This is the last Open Thread before election day. Please get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow. President is important, but so is literally everything else on the ballot. Here once again is how you can find your ballot dropbox location in King County. Get it in by 8:00 there.
I voted straight ticket Dem. I also voted for all the initiatives (as well as ST and the Seattle hotels one). That is surprising to me, as my first instinct on any given ballot measure is to vote no.
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On Friday, my analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a mean of 295 to 243 electoral votes. If the election had been held on Friday, Clinton would have won with a 94.2% probability.
There were only a few new polls released on Saturday. On Sunday a few more were released and I found a few missing from the database. We now have eleven new polls added since the last analysis. Of course, some polls will “age-out” on account of being more than ten days old.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 86,835 times and Trump wins 13,165 times (including the 2,645 ties). Clinton received (on average) 290 (-5) to Trump’s 248 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 86.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 13.2% probability of winning.
The biggest changes occur in ten states + Maine’s two Congressional districts. Five of these changes favor Clinton and six favor Trump.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06 Nov 2015 to 06 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The distribution takes on an interesting bimodal (or even trimodal) form. The major modes at 301 and 272 are caused by the fact that Florida is nearly a toss-up (272 + Florida’s 29 EVs = 301). If tonight was election night, an early call in Florida would tell us whether Clinton walks away with the election or whether it is going to be a long night!
The small variability around the two major modes is largely driven by the fact that New Hampshire is almost a toss-up.
That third mode to the right is largely driven by Ohio, which isn’t quit a toss-up at an 86% chance of going to Trump.
Exodus 25:15
Don’t ever remove the poles from the rings.
Discuss.
My analysis last Sunday showed control of the Senate to be a toss up at 48% probability for Democrats and 52% for Republicans. The expected outcome was a 49 to 51 split in favor of the Republicans.
Since then, I’ve added something exceeding 50 polls to the mix. As we saw in the Presidential race, the polls since last Sunday have tended to be more favoriable to Republicans.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1,762 times, and I’ll assume they control the Senate with the 10,293 ties. The Republicans control the Senate 87,945 times. This suggests Democrats have a 12.1% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 87.9% probability of controlling the Senate. So, indeed, the Democrat’s chances have fallen.
The Republican candidate has primarily gained in five states.
In Indiana, Democrat Evan Bayh’s once solid lead has vanished. Last Sunday, he had an 88.5% probability of defeating Todd Young (R). Today he would win with a 24.1% probability. The polling picture pretty much tells the story.
Sen. Roy Blunt (R) has strengthened his lead over Jason Kander (D) in Missouri. Last analysis Blunt was at a 77.8% probability of winning, but five new polls, including two ties and three with Blunt up, puts the probability at 92.8% today. On the other hand, two months ago, there was little evidence that Blunt would lose.
In Nevada, five polls aged out, and these mostly favored Catherine Cortez Mastro (D) over Joe Heck (R). Heck leads in four of the five current polls. Consequently, the Republican has gone from a 54% to a 93% probability of winning today.
The story is somewhat similar in New Hampshire. Four polls aged out, including one that had Maggie Hassan (D) up by +9 over Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). The new polling has mostly been more favorable to Ayotte. We now have ten current polls, six that favor Ayotte, two that favor Hassan, and two ties. The net result is that Ayotte has gone from a 67% chance to an 86% chance of winning an election today.
In Wisconsin, four polls aged out, including one with Russ Feingold leading Sen. Ron Johnson by +12%. The four current polls have Feingold up by +8%, +5%, +1%, and +2%. As a result, Feingold’s chances have dropped from 99.8% to 85.9%.
Democrats have made a couple of notable gains.
The North Carolina senate race largely favors Sen. Richard Burr (R) over challenger Deborah Ross (D). But the last couple of days have seen one tie and two polls that favor the Democrat. The result is that Burr has fallen from a 90% probability of winning last Sunday to an 86% chance today.
