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Poll Analysis: Obama drops below 300 electoral votes

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Obama Romney
93.9% probability of winning 6.1% probability of winning
Mean of 295 electoral votes Mean of 243 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Monte Carlo analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 303 to 235 electoral votes. If an election was held then, we would expect Obama to win with a 95.7% probability, and Romney with a 4.3% probability. Since Obama’s probability is greater than 95%, standard statistical reasoning would call Obama’s lead “statistically significant.”

Today there were lots of new polls released.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Pepperdine U 07-Oct 10-Oct 831 3.4 54.0 32.9 O+21.1
CA SurveyUSA 07-Oct 09-Oct 539 4.3 53 39 O+14
CO SurveyUSA 09-Oct 10-Oct 614 4.0 47 48 R+1
CO Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1254 3.0 47 48 R+1
FL Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 750 4.0 47 51 R+4
FL ARG 08-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 46 49 R+3
FL Mason-Dixon 08-Oct 10-Oct 800 3.5 44 51 R+7
FL Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 988 3.1 48 47 O+1
IL Tribune WGN 04-Oct 08-Oct 700 3.7 55 36 O+19
MA PPP 09-Oct 11-Oct 1051 3.0 55 41 O+14
MI Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 500 4.5 52 45 O+7
MI Glengariff Group 06-Oct 08-Oct 600 4.0 49.0 42.3 O+6.7
MI Gravis Marketing 05-Oct 08-Oct 1122 3.2 46.0 44.4 O+1.6
MT PPP 08-Oct 10-Oct 737 3.6 41 52 R+11
MT MSU-Billings 27-Sep 30-Sep 477 5.0 35 49 R+14
NV PPP 08-Oct 10-Oct 594 4.0 51 47 O+4
NV Suffolk 06-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.4 46.8 45.2 O+1.6
NH ARG 09-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 46 50 R+4
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 04-Oct 08-Oct 604 4.0 51 40 O+11
NC Rasmussen 09-Oct 09-Oct 500 4.5 48 51 R+3
OH Rasmussen 10-Oct 10-Oct 750 4.0 48 47 O+1
OH Gravis Marketing 06-Oct 10-Oct 1313 2.7 45.1 45.9 R+0.8
OH Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 994 3.1 51 45 O+6
OH Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 47 46 O+1
PA Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 47 45 O+2
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 04-Oct 08-Oct 600 4.0 50 42 O+8
VA Rasmussen 11-Oct 11-Oct 750 4.0 47 49 R+2
VA Marist 07-Oct 09-Oct 981 3.1 47 48 R+1
VA Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 48 48 tie
VA Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1288 3.0 51 46 O+5
WI Pulse 08-Oct 08-Oct 1000 3.0 50 46 O+4
WI Quinnipiac 04-Oct 09-Oct 1327 3.0 50 47 O+3

Colorado turns red with the addition of two new polls that give Romney a +1% edge. Romney leads in five of seven current polls and has a 75% probability of taking the state now.

Three new Florida polls, also give Romney the edge. He leads Obama in five of the ten current polls, but by larger margins. Taken together, the simulation gives Romney a 76% chance of winning Florida now. Here’s the last three months:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Florida

Michigan voters seem content to supports Obama, if these three polls are representative. All five current polls go to Obama and they average out to a mid-single digit lead. The larger picture shows Obama with a pretty solid advantage:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Michigan

Two new Nevada polls give Obama weak leads. In fact, Romney doesn’t lead in any of the five current polls, although one poll had the candidates tied. Taken together, Obama get a 74% probability of taking the state now.

A new New Hampshire poll goes surprisingly strongly for Romney—by +4%. The previous poll was a tie, and the oldest current poll has Obama up by a comfortable +15%. But fair warning: That poll was taken before the presidential debate! New Hampshire is definitely worth watching at this point. Here is the rather abrupt change in a picture:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12New Hampshire

Only one new North Carolina poll that puts Romney over Obama by +3%. Romney leads in three of the six current polls and all three post-presidential debate polls.

