Obama versus Romney using polls from 10-Oct-11 to 10-Oct-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.2% wins (166 wins ), Romney: 99.8% wins (99,834 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 13-Aug-12 16-Aug-12 452 4.6 35.4 54.0 R+18.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 5.5% wins (5,546 wins ), Romney: 94.5% wins (94,454 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Arizona 01-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 594 4.0 44.0 53.0 R+9.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPIC 09-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 995 4.4 53.0 39.0 O+14.0
Field Poll 06-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 891 3.4 58.0 34.0 O+24.0
SurveyUSA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 524 4.3 57.4 34.9 O+22.5


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 47.1% wins (47,114 wins ), Romney: 52.9% wins (52,886 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 07-Oct-12 07-Oct-12 500 4.5 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
ARG 05-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.0 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
U Denver 04-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 605 4.0 47.0 43.0 O+4.0
Gravis Marketing 03-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 1438 2.8 45.9 49.4 R+3.5
McLaughlin 30-Sep-12 02-Oct-12 300 5.7 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1273 2.8 49.3 45.5 O+3.8


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,999 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (1 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 07-Oct-12 07-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 45.0 O+6.0
Quinnipiac 28-Sep-12 02-Oct-12 1696 2.4 54.0 42.0 O+12.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Heart+Mind Strategies 26-Jul-12 29-Jul-12 100 --- 83.0 11.0 O+72.0


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 54.9% wins (54,888 wins ), Romney: 45.1% wins (45,112 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
UNF 01-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 653 3.5 49.0 45.0 O+4.0
Rasmussen 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 500 4.5 47.0 49.0 R+2.0
WeAskAmerica 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 1200 3.0 46.0 49.0 R+3.0
Marist 30-Sep-12 01-Oct-12 890 3.3 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Gravis Marketing 29-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 914 3.4 49.0 48.4 O+0.6
Suffolk 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 600 4.0 45.8 43.2 O+2.7


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (2 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,998 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
InsiderAdvangage 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 483 4.5 35.0 56.0 R+21.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Civil Beat 26-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 1684 2.4 62.0 30.0 O+32.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Southern Illinois U 04-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 1261 2.8 47.1 33.8 O+13.3
WeAskAmerica 05-Sep-12 05-Sep-12 1382 2.8 54.0 37.0 O+17.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.6% wins (602 wins ), Romney: 99.4% wins (99,398 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Bellweather Research 19-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 40.0 52.0 R+12.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 84.7% wins (84,713 wins ), Romney: 15.3% wins (15,287 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 07-Oct-12 07-Oct-12 500 4.5 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1273 2.8 47.5 43.7 O+3.8


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6
SurveyUSA 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 800 3.5 31.4 56.3 R+24.9


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.6% wins (563 wins ), Romney: 99.4% wins (99,437 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 606 4.1 39.0 53.0 R+14.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Magellan Strategies 02-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 2682 1.9 36.0 59.0 R+23.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 98.6% wins (98,553 wins ), Romney: 1.4% wins (1,447 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 400 4.9 50.8 36.8 O+14.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 96.7% wins (96,745 wins ), Romney: 3.3% wins (3,255 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 52.5 35.4 O+17.1


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 87.9% wins (87,855 wins ), Romney: 12.1% wins (12,145 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 49.0 38.1 O+10.9


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Baltimore Sun 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 804 3.5 57.0 34.0 O+23.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WBUR 05-Oct-12 07-Oct-12 501 4.4 52.0 36.0 O+16.0
UMass 02-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 437 5.0 55.0 34.0 O+21.0
WNEU 28-Sep-12 04-Oct-12 440 4.7 63.0 33.0 O+30.0
WBUR 26-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 504 4.4 60.0 32.0 O+28.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 99.5% wins (99,549 wins ), Romney: 0.5% wins (451 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
EPIC/MRA 04-Oct-12 06-Oct-12 600 4.0 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Baydoun 05-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 1122 2.9 49.3 45.8 O+3.5
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1064 3.1 52.0 39.9 O+12.1


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.8% wins (98,821 wins ), Romney: 1.2% wins (1,179 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 05-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 937 3.2 53.0 43.0 O+10.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 8.1% wins (8,133 wins ), Romney: 91.9% wins (91,867 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 02-Oct-12 02-Oct-12 500 4.5 46.0 49.0 R+3.0
PPP 01-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 700 3.7 45.0 51.0 R+6.0
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1145 2.9 44.5 47.7 R+3.2


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.7% wins (1,730 wins ), Romney: 98.3% wins (98,270 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 737 3.6 41.0 52.0 R+11.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 1.2% wins (1,202 wins ), Romney: 98.8% wins (98,798 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 40.0 51.0 R+11.0