The biggest news for Democrats happens in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is being challenged by Democrat Katie McGinty. Seven polls aged-out, and these polls were pretty much a toss-up between the two candidates. Eight new polls have been added that largely favor McGinty. With the four carry-over polls, we now have two current polls that favor Toomey, eight that favor McGinty, and two ties. As a result, Pennsylvania has flipped from red to blue. McGinty was at a 45.8% probability of winning last Sunday, and she would win a race today with a 99.7% probability.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 45 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 47 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 1 | 1 | 48 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Leans Republican | 3 | 3 | 52 | |
| Strong Republican | 4 | 49 | ||
| Safe Republican | 45 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 1& | 320 | 23.4 | 76.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| AZ | 6 | 3957 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| AR | 2 | 1006 | 38.7 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 3 | 2372 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CO | 3 | 1681 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 99.2 | 0.8 | |
| CT | 1& | 872 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 13 | 9570 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| GA | 6 | 3788 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 1 | 823 | 29.5 | 70.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| IL | 3 | 1973 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 2 | 884 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 24.1 | 75.9 | |
| IA | 4 | 2548 | 38.1 | 61.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KS | 1 | 535 | 36.4 | 63.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 2 | 1323 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 1& | 794 | 34.6 | 65.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| MD | 1& | 614 | 66.6 | 33.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 7 | 5594 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 7.2 | 92.8 | |
| NV | 5 | 3356 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 6.6 | 93.4 | |
| NH | 10 | 6238 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 14.4 | 85.6 | |
| NY | 1 | 568 | 71.0 | 29.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 11 | 7216 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 15.3 | 84.7 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 3 | 1609 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OR | 1& | 558 | 62.7 | 37.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 12 | 9083 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| SC | 1& | 941 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 3 | 2031 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| UT | 3 | 1394 | 29.5 | 70.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VT | 1 | 559 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 2 | 1103 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WI | 4 | 2465 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 85.9 | 14.1 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Follow me (@hominidviews) on Twitter for Senate and Presidential polling and analysis updates.
A new SurveyUSA poll today sheds some light on the 2016 Washington gubernatorial election between Gov. Jay Inslee and Bill Bryant. The poll, taken from 31-Oct to 2-Nov surveyed 667 likely voters in Washington state (3.9 MOE). Inslee took 50% and Bryant, 43%.
There were 620 people who went for Inslee or Bryant. If we consider only these 620 people, Inslee receives 53.8% and Bryant 46.2%.
A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections finds that Inslee wins 903,218 times and Bryant wins 91,992 times. (Other or Undecided wins 4790 times.)
Inslee wins 90.8% of the simulated elections to Bryant’s 9.2%, suggesting that Inslee has about a 91% chance of winning, based only on the evidence contained in this poll.
Here is the distribution of votes from the simulated elections.
Of course, we have other polls in this election that shed additional light. Here is the polling over the past 8 months in the election suggesting that there has been almost no change in the race over the past eight months.
The relative stasis in the race suggests that we can combine the October Elway poll with the current poll. The Elway poll, taken 20-22 October, surveyed 502 individuals (4.5 MOE) and found Inslee leading 51% to 39%. If we repeat the previous analysis using both polls, Inslee wins 989,592 times and Bryant wins 9,805 times. The evidence from these two polls, suggests that Inslee will win with near certainty (99.0% probability).
The distribution of votes looks like this.
There you have it. If the election was held today, Inslee would beat Bryant. I don’t expect the race to change much between now and Tuesday, but it is wise to keep in mind that anything can happen in politics.
John Oliver: Segregation.
Your mission.
Matthew Filipowicz: How to protest the Bundy way!.
Meet the Alt Right:
Al Sharpton interviews Pres. Obama Part I.
Al Sharpton interviews Pres. Obama Part II.
How the Electoral College work?
Holy Shit! You’ve Got To Vote!
Conan: Election battle–Drumpf Tower versus Hillary’s Chappaqua home.
What is the difference between a Ponzi vs. a pyramid scheme.
Mental Floss: 26 scientific studies about animals.
The 2016 Sexual Predator Comedy Tour Staring Donald “Fuckface von Clownstick” Drumpf:
White House: West Wing Week.