Four new Ohio polls split 3 to 1 for Obama. The President leads in 8 of 12 current polls. If the election was held now, the model predicts Obama would win Ohio with a 91% probability.

Pennsylvania is even stronger for Obama, who takes both of the new polls. Obama leads in all five of the current polls, and would be expected to win Pennsylvania now with a 94% probability.

Three Virginia polls give three results: a tie and a win for each candidate. When the current polls. are combined, Obama takes 50.4% of the pooled “votes”. And that translates into a 69% probability of winning an election right now. Here is the story in picture form:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Virginia

Two new Wisconsin polls give Obama weak leads (+2% and +4%) over Romney. Obama’s lead has been cut from double digits just before the debate to about a +4% advantage. But the results give Obama a 98.4% probability of winning the state right now. The picture shows Obama with consistent lead in the state, if by a reduced margin:

ObamaRomney12Sep12-12Oct12Wisconsin

When these new polls are added to the mix, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama the win 93,914 times and Romney, 6,086 times (including the 901 ties). Obama receives (on average) 295 (-8) to Romney’s 243 (+8) electoral votes. If an election was held today, we’d expect Obama to win with a 93.9% (-1.8%) probability. Romney would have a 6.1% (+1.8%) probability of winning. By standard statistical reasoning, Obama’s lead is no longer “statistical significant.”

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2011 to 12 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Essentially, Mitt Romney rebounded back to where he was just after the Republican convention.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 294 electoral votes with a 4.80% probability
  • 295 electoral votes with a 4.21% probability
  • 289 electoral votes with a 4.12% probability
  • 288 electoral votes with a 4.06% probability
  • 282 electoral votes with a 3.45% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 2.95% probability
  • 281 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
  • 276 electoral votes with a 2.58% probability
  • 298 electoral votes with a 2.47% probability
  • 291 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 93.9%, Romney wins 6.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 295.1 (18.1)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 242.9 (18.1)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 294 (262, 333)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 244 (205, 276)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 145
Strong Obama 120 265
Leans Obama 29 29 294
Weak Obama 0 0 0 294
Weak Romney 1 1 1 244
Leans Romney 49 49 243
Strong Romney 90 194
Safe Romney 104

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.1 99.9
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 576 45.3 54.7 6.0 94.0
AR 6 1* 2006 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
CA 55 2 1218 60.3 39.7 100.0 0.0
CO 9 7 4942 49.3 50.7 24.9 75.1
CT 7 2 2108 55.6 44.4 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 94 88.3 11.7 100.0 0.0
FL 29 10 7487 49.4 50.6 24.2 75.8
GA 16 1* 439 38.5 61.5 0.0 100.0
HI 4 1* 1549 67.4 32.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1 637 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1* 736 43.5 56.5 0.5 99.5
IA 6 1 480 51.0 49.0 62.6 37.4
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.5 99.5
LA 8 1 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 5* 2886 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2* 588 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2* 538 54.6 45.4 93.8 6.2
MD 10 2* 1471 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
MA 11 4 2261 60.0 40.0 100.0 0.0
MI 16 5 3672 52.0 48.0 95.7 4.3
MN 10 1 900 55.2 44.8 98.7 1.3
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 1147 47.5 52.5 11.8 88.2
MT 3 2 1086 43.2 56.8 0.2 99.8
NE 2 1* 728 44.0 56.0 0.9 99.1
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.0 90.0
NE2 1 1* 352 50.0 50.0 49.2 50.8
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 5 3621 50.8 49.2 74.0 26.0
NH 4 3 1614 52.0 48.0 86.8 13.2
NJ 14 2 1163 57.5 42.5 100.0 0.0
NM 5 2 1225 55.1 44.9 99.3 0.7
NY 29 1* 1426 64.6 35.4 100.0 0.0
NC 15 6 4260 48.1 51.9 3.8 96.2
ND 3 1 588 42.5 57.5 0.4 99.6
OH 18 12 10141 51.0 49.0 91.2 8.8
OK 7 1* 431 33.4 66.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 499 54.9 45.1 93.9 6.1
PA 20 5 3081 52.0 48.0 93.7 6.3
RI 4 1 449 64.4 35.6 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 4.6 95.4
SD 3 1* 474 41.8 58.2 0.4 99.6
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.6 92.4
TX 38 2* 2090 41.1 58.9 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1* 1149 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 7 6356 50.4 49.6 69.2 30.8
WA 12 2* 1059 57.9 42.1 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.5 98.5
WI 10 5 4538 52.2 47.8 98.4 1.6
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page