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 10.5% wins (10,534 wins ), Romney: 89.5% wins (89,466 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 432 --- 41.0 49.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 50.4% wins (50,353 wins ), Romney: 49.6% wins (49,647 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 400 4.9 44.0 44.0 0.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (81 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,919 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 319 --- 32.0 57.0 R+25.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 94.2% wins (94,213 wins ), Romney: 5.8% wins (5,787 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.5 47.0 47.0 0.0
SurveyUSA 03-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1222 2.9 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Gravis Marketing 03-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 1006 3.1 48.9 47.8 O+1.1
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1078 3.1 52.5 42.0 O+10.5


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 98.2% wins (98,244 wins ), Romney: 1.8% wins (1,756 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0
U NH 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 600 4.0 54.0 39.0 O+15.0
ARG 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 600 4.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,917 wins ), Romney: 0.1% wins (83 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Eagleton-Rutgers 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 645 4.0 56.0 39.0 O+17.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.5 54.0 43.0 O+11.0
PPP 02-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 778 --- 52.0 43.0 O+9.0
Rasmussen 27-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 500 4.5 51.0 40.0 O+11.0
WeAskAmerica 25-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 1258 2.9 50.9 40.6 O+10.3


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 04-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1486 2.5 62.0 34.0 O+28.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 4.9% wins (4,891 wins ), Romney: 95.1% wins (95,109 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 06-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1325 2.9 41.2 49.9 R+8.7
Rasmussen 02-Oct-12 02-Oct-12 500 4.5 47.0 51.0 R+4.0
SurveyUSA 29-Sep-12 01-Oct-12 573 4.2 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
ARG 28-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 600 4.0 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
PPP 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 981 3.1 48.0 48.0 0.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.5% wins (474 wins ), Romney: 99.5% wins (99,526 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 03-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 625 4.0 40.0 54.0 R+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Obama: 87.5% wins (87,489 wins ), Romney: 12.5% wins (12,511 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 05-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 808 3.5 45.3 44.1 O+1.2
CNN/OR 05-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 722 3.5 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
ARG 05-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 600 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Wenzel 04-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 1072 3.0 47.3 48.0 R+0.7
Rasmussen 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 49.0 O+1.0
WeAskAmerica 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 1200 3.0 46.0 47.0 R+1.0
Marist 30-Sep-12 01-Oct-12 931 3.2 51.0 43.0 O+8.0
PPP 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 897 3.3 49.0 45.0 O+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SoonerPoll 26-Jul-12 14-Aug-12 495 --- 29.0 58.0 R+29.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 94.5% wins (94,465 wins ), Romney: 5.5% wins (5,535 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 10-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 552 4.3 49.5 40.7 O+8.9


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 82.2% wins (82,177 wins ), Romney: 17.8% wins (17,823 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Susquehanna 04-Oct-12 06-Oct-12 725 3.7 47.3 45.4 O+1.9
Siena 01-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 545 4.2 43.0 40.0 O+3.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Brown U 26-Sep-12 05-Oct-12 496 4.4 58.2 32.3 O+25.9
WPRI 26-Sep-12 29-Sep-12 501 4.4 57.0 33.0 O+24.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 5.3% wins (5,273 wins ), Romney: 94.7% wins (94,727 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Marist 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 2131 2.1 40.0 46.0 R+6.0
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 587 4.0 38.0 53.0 R+15.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.6% wins (619 wins ), Romney: 99.4% wins (99,381 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 29-Aug-12 06-Sep-12 512 4.3 38.7 53.9 R+15.2


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.8% wins (7,779 wins ), Romney: 92.2% wins (92,221 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Vanderbilt Poll 02-May-12 09-May-12 752 4.0 40.0 47.0 R+7.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Texas Lyceum 10-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 1175 2.8 39.0 58.0 R+19.0
WPA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 1000 3.1 40.0 55.0 R+15.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Dan Jones 15-Jun-12 21-Jun-12 1222 2.8 26.0 68.0 R+42.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Aug-12 21-Aug-12 477 --- 62.0 25.0 O+37.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 50.6% wins (50,646 wins ), Romney: 49.4% wins (49,354 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Oct-12 07-Oct-12 725 3.7 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
WeAskAmerica 04-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 1200 3.0 45.0 48.0 R+3.0
Marist 30-Sep-12 01-Oct-12 969 3.1 48.0 46.0 O+2.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 96.5% wins (96,452 wins ), Romney: 3.5% wins (3,548 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 26-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 500 4.5 52.0 41.0 O+11.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.5% wins (1,506 wins ), Romney: 98.5% wins (98,494 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
R.L. Repass 22-Aug-12 25-Aug-12 401 4.9 38.0 52.0 R+14.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 96.7% wins (96,718 wins ), Romney: 3.3% wins (3,282 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 49.0 O+2.0
PPP 04-Oct-12 06-Oct-12 979 3.1 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
Marquette 27-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 894 3.3 52.8 42.3 O+10.5


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.