| Obama | Romney |
| 95.7% probability of winning | 4.3% probability of winning |
| Mean of 303 electoral votes | Mean of 235 electoral votes |
The previous analysis (three days ago) showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 342 to 196 electoral votes. I was using a 21 day “current poll” window, but promised a shorter one soon. I had previously decided to switch to a 14 day “current poll” window on the 10th of this month, and that is today.
So, for comparison, using a 14 day window three days ago we had Obama leading Romney 316 to 222 electoral votes, and a 99.2% probability of winning an election held then.
Over the past three days, we have 32 new polls that cover 20 states plus each of Maine’s two congressional districts. Most of the polls are post-first-debate. Here are the details:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| CO | ARG | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.0 | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| CT | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 45 | O+6 |
| FL | UNF | 01-Oct | 09-Oct | 653 | 3.5 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
| IA | Rasmussen | 07-Oct | 07-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| LA | Magellan Strategies | 02-Oct | 08-Oct | 2682 | 1.9 | 36 | 59 | R+23 |
| ME | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 400 | 4.9 | 50.8 | 36.8 | O+14.0 |
| ME1 | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 200 | — | 52.5 | 35.4 | O+17.1 |
| ME2 | Pan Atlantic SMS | 24-Sep | 28-Sep | 200 | — | 49.0 | 38.1 | O+10.9 |
| MA | WBUR | 05-Oct | 07-Oct | 501 | 4.4 | 52 | 36 | O+16 |
| MA | UMass | 02-Oct | 08-Oct | 437 | 5.0 | 55 | 34 | O+21 |
| MA | WNEU | 28-Sep | 04-Oct | 440 | 4.7 | 63 | 33 | O+30 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 04-Oct | 06-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 45 | O+3 |
| MI | Baydoun | 05-Oct | 05-Oct | 1122 | 2.9 | 49.3 | 45.8 | O+3.5 |
| MN | PPP | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 937 | 3.2 | 53 | 43 | O+10 |
| MT | PPP | 08-Oct | 10-Oct | 737 | 3.6 | 41 | 52 | R+11 |
| NV | Rasmussen | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
| NV | SurveyUSA | 03-Oct | 08-Oct | 1222 | 2.9 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| NH | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| NM | Rasmussen | 08-Oct | 08-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 54 | 43 | O+11 |
| NC | Gravis Marketing | 06-Oct | 08-Oct | 1325 | 2.9 | 41.2 | 49.9 | R+8.7 |
| ND | Mason-Dixon | 03-Oct | 05-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 40 | 54 | R+14 |
| OH | SurveyUSA | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 808 | 3.5 | 45.3 | 44.1 | O+1.2 |
| OH | CNN/OR | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 722 | 3.5 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| OH | ARG | 05-Oct | 08-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| OH | Wenzel | 04-Oct | 05-Oct | 1072 | 3.0 | 47.3 | 48.0 | R+0.7 |
| PA | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| PA | Susquehanna | 04-Oct | 06-Oct | 725 | 3.7 | 47.3 | 45.4 | O+1.9 |
| PA | Siena | 01-Oct | 05-Oct | 545 | 4.2 | 43 | 40 | O+3 |
| RI | Brown U | 26-Sep | 05-Oct | 496 | 4.4 | 58.2 | 32.3 | O+25.9 |
| VA | PPP | 04-Oct | 07-Oct | 725 | 3.7 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 09-Oct | 09-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 49 | O+2 |
The candidates split the Colorado polls, with +1% for Obama and a +4 for Romney. The current polls split three to three between the candidates, giving Romney a very slight edge—a 53% probability of taking the state if the election was now. This is a pretty significant shift as can be seen from the polling history over the past three months:
One new Florida poll has Romney up by +4%. Obama takes four of the six current polls and ends up with a slight edge of a 55% probability of winning now.
Obama gets another small Iowa lead, this time by +2%. He is down to an 85% probability of winning an election now. A week ago, that was a 99% probability….
Obama also holds a small +3% lead in the two new Michigan polls. That is a big drop from the double digit lead he has in the oldest current poll. Still, the evidence suggests Obama would take Michigan in an election now.
Minnesota gives Obama a double digit lead (+10%) in the only post-debate poll for the state.
Romney maintains his strong lead in Montana with this new poll.
