51% to 39%. The poll fails my inclusion criteria because it was conducted on behalf of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party. But there you have it.
Newer Update: Okay…stuff should be fixed now.
Update: OOPS! As was pointed out in the comment thread, I accidentally “invented” a new poll that turned N.D. blue! Alas, it was an Ohio poll that got entered for the wrong state (and then entered again for Ohio). I’ll do a new analysis soon.
The analysis a few days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by, on average, 345 to 193 electoral votes. Since then, we’ve had a plethora of new polls released, and the result is a small gain for
Here are the new polls:
Romney continues to out poll Obama in Arizona. The three current polls, taken together, has Romney with a 95% probability of winning the state.
In Iowa, Obama leads by +4% in one poll and trails by -1% in another. Still, there are six Iowa polls taken in the past three weeks—Obama leads in four. Together they put Obama’s probability of taking the state (now) at 98%. Here is the last three months of polling:
Maine has Obama leading by +12% in the new poll. There is also a newly released Critical Insights poll that is a couple weeks old and has Obama up by +16. I didn’t see the poll until after the analyses were running; it’ll be included in subsequent analyses.
Obama hangs on to a small +3.8% in one new Michigan poll. Even so, Obama pulls over 50%. Another huge, but somewhat older, Michigan poll has Obama up by +9. With Obama leading in all eight current polls, by double digits in three of them, Obama is looking unbeatable in this state.
In Nevada, Obama’s lead is just +2% in the current poll. Romney hasn’t won any of the six current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 95% probability.
Two new New Hampshire polls have Obama up by +5% and +7%. These are Obama’s strongest showing, now giving him three of the four current polls. Romney’s chances in the state have shrunk to about 10%.
Another North Carolina poll goes Obama’s way, but by only a +2% edge. Obama now has a streak of four consecutive polls in his favor, and he takes four of the five current polls for the state. Here is what the last three months of polling look like graphically:
Two more Ohio polls go to Obama, who leads in all 12 of the polls taken over the past three weeks. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.6%. If the election was held now, we’d expect Obama to win by more than a +6% margin! Here’s the recent trend:
Pennsylvania shows, once again, that it isn’t a swing state. Obama’s +7% and +12% in the new polls fall in line with the rest of the ten current polls.
In Virginia, Obama has a puny +2% lead in two polls and a +6% lead in another. These polls make eleven taken in the past three weeks and Obama leads in every one of them. The analysis suggests Obama would win the hypothetical election now with certainty, even if by a smallish margin. The polling trend makes this apparent:
Last, but not least, we get a new Rasmussen poll in Washington, where Obama leads Romney by a solid +11%, and takes 52% of the vote. All three current polls are double digit leads for Obama…this new poll is the smallest lead.
Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, Obama receives (on average)
347 (+2) 344 (-1) to Romney’s 191 (-2) 194 (+1) electoral votes. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win a hypothetical election held now.
We can view the long term trend of this race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Sep 2011 to 30 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
Looking at the media electoral vote line (purple), we see that Obama’s position is
stronger than at any time in the past year tied with his strongest position over the past year (median of 347 electoral votes).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The most likely result from an election held now is either
350 or 351 347 or 348 electoral votes. The total fall a little short of the 365 electoral votes Obama received in 2008, but the graph shows that even 365 electoral votes isn’t entirely unattainable. On the other hand, Obama is exceedingly unlikely to receive under 300 electoral votes (as always, this refers to a hypothetical election held now).
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 347 electoral votes with a 17.34% probability
- 348 electoral votes with a 16.49% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 6.39% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 6.02% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 4.89% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 3.89% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 3.68% probability
- 346 electoral votes with a 2.81% probability
- 344 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 344.4 (10.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 193.6 (10.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 347 (324, 360)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 191 (178, 214)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.