Scariest moments of the 2016 election.
Late Show: FBI: Email Reader Unit.
John Batiste teaches you how to vote.
Weed, guns, and minimum wage: What else is the U.S. voting on?.
Farron Cousins: Emails reveal GOP plot to block North Carolina African Americans from voting.
Secret booth.
Tour the International Space Station.
Hillary Makes Herstory:
Seth Meyers: Polls are tightening….
Sam Seder: Why is the Left fighting a carbon tax in Washington State?.
David Pakman: GOP obstructionists threaten to keep Clinton Supreme Court seat empty.
PsychoSuperMom: Voter fraud is a fraud:
Samantha Bee interviews President Obama.
Young Turks: Chris Christie cronies guilty in Bridgegate scandal
You Make Me Feel.
Kids take time out from trick-or-treating to discuss the election.
Four likely outcome of the election.
Young Turks: How Southern states are rigging the election.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
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Yesterday the analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with, on average, 296 electoral votes to 242. And Clinton’s probablity of winning was 93.9% to Trump’s 6.1% chance.
Today there were 19 new polls released. To me, the one noticable thing about today’s batch is that they weren’t that bad for Clinton and not that bad for Trump. You can see the polls and my comments on my Twitter timeline (@hominidviews).
My impression was verified by today’s analysis. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 94,164 times and Trump wins 5,836 times (including the 950 ties). Clinton received (on average) 295 to Trump’s 243 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 94.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 5.8% probability of winning.
In other words, very little has changed from today’s poll dump. This suggests that Hillary’s slide we’ve seen for the past week has hit bottom. If so, she may even make gains in the final four days, as Obama did in 2012.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2015 to 04 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Even with the election at 0.3% chance for Trump in Darryl’s latest analysis, the momentum is scary. It can be overwhelming, but you are not a passive observer. This democracy is yours. You can, and please do, vote. You can volunteer with your state or local party or with whatever campaign makes you the most excited (they’re probably working together). Seriously, the election is in your hands!
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Yesterday’s analysis showed Donald Trump gaining a little over Sec. Hillary Clinton. She had a 99.7% probability of winning an election, and a mean electoral vote of 315.
Since yesterday’s analysis there have been 22 new polls released. The polls feel like they are a little more favorable to Trump. Indeed, now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 93,944 times and Trump wins 6,056 times (including the 1,017 ties). Clinton received (on average) 296 to Trump’s 242 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 93.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 6.1% probability of winning.
I should point out that there is one big change from yesterday. I am now using a 10-day poll window instead of a 14-day window. Doing this tends to nudge each candidate toward 50% probability of winning because sample sizes drop in each state. Additionally, the polls that are dropped are all pre-Comey polls. Clinton has slipped in the last two weeks, so we would expect a 10 day window to be worse for her than a 14 day window. The opposite happens when she is on an up-swing (see the time trend graph below to see both phenomena).
Something else of interest: four years ago tomorrow (Friday), I did an analysis that had Pres. Barack Obama up on Gov. Mitt Romney, 94.4% to 5.6% with a mean electoral vote total of 302 to 236. Essentially, Clinton is running at about the same strength now as Obama was in 2012. One difference, perhaps, is that Obama was starting to gain at this point, whereas Clinton seems to be losing EVs.
There are a few noteworthy shifts from my previous analysis.
Arizona loses two blue polls and a tie. Now all the current polls have small margins for Trump. His chances have gone up from 77% to 97%.
In Colorado, Trump doesn’t lead in any of the current polls. But the small margins for Clinton means that Trump moves from 5% to 21% chances of taking the state.
Florida switches from blue to red, primarily on account of (1) a bunch of pro-Clinton polls being dropped and (2) the addition of a Trump+4 Remington poll. Almost every Remington state presidentail poll I’ve seen this year looks like it is about 3 points skewed toward the Republican. And the firm is a Republican pollster. Still, it seems to be a real, valid pollster. In any case, we went from Clinton at 68% probability of winning to Trump at 58% in Florida.
Clinton slips a little bit in Maine, but this is entirely due to a smaller sample size from dropping one of three current polls.