Two very close Nevada polls taken together give Obama a very slight lead. Three of the four current polls were taken after the debate and show a very small Obama advantage. The oldest current poll gives Obama a +10%. Here is another view:
Today’s New Hampshire poll has Obama and Romney tied up. This new poll is the only post-debate poll of the three current polls.
New Mexico gives Obama a solid +11% lead over Romney. Essentially, this is as good as Obama was doing before the Debate.
In North Carolina, Romney leads Obama by a single-digit +8.7%. Romney takes three of the five current polls, including both post-debate polls. Romney has a 95% chance in the state for an election now.
Four new polls in Ohio split between Obama and Romney. Combined with four other current polls, Obama ends up with an 86% probability in an election now. Here’s the picture:
Obama keeps the lead in the three new Pennsylvania polls, albeit by smaller margins than he had pre-debate:
Obama leads in the latest Virginia poll. Combined with three other current polls we have a dead even race in the state. The polling history tells the post-debate story:
Obama maintains a weak +2% lead in Wisconsin, where his chances in the state have dropped to 97% for an election now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections using a 21 day window, Obama wins 95,666 times and Romney wins 4,334 times (and he get the 347 ties). Obama receives (on average) 303 (-13) to Romney’s 235 (+13) electoral votes. In an election held now, we could expect Obama to win with a 95.7% (-3.5%) probability of winning. That is, Romney surges to a 4.3% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2011 to 10 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.80% probability
- 291 electoral votes with a 3.08% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 2.85% probability
- 310 electoral votes with a 2.75% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 295 electoral votes with a 2.67% probability
- 320 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 294 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
- 311 electoral votes with a 2.52% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 95.7%, Romney wins 4.3%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 303.5 (20.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 234.5 (20.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 304 (263, 339)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 234 (199, 275)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 154 | |||
| Strong Obama | 82 | 236 | ||
| Leans Obama | 45 | 45 | 281 | |
| Weak Obama | 43 | 43 | 43 | 324 |
| Weak Romney | 9 | 9 | 9 | 214 |
| Leans Romney | 1 | 1 | 205 | |
| Strong Romney | 101 | 204 | ||
| Safe Romney | 103 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 404 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 576 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 5.5 | 94.5 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 2006 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3* | 2219 | 60.6 | 39.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 6 | 4374 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 47.1 | 52.9 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2 | 2108 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 94 | 88.3 | 11.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 6 | 4485 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 54.9 | 45.1 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 439 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1 | 1549 | 67.4 | 32.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 2* | 2277 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 736 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 1641 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 84.7 | 15.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2* | 1143 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 557 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 2548 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 350 | 58.0 | 42.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 59.7 | 40.3 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1 | 174 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 87.9 | 12.1 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 731 | 62.7 | 37.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 4 | 1715 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 3 | 2603 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 99.5 | 0.5 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1 | 900 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2203 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 8.1 | 91.9 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 685 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 1.7 | 98.3 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 728 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 1.2 | 98.8 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.5 | 89.5 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 352 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 49.6 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NV | 6 | 4 | 3598 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 94.2 | 5.8 | ||
| NH | 4 | 3 | 1608 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.2 | 1.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 613 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NM | 5 | 4 | 2831 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1* | 1426 | 64.6 | 35.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 5 | 3765 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 4.9 | 95.1 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1 | 588 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.5 | 99.5 | ||
| OH | 18 | 8 | 6350 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 87.5 | 12.5 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 431 | 33.4 | 66.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 499 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 94.5 | 5.5 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 1609 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 82.2 | 17.8 | ||
| RI | 4 | 2 | 900 | 63.9 | 36.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 3* | 4199 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 5.3 | 94.7 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 474 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 654 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 7.8 | 92.2 | ||
| TX | 38 | 2* | 2090 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 1149 | 27.7 | 72.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 415 | 71.3 | 28.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 4 | 3215 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.6 | 49.4 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 465 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 96.5 | 3.5 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 361 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 1.5 | 98.5 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2290 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Good work as usual. Next week will be even more interesting, if Biden bombs the debate, and Ryan impresses a few more people favorably. Or perhaps things will go the other way around. Never can tell, since politics is far less predictable than statistical science …
I noticed, yesterday and today, the Media’s insistence on the “horse race” scenerio (in which they have a vested interest) compels them to continually proclaim Romney as the “winner” of the last debate.