Comments

  2. 2

    By standard statistical reasoning, Obama’s lead is no longer “statistical significant.”

    I’ve been waiting months to read that.

    RCP currently has 201 solid/safe Obama EVs and 156 EVs now categorized as toss-up.

    Meanwhile, Obama is still flailing over the LIbya thing, it’s looking as if Hillary might be fingered (bet it’s been decades since Bill’s done that to her) as the culprit on staffing in Benghazi, and Democrat nuclear war may ensue if this gets worse either pre- or post- debate.

    All in all, almost a perfect set-up for a good weekend, if one does not support Obama.

  3. 3

    Benjamin,

    Silver does, what amounts to, a proprietary analysis. For his “Nowcast” he throws in more information than just polls.

    Also, his electoral vote distributions in 2008 were way too over-dispersed, and seem to be now as well. His current distribution (for the Nowcast) has Obama winning somewhere from 180 to 360 electoral votes in an election held now.

    If I recall correctly (from 2008) Silver is using a Gaussian approximation to the binomial distribution processes, and since each state simulation requires drawing twice from a binomial (once to draw a proportion given a poll results, and again to draw the sample who vote for each candidate), the errors from Gaussian approximations may compound into an over-dispersed electoral vote distribution.

    I don’t use no stinkin’ approximations—it’s pure binomial distributions all the way for me.

    How’d we do? In 2008, my straightforward model predicted Obama would win with an average of 364 electoral votes. Nate Silver: 349.

    The actual result was 365. I was off by one because I didn’t break out Nebraska’s and Maine’s CDs as I do now.

    We both correctly called each state except for Indiana. And Indiana was damn close.

    (I discuss in more detail my predictions after the 2008 election here and here.)

    So my advice is to treat my results as more accurate, and Nate Silver’s as more entertaining….

  7. 7

    The CO poll results are one more reason that suburbs are evil. That’s the suburbs keeping Romney on top. I may have over estimated the power of the urbans and under estimated the suburbs in CO.

    In other news. The Republicans have put a whole lot of work into Nevada and aren’t getting much for it.

  8. 8

    @ 7

    The Republicans have put a whole lot of work into Nevada and aren’t getting much for it.

    One might say the same for Obama and any number of states he carried four years ago, eh?

    Florida, for instance.

  10. 10

    Bob @ 5,

    “Entertainment sells books.”

    It does if you can get the gig!

    “Gets you on Fresh Air, too.”

    Yep…Silver gets an A+ for self-promotion. I don’t begrudge him—this is what he does for a living.

    I, on the other hand, do this as a hobby in my spare time. No qualms…I’d MUCH rather have my job.

  11. 11

    Bob @ 8,

    “One might say the same for Obama and any number of states he carried four years ago, eh?”

    Of course…the difference is that Obama is leading, so his strategy seems to be working a bit better.

  12. 12

    @7 Michael, worry not. CO is going to end up with Team VICTORY. I spent last weekend in Denver doing GOTV. We got this.

  13. 13

    @12

    Awesome news. If you look at the polls over the course of the election there’s a lot more blue than red. But, it does look like the suburbs have more power in them than I thought.

    Colorado can’t be right. Michael keeps saying it’s solid blue.

    I don’t recall saying that it was solid blue. Colorado used to be a Republican state, then it was a swing state, now it’s a swing state that trends blue.

    @9

    evil? LOL

    I could have used a more accurate and less entertaining term, but since I come on here for fun I went for entertaining.