The same thing happens in Maine’s 2nd CD, but now we are left with a pro-Trump and a pro-Clinton poll. Trump’s chances have increased from 44% to 57%. Earlier in the election season, Trump had a solid lead in ME-2.
In Nevada, we lost 6 polls, all but one favoring Clinton, and added one new pro-Clinton poll. This gives us four current polls: Clinton+2, Trump+6, Trump+6 and a tie. The Trump+4 poll is from Remington, by the way. This changes Clinton’s chances from 56% yeterday to only 13% today.
Over the last month, New Hampshire has seen a shift from strong Clinton to about even. Right now, Clinton would be expected to win NH with a 61% probability.
We have lots of new North Carolina polling. While most of the current polls favor Clinton, 3 of the 4 most recent ones favor Trump. One of them is, you guessed it, Remington. In any case, Clinton drops from 80% chance to 53% chance. A toss-up if there ever was one.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Nov-2015 to 03-Nov-2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
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The previous analysis last Thursday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton winning the election with near certainty with, on average, 333 electoral votes (EVs) to Donald Trump’s 205 EVs.
Since then, there have been 91 new new polls released that satisfy my inclusion criteria. So today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,714 times and Trump wins 286 times (including the 9 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 (-18) to Trump’s 223 (+18) electoral votes.
In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.7% (-0.3%) probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.3% probability of winning.
There are a few interesting changes since Thursday. Most notably, Alaska is suddently blue! The only current poll has Clinton up by +4%. Previous polls had Trump leading. The trend towards Clinton looks plausible:
New polls have turned Arizona back to red again after being blue for some days. Last Thursday, Clinton would have won AZ with a 75% probability. Today, Trump would win with a 77% probability. The trend toward Trump is convincing:
Florida had been leaning blue last Thursday. A bunch of new polls has painted a redder picture, although Clinton’s chances have only dropped from 84% to 68%. Here is the last week of polling:
In Indiana, a new Trump+11 poll has strengthened Trump’s chances from 89% to 98%.
Last week we had two Iowa polls that, together, favored Trump. Now, the only current poll is a tie between the candidates dropping Trump’s chances from 71% to 50%.
Some new Maine polls have changed little beyond the state’s 2nd congressional district. Trump had a weak lead last week and now Clinton leads in two of the three current polls. Trump had a 58% chance of taking the CD last week; now Clinton has a 57% chance of taking it.
In Minnesota, a new poll gives Clinton a +10 margin, increasing her chances of taking the state to 99%.
In rare gains for Clinton, a new Montana poll only has Trump up by +1% instead of double digits. This lowers Trump’s chances from 100% to 97.7%.
We have three new polls in Nevada, and two of them give Trump a slight lead. The result is that Clinton’s chances have dropped from 83% to 56%. The state is, essentially, tied now.
Since last week, eight new North Carolina polls have come and a few lost out for a total of 14 current polls. What do all they new polls reveal? Clinton still has an 80% chance of taking the state. Here is the last two months of polling:
Ohio has gone more strongly for Trump. Last Thursday, Trump had an 89% chance of taking the state. Today that is 98%.
Oregon went from three current polls to one new one with Clinton at +7%. Because the poll is small there is great uncertainty, and Clinton’s chances have dropped to about 90%.
Pennsylvania has had a big polling rush the last few days. It hasn’t made much difference. Clinton wins every one, even if by small margins.
Last week, Trump was badly slipping in Texas, with +3% and +4% polls. Now, we have two new polls with Trump at +7% and +12%. Consequently Clinton’s chances have dropped in Texas from 14% to 0.1%.
Something similar has happened in Utah—polls tanked for Trump last week. This week they rebound with Trump up last week from 87% to about 100%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2015 to 02 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
The election is coming to a close, and it’s kind of depressing. So let’s talk about something nicer:
Syphilis is at a 30 year high in King County. But the good news is you can get tested if you’re in one of the high risk groups. And you can get treated.
Only a week to go! Let’s celebrate with an evening of politics, conversation and catharsis over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!