In truth, a debate isn’t a win/lose contest, it’s part of the process by which the electorate forms opinions.
But by constant repitition of the “win” scenario, the media is creating it’s own set of facts about the debate – apart from whether Romney lied in the debate, whether he has been caught in the lies, etc.
Anyway, tonight might be interesting. Too bad I have a class tonight and I can’t see it on TV. I’d like to see Ryan storm off the stage when Biden asks him to explain how tax cuts are going to allow him to meet all his other promises.
rhp6033,
“Too bad I have a class tonight and I can’t see it on TV. “
Dude! You’re in luck! The VP debate isn’t until tomorrow.
In fact, I’ll be putting together a special edition of Drinking Liberally at the Montlake Alehouse to watch the debate. I hope you can make it.
rhp6033 @ 2
I’d like to see Ryan storm off the stage when Biden asks him to explain how tax cuts are going to allow him to meet all his other promises.
Sort of like how Romney stormed off the stage last Wednesday when Obama asked him to explain how tax cuts are going to allow him to meet all his other promises? That was Obama’s most brilliant moment, in his totally spectacular ass-kicking of Romney?
RHPee clueless as ever,….
after reading drivel post after drivel post, I have to ask the question: how in the hell does RHPee function in the same world the rest of us do?
Darryl,
Are you willing to name your favorite charity?
Darryl again,
Would you be willing to comment on Suffolk University comments re: polling in FL, VA, NC?
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo.....a-cant-win
Thanks in advance.
@7 Is there anything in this statement of fact you fail to comprehend?
“This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass.” SurveyUSA’s Jay Leve
RE: 7. Serial Conservative
+1
…I mean, WTF?!?! That decision makes no sense to me whatsoever.
@9 Perhaps Suffolk is running low on funds?
“I think all three of those states are still toss-ups,” Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told us. “We’ve already polled Virginia since the debate and Obama was up by 3. I don’t agree with his assessment, and I don’t know why he would have made it without even conducting any polling after the debates.”
Gary Langer, who runs the ABC News/Washington Post poll, quipped tartly, “With that kind of foresight, we should find out who he likes in the fifth at Aqueduct.”
@4 – Shorter Pope: “Because Obama didn’t perform well in his debate, it’s stupid to believe that Biden will do well.”
In short, your logic sucks.
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
@ 8,9,10
I didn’t throw this out there as a taunt.
I’m wondering what his rationale is. My understanding, which may not be correct, is that Obama, as the incumbent, is polling too low for a bounce and the independents aren’t going to swing his way.
Bob,
I answered your question with a whole new post. Thanks for asking!
Bob @ 6,
“Are you willing to name your favorite charity?”
Sure…I take it this is in regard to your bet? If so, do both of you agree for me to name it now? Or should I do so after the election?
BTW: I’ll name a charity that is tax deductible and isn’t overly politically controversial. And I won’t name something that would benefit me (like a donation to the Anthropology Department’s graduate student research fund).
Are Bob and Darryl proposing to bet on something? Guys, please give us the details! We need some excitement on here!
Richard,
Not me. I’m just the person who decides what charity the loser donates to. I think.
Romney surges because the slobbering head up the Obummer ASS media narrative of agreeing with David Plouffe and David Axelrod has failed. People saw Romney for themselves. The $150 Million in negative advertizing has failed to portray Romney as the bad boogieman you libtards so willing drank as kook-aid. When Daily Kooks asks PPP to run a poll and their poll has Romney ahead it proves Romney is surging. Tonight (Thursday where Puddy is at) will be very telling for the polls! Indeed!
@ 15,16
MBS and I have a friendly bet on the outcome of the presidential election. Loser agrees to cough up to Darryl’s fave non-profit.
Predictably the NY Times comes to Obama’s rescue with a poll showing Obama is leading in Swing States significantly. Look at the polling data and judge for yourself whats up here and why it is so out of line with the other polls. The NY Times wouldn’t try to manipulated polling results, would they??
http://www.nytimes.com/interac.....sults.html
I can’t want for tonight’s VP debate.
Ryan will be prepared because he is always prepared.
Biden? He will suffer from over-preparation paralysis. I suspect a lot of stuttering and answers that don’t address the question.
But remember, Joe is the most experienced debater so he has a huge advantage.
A tie is a loss for the experienced Biden