  14. 14

    Darryl,
    I find this fascinating. Folks like you and, of course, Nate run the numbers using the best models we can possibly generate, yet y’all know we’re in uncharted territory. For example, we’ve never had an African American running for re-election before.

    Here’s my hunch, this thing, as we look at it from the perspective of polling, is more like a tidal wave than a river.
    And if you can recall the video from the 2004 tsunami the beach was mysteriously missing the water as that first powerful wave built. We’re either at or near the nadir here. And the wave is going to be something to behold.

    Poll re-modeling will be very interesting after this.

  15. 15

    @13 Michael, CO is a purple state. The key for Team VICTORY is to turn out Denver and to work the gender gap. We’re doing that.
    Early voting starts in CO on Monday October 22nd. We will get out our vote.

    EDIT: We’ll get out our vote because we are prepared.

  16. 16

    I could have used a more accurate and less entertaining term, but since I come on here for fun I went for entertaining.

    10/12/2012 AT 5:47 PM

    no worries michael, I took it as tongue in cheek…on the other hand, perhaps you were channeling YLBoring or Carl…

  17. 17

    All here working for Team VICTORY who are made a tad bit nervous by Darryl’s numbers and Nate’s analysis, Darryl informs us “Four new Ohio polls split 3 to 1 for Obama. The President leads in 8 of 12 current polls.”

    This race has been and is made in Ohio. Without Ohio Rmoney has to run the table, and he ain’t going to do that. And why has Ohio remained so steadily in Obama’s camp while the other swings seem to be swinging more?

    Let Detroit Go Bankrupt

    That smell of shit is never coming off of Romney in Ohio.

  18. 18

    Darryl:

    So I was right to brag that I know the guy whose predictions of the 2008 elections were better than Nate Silver’s, and that it was because Silver makes more assumptions! And I was right to note that Silver, not you, is writing for NT Times because his stuff is more entertaining, not because it is more accurate. And your simulations still predict an Obama win with statistical confidence. AWESOME!

  19. 19

    Obummer is dropping…, dropping like a rock. [Think Pointer Sisters] As more polls come in after the BiteME Benghazi debacle, it will get worse! As people watch the Benghazi shuffle unfold, the less people will trust Obummer. Butt he’ll have his solid 47%ers.

  21. 21

    Where did that idiot greg go who kept posting the odds?? Hey greg, they are now at less than 2-1. Intratrade has Obama at less than 60% and he’s dropping like a rock daily.

    Where are you dude?

  24. 24

    Usual suspects and trolls,

    Just suppose that Romeny wins – just suppose for the sake of discussion. How will that really affect paying-off the $16 trillion we owe? Will a Romney win mean no more foreign adventures for which we cannot pay for, or will it be business as usual, borrowing ever-increasing amounts of money to finance an American overseas empire and the military machine to maintain it?

    Would a Romney win mean the end of the stupid War on Drugs and legalization of cannabis? Would a Romney win mean term limits for Senators, members of the House and Supreme Court? Would a Romney win mean a flat rate income tax and a simplified income tax that would eventually become a national sales tax? Would a Romney win mean cancellation of the Patriot Act and the distruction of the Department of Homeland Security and its sub-agencies?

    If a Romney win doesn’t mean any of those things, why should anyone vote for the guy? (Don’t worry, trolls – I won’t vote for Obama either.)

  25. 25

    Obama is not flailing over Lybia, Serial asshole… WE don’t give a rat’s ass about the embassies. Let ’em all burn.

  27. 27

    Greg @ 23

    Mitt is down 18 points on Intrade

    Too bad you aren’t more up on Intrade. You could have bought Mitt for as little as $1.90 per share (19%, based on $10.00 payout) on September 19, and now Mitt is trading at $4.03 as we speak …

  28. 28

    26. Dan Brown spews:
    Any embassy that has spooks in it is fair game.

    10/13/2012 AT 8:17 AM

    International Law does not appear to be your friend.

    fayle.

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